|09:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||Trade balance unadjusted||August||27.9||15.1|
|09:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y||September||0.4%||0.2%|
|09:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||Harmonized CPI||September||-0.4%||0.1%|
|09:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||Harmonized CPI, Y/Y||September||-0.2%||-0.3%|
|12:30 (GMT)||Canada||Foreign Securities Purchases||August||-8.5|
|12:30 (GMT)||Canada||Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)||August||7%||-1.4%|
|12:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Retail Sales YoY||September||2.6%|
|12:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Retail sales excluding auto||September||0.7%||0.5%|
|12:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Retail sales||September||0.6%||0.7%|
|13:15 (GMT)||U.S.||Capacity Utilization||September||71.4%||71.9%|
|13:15 (GMT)||U.S.||Industrial Production YoY||September||-7.7%|
|13:15 (GMT)||U.S.||Industrial Production (MoM)||September||0.4%||0.5%|
|13:45 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Williams Speaks|
|14:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index||October||80.4||80.5|
|14:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Business inventories||August||0.1%||0.4%|
|17:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count||October||193|
|20:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Net Long-term TIC Flows||August||10.8|
|20:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Total Net TIC Flows||August||-88.7|
The U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Thursday that crude inventories fell
by 3.818 million barrels in the week ended October 9. Economists had forecast a
drop of 3.387 million barrels.
At the same time, gasoline stocks decreased by 1.626 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decline of 1.607 million barrels. Distillate stocks tumbled by 7.244 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a drop of 2.096 million barrels.
Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. plunged by 500,000 barrels a day to 10.500 million barrels a day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.3 million barrels per day last week, down by 447,000 barrels per day from the previous week.
The report from
the New York Federal Reserve showed on Tuesday that manufacturing activity in
the New York region expanded modestly in early October.
According to the survey, NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index fell from 17.0 in September to 10.5 in October, pointing to a slower pace of growth than in September.
Economists had expected the index to come in at 15.0.
Anything below zero signals contraction.
According to the report, the new orders index increased five points to 12.3, and the shipments index rose four points to 17.8, indicating ongoing gains in orders and shipments. The employment index moved up five points to 7.2, indicating that employment levels grew. Meanwhile, delivery times were little changed, while unfilled orders and inventories fell. On the price front, the prices paid index was little changed at 27.8, a sign that input prices grew at the same pace as last month, while the prices received index held fairly steady at 5.3, indicating a small advance in selling prices for a second consecutive month.
Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia on Thursday, revealed the region's manufacturing activity picked
up in October.
According to the survey, the diffusion index for current general activity climbed from 15 in September to 32.3 this month. That was the highest reading since February.
Economists had forecast the index to decrease to 14.0.
A reading above 0 signals expansion, while a reading below 0 indicates contraction.
According to the report, the new orders index surged 17.1 points to 42.6, while the current shipments index jumped 9.9 points to 46.5. The current employment index, however, fell 3 points to 12.7 this month. Elsewhere, the survey’s price indicators suggest modest price pressure: the prices paid index increased 3.4 points to 28.5 and the prices received index decreased 4.4 points to 14.0.
U.S. stock-index futures fell on Thursday, as an unexpected increase in the U.S. weekly jobless claims heightened fears of a stalling economic recovery, while hopes for approval of the additional fiscal stimulus before the November 3 elections faded.
Today's Change, points
Today's Change, %
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALTRIA GROUP INC.
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ
American Express Co
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP
Cisco Systems Inc
Citigroup Inc., NYSE
Deere & Company, NYSE
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co
Exxon Mobil Corp
FedEx Corporation, NYSE
Ford Motor Co.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE
General Electric Co
General Motors Company, NYSE
Home Depot Inc
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.
International Business Machines Co...
International Paper Company
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase and Co
Merck & Co Inc
Procter & Gamble Co
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ
The Coca-Cola Co
Travelers Companies Inc
Twitter, Inc., NYSE
UnitedHealth Group Inc
Verizon Communications Inc
Wal-Mart Stores Inc
Walt Disney Co
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ
Citigroup (C) downgraded to Hold from Buy at DZ Bank; target $45
Department reported on Thursday the import-price index, measuring the cost of
goods ranging from Canadian oil to Chinese electronics, rose 0.3 percent m-o-m
in September, following a revised 1.0 percent m-o-m gain in August (originally
a 0.9 percent m-o-m rise). Economists had expected prices to advance 0.3
percent m-o-m last month.
According to the report, the September advance was driven by rising prices for nonfuel imports (+0.6 percent m-o-m), which more than offset lower fuel prices (-2.9 percent m-o-m).
Over the 12-month period ended in September, import prices fell 1.1 percent, due to a tumble in fuel prices (-25.2 percent), while more than offset an advance in nonfuel prices (+1.5 percent).
Meanwhile, the price index for U.S. exports increased 0.6 percent m-o-m in September, following an unrevised 0.5 percent m-o-m advance in the previous month.
Prices for both nonagricultural (+0.3 percent m-o-m) and agricultural (+2.7 percent m-o-m) exports contributed to the September increase.
Over the past 12 months, the price index for exports dropped 1.8 percent, reflecting a decline in prices of nonagricultural (-2.2 percent) exports, which more than higher agricultural export prices (+1.3 percent).
The data from
the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for
unemployment unexpectedly increase last week, as the U.S. labor market is struggling
to recover from its biggest shock in history, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits totaled 898,000 for the week ended October 10. That was the highest number since the week ended August 22.
Economists had expected 825,000 new claims last week.
Claims for the prior week were revised upwardly to 845,000 from the initial estimate of 840,000.
Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims rose to 866,250 from an upwardly revised 858,250 in the previous week.
Continuing claims declined to 10,018,000 million from an upwardly revised 11,183,000 in the previous week.
GBP fell against most other major currencies in the European session on Thursday as investors were looking for Brexit headlines as the EU leaders are set to meet in Brussels later in the day for a two-day summit, at which they will assess the prospects for a breakthrough in the trade negotiations with the UK. According to the media, the EU leaders will agree to extend the talks with the UK and to hold an emergency Brexit summit in mid-November.
The deputy political editor of Sky News, Sam Coates, tweeted that the UK's Brexit negotiating team is back from Brussels and its chief David Frost set to talk to PM Boris Johnson later today about whether negotiation should continue or there's no point and they should move to planning for no trade deal. "Spirits don't feel sky-high amongst those closest to the talks, " he added.
The UK’s PM Boris Johnson expressed disappointment over the lack of progress in talks on Wednesday, following a phone call between him and the presidents of the European Commission and European Council.
Meanwhile, Ireland's PM Micheal Martin said today that the EU and the UK can still reach a deal within the timeframe available to them.
Market participants also worried about the rising number of positive coronavirus tests and imposition of stricter restrictions. The UK's health minister announced that London will be moved into tier two of its three-tier lockdown system as cases in the UK's capital continue growing. The switch to tier two will come into effect at 00:01 Saturday.
Investors also digested the latest credit survey from the Bank of England (BoE), which showed an increase in the availability of secured credit between June and August. Meanwhile, availability of unsecured credit declined and is expected to decrease again in the fourth quarter.
Morgan Stanley (MS) reported Q3 FY 2020 earnings of $1.59 per share (versus $1.27 per share in Q3 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.28 per share.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $11.657 bln (+16.2% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $10.613 bln.
MS rose to $50.75 (+0.20%) in pre-market trading.
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) reported Q4 FY 2020 earnings of $1.02 per share (versus $1.43 per share in Q4 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.96 per share.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $34.746 bln (+2.3% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $34.364 bln.
WBA rose to $36.75 (+2.34%) in pre-market trading.
AUD/CNY tests June lows below 4.80 - Westpac
FXStreet notes that economists at Westpac believe AUD/CNY is likely to see fresh multi-month lows in the near-term but expect the pair to move back up to 5.05 by year-end on broad-based USD weakness.
“Short-term, AUD/China should remain sensitive to swings in sentiment, with plenty of uncertainty remaining over the US election and myriad other sources of volatility, so fresh multi-month lows seem likely.”
“By year-end however, we expect US dollar trend depreciation to have resumed. This tilts AUD/China higher once again, returning to around 5.05.”
FXStreet notes that EUR/GBP has seen an aggressive rejection of its downtrend from mid-September at 0.9123 for the completion of a larger bearish “outside day” and analysts at Credit Suisse look for this to finally clear the way for a more sustained decline to 0.8982.
“The choppy tone remains as EUR/GBP quickly reverses Tuesday’s strength after rejecting its downtrend from mid-September, now at 0.9123 for the completion of a larger bearish ‘outside day’ and a close below the 55-day average.”
“We look for the pair to finally clear the way for a more sustained decline to 0.8982 next, the 50% retracement of the uptrend from late April, ahead of 0.8956 and then more important support from the trend channel low at 0.8930/29, where we would expect fresh buyers to show.”
“Bigger picture, below 0.8874/64 remains needed to mark a more important top.”
RTTNews reports that according to the Credit Conditions Survey from the Bank of England, British lenders expect loan defaults to rise in the fourth quarter.
Lenders reported that the default rates on secured loans to households remained unchanged in the third quarter but was expected to increase in the fourth quarter.
At the same time, default rates for total unsecured lending decreased in the third quarter but were forecast to climb in the quarter ahead.
Defaults rates on loans to corporates remained unchanged for small businesses in the third quarter but increased for medium and large businesses. These balances were expected to increase for all business sizes in the fourth quarter.
The quarterly survey was conducted between September 1 and 18.
FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group forecast USD/CNH to keep the 6.6850-6.7850 range well in place in the next weeks.
Next 1-3 weeks: “USD plunged to a low of 6.6788 last Friday (09 Oct) before staging a dramatic turnaround on Monday. The sharp bounce coupled with break of strong resistance levels suggests that a short-term bottom is in place. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase. From here, USD could trade between 6.6850 and 6.7850 for a period of time.”
Reuters reports that the Office for National Statistics survey showed that British businesses said 9% of their workforce remained furloughed with less than a month to go before the closure of the government's job retention scheme.
ONS said 9.1% of the workforce was furloughed during the two weeks to Oct. 4, down only marginally from the previous two-week period.
After the end of this month, furlough-type arrangements will only be available to businesses forced to close temporarily because of local or national coronavirus restrictions.
FXStreet reports that according to economists at Westpac, Brexit progress could lift EUR/USD to 1.20.
“Increasing COVID-19 cases in Eurozone countries are heightening risks of tighter restrictions and therefore further economic costs and fiscal strains. The coming month will be critically important in determining whether infections plateau or whether Europe faces a harsh economic winter.”
“The current EC Summit (15th-16th Oct) agenda is set to discuss progress on COVID-19 health measures and then EU/UK Brexit talks. The fragility of the regional recovery means that a further hit from a disorderly imposition of trade tariffs and restrictions on UK goods is likely to heighten EC discussion over finding some compromise with UK that is politically acceptable given that UK is the third-largest trading partner for EU-27 (after US and China).”
“EUR/USD is likely remain within its recent 1.15-1.20 unless Brexit progresses or COVID-19 counts accelerate or subside.”
Bloomberg reports that according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. the Reserve Bank of Australia may buy up to A$100 billion of bonds in a renewed effort to revive the nation’s coronavirus-battered economy,
A new “quantity-based” easing program is likely after RBA Governor Philip Lowe said Thursday that the nation’s 10-year yields were higher than “almost everywhere in the world, according to JPMorgan. Goldman sees an 80% chance for an easing package at the central bank’s Nov. 3 meeting.
“The Governor’s speech deemphasized short-end rates, with the focus clearly on QE and how lower longer-dated bond yields would affect the economic recovery,” Tom Kennedy, senior economist at JPMorgan in Sydney, wrote in a note.
JPMorgan said it now expects the RBA to buy A$75 billion to A$100 billion of sovereign and state bonds over a year, implying weekly average purchases of between A$1.4 billion to A$2 billion.
FXStreet reports that analysts at HSBC think the need for monetary easing and fiscal support should be ultimately positive for the yellow metal.
“The IMF reiterated its forecast of a 2020 global contraction of 4.4%. This is an improvement over a 5.2% contraction predicted in June. Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, said some $12 T in fiscal support and unprecedented monetary easing from central banks had helped to limit the damage from the pandemic but support must be maintained.”
“The wholesale drop across the precious metals complex seems a little overdone – although not entirely unwarranted. The problems cited by the IMF’s WEO still require monetary easing and fiscal spending to continue, which is ultimately positive for gold.”
eFXdata reports that Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a bearish bias on CHF.
"While we do not doubt the SNB’s preparedness to prevent policy differentials from diverging in order to keep the CHF capped, the very least the central bank should continue to do is intervene more aggressively, with such conditions likely to prove sufficient to put a floor below the EUR/CHF cross. Firm deflation risk enables this," CACIB notes.
"All in all, we stay of the view that the pair faces gradual upside with elevated speculative CHF long positioning keeping the risk for position squaring-related CHF downside towards year-end firmly intact," CACIB adds.
FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at OCBC Bank sees the EUR/USD heading towards 1.17.
“Market participants, especially the equity guys, may finally price out the odds of US fiscal stimulus in the coming weeks. This should put a pause on any risk-on bias as the market runs out of positives for now. Moreover, the virus situation in Europe continues to worsen. Do not rule out a more defensive tilt as we approach the US elections, providing some support for the USD.”
“A near-term top may have been seen at around 1.1830, as the focus in Europe shifted to the containment of the second-wave virus spread.”
|00:00||Australia||Consumer Inflation Expectation||October||3.1%||3.4%|
|00:30||Australia||Changing the number of employed||September||129.1||-35||-29.5|
|04:30||Japan||Tertiary Industry Index||August||-0.5%||0.8%|
|06:30||Switzerland||Producer & Import Prices, y/y||September||-3.5%||-3.1%|
In today's Asian trading, the US dollar fell slightly against the euro and rose against the yen.
Traders continue to follow the discussion of new economic incentives in the US. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin expressed doubts about the possibility of adopting a new stimulus package before the presidential election. "At the moment, it will be difficult to accept anything before the election and implement it," he said.
Traders are focused on the fate of the trade deal between London and Brussels. Earlier, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that he sees no hope for a deal if an agreement is not reached before the EU summit, which starts on October 15. However, the UK's chief negotiator, David Frost, believes that an agreement is still possible in the coming weeks.
Data on Australia and China were also in focus. Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in September from 6.8% in the previous month, the Australian Bureau of statistics said. Analysts had expected an increase to 7.1%.
Meanwhile, inflation in China slowed to its lowest level since February 2019 in September, amid a marked slowdown in the growth rate of food prices. Consumer prices increased 1.7% year-on-year last month after rising 2.4% in August. Analysts on average predicted an increase of 1.8%.
According to the report from INSEE, in September 2020, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.5% over a month, after –0,1% in August 2020. Service prices declined sharply (–1.5% after +0.3% in August). Those of energy (–0.7% after +0.3%) and food prices (–0.5% after +0.2%) decreased and those of tobacco were stable. Finally, manufactured product prices rebounded strongly (+1.6% after a 1.2% drop in the previous month).
Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices dropped by 0.2% in September, after –0.5% in August.
Year on year, consumer prices were stable, after +0.2% in the previous month. This is the result of a slowdown in service prices and an accentuated decline of those of energy. The prices of tobacco rose less, year on year, than in August (+13.7% after +13.8% in August). Finally, the food prices and those of manufactured product prices evolved at the same rate as in the previous month.
Year on year, core inflation increased, in September, by 0.5% year on year, at the same rate as in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell by 0.6% over a month, after –0.1% in the previous month; year on year, it was stable, after +0.2% in August
According to the report from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the Producer and Import Price Index rose in September 2020 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 98.0 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for scrap as well as for basic metals and semi-finished metal products. Compared with September 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 3.1%.
In particular, higher prices for scrap were responsible for the increase in the producer price index compared with the previous month. Raw milk and fresh vegetables also became more expensive.
The import price index registered lower prices compared with August 2020, particularly for petroleum and natural gas. Prices also fell for diesel, leather and travel goods, heating oil and passenger cars. In contrast, higher prices were observed for non-ferrous metals and products made therefrom, gasoline and wearing apparel.
FXStreet reports that Goldman Sachs analyst Sven Jari Stehn said there could be drama at the EU summit over Brexit but then a thin Brexit trade deal could likely be reached by early November.
"Neither the UK Prime Minister’s 15 October deadline nor the European Commission’s 31 October deadline constitutes a hard stop on Brexit negotiations,"
"This week's European Council may well feature an additional dose of political drama."
"We think the perceived probability of 'no deal' will persist through the course of October. But our core view remains that a 'thin' zero-tariff/zero-quota trade agreement will likely be struck by early November."
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1755
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 6 is 52058 contracts (according to data from October, 14) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1800 (4009);
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3016
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 6 is 31525 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3950 (3694);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 6 is 22778 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2050 (2420);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.72 versus 0.72 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 14
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
RTTNews reports that data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed China's consumer price growth slowed in September on easing food price inflation and producer prices continued to ease.
Consumer prices advanced 1.7 percent on a yearly basis in September, slower than the 2.4 percent increase seen in August. This was also slower than the economists' forecast of 1.8 percent.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, held steady at 0.5 percent in September.
Driven by a slowdown in pork price inflation, food prices grew 7.9 percent following 11.2 percent rise in August.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices gained 0.2 percent versus a 0.4 percent rise a month ago.
Another report from NBS showed that producer prices were down 2.1 percent annually after easing 2 percent in August. Economists had forecast an annual decrease of 1.8 percent.
|Raw materials||Closed||Change, %|
|Index||Change, points||Closed||Change, %|
|00:00 (GMT)||Australia||Consumer Inflation Expectation||October||3.1%|
|00:30 (GMT)||Australia||Unemployment rate||September||6.8%||7.1%|
|00:30 (GMT)||Australia||Changing the number of employed||September||111||-35|
|01:30 (GMT)||China||PPI y/y||September||-2%||-1.8%|
|01:30 (GMT)||China||CPI y/y||September||2.4%||1.8%|
|04:30 (GMT)||Japan||Tertiary Industry Index||August||-0.5%|
|06:30 (GMT)||Switzerland||Producer & Import Prices, y/y||September||-3.5%|
|06:45 (GMT)||France||CPI, y/y||September||0.2%||0.1%|
|06:45 (GMT)||France||CPI, m/m||September||-0.1%||-0.5%|
|12:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Continuing Jobless Claims||October||10976||10700|
|12:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey||October||15||14|
|12:30 (GMT)||U.S.||NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index||October||17||15|
|12:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Initial Jobless Claims||October||840||825|
|12:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Import Price Index||September||0.9%||0.3%|
|13:45 (GMT)||Canada||Gov Council Member Lane Speaks|
|15:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Crude Oil Inventories||October||0.501||-3.387|
|16:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||ECB President Lagarde Speaks|
|21:00 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks|
|21:30 (GMT)||New Zealand||Business NZ PMI||September||50.7|
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