Notícias do Mercado

24 novembro 2015

American focus: the US dollar declined moderately

Dollar holds decline against other major currencies, but traded near an eight-month peak in the previous session after data that showed the US economy grew in the third quarter more than originally anticipated.

The US economy has shown in the 3rd quarter of faster growth than originally anticipated, helped review the amount of reserves. Last Change suggested that the economy may end the current year with a modest, but not spectacular expansion.

The revised report from the Commerce Department showed that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy increased by 2.1% (seasonally adjusted) compared with the initial estimate at + 1.5%. Experts expect that the economy will expand by 2.0%. But in spite of such a revision, the pace of growth was significantly less than in the second quarter (when GDP grew by 3.9% 0.

Compared with last year, the economy in the third quarter increased by 2.2%, recording the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2014. In general, over the past few years, economic growth oscillates around 2%.

In addition, the report submitted by the Conference Board, showed that US consumer confidence index fell in November to a level of 90.4 points against 99.1 points in October (revised from 97.6 points). Economists had expected the index was 99.5 points. The expectations index fell to 78.6 from 88.7 in October, while the current situation index fell to 108.1 points from 114.6 points.

The share of consumers who believe that business conditions are "good" decreased to 24.4 percent from 26.8 percent, while the number reporting to the contrary decreased to 16.9 percent from 18.3 percent. As regards the situation in the labor market, the percentage of respondents who reported a sufficient number of jobs fell from 22.7 percent to 19.9 percent, while those who argue the opposite, increased to 26.2 percent from 24.6 percent.

It also became known that the share of consumers who expect to improve the conditions for doing business in the next six months, fell to 14.8 percent from 18.1 percent. Meanwhile, the number of pending worsening business conditions rose to 11.0 percent from 10.4 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes rise, decreased from 18.1 percent to 17.2 percent, while the number is expected to decline, rose to 11.8 percent from 10.5 percent.

Support for the euro has had a previous positive statistics in Germany. Recall, the level of business confidence improved unexpectedly in November, reaching more than one-year maximum. Last Modified indicates that the economy remains quite strong despite the weak outlook for exports, a slowdown of the world economy and the scandal around Volkswagen. The results of a monthly survey Ifo showed business climate index rose to 109.0 points compared to 108.2 points in October. The last reading was the highest since June 2014. On average, the experts had expected the index to remain unchanged. The survey was conducted during the first three weeks of November, and the majority of responses were received before the terrorist attacks in Paris. "Prospects for the German economy looks good," - said Andreas Rees, economist at UniCredit. - We expect a return to moderate growth in the end of the year. "Earlier it was reported that German GDP growth in the 3rd quarter slowed to 0.3% from 0.4%. In annual terms, the economy expanded by 1.8% versus 1 6% in the second quarter.

The pound fell against the US dollar, falling below $ 1.5100. Pressure on the pound had political commentaries Central Bank of England. Speaking to British lawmakers Bank of England Carney said that for some time, interest rates will remain at low levels. He added that there is no need for negative interest rates. Meanwhile, the representative of the Bank of England's Haldane said that the balance of risks to the UK economy and inflation is biased towards the downside risks, so that the Central Bank should be ready to lower interest rates in the case of deterioration of the economic outlook. "Given the balance of risks, I stick to a neutral position on the future direction of monetary policy", - he said. In addition, one representative of the Central Bank Kristin Forbes noted that the growth of wages in the country is not yet large enough to annual inflation back to the target level of 2%. Forbes added that did not vote for a rate hike, as there has not yet seen signs of such price pressures, which could bring inflation back to the target level. In general, the statements of politicians indicate that the leadership is in no hurry to increase rates.

A slight effect on the pound has also provided statistics for the UK. Research results Confederation of British Industry (CBI) showed that sales growth in the retail sector slowed again in November, while orders fell for the first time since April. However, the pace of recruitment companies, the retail sector grew at the fastest pace in 17 years, which may indicate a recovery of sales in the next month. According to the index of retail sales in November fell to 7% compared with 19% in October. Experts expect that figure to increase to 25%.

O foco de mercado
  • BOJ keeps policy steady, signals chance of easing in October
  • UK retail sales fell slightly in August
  • Fed lowers interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected
  • SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at -0.75%

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