Notícias do Mercado

9 novembro 2015

American focus: the US dollar moderately lower against major currencies

The US dollar was moderately lower against other major currencies in subdued trade as investors take profits after a rally on Friday to seven-month high on positive US statistics on employment in October.

Dollar fully appreciated after the US Labor Department reported on Friday that the US economy added 271,000 jobs last month against the expected 182,000, the highest since December. The unemployment rate fell to 7.5-year low of 5.0%.

Reliable figures increased the chances that the Fed will raise interest rates at the December meeting, with the result that the dollar will become more attractive for investors looking for profit.

Data on jobs came after the Fed chief Janet Yellen said that the economy is showing good momentum and that the rise of interest rates in December, is a "real possibility" if it will save the vector of development.

Euro moved away from session highs after Livesquawk, quoting informed sources, reported that the ECB is now considering the option of reducing the interest rates on deposits in December, contrary to most forecasts suggesting an increase in QE.

According to the source, currently an emerging consensus on the issue of lowering rates, and the debate is around the size of this reduction. Markets expect the ECB to increase the size of the program QE (now it is 60 billion euros per month).

Reduced rates on deposits would make it more accessible to a greater number of bond purchases under the program of QE.

Markets were assessed comments by the Fed Rosengren, who commented on the latest data and prospects for December's increase.

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren said on Monday that the improvement in the US economy may increase the likelihood of raising key interest rates at the next meeting of the Federal Reserve in December.

"December may be appropriate time to raise rates if the economic situation will correspond to forecasts", - stated in the materials prepared for the speech Rosengren on Monday before the Chamber of Commerce in Portsmouth.

Rosengren pointed to the wording of the Fed statement after a meeting in October, which made it clear that interest rates in December may be increased if Fed officials see the progress in achieving the objectives of the central bank to achieve price stability and employment. Rosengren added that he generally supports the decision.

"I want to emphasize that recent economic data were positive and reflect real improvement in the economy", - said in the text of the speech.

Previously, support for the euro have data for the euro area and Germany. As it became known today, foreign trade surplus in Germany in September rose to 22.9 billion euros. Thus the index jumped in August against 1.5. Exports from Germany amounted to 105.9 billion euros, 4.4% more than in September 2014. With the exception of seasonal and calendar factors exports compared with the previous month increased by 2.6%. Imports increased by 3.9% compared to the same period in 2014 - up to 83 billion euros. With the exception of seasonal and calendar factors imports in September compared to August increased by 3.6%. Economists had expected a surplus of 20 billion euros.

Meanwhile, the Sentix survey results showed that the mood among investors in the euro zone improved considerably in November, exceeding in this case, despite a migration crisis in Europe. According to the index of investor confidence rose in November to a level of 15.1 points compared to 11.7 points in October. The latter value was the highest for the last three months. Economists had expected the index to improve to only 12.7 points. It also became known that the index of current conditions rose in November 16 from 13 in the previous month. Likewise, the expectations index rose to 14.3 points from 10.5 points in October.

O foco de mercado
  • BOJ keeps policy steady, signals chance of easing in October
  • UK retail sales fell slightly in August
  • Fed lowers interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected
  • SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at -0.75%

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