Market Overview

30 martie 2021 14:01

Frederico Aragao Morais

Today's market sentiment is being appetite for risk. Europe is rising on Tuesday as investors appear to have ignored fears about the Archegos hedge fund and despite rising bond yields. The dollar continued under strong demand in Asia, driven by rising bond yields and expectations that the US economic recovery may lead the Federal Reserve to restrict monetary policy earlier than anticipated. Treasury yields added to Monday's gains in the Asian session, with investors focused on the end-of-week employment report, which may underscore the robustness of the US economy as vaccination accelerates.
24 martie 2021 16:02

Lysakov Sergey

The U.S. Dollar is unlikely to have a big cause for a noticeable strengthening across the whole of the spectrum of the world's major currencies, since unordinary spikes in 10-year Treasury bond yields up to the annual level of 1.75% have calmed down for a while to reach 1.6% during the Asian trading hours today. This happened despite the Federal Reserve's inaction and against growing inflation expectations. Nevertheless, some of the Greenback's competing currencies have found their own reasons to decline.
24 martie 2021 08:59

Mark Goichmann

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has jumped into the digital currencies race to create its own CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency). “We have an obligation to be on the cutting edge of understanding the technological challenges, as well as the potential costs and benefits, of issuing a [central bank digital currency]," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. However, Mr. Powell said that there is no need to rush with the launch of a new currency: “we’re the world’s principal reserve currency, we don't need to rush this project, and we don't need to be first to market.
23 martie 2021 17:43

Frederico Aragao Morais

The large increase in fiscal and monetary stimulus that has been observed in this crisis has raised concerns about the risk of inflation. In essence, the argument focuses on the fact that if the money supply increases faster than its actual production then (ceteris paribus), inflation will occur. That is, if a central bank prints currency, at the outset households will also have more money available, which will perhaps make them spend more on consumption. Despite an increase in the money in circulation - the amount of goods does not change - therefore leading to an increase in prices.
23 martie 2021 17:40

Frederico Aragao Morais

Today's market sentiment is aversion to risk. News that Germany has extended containment measures for another month is hurting Europe on Tuesday. The dollar remained stable in Asia after increased risk-taking prompted a fall in Treasury yields, countering fears about the rise in Covid-19 cases and new lockdowns in Europe. Yields on the higher-maturity Treasurys continued to fall in Asia after recording the biggest decline in weeks on Monday. However, many investors predict that bond yields will continue to rise as the U.S. economy recovers.
17 martie 2021 15:44

Lysakov Sergey

As the U.S. inflation data indicated as much as 2.8% of growth in the producer price index (PPI) last Friday, which is the highest value since November 2018, some part of the market seem to be mystified by the possible backlash by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its latest regular meeting. The results of Fed's own monetary policy's audit will be represented to the market at 18.00 GMT, and the press conference with the U.S. regulator's Chairman Jerome Powell will follow half an hour later. This possible increase in inflation could be due to the intense work of the U.S.
10 martie 2021 14:51

Lysakov Sergey

Brent oil prices spiked above $71/bbl in early Asian hours on Monday, March 8. The factor that played a role in this outcome is most probably fears around supply disruption from Saudi Arabia, after another combined drone and missile attack on some of its facilities by Yemen-based forces over the weekend. After these fears quickly faded, quotes were seen to go back to normal within the next two working days and now more adequate levels below $68/bbl can be seen. The morning low in European time on Wednesday was near $66.7/bbl, where the oil market found at least an intraday support.
10 martie 2021 12:27

Mark Goichmann

The U.S. Dollar has overturned the consensus idea of the weakening Greenback that seemed to capture investors’ minds in the financial market. Negative factors that pressured the American currency before suddenly turned to a positive upside are discussed below.  The loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and a new fiscal stimulus package of $1.9 trillion should, in theory, increase the supply of Dollars and this should eventually lead to a weaker Greenback. It is expected that neither the Fed nor the U.S.
3 martie 2021 15:51

Lysakov Sergey

As China's industrial activity data failed to inspire the investment community at the beginning of the week, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) at 50.6 only against the estimated 51.1 level by the average Reuters poll's forecast and after topping at 52.1 peak in November 2020, a similar set of indicators in the EU were much more pleasant in market's eyes. Therefore, the European stock indexes have got a real chance to grow faster than their Asian and American competitors, attracting potentially more capital inflows into portfolios consisting of Old World's companies.
3 martie 2021 15:00

Mark Goichmann

Crude prices are highly dependent on risk appetite and business activity expectations. Such expectations may be an explanation of the rally in crude prices, stock indices and other risky assets in the recent weeks. However, crude prices rally is rather more emotional and was not supported by strong fundamentals. In February, OPEC estimated daily crude demand up by 5.6 million barrels per day in 2021 after it tumbled by roughly 10 million bpd in 2020. Meanwhile crude prices are already at those levels of early 2020 demand with Brent crude at $63-65 per barrel.
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