Notícias do Mercado

1 setembro 2015

American focus: the US dollar fell

Dollar falls against against other major currencies after data ISM showed that manufacturing activity in the US in August increased at the slowest rate in more than two years, while concerns about the prospects for economic growth China still exerts pressure on the US currency.

A report published by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), showed that in August, activity in the US manufacturing sector deteriorated sharply, with the average exceeded the forecasts of experts

The PMI index for the US manufacturing in August was 51.1 points versus 52.7 points in July. The latter value was the lowest since August 2013. It was expected that this figure will drop to 52.6 points.

The report also reported that the rate of new orders fell in August to 51.7 from 56.5 previously, while the sub-index of production - to 53.6 from 56.0. Unfilled orders rose to 46.5 from 42.5 in July. The employment index fell from 52.7 to 51.2, while export orders component fell to 46.5 from 48.0. Meanwhile, the index of inventories fell to 48.5 against 49.5 in July, while the price index dropped to 39.0 from 44.0.

The single currency was supported after Eurostat said the unemployment rate in the euro area fell to 10.9% in July from 11.1% in June, becoming the lowest level since February 2012. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate will remain at the same level in July. Meanwhile, it was reported that among the 28 EU countries the unemployment rate fell to 9.5% against 9.6% in June and 10.2% in July 2014. It was the lowest since June 2011.

According to estimates by Eurostat, 23,067 million. Men and women in ES28, of which 17,532 million. Resident in the euro area, were unemployed in July. Compared with June, the number of unemployed decreased by 232 000 people in the EU and 213,000 in the eurozone. Compared with July 2014, unemployment fell by 1.648 million. EU and 1,116,000. In the eurozone.

The pound fell sharply against the US dollar, breaking the mark of $ 1.5300. The main pressure exerted data on business activity in Britain. As it became known on the results of studies Markit / CIPS, the growth of activity in the manufacturing sector slowed slightly in Britain last month, contrary to expectations of further improvement, pointing out that the sector is unlikely to make a solid contribution to GDP for the 3rd quarter. This became known According to the data, the index of manufacturing activity PMI fell to 51.5 in August from 51.9 in July. Experts predicted that the figure will rise to the level of 52.0 points. While the index is still holding above the neutral mark of 50, the survey emphasized the dependence of the UK economy on the service sector and large consumer spending. Meanwhile, the report noted that new orders rose at the fastest pace in five months, received major support from the domestic market. Meanwhile, export orders recorded its fifth consecutive monthly reduction. Company attributed the weakening of external demand to the pound. Also add that the number of unfilled orders fell at the fastest pace since March 2013, and the employment sub-index fell below 50 for the first time since April of 2013. Average costs were reduced as much as possible in the last 16 years because of the growth of the pound and cheaper oil. Average prices continued to rise in the sale, and inflation has remained below 11-month high recorded in July. UK manufacturing sector remains on standby. Production hovers around stagnation, while employment fell for the first time in 26 months. In view of recent developments, it is unlikely that the sector will have considerable support GDP figures for the third quarter, "- said Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit:

The yen has strengthened significantly against the US dollar, reaching a maximum at the same time on August 27 which was due to a new wave of risk aversion, triggered by concerns about China. Posted PMI in the industrial sector in China has confirmed the country's weakening economy. As previously reported, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in August, in line with analysts' expectations, but the last value was the lowest in the past three years. The sub-index of new orders - an indicator of future domestic and external demand - fell to 49.7 in August from 49.9 in July. The sub-index of new export orders fell to 47.7 from 47.9 in July. The sub-index of employment fell to 47.9 from 48.0 in July. Meanwhile, the PMI index for the manufacturing of China Caixin Media Co. and in August, Markit fell to 47.3 against 47.8 in July, its lowest level in more than six years. The index is expected to increase to 53.9.

Experts also note that the dollar remains under pressure due to fears of the impact of the situation in China on expectations of Fed rate. Meanwhile, investors are waiting for the publication of a report on the US labor market, which will shed light on the prospects for Fed rate hikes.

The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar after the release of Canadian data on GDP. Report submitted by Statistics Canada showed that after falling for five consecutive months, the real gross domestic product grew in June by 0.5%. Experts expect that the economy will expand by only 0.2% after falling 0.2% in May. The first estimate of GDP for the 2nd quarter was -0.5% versus a fall of a revised figure for the first quarter at -0.8% and -1.0% forecast experts

Meanwhile, the report stated that the increase in June was broadly based, led by the mining sector, quarrying and oil and gas extraction and, to a lesser extent, wholesale trade, finance and insurance sector as well as arts and entertainment .

Output in manufacturing industries rose by 0.9% in June. Manufacturing, agriculture and forestry, and utilities have also shown an increase. In contrast, the construction sector had registered a decline.

Output in the service sector grew by 0.3% after a zero change in May. Increase was recorded in wholesale trade, finance, security, arts and entertainment in the public sector (education, health and public administration). Zero change was noted in the retail sector.

Mining, oil and gas production expanded by 3.1% in June. Oil and gas production increased by 3.9% after falling 3.5% in April and 0.5% in May. The increase in June, was mainly a result of 9.4 percent increase in the sector of non-traditional oil production. Conventional oil and gas production remained unchanged in June. Mining (except oil and gas) increased by 2.6% compared with May.

After increasing 1.6% in April and a decline of 1.1% in May, wholesale trade rose 1.0% in June. Finance and insurance expanded by 0.7% in June, mainly due to an increase banking services and, to a lesser degree, the financial investment services.

Industrial production grew by 0.4%. Production of non-durable goods increased by 0.9%, primarily due to increased production of chemical, food and textile, apparel and leather products. Meanwhile, durable goods manufacturing did not change in June.

O foco de mercado
  • Eurozone industrial production rose more than expected in August
  • German economy stuck in weak phase, crisis unlikely - Economy Ministry
  • China auto sales fell for a 15th consecutive month in September
  • China's exports fall more than expected in September

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