James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, notes that the ISM index rose, but remains well below the key 50 break-even level so it merely tells us the sector is contracting at a slightly slower rate.
"The ISM manufacturing index has risen to 43.1 in May from 41.5 in April and all the important sub-components – production, new orders and employment – have improved, but they continue to tell a very painful story. One that suggests manufacturing output will fall by more than 20% with investment in the sector likely to contract through much of the rest of the year."
"During the Global Financial Crisis the headline ISM index bottomed at 34.5 (December 2008) so hitting a low of “only” 41.5 in April doesn’t seem all that terrible. In the current crisis though the headline is being artificially inflated by the supplier delivery times component, which even after dipping back this month, is still up at 68.0."
"Production improved to 33.2 from 27.5 and new orders rose to 31.8 from 27.1, but both are still massively away from the break-even 50 level. They are therefore telling us that the sector is experiencing a huge contraction, it just isn't quite as precipitous a drop as in April when the lockdowns were at their peak. The weakness in new orders is suggesting very bad news for investment spending within the US economy."
"Manufacturers are being squeezed by both a collapse in demand and disrupted supply chains. With profitability under immense pressure firms are increasingly looking to cut costs, which also means more bad news for the jobs market. The ISM employment component rose to 32.1 from 27.5, but has only been lower on a handful of occasions over the past 70 years."
"With investment set to contract sharply over the next few quarters and manufacturing unemployment set to rise further this will certainly limit the economy’s ability to bounce back strongly. We continue to doubt that the 13% or so peak-to-trough decline in US GDP we forecast will be fully recovered before the end of 2022."
Department announced on Monday that construction spending fell 2.9 percent
m-o-m in April after a revised flat m-o-m reading in March (originally a 0.9
percent m-o-m gain). That was the largest decline in construction spending
since October 2018.
Economists had forecast construction spending decreasing 6.0 percent m-o-m in April.
According to the report, spending on private construction declined 3.0 percent m-o-m, while investment in public construction dropped 2.5 percent m-o-m.
On a y-o-y basis, construction spending rose3.0 percent in April.
A report from
the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday the U.S.
manufacturing sector’s activity contracted in May, albeit at a slower pace than
The ISM's index of manufacturing activity came in at 43.1 percent last month, up 1.6 percentage points from the April reading of 41.5 percent, which was the lowest since April 2009. Economists' had forecast the indicator to increase to 43.0 percent.
A reading above 50 percent indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 percent indicates contraction.
According to the report, the New Orders Index stood at 31.8 percent, an advance of 4.7 percentage points from the April reading, while the Production Index registered 33.2 percent, up 5.7 percentage points compared to the April reading, the Backlog of Orders Index posted 38.2 percent, a gain of 0.4 percentage point compared to the April reading, and the Employment Index came in at 32.1 percent, an increase of 4.6 percentage points from the April reading. Meanwhile, the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 68 percent, down 8 percentage points from the April figure, still elevating the composite PMI.
Timothy R. Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, noted that comments from the panel were cautious regarding the near-term outlook, as the coronavirus pandemic impacted all manufacturing sectors for the third straight month. “May appears to be a transition month, as many panelists and their suppliers returned to work late in the month. However, demand remains uncertain, likely impacting inventories, customer inventories, employment, imports and backlog of orders. Among the six biggest industry sectors, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products remains the only industry in expansion. Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Fabricated Metal Products continue to contract at strong levels,” said Fiore. He also added that the past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI for May (43.1 percent) corresponded to a 0.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.
report by IHS Markit revealed on Monday the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit final
U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 39.8 in May, up
from April’s recent low of 36.1 and unrevised from the earlier released “flash”
figure”. The reading signaled second-steepest deterioration in manufacturing
operating conditions since April 2009.
Economists had forecast the index to stay unrevised at 39.8.
According to the report, production and new orders fall substantially due to weak client demand amid the COVID19 outbreak. Employment dropped substantially amid signs of excess capacity. In addition, lower input buying and weaker overall demand conditions put pressure on suppliers to lower their prices. Consequently, input costs fell again, in turn helping manufacturers to cut their output charges at a record pace as firms sought to remain competitive.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit noted: “With increasing numbers of companies restarting production, we should see some improvements in the output trend in coming months, and it was reassuring to see signs of the downturn already starting to ease in May, suggesting April was the eye of the storm as far as the production collapse is concerned.”
|08:30||United Kingdom||Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing||May||32.6||40.7||40.7|
USD fell against other major currencies in the European session on Monday as risk appetites improved as the U.S. President's speech signaled no termination of the phase-one trade agreement and the latest PMIs suggested a recovery in manufacturing activity in some countries.
The U.S. President Donald Trump's speech on Friday was heated in rhetoric, but it lacked details on what measures would be taken against China for new national security laws in Hong Kong. At the same time, Trump did not signal that the U.S. would be pulled out of the phase one trade deal reached earlier this year or additional tariffs would be imposed on China's goods. Trump said that the U.S. would no longer grant Hong Kong special status on trade and instead would apply the same restrictions to the territory it had in place with China.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the situation, that China's state-owned agricultural companies Cofco and Sinograin were ordered to pause purchases of some U.S. farm goods including soybeans, which could threaten phase one trade deal.
The latest PMI data suggested the contraction in manufacturing output may have found a bottom in some countries. In China, the Caixin/Markit PMI showed an unexpected improvement in factory activity last month - from 49.4 in April to 50.7 in May - due to easing of restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. That was the highest reading since January. In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI recovered somewhat in May - to 39.4 from April’s record low of 33.4, although factory activity still contracted considerably. Japan and South Korea, however, recorded the steepest declines in activity in more than a decade.
Investors, however, remained cautious over social unrest over police brutality in the U.S. Protests over the death of George Floyd, who died after being restrained by Minneapolis police on May 25, have raged for most of the weekend in several U.S. cities, with National Guard troops called in to at least 15 states around the country and curfews imposed in at least a dozen major metropolitan areas in an effort to keep the peace.
USD/CNH seen higher at 7.25 over the next three months – Goldman Sachs
FXStreet reports that analysts at Goldman Sachs predict Yuan to fall further below 7.00 against the US dollar over the three-months, as US-China tensions are not seen subsiding soon.
“USD/yuan to 7.25 over the three months vs. prior forecast of 7.15."
"Out 6 months see some recovery to 7.15 vs. prior 7.05."
"12 months forecast now seen at 7.00 vs. 6.90 previously."
"Uncertainty over U.S. policy toward China."
"Disputes cover a range of issues that are unlikely to be resolved soon."
"PBOC showing some tolerance for gradual currency depreciation."
"We do not expect recent bilateral tensions to escalate to 2019 levels, with spill overs to markets well beyond" non-Japan Asia.”
FXStreet reports that the Citibank analysts, in their latest client note, warned about the impending risks of the coronavirus pandemic that the market has failed to price-in, thus far.
“We definitely feel that the markets are way ahead of reality. We really are telling every client to tap the market if they can because we think the pricing now couldn't get any better."
"Second quarter … we start seeing the pain, and the collateral effects of that, we think this is going to be much tougher than it looks."
"Markets are pricing a V [shaped recovery], everyone's coming back to work, and this is going to be fine."
"Don't think it's going to be that easy quite frankly.”
Reuters reports that no tourists travelled to Spain in April because of the coronavirus lockdown, dragging income from the key sector down by just about half in the first four months of the year, the National Statistics Office (INE) said on Monday.
Tourists only spent 11.7 billion euros between January and April, 48% lower than a year ago, the INE said.
Spain, which entered into lockdown mid-March to contain the pandemic, welcomed only 10.58 million tourists in these four months, half of the visitors that travelled there during the same period last year.
Tourism normally accounts for over 12% of gross domestic product in the world's second most visited country after France.
FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group now believe USD/CNH has moved into a consolidative range.
24-hour view: “The sharp and rapid drop in USD last Friday came as a surprise as it closed at 7.1340 before extending its decline this morning. The swift decline appears to have scope to extend lower towards 7.1150. Resistance is at 7.1400 followed by 7.1500.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “The sudden sharp sell-off in USD last Friday took out our ‘strong support’ level at 7.1400. The break of the ‘strong support’ indicates that the positive phase in USD that started on Thursday (28 May, spot at 7.1800) ended much sooner than expected. The sharp but short-lived advance has resulted is a mixed outlook. From here, USD could trade sideways between 7.0950 and 7.1750 for a period.”
CNBC reports that China is seeing a strong economic rebound following a slump spurred by the lockdown to curb the coronavirus’ spread, but don’t count on that being the case for other major economies around the world, says IMA Asia’s Richard Martin.
“That’s a V-shaped recovery you see in the (Purchasing Manager’s Index), down sharply in February, back up in March, still strong in April, back up a little above 50 in May,” Martin, who is managing director at the firm, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Monday.
Martin’s comments came after recent data showed China’s manufacturing sector expanding in May.
Among other markets in Asia, Martin said Vietnam and Taiwan could pull off a similar economic recovery.
Elsewhere, however, he warned that everyone “goes down and stays down for two or three months before they come back up.”
“That will be the story we see in Europe and the United States, and people still haven’t adjusted to that,” Martin said. “They think once Covid-19 dies down, that’s the end of the game. But it’s not.”
At present, Martin said the world is currently undergoing a “transition” toward a “new normal.”
“We will see cities, we will see states and provinces and even national governments switch lockdown on and off as they get worried about second waves of virus infection,” Martin said. “We’ll also see a lot of deflation. Not enough demand for goods and massive restructuring in some core industries.”
Citing his discussions with large multinational companies, he said the firms have talked about the third quarter being a period where they will “start rationalizing their operations and letting staff go.”
“The Covid-19 wave, the first wave dies down, but we now have two or three economic waves: Unemployment, bankruptcy, default, which are gonna build through the end of the year,” Martin said.
FXStreet reports that in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY is likely to move within a consolidative mood in the next weeks.
24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that ‘the consolidation phase appears to be coming to an end and USD could drop towards 107.20’. We added, ‘the next support at 107.00 is unlikely to come into the picture’. While our view was not wrong as USD dropped to 107.06, the subsequent robust rebound came as a surprise (USD touched 107.89 during late-NY hours). The rapid swings have resulted in a mixed outlook and for today, USD could trade in a choppy manner between 107.20 and 108.00.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “USD came close to the bottom of our expected 107.00/108.00 range last Friday (29 May) before rebounding quickly. For now, we continue to hold the same view that USD is likely to trade sideways. As highlighted last Wednesday (27 May), only a daily closing out of the expected 107.00/108.00 range would suggest the start of a more sustained movement in USD.”
According to the report from IHS Markit/CIPS, the rapid downturn in the UK manufacturing sector continued during May, as the public lockdowns, company shutdowns and social distancing measures mandated to combat the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) caused further disruption. Output, new orders and employment contracted at some of the fastest rates during the 28 year survey history, albeit less sharply than the records set in April.
The seasonally adjusted PMI rose to 40.7 in May, up from a record low of 32.6 in April. Despite the increased level of the PMI, it still signalled a marked deterioration in overall operating conditions. The headline index is at its seventh-lowest level ever and at depths unseen outside of the current pandemic and the global financial crisis of 2008-09. May 2020 survey data were collected between 12-26 May.
The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic were felt across the manufacturing sector in May. Rates of contraction in output, new orders and new export business were among the steepest in the survey history across consumer, intermediate and investment goods producers alike. That said, rates of decline eased from the survey records of the prior month.
Manufacturing employment fell for the fourth successive month in May, as the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic led companies to reduce staff headcounts. Although easing since April, the rate of decline was still the second-sharpest on record.
The ongoing pandemic and uncertainty about the path ahead continued to weigh on business sentiment in May. Although rising to a three-month high, confidence remained downbeat by the historical standards of the survey. Companies still expect to see output rise during the next 12 months, however, forecasting that market conditions would recover some lost ground as lockdowns ease and clients reopen.
Chinese buyers are also said to have cancelled an unspecified number of US pork orders, although private companies have not been told to halt imports yet, according to the source.
According to the report from IHS Markit, there was a noticeable easing in the recent downturn in the euro area manufacturing sector during May, as evidenced by a six-point rise in the IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI to a two month high. However, at 39.4, compared to April’s survey record low of 33.4, the index still indicated a considerable rate of contraction in operating conditions. Despite being generally looser across the region compared to April, government restrictions designed to limit the spread of the global coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continued to severely hamper the sector. Latest data indicated that all market groups continued to record notable deteriorations in operating conditions, led by investment goods producers.
There was a general improvement in PMI readings across the region in May, although all countries continued to experience further deteriorations in operating conditions.
After April’s extreme and survey-record contractions, both production and new orders placed with euro area manufacturers fell at noticeably slower rates in May. However, the net reductions remained severe, in line with ongoing restrictions in place on economic activity. Export sales suffered a similar fate, with the latest data showing the second sharpest fall in 23 years of data collection.
Faced with ongoing contractions in orders and output, manufacturers continued to cut back on their purchasing in May. Latest data showed another considerable reduction in purchasing activity, although this did little to alleviate supply-side challenges.
Finally, confidence about the year ahead improved to a three-month high in May but remained inside negative territory as worries about the longer-term impacts on economic activity of the COVID-19 pandemic weighed on sentiment.
FXStreet reports that AUD/USD remains on track to reach the 0.6770 region in the short-term horizon, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group.
24-hour view: “We expected AUD to consolidate within a 0.6580/0.6670 range last Friday. AUD subsequently popped to a high of 0.6683 before easing off to close at 0.6674 (+0.55%). The strong price action upon opening this morning suggests AUD could strengthen further from here. That said, AUD may not be able to maintain a toe-hold above 0.6735 (next resistance is at 0.6770). Support is at 0.6670 followed by 0.6650.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Friday (29 May, spot at 0.6630) we highlighted that AUD ‘could ill-afford to consolidate at these overbought levels or risk of a top would increase quickly’. AUD subsequently eked out a fresh high of 0.6683 before closing at 0.6674 (+0.55%). The strong price action upon opening this morning has resulted in an improvement in momentum but in view of the severely overbought conditions, AUD has to post a daily closing above 0.6705 before further sustained advance towards 0.6770 can be expected. On the downside, a breach of 0.6605 (‘strong support’ level was at 0.6550 last Friday) would indicate that the positive phase that started 2 weeks ago (see annotations in chart below) has run its course.”
US action interferes with internal affairs, undermines bilateral relations
US purposely oppressing Chinese firms for no good reason
Firmly opposes the actions by the US
Reaffirms that no foreign country has any right to interfere in HK
China will have firm countermeasures on US actions
Reiterates that the US should 'correct its mistakes'
Urges the US to stop 'going down the wrong path'
China will resolutely defend its own security, development interests
FXStreet reports that Cable could extend the upside momentum to the 1.2465 level if 1.2380 is cleared, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group.
24-hour view: “We expected GBP to strengthen last Friday but were of the view that ‘the prospect for a sustained rise beyond 1.2380 is not high’. While GBP subsequently moved above 1.2380, it retreated after touching 1.2394. While the overall outlook appears to be positive for GBP, upward momentum has not improved by much. For today, there is scope for GBP to edge above 1.2400 but the next resistance at 1.2430 is unlikely to come under threat. On the downside, only a move below 1.2310 (minor support is at 1.2335) would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “We indicated last Friday (29 May, spot at 1.2315) that GBP ‘has to close above 1.2380 before a sustained advance can be expected’. GBP subsequently rose to 1.2394 before easing off to close at 1.2347 in NY (+0.24%). Upward momentum has improved slightly and we continue to wait for a daily closing above 1.2380 before adopting a more a positive outlook in GBP. The prospect for such a move is quite high as long as GBP does not move below 1.2275 within these 1 to 2 days. Looking ahead, a daily closing above 1.2380 could lead to an advance in GBP towards 1.2465, possibly above 1.2500.”
|01:00||Australia||MI Inflation Gauge, m/m||May||0.2%||-1.2%|
|01:45||China||Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI||May||49.4||49.6||50.7|
In today's Asian trading, the euro continued to rise against the US dollar after reaching a two-month high on Friday.
Last week, the euro was supported by the European Commission's proposal to create a financial instrument for post-crisis recovery of the EU economy in the amount of 750 billion euros.
"The European recovery Fund can really accelerate the growth of the single currency, as it gives hope for a prosperous future of the European Union, and especially the Euro," says ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista.
In addition, he noted that the dollar on Friday was influenced by the publication of data from the us Department of Commerce, according to which spending by the country's population in April decreased by 13.6% compared to the previous month.
Meanwhile, the head of the us Federal reserve system (Fed), Jerome Powell, said that negative interest rates are not suitable for the US.
The ICE Dollar index, which shows the value of the us dollar against six major world currencies, fell by 0.37% compared to the previous trading day.
Reuters reports that Japan's government will submit to parliament early next week a second extra budget to fund a new $1.1 trillion stimulus package to cushion the economic blow from the coronavirus pandemic, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Monday.
With ruling and opposition parties on board for big spending to combat the virus fallout, parliament is likely to approve the budget as early as next week.
The move would give Abe ammunition to inject another heavy dose of stimulus to an economy on the brink of deep recession as the pandemic hit global and domestic demand.
"We'd like to submit (the second extra budget) to parliament early next week," Abe said in a meeting with ruling party lawmakers. "We need to protect businesses and jobs."
Abe's cabinet approved last month the $1.1 trillion stimulus package that includes significant direct spending, having rolled out a package of a similar magnitude in April.
The extra budget needs to get approved by parliament for the stimulus package to take effect.
Notable in the new stimulus package is 10 trillion yen ($93 billion) in reserves set aside for "emergency" spending - more than 10-fold the usual amount - that the government can tap for additional needs that arise to battle the pandemic.
Just two months into the new fiscal year beginning in April, the government compiled two extra budgets worth a combined 58 trillion yen to combat the virus shock - about 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) and more than half the size of this year's annual state budget.
"It's clear the government focused on the size of stimulus this time," said Hiroshi Ugai, chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Securities, who says the two stimulus packages will boost Japan's real GDP this year by 3.2 percentage points.
"It also leaves Japan with an expanded fiscal deficit" that could draw market attention once the pandemic subsides, he said.
Some analysts say Japan may be forced to compile a third extra budget later this year to take into account an expected slump in tax revenues due to slumping corporate profits.
After years of heavy spending to stimulate a low-growth economy, Japan is saddled with a huge public debt that is twice the size of its economy and the biggest among major industrialised countries.
RTTNews reports that China's manufacturing sector returned to expansion zone in May driven by the easing of restrictions related to the coronavirus, or Covid-19, pandemic, survey results from IHS Markit showed Monday.
The headline manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 50.7 in May from 49.4 in April.
The latest score above 50.0 indicates a renewed improvement in overall operating conditions but the pace of expansion was only marginal.
It appears that growth has returned to the manufacturing sector, but new export orders and imports were still in contraction, ING economist Iris Pang, said. A recovery in manufacturing and employment in some sectors remains challenging.
According to official PMI survey, released over the weekend, the factory PMI dropped to 50.6 in May from 50.8 in April. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI advanced to 53.6 from 53.2.
Manufacturers reported an increase in output following a record fall in February, due to the resumption of work. The pace of growth was the fastest since January 2011.
However, total new work declined again as there was a historic fall in external demand in May.
A lack of new orders drove the first fall in backlogs of work since February 2016. At the same time, the resumption of production led to a renewed increase in buying activity.
The employment sub-index rebounded in May but it remained in negative territory.
Supply chains stabilized following severe disruptions in prior months due to restrictions related to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Manufacturers signaled a third successive monthly fall in average input costs, while factory gate prices were little-changed from the previous month.
Business confidence picked up in May, with firms generally optimistic that output will rise over the next year.
FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group remain constructive on EUR/USD and expect a potential test of the 1.1150 region in the next weeks.
24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that ‘the swift advance is in overbought territory but EUR could have enough fuel in its tank for a push above 1.1100’. We added, ‘a break of the late-March peak near 1.1145 would come as a surprise’. Our view was not wrong as EUR eased off after touching 1.1144. Conditions remain overbought but the current EUR strength appears to be tenacious and from here, EUR could edge above 1.1145. That said, EUR is unlikely able to maintain a toe-hold above this level (next resistance is at 1.1190). Support is at 1.1095 but the stronger level is at 1.1070.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “On Wednesday (27 May, spot at 1.0970), we highlighted that the ‘outlook for EUR is mildly positive’. We added, EUR ‘has to close above 1.1020 before a more sustained advance can be expected’. While our positive view for EUR was not wrong, we did not expect the sudden upward acceleration that sent to a high of 1.1093 yesterday (28 May). From here, the outlook is clearly still positive but the strong boost in momentum suggests EUR could continue to advance towards the late-March peak near 1.1145. To look at it another way, instead of mildly positive, the current outlook for EUR is clearly positive. Only a breach of 1.0980 (‘strong support’ previously at 1.0900) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”
CNBC reports that the number of coronavirus cases globally topped more than 6.1 million as deaths rose to at least 371,995, a tally from Johns Hopkins University shows.
Cases in China had the biggest increase since May 11, the country’s National Health Commission reported.
As demonstrations erupted in major U.S. cities across the nation in response to the death of unarmed black man George Floyd, peaceful protests turned ugly as demonstrators set fires, looted stores and clashed with riot police. The destruction prompted Los Angeles to suspend coronavirus testing Saturday afternoon due to safety concerns.
U.S. cases: More than 1.78 million
U.S. deaths: At least 104,381
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1133
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date June, 5 is 96829 contracts (according to data from May, 29) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (5296);
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2385
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 5 is 23781 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3420);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 5 is 30339 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3095);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.28 versus 1.27 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 29
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
|01:00||Australia||MI Inflation Gauge, m/m||May||0.2%|
|01:45||China||Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI||May||49.4||49.6|
|08:30||United Kingdom||Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing||May||32.6||40.7|
|14:00||U.S.||Construction Spending, m/m||April||0.9%||-6%|
|22:45||New Zealand||Building Permits, m/m||April||-21.3%|
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