Notícias do Mercado

9 dezembro 2015

American focus: the US dollar fell

The US dollar continues to decline, dropping to the lowest values ​​of this month against the euro and Japanese yen, as investors were awaiting the Federal Reserve's meeting next week.

Investors have long been open position, relying on the growth of the US dollar in anticipation of higher key interest rate the Fed for the first time in nearly 10 years. Many expect that rates will be raised at a meeting of the Operations Committee on the open market, which will take place on December 15-16. The rising cost of borrowing in the United States will make the dollar more attractive to investors seeking higher returns.

Recently, however, some asset managers have come to the conclusion that immediately after the Fed's meeting will weaken the dollar, as it has historically, and only then begin to rise again.

In addition, investors are going to close the position at the completion of the year, and many expect that market liquidity will decline after the Fed meeting.

Pressure on the dollar has also today published statistics. A report published by the US Census Bureau showed that the seasonally adjusted inventories in the warehouses of wholesale trade declined in October by 0.1%, reaching $ 585.9 billion. Experts expect that stocks will rise by 0.1% after increasing by 0 2% in September (revised from 0.5%). Compared with October 2014 reserves increased by 3.6%. It also became known that the stocks of durable goods fell by 0.1% in monthly terms, but rose by 2.5% per annum. Stocks of metals and minerals, excluding oil, fell by 1.1%, while stocks of electrical and electronic products rose 0.6%. Stocks of non-durable goods decreased by 0.1% from September, but rose by 5.4% per annum.

In addition, the report showed that wholesale sales totaled $ 448.0 in October bln., Almost unchanged compared with September. However, in annual terms, sales declined by 3.7%. Sales of durable goods fell 0.8% in the month and decreased by 2.2% per annum. Sales of vehicles and spare parts to them declined by 2.6% in October. Sales of nondurable goods rose 0.7% for the month, but fell by 5.1% per annum. Sales of crude oil and petroleum products increased by 2.9%, while sales of paper and paper products increased by 1.5%.

Also, the Census Bureau reported that the ratio of inventories to sales was 1.31 months in October. Recall that in October 2014 the ratio was at 1.22 months.

Previously, little impact on the rise in the euro had data on the statement by the representative of Germany and the ECB Nowotny. Federal Statistical Office of Germany reported that the country's trade balance, without seasonal adjustment, reached 22.5 billion, lower than the previous value revised to 22.8 billion from 22.9 billion. Exports and imports of Germany in October decreased, and the economy is likely no longer It will rely heavily on the export sector. Exports adjusted for seasonal variation and calendar factors decreased by 1.2% compared to September, while imports decreased by 3.4%.

Also today, the IFO Institute has revised downwards its forecast for German growth in 2015 to 1.7% from 1.9%. Estimates for 2016 have been improved to 1.9% from 1.85%. Also added to the IFO that the fall in oil prices, the increase in earnings, as well as easing the tax burden on households will help to ensure that private consumption will continue to provide the greatest support to the economy. While investment in construction is expected to grow dramatically over the forecast period, investment in equipment will show only a modest increase, in spite of the favorable financing conditions. As imports grow more than exports due to strong domestic demand forecasts, there will be almost no stimulus from foreign trade.

Meanwhile, a representative of the European Central Bank Ewald Nowotny said that the recent decision to expand the bank's actions to support the economy was "correct" in view of the still slow economic growth. "Economic growth in the euro area remains slow," - said Nowotny, adding that inflation is still significantly lower than the ECB's target of "below 2%". Comments representative of the Central Bank were made a few days after the magnitude of easing monetary policy the ECB has not met the expectations of many market participants.

The pound has appreciated significantly against the dollar, having played with all the lost positions yesterday. The reason for such dynamics was a general weakening of the US dollar and expectations of tomorrow's meeting of the Bank of England. It is expected that the Bank of England will announce the maintaining interest rates at a record low of 0.5%. Probably eight out of nine members of the Bank Board voted for to leave rates unchanged. Experts also point out that the Central Bank may signal that rates will stay low for an extended period of time.

Investors also drew attention to the report of the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC). It was reported that the UK economy will continue to show moderate growth, which will be mainly due to higher activity in the services sector and increased consumer spending. However, weakness in the sphere of trade and industrial activity will exert pressure on the economy. The BCC said that gross domestic product will grow by 2.4 percent this year, instead of 2.6 percent as reported in the latest economic forecast. The forecast for next year was lowered to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent. For 2017, growth has been revised up to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent. Weaker-than-expected trade data and manufacturing activity were the main reasons for lowering the forecast for GDP growth, said the BCC. Analysts said that the quarterly growth in the 4th quarter will average a little more than 0.6 percent. The services sector expanded by 2.7 percent in 2015, and production is expected to decline by 0.2 percent. In 2016, the growth in these sectors is likely to be 2.9 percent and 0.7 percent respectively. The unemployment rate is projected to decline from 5.3 percent in the third quarter of 2015 to 5.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016, and then to 5.1 percent in the second quarter of 2017.

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