Notícias do Mercado

25 novembro 2015

American focus: the US dollar rose

The US dollar rose against most major currencies after the release of strong US economic data, contributed to the strengthening of optimism about the strength of the national economy.

The US Commerce Department reported that the volume of home sales in the primary market increased last month by 10.7% to 495,000 units compared with expectations for a 6.0% to 500,000.

The report came shortly after the US Labor Department reported that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending November 21 fell by 12,000 to 260,000 from a revised 272,000 the previous week.

In addition, the US Commerce Department said that orders for durable goods jumped last month by 3.0%, easily surpassing the forecast of growth of 1.5%.

Base orders for durable goods, excluding vehicles, rose in October by 0.5% compared to expectations of an increase by 0.3%.

The data also showed that personal spending in the US rose last month by 0.1% instead of the expected growth of 0.3%. In September personal spending rose 0.1%.

The euro has fallen sharply earlier against the dollar, dropping at the same level of $ 1.0600 below. The main reason there have been reports Reuters news agency that ECB officials are considering an increase in the size of the bond purchase program and the introduction of two-tier commission for banks that keep their cash at the ECB. Recall the ECB's next meeting is scheduled for December 3rd. Also today, the representative of the ECB's Constancio said that the change in volume of asset purchases (QE) will continue to depend on the new data, and reiterated that one of the objectives of the Central Bank does not include the foreign exchange market. He added that the euro zone can survive the rise in interest rates the US Federal Reserve, which is expected in December.

Focus has also been a report of the ECB on financial stability. It noted that the European financial system is threatened some of the risks associated with developing countries, particularly with China, although in the second half of 2015 the markets have overcome the effects of a series of upheavals. "Some volatility jumps finrynka indicate that the vulnerability of the problems in emerging markets has increased. Of particular concern are the prospects for China's view of its role in the world economy", - stated in the report of the ECB.

The ECB also announced that from December 22 to January 1, temporarily suspend purchases of bonds on the background of the projected decrease in market liquidity. From 27 November to 21 December bond purchases will be made more active, in a relatively more favorable market situation is expected in the 1st half of December. Currently, the ECB buys bonds for 60 billion euros a month. The program is valid from March 2015.

The yen weakened against the dollar after the minutes of the October meeting of the Bank of Japan showed that some members of the board of directors of the Japanese Central Bank considered that one of the reasons why the country can not be achieved in terms of inflation targets, became the decline in production. Concerns intensified lingering fear that the delay in achieving the 2% inflation target of the Bank of Japan indicates the inefficiency of central bank quantitative easing program. However, in accordance with the protocol, most responsible for the policy of the Bank of Japan officials said that the delay in achieving the inflation target due to low oil prices.

The pound regained the lost positions against the dollar after the Office for Budget Responsibility Britain revised its outlook on Britain's GDP upward. Management reports also pointed to an increase in labor demand in the labor market, for which the Bank of England drew increased attention when deciding on the rate. The Office for Budget Responsibility Britain raised its forecast for GDP in 2016 to 2.4% and announced that the government intends to achieve a budget surplus. Key messages speech Finance Minister Osborne: the next 5 years will create one million additional jobs; the British economy is still facing serious challenges; the weakness of the euro zone economy - a recurring problem; the debt level will decrease and will continue to decline every year; according to the estimates, in 2019-2020, the budget returns to surplus zone.

Little influenced by the report from the British Bankers' Association (BBA), which showed that the country's banks approved in October, more than mortgage loans than the month before, which made it possible to raise the annual growth rate to its highest level since April 2014. According to the data, in October, the Bank approved 45.437 mortgage loans for the purchase of housing compared to 44.825 in September. In annual terms, the figure rose to 21 percent. Net private loans and overdrafts rose by 228 million. Pounds in October, recording the biggest gain for October 2006. "Today's data suggest that housing market activity remained strong in October - said economist Richard BBA Vulhaus. - Consumers remain confident, and earnings growth." Net mortgage lending rose by 1.891 billion. Pounds in October, compared with an increase of 2.191 billion. Pounds in September, but Vulhaus said that gross lending, which excludes payments rose at the fastest pace in seven years. "Credit growth observed in the wholesale, retail and manufacturing sectors, while lending to construction and real estate sector continues to decline," - said Vulhaus.

O foco de mercado
  • BOJ keeps policy steady, signals chance of easing in October
  • UK retail sales fell slightly in August
  • Fed lowers interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected
  • SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at -0.75%

O material postado é apenas para fins informativos e confiança nele pode levar a perdas. Os resultados passados não são um indicador confiável de resultados futuros. Por favor, leia o nosso aviso legal na integra.

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