• Concerns about the cliff effect of ending PEPP cannot automatically mean demands for increasing APP
• There is no automatic formula; we’ll be deciding according to conditions at the given time
• PEPP has been functioning very well and naturally it is now in final stage of its life cycle; it’s a special tool designed for special situation, and it will be phased out when it’s not needed anymore
• The market seems to understand that this tool will be terminated with end of the pandemic
• If inflation remains elevated next year because of supply bottlenecks, my concern is that it could spill into wage negotiations for following year as well, but we are not seeing this happening in key countries so far

• We "do believe" inflation will come down; most of what's contributing to inflation from a small number of items
• We are, in my view, a long way from maximum employment
• We  "have all but met" the test for tapering
• The test for raising rates is higher
• Even with a taper, we'll still be buying net bonds until mid-year

The Conference Board announced on Tuesday its U.S. consumer confidence fell 5.9 points to 109.3 in September from 115.2 in August. This was the lowest reading since February.

Economists had expected consumer confidence to come in at 114.5.

August’s consumer confidence reading was revised up from the originally estimated 113.8.

The survey showed that the present situation index dropped from 148.9 in August to 143.4 this month. Meanwhile, the expectations index decreased from 92.8 last month to 86.6 in September.

“Consumer confidence dropped in September as the spread of the Delta variant continued to dampen optimism,” noted Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Concerns about the state of the economy and short-term growth prospects deepened, while spending intentions for homes, autos, and major appliances all retreated again. Short-term inflation concerns eased somewhat, but remain elevated. Consumer confidence is still high by historical levels - enough to support further growth in the near-term - but the Index has now fallen 19.6 points from the recent peak of 128.9 reached in June. These back-to-back declines suggest consumers have grown more cautious and are likely to curtail spending going forward.”

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) reported on Tuesday its Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas, jumped 19.9 percent y-o-y in July, following an unrevised 19.1 percent y-o-y surge in June.

Economists had expected a surge of 20.0 percent y-o-y.

Phoenix (+32.4 percent y-o-y), San Diego (+27.8 percent y-o-y) and Seattle (+25.5 percent y-o-y) recorded the highest y-o-y increases among the 20 cities in July. Overall, 17 of the 20 cities reported greater price gains in the year ending July 2021 versus the year ending June 2021.

Meanwhile, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, climbed 19.7 percent y-o-y in July, following an 18.7 percent y-o-y advance in the previous month. This was the biggest annual rise on record.

“July 2021 is the fourth consecutive month in which the growth rate of housing prices set a record,” noted Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. “The last several months have been extraordinary not only in the level of price gains, but in the consistency of gains across the country. In July, all 20 cities rose, and 17 gained more in the 12 months ended in July than they had gained in the 12 months ended in June. Home prices in 19 of our 20 cities now stand at all-time highs, with the sole outlier (Chicago) only 0.3% below its 2006 peak.”

U.S. stock-index futures plunged on Tuesday amid continuing growth in U.S. Treasury yields and energy prices.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse note a close below NZD/USD's recent lows at 0.6981 is set to turn the short-term risks lower within the broad range.

“A close below the 50% retracement of the July/August upswing and the aforementioned price lows at 0.6988/81 would turn the short-term risks lower within the broader range, with next support seen at 0.6933/29, then 0.6878.”

“We would expect 0.6805 to define the bottom of the range, with our broader outlook staying neutral.”

“Near-term resistance moves to 0.7034/36, above which would relieve the recent downside pressure. Only a break above the aforementioned downtrend at 0.7114/16 would reassert conviction in a move higher.” 

Morgan Stanley (MS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg; target raised to $95

Wells Fargo (WFC) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; target lowered to $46

• Eurozone economy is back from brink, but not completely out of woods
• Euro area is going through a highly atypical recovery
• Atypical recovery is leading to rapid growth, but also to supply bottlenecks appearing unusually early in economic cycle; it is also causing inflation to rebound quickly as economy reopens
• We are monitoring developments carefully but, for now, we see no signs that this increase in inflation is becoming broad-based across the economy
• Wage developments so far show no signs of significant second-round effects
• Inflation expectations also do not point to risks of prolonged overshooting
• Looking beyond the pandemic, we expect inflation to only slowly converge towards 2%
• Employment is now recovering quickly, but we have so far observed that labour force participation is rising even faster
• We expect unemployment to fall below its pre-crisis level only in Q2 2023, and wages to grow only moderately
• Our monetary policy will continue to provide conditions necessary to fuel the recovery
• Once the pandemic emergency comes to an end, our forward guidance on rates as well as purchases under asset purchase programme will ensure that monetary policy remains supportive of timely attainment of our medium-term 2% target

USD strengthened against other major currencies in the European session on Tuesday, as the U.S. Treasury yields continued to grow, making the U.S. currency more attractive to investors.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, increased 0.21% to 93.58.

The 10-year Treasury yields are trading at 1.528%, compared with 1.485% at yesterday’s close. This is the highest rate since June. 

U.S. Treasury yields have surged since the end of last week after the Federal Reserve signaled the end of the period of the super-cheap money. The latest policy update from the U.S. central bank indicated that the Fed could begin scaling back its bond purchases in November and end the process by mid-2022. In addition, the Fed officials’ projections of interest rates, known as the dot plot, pointed to a sooner-than-expected rate hike for 2022.

Market participants also assessed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks, which were released ahead of his Senate testimony, set to begin today at 14:00 GMT. The Fed’s chair noted that inflation pressures and hiring difficulties in the world's biggest economy may be "greater and more enduring than anticipated", but added that they would abate. He also noted that “if sustained higher inflation were to become a serious concern” the Fed would certainly respond and use its tools to ensure that inflation runs at levels that are consistent with its goal. These comments heightened inflation concerns.

FXStreet reports that economists at Société Générale suggest that defending the August low of 1.1664 level is crucial for EUR/USD rebound.

“EUR/USD is approaching the low formed in August at 1.1660. Defending this can result in a bounce, however, multi-month trend line near 1.1800 must be reclaimed for an extended bounce.” 

“Next downside projections are located near 1.1610."

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group note that USD/CNH is still seen trading between 6.4359 and 6.4880 for the time being.

24-hour view: “USD traded between 6.4540 and 6.4691 yesterday, narrower than our expected consolidation range of 6.4520/6.4700. The quiet price actions offer no fresh clues and further consolidation appears likely. Expected range for today, 6.4530/6.4730.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “As highlighted, USD is still in a consolidation phase and could trade between 6.4350 and 6.4880 for a period of time.”

• Says virus restrictions will be eased gradually “in order to resume daily lives despite the presence of the virus" 
• Government will create more temporary COVID-19 treatment facilities and continue vaccinations to prepare for any future resurgence
• Government officials are also instituting other plans such as vaccine passports and virus tests

• PBoC has conditions to keep normal and upward yield curve
• We see no need to purchase assets at the moment

• We are in the midst of fragile but rapid recovery
• Significant challenges from the Delta variant continue to suppress speed of recovery and present substantial barriers to vibrant economy; still, I remain optimistic about the medium-term trajectory of our economy, and I expect we will return to full employment next year
• U.S. recovery is stronger than those of other wealthy nations; one key factor for our overperformance is policy choices that Congress has made over past 18 months
• Those choices include the passage of CARES Act, Consolidated Appropriations Act, and American Rescue Plan 
• As for state, local, tribal, and territory governments, COVID-19 decimated their budgets
• There were mass layoffs, and to end health and economic emergencies, we knew that communities would need funding
• The American Rescue Plan included $350 billion to that end, and those dollars are indeed helping machinery of local governments get up-and-running; states and localities can rely on relief money that is available instead of resorting to painful budget cuts
• I'll end my remarks there except to reiterate what I've communicated many times these past several weeks: it is imperative that Congress swiftly addresses the debt limit. If it does not, America would default for first time in history
• Full faith and credit of U.S. would be impaired, and our country would likely face financial crisis and economic recession
• It’s necessary to avert catastrophic event for our economy
• For relief dollars not yet out door, Treasury is doing everything it can to expedite their delivery

• Growth is widely expected to continue at strong pace in H2
• Sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but rise in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery
• Demand for labor is very strong, and job gains averaged 750,000 per month over past three months
• In August, however, gains slowed markedly; unemployment rate was 5.2 percent, and this figure understates shortfall in employment, particularly as participation in labor market has not moved up from low rates that have prevailed for most of past year
• Factors related to the pandemic, such as caregiving needs and ongoing fears of the virus, appear to be weighing on employment growth; these factors should diminish with progress on containing the virus
• As the economy continues to reopen and spending rebounds, we are seeing upward pressure on prices, particularly due to supply bottlenecks in some sectors; these effects have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated, but they will abate, and as they do, inflation is expected to drop back toward our longer-run 2% goal
• If sustained higher inflation were to become a serious concern, we would certainly respond and use our tools to ensure that inflation runs at levels that are consistent with our goal
• Path of economy continues to depend on course of the virus, and risks to outlook remain
• In response to crisis, we took broad and forceful measures to support flow of credit in economy and to promote stability of financial system at onset of the pandemic
• Fed completed its sales of assets from Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility on August 31; we were able to wind down the facility rapidly and efficiently, with no adverse impact on credit conditions
• Fed also recently closed Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility to new lending, and facility is now in runoff mode
• Similarly, we are managing paydown of assets in our other CARES Act facilities as they wind down over time
• We will do all we can to support the economy for as long as it takes to complete the recovery

Reuters reports that Barclays raised its 2022 oil price forecasts reasoning that a continued recovery in demand could widen a 'persistent' supply shortfall.

The bank raised its 2022 Brent crude price forecast by $9 to $77 per barrel driven in part by "reduced confidence" for a revival of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal.

"OPEC+ tapering would not plug the oil supply gap through at least Q1 2022 as demand recovery is likely to continue to outpace this, due partly to limited capacity of some producers in the group to ramp up output," Barclays said in a note.

This month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a grouping known as OPEC+, agreed to stick to its decision made in July to phase out record output cuts.

But Barclays analysts noted that "limited market share threat from U.S. production growth means there is no urgency for OPEC+ producers to step on the gas".

FXStreet reports that economists at HSBC discuss GBP/USD prospects.

“The details of the BoE policy decision, i.e., the vote on QE and the commentary around when rate hikes might start, were somewhat more hawkish than expected and suggest some room for near-term GBP outperformance.”

“We would still temper long-term optimism on the GBP. The BoE commentary suggests neutral rates may be nearer to 1%. Contrast this with the Federal Reserve, for example, the 2024 median interest rate projection is 1.75%. This should act as an impediment to lasting GBP strength.”

“The UK faces significant and ongoing supply-side pressures regarding gas supply, labour supply, and various logistics issues. These increased costs and burdens on UK competitiveness point to long-term fair value for the GBP drifting lower over time.”

CNBC reports that as Germany prepares for an overhaul in its political status quo, analysts are looking at what impact the next government could have on the European Union.

The Socialist Party, SPD, narrowly won the election, according to preliminary results, with 25.7% of support. It is now trying to form a coalition government with the Green party and the liberal FDP. 

The SPD’s candidate for chancellor is Olaf Scholz, the country’s current finance minister and vice chancellor.

“If Olaf Scholz becomes chancellor, he will be quite well-positioned, because he at least has the experience of a finance minister,” Daniela Schwarzer, executive director at Open Society Foundations, said about Scholz’s relationship with Europe.

Despite this, Schwarzer flagged that Scholz remains far less experienced than Merkel, who has played a fundamental role in European politics for decades.

Germany, as one of the founding nations of the EU, has long held a certain weight in European policymaking. During her time as chancellor, Merkel helped lead the bloc’s response to the global financial crisis, sovereign debt crisis, migration crisis and, more recently, the coronavirus pandemic.

Beyond leadership style, there are open questions about what the new German chancellor will mean for deeper integration among the 19-euro economies.

“I think the ability of the German chancellor to act decisively — that’s going to be pretty constrained,” Robin Bew, managing director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said.

This is because the coalition, once formed, will likely lean a little more toward EU integration than in the past. However, he stressed that a three-way coalition will also be harder to manage, given the wider range of opinions.

Bloomberg reports that the U.K. 10-year yield passed 1% for the first time in 18 months. 

The rate on benchmark gilts rose as much as five basis points to 1.003%, the highest level since the market turmoil in March 2020. They haven’t closed above 1% since May 2019. The move comes after some U.S. Treasury yields hit similar pandemic-era milestones. 

U.K. sovereign debt has been at the forefront of a global bond selloff in recent sessions after the Bank of England brought forward rate-hike expectations last week. Money markets currently see a first 15 basis point point hike in February, followed by a further quarter-of-a-percentage point rise to 0.5% in August. 

eFXdata reports that Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook.

"We view fair value for EUR/USD to be a 1.08-1.20 range, depending on the model employed. Either way, at current levels, valuation is neutral if not an outright headwind for spot. There are a number of ‘second-round’ effects, which could strategically signal or entrench dollar weakness, which we are not seeing. These include 1) broad deregulation, 2) a dollar-based credit boom, 3) strong performance in Latin American assets, 4) a dollar-negative terms of trade shock and 5) a strong rise in European earning expectations versus US. A change in these factors will be key to changing our view on long-term dollar outlook," Danske adds.

FXStreet reports that economists at UBS expect the rise in yields to go further, and they do not see this becoming disruptive or halting the equity rally.

“Even if the 10-year yield rises to 1.8% by the end of 2021, and to 2% in subsequent months, the equity risk premium – which indicates the relative appeal of stocks versus bonds – will still leave equities looking attractive, all else equal. 

“Rather than ending the equity rally, we expect the rise in yields to favor cyclical sectors such as financials and energy over growth sectors such as technology, which experience a bigger drag on the present value of future cash flows from higher rates.”

CNBC reports that Goldman Sachs economists have cut their forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2021 as the world’s second-largest economy faces “yet another growth shock” in the form of constraints on energy consumption.

Goldman Sachs now expects China’s GDP to grow 7.8% in 2021 compared with a year ago — that’s lower than its previous forecast for an 8.2% year-on-year expansion.

“A relatively new, but tightening, constraint on growth comes from increased regulatory pressure to meet environmental targets for energy consumption and energy intensity,” the economists said in a Tuesday report.

In addition, regulatory tightening in other sectors and targeted restrictions to curb local Covid-19 outbreaks would also weigh down the Chinese economy, said the bank.

Goldman said production cuts among manufacturers and less fiscal support mean that the Chinese economy will grow at a slower pace in the third and fourth quarters this year.

The bank expects China’s economy to grow 4.8% in the third quarter of 2021 compared to a year ago, and 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Previously, Goldman’s forecasts were 5.1% and 4.1% for the third and fourth quarters, respectively.

China said its economy grew 7.9% year-on-year in the second quarter this year.

FXStreet reports that strategists at DBS Bank raise their oil price forecasts for next few quarters.

“Considering the higher gas prices and potential oil demand boost of 0.5- 1.0mmbpd in the near-term from fuel switching requirements, we revise up our oil price forecasts for the next few quarters. Thus, our 2021 average Brent crude oil price forecast now stands at $67-72/bbl (vs. $65- 70/bbl earlier) and our 2022 Brent crude oil average price forecast is raised to $70-75/bbl (vs. $67-72/bbl earlier).”

“China oil imports will likely be weaker than expected in 2H21, owing to the Delta variant outbreak-related lockdowns and Evergrande contagion, but the oil market remains well supported by demand from other parts of the world, with global oil inventories well below five-year average levels and persistently falling month-on-month.”

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose moderately against major currencies.

The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), rose 0.2%.

The US currency is supported by the continued growth of US Treasuries yields, associated with the "hawkish" statements of the Federal Reserve System. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed could start reducing the volume of asset purchases at the meeting on November 2-3 and complete this program by mid-2022. On Monday, he noted that US inflation is likely to remain high in the coming months, but then inflation will begin to slow down.

At the same time, Powell acknowledged the risks that inflationary pressure in the US will be stronger than expected, or deeper. The Fed will raise the benchmark interest rate if "a significant increase in inflation will cause serious concerns," according to the text of its statement prepared for a speech in the US Senate on Tuesday.

The increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds traditionally supports the dollar. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries on Monday broke the 1.5% mark for the first time since June and remains above this level on Tuesday.

The situation in Germany remains in the focus of traders ' attention, where parliamentary elections were held over the weekend and negotiations on the formation of a government coalition are now ahead, which may take several weeks or even months, analysts say.

AP News reports that the World Bank cut its economic growth forecast for developing countries in East Asia due to the impact of the coronavirus’s delta variant and called on governments to help the poor and small businesses avoid long-term damage.

Excluding China’s unexpectedly strong growth, developing countries in East Asia should grow by 2.5% this year, down from a forecast of 4.4% in April, World Bank said in a report. It said China, the region’s biggest economy, should expand by 8.5%.

The region is “suffering a reversal of fortune” after China, Vietnam and other governments contained coronavirus outbreaks last year, the bank said. It said business activity in Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and other economies was improving but now is “showing signs of slowing down.”

The region must increase vaccine production due to the unreliability of imports and high demand, the bank said. It said governments also need to use testing, tracing and isolation to contain infections and strengthen their health systems.

To prevent long-term economic damage, the bank said governments need to support productive companies and encourage new competitors, promote technology development and reduce trade barriers.

According to the report from INSEE, in September 2021, households’ confidence in the economic situation has increased. At 102, the indicator that summarizes it has gained three points and is back above its long-term average (100). Economists had expected an increase to 100.

In September, the households’ opinion balance related to their future financial situation has bounced back by one point. The one relative to their personal past financial situation has been stable. Both balances remain above their long-term averages. The share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases has decreased this month, the corresponding balance has lost three points, but remains above its average.

In September, the households’ opinion balance related to their future saving capacity has bounced back by three points. In contrast, the one relative to their current saving capacity has fallen by one point, as well as the one about the opportunity to save. These three balances remain well above their long-term average.

In September 2021, the households' fears about unemployment trend have decreased. Below its long term average since June, the corresponding balance moved further away by losing thirteen points this month.

Reuters reports that data from China's statistics bureau showed that profits at China's industrial firms grew at a weaker pace in August from a year earlier, slowing for a sixth consecutive month, as manufacturers struggled with high commodity prices, COVID-19 outbreaks and shortages of some key components.

Profits rose 10.1% on year to 680.3 billion yuan ($105 billion) last month compared with a 16.4% gain in July.

Momentum in the world's second-biggest economy has weakened in recent months, with its vast manufacturing sector buffeted by gathering headwinds.

High commodity prices in recent months have hurt the bottom-lines of many medium-sized and downstream factories. China last week vowed to step up policy coordination to counter challenges from high commodity prices.

To cool prices, China will auction more industrial metals from its state stockpiles next month in a rare release of inventories. Prior to this year, Beijing had not sold off state metal reserves for more than a decade.

Earlier this month, China also released crude oil from its strategic reserves for the first time.

But further dimming the outlook for manufacturers, China has tightened controls on power usage by energy-intensive firms to meet climate goals, hurting production. The power shortages have also triggered electricity cuts across regions this month, clouding the economic outlook

For the January-August period, industrial firms' profits rose 49.5% year-on-year to 5.61 trillion yuan, slowing from a 57.3% increase in the first seven months of 2021. Liabilities at industrial firms rose 8.4% on an annual basis at end-August, up from 8.2% growth as of end-July.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1811 (806)

$1.1774 (566)

$1.1748 (567)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1688

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1669 (3747)

$1.1635 (1146)

$1.1593 (6544)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 8 is 71326 contracts (according to data from September, 27) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (8607);

GBP/USD

$1.3864 (432)

$1.3824 (522)

$1.3791 (171)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3696

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3646 (1163)

$1.3615 (457)

$1.3578 (957)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 8 is 11942 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4150 (2071);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 8 is 17640 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (1774);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.48 versus 1.44 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 27

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

According to the GfK Consumer Sentiment Study, consumer confidence in Germany increases again in September. Both economic and income expectations are increasing, along with propensity to buy. Consequently, GfK is forecasting a value of 0.3 points in consumer sentiment for October, up 1.4 points from September of this year (revised from -1.1 points). Economists had expected a decrease to -1.6 points.

The current rise in income prospects and propensity to consume, as well as a decreasing propensity to save, are contributing to the recovery of consumer sentiment in Germany. As a result, consumer sentiment is higher than it has been for the last year and a half. A higher value was last measured in April 2020, at 2.3 points.

After two months with losses that were in some cases noticeable, the consumer sentiment picked up again in September. with the indicator economic expectations rising by 7.7 points to a total of 48.5 points. This actually represents an increase of currently 24 points compared to the same period of the previous year.

The growing consumer optimism signals that consumers here consider the German economy on course for recovery, although the momentum is somewhat more moderate than expected a few months ago. A stable labor market also contributes significantly to the high level of economic expectations.