Notícias do Mercado

12 novembro 2015

American focus: the US dollar stopped growing

The US dollar fell against the euro and the yen after only one senior representative of the Federal Reserve expressed support for raising interest rates during the December meeting, while the market had expected stronger signals.

The dollar fell after the Fed President of New York, William Dudley, in his speech at the Economic Club of New York said he can not predict with precision timing of rising interest rates. Dudley also said that inflation still remains below the Fed's target level and added that the strengthening of the dollar has a negative impact on the export sector, the United States and leads to slower economic growth.

The US dollar has stopped its growth against the major currencies, but still stayed at a seven-month peak after the Federal Reserve Yellen declined to comment on the future of monetary policy.

The dollar weakened after in his speech on Thursday, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen gave no immediate comment on the outlook for the economy or monetary policy.

Today, investors evaluated the comments of a number of Fed officials. Chicago Fed President Evans said that the central bank should speak clearly about the prospects of its monetary policy. Therefore, it was not easy to say, 'Do not raise interest rates in December. " However, his performance in Chicago on Thursday morning suggests that perhaps it is his opinion.

According to the records of speeches by the Fed, most bankers expect a rate hike this year, before the end of which there are only one meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy.

According to Evans, it is desirable "delayed start and a gradual normalization of the economy." Under blurred wording hides Council to postpone raising rates until next year.

Evans wants to see visual evidence of increasing inflation before raising rates. The December meeting of the Committee will be difficult to see them.

Earlier, the US Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending November 7 has not changed compared to 276,000 the previous week. Analysts had expected jobless claims to fall to 270,000 by 6000.

The dollar was supported as positive data on employment in the US last week increased the likelihood of raising interest rates at the December meeting of the Federal Reserve.

The euro earlier fell sharply against the dollar, dropping briefly below $ 1.0700, which was triggered by ECB President Draghi's statements that the current QE program will be reviewed at the December meeting. He also pointed to the existence of obvious downside risks to the euro-zone economy and easing inflationary dynamics. "We will closely monitor the risks to price stability and to assess the sustainability of the factors slowing the growth of inflation to the target level. At the December meeting, we overestimate the degree of stimulation achieved by the monetary policy," - said Draghi. Recall, the ECB aims to maintain inflation at about 2 percent a year. According to the latest data, in October, the rate of inflation remained unchanged. Draghi also confirmed that the program of asset purchases (QE) may be extended for the period after September 2016, when the need arises. In addition, the ECB said that the euro zone economy is recovering slower than the American. He also noted the progress of Greek banks in the matter of raising funds and said that Greek bonds might be part of the QE program, subject to the necessary requirements.

Little impact on the euro had reports on Germany and the euro zone. Final data presented by the Statistics Office Destatis, showed that consumer prices rose last month by 0.3 percent year on year after a zero change in September. On a monthly basis, consumer prices remained unchanged after falling 0.2 percent fall in the previous month. The report also stated that energy prices fell by 8.6 per cent compared with October last year. Excluding energy prices, inflation was at 1.4 percent.

Meanwhile, data from the Statistical Office Eurostat have shown that the seasonally adjusted volume of industrial production in the euro zone fell in September by 0.3% after falling 0.4% in the previous month (revised from -0.5%). Experts forecast a decline in production by 0.1%. In annual terms, production increased by 1.7%. It was expected that production will increase by 1.3% after rising 2.2% in August.

O foco de mercado
  • BOJ keeps policy steady, signals chance of easing in October
  • UK retail sales fell slightly in August
  • Fed lowers interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected
  • SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at -0.75%

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