The US dollar continues to decline, dropping to the lowest values of this month against the euro and Japanese yen, as investors were awaiting the Federal Reserve's meeting next week.
Investors have long been open position, relying on the growth of the US dollar in anticipation of higher key interest rate the Fed for the first time in nearly 10 years. Many expect that rates will be raised at a meeting of the Operations Committee on the open market, which will take place on December 15-16. The rising cost of borrowing in the United States will make the dollar more attractive to investors seeking higher returns.
Recently, however, some asset managers have come to the conclusion that immediately after the Fed's meeting will weaken the dollar, as it has historically, and only then begin to rise again.
In addition, investors are going to close the position at the completion of the year, and many expect that market liquidity will decline after the Fed meeting.
Pressure on the dollar has also today published statistics. A report published by the US Census Bureau showed that the seasonally adjusted inventories in the warehouses of wholesale trade declined in October by 0.1%, reaching $ 585.9 billion. Experts expect that stocks will rise by 0.1% after increasing by 0 2% in September (revised from 0.5%). Compared with October 2014 reserves increased by 3.6%. It also became known that the stocks of durable goods fell by 0.1% in monthly terms, but rose by 2.5% per annum. Stocks of metals and minerals, excluding oil, fell by 1.1%, while stocks of electrical and electronic products rose 0.6%. Stocks of non-durable goods decreased by 0.1% from September, but rose by 5.4% per annum.
In addition, the report showed that wholesale sales totaled $ 448.0 in October bln., Almost unchanged compared with September. However, in annual terms, sales declined by 3.7%. Sales of durable goods fell 0.8% in the month and decreased by 2.2% per annum. Sales of vehicles and spare parts to them declined by 2.6% in October. Sales of nondurable goods rose 0.7% for the month, but fell by 5.1% per annum. Sales of crude oil and petroleum products increased by 2.9%, while sales of paper and paper products increased by 1.5%.
Also, the Census Bureau reported that the ratio of inventories to sales was 1.31 months in October. Recall that in October 2014 the ratio was at 1.22 months.
Previously, little impact on the rise in the euro had data on the statement by the representative of Germany and the ECB Nowotny. Federal Statistical Office of Germany reported that the country's trade balance, without seasonal adjustment, reached 22.5 billion, lower than the previous value revised to 22.8 billion from 22.9 billion. Exports and imports of Germany in October decreased, and the economy is likely no longer It will rely heavily on the export sector. Exports adjusted for seasonal variation and calendar factors decreased by 1.2% compared to September, while imports decreased by 3.4%.
Also today, the IFO Institute has revised downwards its forecast for German growth in 2015 to 1.7% from 1.9%. Estimates for 2016 have been improved to 1.9% from 1.85%. Also added to the IFO that the fall in oil prices, the increase in earnings, as well as easing the tax burden on households will help to ensure that private consumption will continue to provide the greatest support to the economy. While investment in construction is expected to grow dramatically over the forecast period, investment in equipment will show only a modest increase, in spite of the favorable financing conditions. As imports grow more than exports due to strong domestic demand forecasts, there will be almost no stimulus from foreign trade.
Meanwhile, a representative of the European Central Bank Ewald Nowotny said that the recent decision to expand the bank's actions to support the economy was "correct" in view of the still slow economic growth. "Economic growth in the euro area remains slow," - said Nowotny, adding that inflation is still significantly lower than the ECB's target of "below 2%". Comments representative of the Central Bank were made a few days after the magnitude of easing monetary policy the ECB has not met the expectations of many market participants.
The pound has appreciated significantly against the dollar, having played with all the lost positions yesterday. The reason for such dynamics was a general weakening of the US dollar and expectations of tomorrow's meeting of the Bank of England. It is expected that the Bank of England will announce the maintaining interest rates at a record low of 0.5%. Probably eight out of nine members of the Bank Board voted for to leave rates unchanged. Experts also point out that the Central Bank may signal that rates will stay low for an extended period of time.
Investors also drew attention to the report of the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC). It was reported that the UK economy will continue to show moderate growth, which will be mainly due to higher activity in the services sector and increased consumer spending. However, weakness in the sphere of trade and industrial activity will exert pressure on the economy. The BCC said that gross domestic product will grow by 2.4 percent this year, instead of 2.6 percent as reported in the latest economic forecast. The forecast for next year was lowered to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent. For 2017, growth has been revised up to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent. Weaker-than-expected trade data and manufacturing activity were the main reasons for lowering the forecast for GDP growth, said the BCC. Analysts said that the quarterly growth in the 4th quarter will average a little more than 0.6 percent. The services sector expanded by 2.7 percent in 2015, and production is expected to decline by 0.2 percent. In 2016, the growth in these sectors is likely to be 2.9 percent and 0.7 percent respectively. The unemployment rate is projected to decline from 5.3 percent in the third quarter of 2015 to 5.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016, and then to 5.1 percent in the second quarter of 2017.
O material postado é apenas para fins informativos e confiança nele pode levar a perdas. Os resultados passados não são um indicador confiável de resultados futuros. Por favor, leia o nosso aviso legal na integra.
Aviso de Risco: Negociar Forex e CFDs na margem acarreta um alto nível de risco e pode não ser adequado para todos os investidores. Os CFDs são instrumentos complexos e apresentam um alto risco de perder o dinheiro rapidamente devido à alavancagem. 73.55% das contas de investidores de retalho perdem o dinheiro quando negociam CFDs por meio deste provedor. Deve considerar se entende como funcionam os CFDs e se pode correr o risco de perder o seu dinheiro. Antes de negociar, deve ter em consideração o seu nível de experiência e situação financeira. A TeleTrade esforça-se para lhe fornecer todas as informações necessárias e medidas de proteção, mas se os riscos ainda não estiverem claros para si, por favor, procure aconselhamento independente.
© 2011-2020 TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd
A TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd está registada como uma Empresa de Investimento do Chipre (CIF) sob o número de registo HE272810 e licenciada pela Comissão de Valores Mobiliários do Chipre (CySEC) sob o número de licença 158/11.
A empresa opera de acordo com a Diretiva de Mercados de Instrumentos Financeiros (MiFID).
As informações contidas neste site são apenas para fins informativos. Todos os serviços e informações fornecidos foram obtidos de fontes consideradas fidignas. A TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd ("TeleTrade") e/ou terceiros provedores de informação fornecem os serviços e informações sem qualquer tipo de garantia. Ao usar essas informações e serviços, concorda que sob nenhuma circunstância a TeleTrade terá qualquer responsabilidade perante qualquer pessoa ou entidade por qualquer perda ou dano parcial ou total causado pela confiança em tais informações e serviços.
A TeleTrade coopera exclusivamente com instituições financeiras regulamentadas para segurança dos fundos dos clientes. Por favor, consulte toda a lista dos bancos e prestadores de serviços de pagamento encarregados do tratamento dos fundos dos clientes.
Por favor, leia os nossos Termos de Uso.
Para maximizar a experiência de navegação dos nossos visitantes, a TeleTrade utiliza cookies nos serviços web. Ao continuar navegando neste website, concorda com o uso de cookies. Poderá alterar o consentimento de cookies ou ler a declaração de cookies aqui.
A TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd presta actualmente os seus serviços numa base transfronteiriça, nos Estados do EEE (excepto na Bélgica) ao abrigo do regime de passaporte MiFID, e em determinados países terceiros . A TeleTrade não fornece os seus serviços para residentes ou nacionais dos EUA.
Os CFD são instrumentos complexos e apresentam um elevado risco de perda rápida dinheiro devido ao efeito de alavancagem. 73.55% dos investidores de retalho perdem capital quando negoceiam com este provedor. Deve considerar se compreende como funcionam os CFD e se pode correr o elevado risco de perda do seu dinheiro.