Richard Franulovich, the head of FX strategy at Westpac, thinks that near-term USD bounce can extend further as last-minute jitters set in about phase one trade deal prospects and deepening political unrest in a couple Asian/Latin hotspots.
Iris Pang, the economist for Greater China at ING, notes that China's headline industrial production growth slowed to 4.7%YoY in October from 5.8% in the previous month.
The ECB will need to widen its monetary policy toolkit to ensure it remains effective, the European Central Bank's Vice President Luis De Guindos said.
In his view, the "toolkit will need to be wider" in the sense that the central bank needs to do more than conventional monetary policy, De Guindos said at BNP Paribas banking conference.
The ECB is in the process of reviewing its monetary policy and the tools it uses to keep inflation near 2% and support the euro zone economy.
In September, the bank pushed euro zone interest rates further into negative territory and said it was restarting its mass bond-buying programme having only wound it down at the end of last year.
It came with no end date in an attempt to reverse the slowdown in the euro zone's economy, nearly a decade after the bloc's debt crisis ripped through Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.
Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that GBP/USD continues to attempt to recover from the 1.2764/ 23.6% retracement.
“It is currently struggling at the 20 day ma at 1.2674. Only above here will leave the market well placed for another attempt at the psychological resistance at 1.3000. Directly above here we have the 200 week ma at 1.3122 and the 1.3187 May high and these remain our short term targets, but we look for the market to be capped here. Failure at 1.2764 will see a slide to the 200 day ma at 1.2702. This guards 1.2582. Below 1.2582 lies the 1.2382 17th July low and the 1.2403 uptrend. The uptrend guards 1.2196/94. Below the current October low at 1.2194 lies the early and mid-August lows at 1.2091/15 and major support lies at the 1.1958 September low.”
According to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.2% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.3% in the EU28 during the third quarter of 2019. In the second quarter of 2019, GDP had grown by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU28.
Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.2% in the euro area and by 1.3% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2019, after +1.2% and +1.4% respectively in the previous quarter. Economists had expected a 1.1% increase in the euro area.
The number of employed persons increased by 0.1% in both the euro area and the EU28 in the third quarter of 2019, compared with the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2019, employment had grown by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU28. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 1.0% in the euro area and by 0.9% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2019, after +1.2% and +1.0% respectively in the second quarter of 2019.
Office for National Statistics said, the quantity bought in October 2019 fell by 0.1% when compared with the previous month, with only fuel and department stores reporting growth. Economists had expected a 0.2% increase.
Year-on-year growth in the quantity bought increased by 3.1% in October 2019, with growth across all sectors except household goods stores. Economists had expected a 3.7% increase
Online sales as a proportion of all retailing increased to 19.2% in October 2019, from the 19.0% reported in September 2019.
In the three months to October 2019, the quantity bought in retail sales increased by 0.2% when compared with the previous three months; this is the lowest growth since April 2018. Food stores were the only main sector to see growth (0.8%) in the three-month on three-month series.
The Chinese yuan could strengthen against the greenback if China and the U.S. sign a so-called phase one trade agreement, according to an economist from Credit Agricole.
“We believe that if this phase one deal is done, including no more tariffs, then there’s room for renminbi to appreciate,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief China economist at the French bank.
“There are of course doubts about this phase one deal. But ultimately we believe there’s an 80% chance that it will be signed in this quarter and if that happens, the renminbi will probably drop to towards 6.90,” he told CNBC.
Chinese currency traded both onshore and offshore have been hovering around 7.0 yuan per dollar for the past month. Onshore and offshore yuan last touched 6.90 against the greenback in August and July, respectively. Movements in the yuan have largely depended on developments in the U.S.-China trade war, now in its second year. The two countries have slapped tariffs on each other’s products worth billions of dollars, which has weighed down the Chinese economy and currency.
But Kowalczyk said weakness in the yuan has “overcompensated” for the economic impact of tariffs. That’s one reason why the currency could appreciate on developments, such as the signing of the “phase one” trade deal, he explained.
Deutsche Bank analysts point out that China’s October economic data released was weaker across the board with industrial production coming in at +4.7% YoY (vs. +5.4% YoY expected), retail sales printing at +7.2% YoY (vs. 7.8% YoY) and the YtD fixed asset ex rural investment sliding to the lowest since at least Feb 1998 (where we have data so likely much longer) to +5.2% yoy (vs. +5.4% yoy).
“The surveyed unemployment rate came in at 5.1% (vs. 5.2% previously). Following the release, China’s National Statistics Bureau spokeswoman Liu Aihua said that China’s overall economic momentum hasn’t changed while the challenges it faces shouldn’t be underestimated before adding that China faces rising cyclical issues and structural conflicts. The NBS also said downside growth pressure has continually intensified and the country should carry out policies to increase economic resilience and meet whole-year economic growth targets. Our strategists think the policy responses will be limited though as China has met their employment target for the year and are still seeing de-leveraging as a policy goal.”
A measure of British house prices edged down in October but there were signs that buyers and sellers were sitting on the sidelines at least until next month's election, a survey published showed.
In the latest sign of weakness in the housing market against a backdrop of Brexit uncertainty, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said its house price index slipped to -5 from -3 in September. That was a touch below the median forecast of -4.
New sales instructions fell for a fourth month but less severely than in September when they tumbled at the fastest pace since Britain voted to leave the EU in a referendum in 2016, and there were signs they would remain weak. New buyer enquiries and agreed sales remained negative too.
But near-term sales expectations improved and sales were expected to be broadly stable over the next three months in most of the country, RICS said.
According to Danske Bank analysts UK retail sales for October could get a boost from Brexit stockpiling.
“In March, hoarding ahead of the original Brexit date similarly contributed to a surge in sales, though the impact will probably not be as pronounced this time. A range of ECB (Chief Economist Lane and Vice President De Guindos) and FOMC speakers (Clarida, Evans, Powell, Williams and Bullard - all voters) will also be scrutinized for any new monetary policy hints, as markets continue to scale back their rate cut expectations. In Scandinavia, markets will keep an eye on the Swedish labour market data for October and the Danish Q3 GDP indicator.”
According to the report from Insee, in October 2019, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) was stable over a month, after a 0.3% downturn in September. This stability resulted from a little increase in manufactured product prices (+0.3% after +1.5%), offset by a drop in services prices (−0.1% after −1.3%) and in food prices (−0.4% after −0.5%). Energy prices were stable over a month, after a 0.3% rise in the previous month. Finally, tobacco prices were unchanged over a month.
Year on year, consumer prices slowed down for the fourth consecutive month: +0.8% in October after +0.9% in September. This slight fall in inflation came from a downturn in energy prices and a slowdown in food prices, partly offset by a lesser drop in those of manufactured products. Finally, services inflation was stable.
Year on year, core inflation increased in October: +1.0% after +0.9% in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell over a month anew (−0.1% after −0.4% in September); year on year, it rose by 0.9%, after +1.1% in the previous month.
According to the report from Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in the third quarter of 2019, the price-adjusted gross domestic product in Germany increased by 0.1% on the second quarter of 2019, after adjustment for seasonal and calendar variations. Economists had expected a 0.1% decrease. According to the most recent calculations, taking into account newly available statistical information, the GDP was down 0.2% in the second quarter of 2019, which is 0.1 percentage points more than first published. Destatis also reports that the increase in the first quarter of 2019 (0.5%) was by 0.1 percentage points larger than published earlier.
The quarter-on-quarter comparison (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted) shows that positive contributions in the third quarter of 2019 mainly came from consumption, according to provisional calculations. Compared with the second quarter of 2019, household final consumption expenditure increased, and so did government final consumption expenditure. Exports rose, while imports remained roughly at the level of the previous quarter. Also, gross fixed capital formation in construction was up on the previous quarter. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment, however, was lower than in the previous quarter.
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.0996
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 96816 contracts (according to data from November, 13) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5380);
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2827
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 6 is 30153 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (5255);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 31725 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (2301);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.05 versus 1.04 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 13
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
|Raw materials||Closed||Change, %|
|Index||Change, points||Closed||Change, %|
O material postado é apenas para fins informativos e confiança nele pode levar a perdas. Os resultados passados não são um indicador confiável de resultados futuros. Por favor, leia o nosso aviso legal na integra.
Aviso de Risco: Negociar Forex e CFDs na margem acarreta um alto nível de risco e pode não ser adequado para todos os investidores. Os CFDs são instrumentos complexos e apresentam um alto risco de perder o dinheiro rapidamente devido à alavancagem. 69% das contas de investidores de retalho perdem o dinheiro quando negociam CFDs por meio deste provedor. Deve considerar se entende como funcionam os CFDs e se pode correr o risco de perder o seu dinheiro. Antes de negociar, deve ter em consideração o seu nível de experiência e situação financeira. A TeleTrade esforça-se para lhe fornecer todas as informações necessárias e medidas de proteção, mas se os riscos ainda não estiverem claros para si, por favor, procure aconselhamento independente.
© 2011-2019 TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd
A TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd está registada como uma Empresa de Investimento do Chipre (CIF) sob o número de registo HE272810 e licenciada pela Comissão de Valores Mobiliários do Chipre (CySEC) sob o número de licença 158/11.
A empresa opera de acordo com a Diretiva de Mercados de Instrumentos Financeiros (MiFID).
As informações contidas neste site são apenas para fins informativos. Todos os serviços e informações fornecidos foram obtidos de fontes consideradas fidignas. A TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd ("TeleTrade") e/ou terceiros provedores de informação fornecem os serviços e informações sem qualquer tipo de garantia. Ao usar essas informações e serviços, concorda que sob nenhuma circunstância a TeleTrade terá qualquer responsabilidade perante qualquer pessoa ou entidade por qualquer perda ou dano parcial ou total causado pela confiança em tais informações e serviços.
A TeleTrade coopera exclusivamente com instituições financeiras regulamentadas para segurança dos fundos dos clientes. Por favor, consulte toda a lista dos bancos e prestadores de serviços de pagamento encarregados do tratamento dos fundos dos clientes.
Por favor, leia os nossos Termos de Uso.
Para maximizar a experiência de navegação dos nossos visitantes, a TeleTrade utiliza cookies nos serviços web. Ao continuar navegando neste website, concorda com o uso de cookies. Poderá alterar o consentimento de cookies ou ler a declaração de cookies aqui.
A TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd presta actualmente os seus serviços numa base transfronteiriça, nos Estados do EEE (excepto na Bélgica) ao abrigo do regime de passaporte MiFID, e em determinados países terceiros . A TeleTrade não fornece os seus serviços para residentes ou nacionais dos EUA.
Os CFD são instrumentos complexos e apresentam um elevado risco de perda rápida dinheiro devido ao efeito de alavancagem. 69% dos investidores de retalho perdem capital quando negoceiam com este provedor. Deve considerar se compreende como funcionam os CFD e se pode correr o elevado risco de perda do seu dinheiro.