Notícias do Mercado

29 setembro 2022
  • 09:51

    ECB's Rehn: ECB to get to neutral rate by Christmas

    European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Olli Rehn repeated on Thursday that the ECB needs significant rate hikes in the coming meetings, as reported by Reuters. Rehn further explained either a 75 or a 50 basis points rate hike would be considered to be significant, per Reuters.

    Additional takeaways

    "I expect the ECB to get to the neutral rate by Christmas."

    "Prospect of recession in the euro area has grown more likely."

    "Indiscriminately increasing expenditure does not help in the fight against inflation."

    "Gas supplies have clearly been weaponised by Russia in an energy war."

    Market reaction

    These comments don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the shared currency's performance against its rivals. As of writing, the EUR/USD pair was down 0.75% on the day at 0.9660.

  • 09:48

    GBP/USD will struggle to hold rallies to the 1.08/1.09 area – ING

    In a dramatic policy U-turn, the Bank of England is resuming gilt purchases. Yet, economists at ING expect GBP/USD to struggle to surpass the 1.08/09 area. 

    Mixed news for the pound

    “BoE gilt intervention is being seen as mixed news for sterling. The positive is that the BoE has taken action to address financial stability concerns at the long end of the gilt market.”

    “Die-hard sterling bears will remain so, citing ‘fiscal dominance’ in that the BoE has suspended its planned QT, and by buying gilts the BoE effectively provides room for the government to continue with its aggressive fiscal programme. That is why we have seen HM Treasury make every effort to reassure BoE independence.”

    “We doubt cable holds gains to 1.08/1.09 and the bias has got to be for a 1.0350/1.0500 retest.”

     

  • 09:32

    Italy Producer Price Index (MoM): 2.8% (August) vs previous 5%

  • 09:32

    Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 36.9% to 40.1% in August

  • 09:32

    Portugal Consumer Confidence: -32.7 (September) vs previous -31.6

  • 09:31

    Portugal Business Confidence down to 1.6 in September from previous 1.7

  • 09:20

    WTI Oil could easily see a move back towards $90 – TDS

    There is finally bullish news. WTI crude prices are back near $82. While strategists at TD Securities believe the risks have tilted to the upside, it is too early to take aggressive strategic longs.

    Stars aligning for oil bulls

    “If OPEC+ cuts the rumored one million bbl/s of production starting in November and Washington starts refilling the SPR, then this market could well move into a material deficit. This likely means that money managers could continue covering shorts and start taking out some limited longs in the not too distant future, implying a rally which could easily see a move back toward $90/b resistance.”

    “Given that there is the possibility of a deep recession resulting from restrictive action by key central banks and continued uncertainty surrounding when China returns to normality, after COVID shutdowns, we don’t see a sustained rally.”

     

  • 09:18

    USD/CAD rallies to mid-1.3700s amid broad-based USD strength, sliding oil prices

    • USD/CAD catches aggressive bids on Thursday and is supported by a combination of factors.
    • A fresh leg up in the US bond yields, the risk-off impulse revives demand for the greenback.
    • Sliding crude oil prices undermines the loonie and provides an additional boost to the major.

    The USD/CAD pair attracts fresh buying near the 1.3600 mark on Thursday and stalls the previous day's sharp retracement slide from its highest level since May 2020. The intraday positive move lifts spot prices to levels just above mid-1.3700s during the early European session and is sponsored by a combination of factors.

    Following the previous day's dramatic turnaround from a new two-decade high, the US dollar makes a solid comeback and turns out to be a key factor offering support to the USD/CAD pair. Apart from this, a fresh leg down in crude oil prices undermines the commodity-linked loonie and provides an additional boost to spot prices.

    As investors digest the Bank of England's intervention to stabilize the market for gilts, expectations for faster rate hikes by the Fed allow the US Treasury bond yields to reverse a part of the overnight slump. This, along with the risk-off impulse, revives demand for the safe-haven greenback and offers support to the USD/CAD pair.

    The market sentiment remains fragile amid concerns that a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed will push the economy into recession. Investors also seem concerned that a deeper economic downturn will dent fuel demand, which, to a larger extent, offsets worries about a tight global supply. This, in turn, fails to assist the black liquid to capitalize on the overnight strong recovery from the vicinity of a multi-month low.

    The aforementioned fundamental factors suggest that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside. This, in turn, supports prospects for the resumption of the recent appreciating move witnessed over the past two weeks or so. Market participants now look forward to Thursday's economic releases from the US and Canada, which, along with oil price dynamics, should provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CAD pair.

    Technical levels to watch

     

  • 09:17

    USD/CNH now faces dwindling chances of a test of 7.3000 – UOB

    Further gains to 7.3000 in USD/CNH now seem to have lost some momentum, comment FX Strategists at UOB Group Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia.

    Key Quotes

    24-hour view: “We expected ‘further rapid rise in USD’ and stated that ‘the levels to watch are at 7.2300 and 7.2500’. Our view was not wrong as the rally in USD took out both levels (high of 7.2668). However, the subsequent outsized sell-off from the high came as a surprise (low of 7.1450). While further volatility is not ruled out, USD is likely to trade within a narrower range of 7.1450/7.2250.”

    Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected USD to strengthen for more than 2 weeks now. As USD rose, in our latest update from yesterday (28 Sep, spot at 7.2050), we indicated that the breach of the key resistance at 7.1960 could carry USD higher to 7.2500, possibly 7.3000. USD subsequently surged to 7.2668 before plunging to a low of 7.1450. While our ‘strong support’ at 7.1400 (no change in level from yesterday) is not breached, after the sharp drop from the high, the odds of USD rising to 7.3000 have diminished. Looking ahead, a breach of 7.1400 would indicate that USD strength has come to an end.”

  • 09:14

    EUR/USD: Bears regain control below the 0.9700 mark

    • EUR/USD gives away part of Wednesday’s strong gains to 0.9750.
    • The dollar resumes the uptrend and weighs on the risk complex.
    • Germany flash CPI, EMU final Consumer Confidence next of note.

    EUR/USD now loses some upside traction and revisits the mid-0.9600s following Wednesday’s uptick to the 0.9750 area.

    EUR/USD looks to USD, data

    EUR/USD regains downside traction and sheds around a cent from Wednesday’s bull run to the 0.9750 zone.

    Indeed, USD-bulls return to the market and push the USD Index (DXY) to daily highs near the 114.00 barrier, hurting at the same time the sentiment surrounding the risk-linked galaxy.

    In line with their US peers, the German 10-year bund yields print humble gains in the wake of the opening bell in the old continent and trade at shouting distance from recent multi-year peaks.

    Interesting calendar on this side of the Atlantic, as EMU’s final Consumer Confidence gauge and the Economic Sentiment are due seconded by preliminary inflation figures in Germany for the month of September.

    In the NA session, final GDP Growth Rate will be in the centre of the debate ahead of Initial Claims and speeches by FOMC’s Bullard, Mester and Daly.

    What to look for around EUR

    EUR/USD comes under pressure after climbing as high as the 0.9750 area on Wednesday on the back of the technical correction in the dollar.

    In the meantime, price action around the European currency is expected to closely follow dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence. The latter has been exacerbated further following the latest rate hike by the Fed and the persevering hawkish message from Powell and the rest of his rate-setters peers.

    Furthermore, the increasing speculation of a potential recession in the region - which looks propped up by dwindling sentiment gauges as well as an incipient slowdown in some fundamentals – adds to the sour sentiment around the euro

    Key events in the euro area this week: EMU Final Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment, Germany Flash Inflation Rate (Thursday) – EU Emergency Energy Meeting, Germany Retail Sales, France, Italy, EMU Flash Inflation Rate, Germany Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate (Friday).

    Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation of the ECB hiking cycle. Italian post-elections developments. Fragmentation risks amidst the ECB’s normalization of its monetary conditions. Impact of the war in Ukraine and the persistent energy crunch on the region’s growth prospects and inflation outlook.

    EUR/USD levels to watch

    So far, the pair is retreating 0.77% at 0.9656 and faces the immediate contention at 0.9535 (2022 low September 28) ahead of 0.9411 (weekly low June 17 2002) and finally 0.9386 (weekly low June 10 2002). On the upside, a break above 0.99750 (weekly high September 28) would target 1.0050 (weekly high September 20) en route to 1.0197 (monthly high September 12).

  • 09:00

    ECB's Centeno: A faster than warranted increase in rates may backfire

    European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Mario Centeno argued on Thursday that a faster increase in rates than warranted may backfire, as reported by Reuters.

    "I do not see a deanchoring of inflation expectations," Centeno added and said that higher interest rates would push up funding costs and diminish fiscal space. "Normalisation will not be constrained by fiscal considerations," Centeno further noted.

    Market reaction

    The EUR/USD pair continues to push lower following these remarks and it was last seen losing 0.8% on the day at 0.9655.

     

  • 08:56

    OPEC+ began discussions around output cut for October meeting – Reuters

    Citing sources familiar with the matter, Reuters reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, have started to discuss a potential output cut for the next meeting.

    One of the sources told Reuters that a reduction in oil output was "likely." The group is scheduled to meet on October 5.

    Market reaction

    Crude oil prices edged slightly higher from daily lows on this headline but the market reaction was relatively subdued. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was trading at $80.80, where it was down 1.3% on a daily basis.

  • 08:56

    USD/JPY: Upside momentum gathers traction – UOB

    According to FX Strategists at UOB Group Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia, further gains in USD/JPY need to surpass 145.00.

    Key Quotes

    24-hour view: “Our expectations for USD to ‘rise above 145.00’ yesterday did not materialize as it retreated from a high of 144.87 (low has been 143.89). Upward pressure has eased and the current price movement is likely part of a consolidation phase. In other words, USD is likely to trade sideways for today, expected to be between 143.70 and 144.70.”

    Next 1-3 weeks: “Our update from two days ago (27 Sep, spot at 144.30) still stands. As highlighted, upward momentum is beginning to build but USD has to close above 145.00 before a sustained advance is likely. The odds for USD to close above 145.00 are not high but they would remain intact as long as 143.40 (‘strong support’ level was at 142.80) is not breached.”

  • 08:55

    EUR/USD: Powerful underlying downtrend to persist – ING

    EUR/USD has found solid support around the 0.95 area so far. Nevertheless, the pair is unlikely to stage a significant rally, according to economists at ING.

    Any rallies above 0.97 to prove brief

    “The European Central Bank (ECB) is talking tough and will probably deliver on the 75 bps of hikes expected for the 27 October meeting. We doubt this provides much support for the euro, however.”

    “0.9500 has proved a good support area for EUR/USD after all and the BoE action did provide a brief reprieve to non-dollar currencies across the board. But we see nothing yet to reverse this powerful underlying downtrend in EUR/USD and expect any rallies above 0.97 to prove brief.”

     

  • 08:52

    USD Index regains the smile and re-targets 114.00

    • The index picks up pace and advances sharply to 113.75/80.
    • US yields regain upside traction and reclaim ground lost.
    • Final Q2 GDP Growth Rate, Initial Claims next on tap in the docket.

    The greenback, when tracked by the USD Index (DXY), leaves behind part of Wednesday’s steep decline and advances to the 113.75/80 band on Thursday.

    USD Index now looks to data

    Following Wednesday’s acute retracement, the index resumes the uptrend and advances to the upper-113.00s amidst the resumption of the weak note in the risk complex and the march north in US yields across the curve.

    Indeed, the dollar leaves behind Wednesday’s corrective move and refocuses on the 114.00 neighbourhood, as investors continue to reprice the tighter-for-longer stance from the Federal Reserve. Wednesday’s “technical” knee-jerk in the buck was somehow expected as per the extreme overbought conditions of DXY in past sessions.

    In the US calendar, the final Q2 GDP Growth Rate will take centre stage along with usual weekly Claims and speeches by St. Louis Fed J.Bullard (voter, hawk), Cleveland Fed L.Mester (voter, hawk) and San Francisco Fed M.Daly (2024 voter, hawk).

    What to look for around USD

    Bulls regain the upper hand after Wednesday’s correction and prompt the dollar to re-shift its focus to the 114.00 hurdle and beyond.

    Propping up the dollar’s underlying positive stance appears the firmer conviction of the Federal Reserve to keep hiking rates until inflation looks well under control regardless of a likely slowdown in the economic activity and some loss of momentum in the labour market.

    Looking at the more macro scenario, the greenback also appears bolstered by the Fed’s divergence vs. most of its G10 peers in combination with bouts of geopolitical effervescence and occasional re-emergence of risk aversion.

    Key events in the US this week: Final Q2 GDP Grow Rate, Initial Claims (Thursday) – PCE/Core PCE, Personal Income/Spending. Final Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday).

    Eminent issues on the back boiler: Hard/soft/softish? landing of the US economy. Prospects for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve vs. speculation over a recession in the next months. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China persistent trade conflict.

    USD Index relevant levels

    Now, the index is advancing 0.92% at 113.75 and a breakout of 114.76 (2022 high September 28) would expose 115.00 (round level) and then 115.32 (May 2002 high). On the downside, the next contention aligns at 109.35 (weekly low September 20) seconded by 107.68 (monthly low September 13) and finally 107.58 (weekly low August 26).

  • 08:47

    Forex Today: Is the market correction over already?

    Here is what you need to know on Thursday, September 29:

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) lost over 1% on Wednesday, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell 5.5% and Wall Street's main indexes gained between 1.9% and 2%. The market correction, however, seems to be over already with the DXY rising above the mid-113.00s and the US stock index futures trading deep in negative territory. Business and consumer sentiment data from the euro area and HICP figures from Germany will be looked upon for fresh impetus during the European session. In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the final reading of the annualized Gross Domestic Product growth for the second quarter.

    During the Asian trading hours, Reuters reported that China's finance ministry was planning to issue about 2.5 trillion yuan ($347.4 billion) in government bonds in the fourth quarter. This headline helped the Shanghai Composite Index limit its daily losses on Thursday but markets remain risk-averse early Thursday.

    EUR/USD gained more than 100 pips on Wednesday but already retraced a large portion of the previous day's rally. Several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers noted that 75 basis points hikes in rates would be appropriate in October. Nevertheless, the souring market mood and the renewed dollar strength don't allow the pair to shake off the bearish pressure. As of writing, EUR/USD was down 0.9% on the day at 0.9645.

    Following the Bank of England's (BoE) intervention in the gilt market, GBP/USD fluctuated wildly and ended up closing the day in positive territory above 1.0800.  The BoE said that it would carry out temporary purchases of long-dated UK government bonds to restore orderly market conditions. The UK central bank, however, noted that the MPC's annual target of £80 billion stock reduction will remain unaffected. Meanwhile, several news outlets reported that the UK government had no plans of reversing its fiscal policy and that Finance Minister Kawsi Kwarteng would not resign. When asked about the market reaction to the mini-budget early Thursday, British Prime Minister Liz Truss said that she believed that the government had done the right thing. As markets keep a close eye on the latest developments in the UK gilt markets, GBP/USD loses 1% on the day below 1.0800. 

    With market focus staying on the British pound and bond markets, USD/JPY registered small daily losses on Wednesday. Supported by the rebound in US yields, USD/JPY trades in positive territory slightly below 115.00 on Thursday.

    Gold capitalized on the sharp decline seen in the US yields on Wednesday and rose nearly 2%, posting its largest one-day gain since March. With the 10-year US yield rising over 3% early Thursday, gold failed to build on Wednesday's gains and was last seen falling 1% on the day at $1,643.

    Bitcoin rose nearly 2% on Wednesday but lost its bullish momentum before testing $20,000. At the time of press, BTC/USD was fluctuating in a narrow range above $19,000. Ethereum struggled to make a decisive move in either direction on Wednesday and close the day virtually flat. ETH/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades within a touching distance of $1,300. 

  • 08:43

    AUD/USD slides further below mid-0.6400s amid notable USD demand, risk-off impulse

    • AUD/USD comes under renewed selling pressure and is pressured by a combination of factors.
    • Mixed Australian CPI report for August, the risk-off impulse weighs on the risk-sensitive aussie.
    • A goodish pickup in the US bond yields revives the USD demand, which contributes to the slide.

    The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight solid bounce of over 150 pips from its lowest level since April 2020 and meets with a fresh supply on Thursday. The pair extends its intraday descent through the early European session and slides back below mid-0.6400s, hitting a fresh daily low in the last hour.

    The Australian dollar started losing ground after the first monthly consumer inflation report showed that price pressures may be starting to ease. In fact, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the headline CPI eased to a 6.8% YoY rate in August from 7% in the previous month. Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the gauge edged up to 6.2% during the reported month. This, along with resurgent US dollar demand, prompts fresh selling around the AUD/USD pair.

    Following the previous day's dramatic turnaround from a new two-decade high, the USD regains positive traction amid a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields. Investors seem convinced that the Fed will hike interest rates at a faster pace to curb inflation. The bets were reaffirmed by the recent hawkish remarks by a slew of FOMC officials, which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the US bond yields. Apart from this, the risk-off impulse further underpins the safe-haven buck.

    The market sentiment remains fragile amid worries that a more aggressive policy tightening by major central banks will lead to a deeper economic downturn. Adding to this, the risk of a further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been fueling recession fears and taking its toll on the global risk sentiment. This is evident from a fresh leg down in the equity markets, which forces investors to take refuge in traditional safe-haven assets and weighs on the risk-sensitive aussie.

    The fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside and attempted recoveries might still be seen as a selling opportunity. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the final Q2 GDP print and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Traders will also take cues from speeches by FOMC members, which, along with the US bond yields, should drive the USD and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair.

    Technical levels to watch

     

  • 08:32

    GBP/USD to fall close to parity over the next six months – Wells Fargo

    Economists at Wells Fargo expect further significant weakness in the pound. They forecast GBP/USD around parity over the next six months.

    BoE rate hikes to fall well short of the Fed

    “With the UK still seen falling into recession and CPI inflation expected to peak lower than previously, we expect Bank of England rate hikes to fall well short of the Fed, or tightening currently implied by market participants.”

    “We expect the pound to fall close to parity versus the US dollar over the next six months.”

     

  • 08:32

    NZD/USD: A drop below 0.5565 loses traction – UOB

    In light of the recent price action, a breakdown of 0.5565 in NZD/USD appears out of favour for the time being, suggest FX Strategists at UOB Group Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia.

    Key Quotes

    24-hour view: “Yesterday, we held the view that NZD ‘could dip to 0.5600 first before the risk of a rebound would increase’. NZD dropped more than we expected but it rebounded strongly from the next support at 0.5565 (high has been 0.5733). The sharp and swift rebound appears to be running ahead of itself and NZD is unlikely to advance much further. For today, we expect NZD to trade within a range of 0.5630/0.5740.”

    Next 1-3 weeks: “We turned negative in NZD 2 weeks ago. In our latest narrative from yesterday (28 Sep, spot at 0.5635), we indicated that NZD “is likely to break 0.5600 but it remains to be seen whether NZD can decline to the next support level at 0.5565”. NZD subsequently dropped to 0.5565 before rebounding strongly. Downward momentum has waned and the strong rebound amidst oversold conditions suggests the chance of NZD breaking below 0.5565 is low. That said, only a breach of 0.5755 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level from yesterday) would indicate that NZD is not weakening further.”

  • 08:27

    UK PM Truss: We are working very closely with BoE

    When asked if she is ashamed of the government's budget, "I think we should remember the situation the country was facing," British Prime Minister Liz Truss said on Thursday, as reported by Reuters.

    Truss further reiterated that they are working closely with the Bank of England. "We have seen difficult markets around the world, I am clear that the government has done the right thing," the PM added. "As the PM, I am prepared to take difficult decisions and do the right thing."

    Market reaction

    The British pound continues to weaken against its rivals following these comments and the GBP/USD pair was last seen losing 1% on the day at 1.0780.

  • 08:03

    Copper Price Analysis: Break below $6,844 to open up support at $6,300/6,269 – Credit Suisse

    Copper is back below its 55-day moving average (DMA). With an existing top already in place, analysts at Credit Suisse stay biased towards further weakness.

    The core risk still leans lower

    “Copper (LME) is back below its 55-DMA, currently seen at $7,736, and the industrial metal remains in a well-defined technical downtrend.”

    “With a large top still in place and the market below falling long-term moving averages, we stay biased towards further weakness and we note that a break below $6,844 would open up support seen next at $6,300/6,269.”

     

  • 08:01

    Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.6%, below expectations (1.7%) in September

  • 08:01

    Spain HICP (MoM) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.6%) in September

  • 08:00

    Spain HICP (YoY) below expectations (10.1%) in September: Actual (9.3%)

  • 08:00

    Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (10.1%) in September: Actual (9%)

  • 08:00

    Turkey Economic Confidence Index: 94.3 (September)

  • 07:56

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD south-run appears more compelling – Confluence Detector

    • Gold price keeps reversal from the key hurdle, drops back towards yearly low.
    • Risk-aversion, hawkish central banks joined firmer yields to weigh on XAU/USD.
    • US Q2 GDP eyed for intraday clues, recession, Russia and central banks are in focus.
    • Bears can keep reins unless crossing $1,660 resistance confluence.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) braces for the fresh yearly low, snapping a two-day uptrend, as the US dollar bulls return to the table after a brief absence the previous day. Fears of global recession and hawkish central bank actions are the major drivers that recently propelled the greenback. On the same line could be the upbeat US trade data and doubts over the Bank of England (BOE) and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to tame the economic slowdown woes. It’s worth noting that the chatters surrounding heavy rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) joined the BOE’s surprise bond action to trigger the metal’s biggest daily jump in six months the previous day.

    Given the sour sentiment and the XAU/USD pullback from the key hurdles, the bears are likely to keep the reins. However, a close watch over the aforementioned risk catalysts and the final readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) appears necessary for clear directions.

    Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles to capitalize on corrective bounce amid rate-hike jitters

    Gold Price: Key levels to watch

    The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price retreats from multiple strong resistances, suggesting a smooth run towards the south.

    That said, a convergence of the previous weekly low and the SMA 100 on the hourly play, near $1,640, appears the immediate support to watch during the quote’s further weakness.

    Following that, it can quickly decline towards the joint of the Pivot Point one week S1, close to $1,627.

    During the XAU/USD downside past $1,627, the $1,600 appears the favorite among the gold bears.

    Alternatively, $1,646 acts as the wall of resistance comprising Pivot Point one month S2, Fibonacci 38.2% on one day and 5-DMA.

    If the metal prices cross the $1,646 hurdle, a run-up towards $1,653 can’t be ruled out. However, a convergence of 5-HMA, middle Bollinger on one-hour and Fibonacci 23.6% on one day and one week could challenge the buyers afterward.

    It’s worth observing that the bullion’s run-up beyond $1,653 could aim for the last defense of bears, namely $1,660 that comprises the 10-DMA and Fibonacci 38.2% on one week.

    Here is how it looks on the tool

    fxsoriginal

    About Technical Confluences Detector

    The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

  • 07:55

    GBP/USD remains depressed near daily low, around 1.0800 amid resurgent USD demand

    • GBP/USD meets with a fresh supply on Thursday and erodes a major part of the previous day’s gains.
    • The reaction to the BoE’s move to buy government bonds fades amid concerns about rising UK debt.
    • A goodish pickup in the US bond yields revives the USD demand and contributes to the intraday slide.

    The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong rally of over 175 pips and comes under renewed selling pressure on Thursday. The intraday downfall extends through the early European session and drags spot prices momentarily below the 1.0800 mark.

    The overnight reaction to the Bank of England's intervention fizzles out rather quickly amid the lack of confidence in the UK government’s ability to manage the ballooning public debt. This continues to undermine the British pound, which, along with the emergence of some US dollar dip-buying, is exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

    It is worth mentioning that the UK central bank announced on Wednesday that it will start buying long-dated UK government bonds to help restore orderly market conditions. The move, however, fails to ease jitters over the UK’s tax-cut plan, which could stretch Britain's finances to their limits and derail the BoE's efforts to contain sky-high inflation.

    The USD, on the other hand, stalls its sharp retracement slide from a new two-decade high touched on Wednesday amid a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields. Growing acceptance that the Fed will continue to hike interest rates at a faster pace to combat stubbornly high inflation continues to act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the greenback.

    The GBP/USD pair, meanwhile, erodes a major part of the previous day's gains and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak. In the absence of any relevant economic data from the UK, traders on Thursday will take cues from a speech by BoE Deputy Governor David Ramsden. Apart from this, the US macro releases would be looked upon for a fresh impetus.

    The US economic docket features the release of the final Q2 GDP print and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data later during the early North American session. This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members and the US bond yields, will drive the greenback demand and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the GBP/USD pair.

    Technical levels to watch

     

  • 07:46

    USD/MXN: Only a Banxico surprise is likely to move the peso significantly – Commerzbank

    Compared with other EM currencies the peso was so far able to stand up quite well against USD. Today, Banxico is expected to hike rates by 75 basis points. However, a lot seems have been priced in by the market. Therefore, the peso is unlikely to benefit from a hawkish central bank, economists at Commerzbank report.

    Upside risks for USD/MXN

    “There seems to be unanimous agreement amongst analysts polled by Bloomberg that the Mexican central bank Banxico will hike its key rate for the third consecutive time by 75 bps to then 9.25% and it is also fully priced in on the market. The continued price pressure moreover points towards a hawkish statement in which Banxico signals further rate hikes.”

    “We assume that Banxico will continue its tightening course. It will probably not want its speed to drop below that of the Fed so as to support the peso, as continued peso weakness would further intensify price pressure. The market seems to expect key rates to reach 10.4% by year-end. Overall, a lot seems to have been priced in by the market so that only a Banxico surprise is likely to move the peso significantly.”

    “The expected momentum is likely to be dampened as a result of the recession expected for the USA. The quarrels about the trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico, the so-called USMCA, about Mexico’s energy policy also constitute a fly in the ointment.”

    “In the current market environment with continued USD strength, we, therefore, continue to see upside risks for USD/MXN.”

     

  • 07:43

    ECB's Muller: Significant rate hike needed in October

    European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Madis Muller told Bloomberg on Thursday that the ECB's monetary policy is still accommodative and they need to move further with tightening.

    "Inflation calls for significant rate hikes," Muller noted and added something similar to the last two hikes would be appropriate.

    Key takeaways

    "It is too early to say how much in basis points."

    "We should have a QT discussion relatively soon."

    "The euro rate is one of the metrics we're looking at."

    Market reaction

    These comments failed to help the shared currency and EUR/USD was last seen losing 0.7% on the day at 0.9667.

  • 07:29

    EUR/USD: Inflation might become an issue for the euro again – Commerzbank

    The inflation data from Germany, Spain and Belgium will give a first taste of the eurozone inflation data for September tomorrow. In the opinion of economists at Commerzbank, inflation could cause trouble for the euro again.

    Inflation as a euro risk

    “If the economy cools significantly over the coming weeks and if the ECB begins to conclude from that that this might increase inflation pressure to such an extent that more cautious rate hikes might be required, inflation might very soon become an issue for the euro again.”

    “If the FX market does not share the ECB’s view there is a risk of higher inflation, which the ECB is not countering with an adequate tightening of monetary policy, putting significant pressure on the single currency.”

     

  • 07:24

    GBP/USD: Sterling to face downside risks going forward – Commerzbank

    GBP/USD is displaying a lackluster performance. Economists at Commerzbank expect the pair to see another leg lower.

    Sterling likely to resume its downward trend quite soon

    “High volatility at the short end makes me doubt that the financial market will give the government and the Bank of England until November to find an answer to the turbulence. And even then, there would still be the risk that the measures announced will not be sufficient to regain market confidence.”

    “I see the urgent need for confidence building measures and as long as the government does not give in, this will include, first and foremost, the BoE’s clear commitment to hike rates significantly to limit the increasing inflationary risks due to the announced tax cuts, sterling weakness and the new bond purchases. Otherwise, sterling is likely to resume its downward trend quite soon again.”

    “For now, we continue to see significant GBP risks going forward.”

     

  • 07:17

    USD/JPY traces firmer yields to approach 145.00, Japan stimulus, US GDP in focus

    • USD/JPY picks up bids to refresh intraday high, reversing the previous day’s losses.
    • Recession fears, hawkish central banks renew upside momentum of Treasury bond yields.
    • Japan considers aid package to ease utility bill burden amid rising energy cost.
    • US GDP could entertain buyers but BOJ’s intervention tests upside momentum.

    USD/JPY remains on the front foot around 144.65, refreshing intraday high while paring the previous day’s losses ahead of Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the yen pair tracks the firmer Treasury bond yields while also cheering the hopes of stimulus at home, as well as respecting the US dollar’s broad recovery.

    That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields pare the biggest daily loss in six months while adding 11 basis points (bps) to 3.82% by the press time. It’s worth noting that the benchmark bond coupons reversed from the highest levels since 2010 the previous day.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) also benefits from the firmer yields, as well as the market’s risk for risk-safety, while printing 0.70% intraday gains around 113.50. It should be observed that the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies reversed from the 20-year high the previous day after the Bank of England (BOE) announced a surprise bond-buying program.

    Among the major risk-negative headlines are fears of global stagflation and recession in the Eurozone, recently backed by World Bank President David Malpass. Further, doubts about the Bank of England’s (BOE) capacity to restore the British economic performance while keeping the recently criticized fiscal plan weigh on the sentiment. Additionally, the hawkish commentary from the global central bankers, including those from Europe and the US, join the discomfort from China’s efforts to avoid recession, which seem to spoil the mood and favor the DXY.

    At home, Japan readies more steps to ease the pain from the rising electricity bills, a government spokesperson signaled on Thursday. The diplomat underscored, per Reuters, underscoring the pressure it faces in addressing the burden on households of higher prices for imports from a weak yen. The news adds that Electricity bills have risen about 20% in the past year for households and by about 30% for businesses, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told a briefing, adding that such increases were becoming a "heavy burden" for consumers.

    Amid these plays, the stock futures remain sluggish and the Asia-Pacific equities dwindle.

    Moving on, updates surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) efforts to defend the yen, as well as the Japanese government’s stimulus, will be important for the USD/JPY pair. Also, the final readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to confirm -0.6% annualized figure, will be important to watch.

    Technical analysis

    Unless providing a daily closing beyond a three-week-old resistance line, around 144.90 by the press time, USD/JPY buyers remain cautious. The downside move, however, needs validation from the 21-DMA support surrounding 143.15.

     

  • 07:16

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to suffer fresh selling pressure on failure to hold $1,642

    Gold (XAU/USD) retreats to the $1,650 area. A break below $1,642 would clear the way towards the $1,620-$1,615 region, FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani reports.

    The $1,662 area should now act as a pivotal point for gold

    “A sustained strength beyond the $1,662 area, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent fall from the monthly peak, could trigger a fresh bout of a short-covering move and lift spot prices to the $1,676-$1,678 supply zone. The latter comprises 50% Fibo. level and the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which if cleared decisively will suggest that the XAU/USD has formed a near-term bottom. This, in turn, will set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move and allow bulls to aim back to reclaim the $1,700 round-figure mark.”

    “The 23.6% Fibo. level, around the $1,642 area, now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any subsequent decline might continue to find support near the $1,620-$1,615 region or the YTD low. A convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag gold towards the $1,600-$1,590 area. Some follow-through selling should pave the way for an extension of the downward trajectory towards the $1,567-$1,565 intermediate support en route to the $1,530-$1,528 region and the $1,500 psychological mark.”

     

  • 07:09

    RBI Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, hiking more to limit second-order effects on CPI

    Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meets on Friday, September 30 at 04:30 GMT to discuss interest rates. Here you can find the expectations as forecast by the economists and researchers of five major banks regarding the upcoming central bank's decision. 

    The RBI is expected to hike the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90%.

    ING

    “It is likely the Bank will hike its key repo rate by 30 bps to 5.7%. As inflation rose from 6.7% in July to 7% in August, policymakers should continue to feel the pressure and increase repo rates in an attempt to cool the economy.”

    ANZ

    “We expect the RBI to deliver another 50 bps hike. Our view is based primarily on the US Fed’s hawkish outlook that now signals a much higher terminal fed funds rate. This outlook, combined with renewed USD strength, is a development that is unlikely to escape the policy calculus of the RBI. The bilateral strength of the dollar is becoming increasingly difficult to address via intervention in the FX market. It will likely translate into higher imported inflation. Separately, the RBI will also be providing its revised GDP growth and inflation forecasts. We also expect a paring of their growth forecast for FY23, given a weaker than expected start to the year as well as a softer outlook for global growth.”

    Standard Chartered

    “We now expect the RBI to hike the repo rate by 50 bps to 5.9% (from 35 bps previously) and stay vigilant on upside risks to its inflation projections. We also raise our terminal repo rate forecast to 6.50% from 6% previously; we forecast a 35 bps hike in December (from 25 bps previously) and a final 25 bps hike at the February 2023 meeting (from flat previously).” 

    TDS

    “Despite USD/INR above 80, we don't think the RBI will rely on big rate hikes to defend the INR. Further, the RBI needs to consider the growth trajectory from a rapid increase in rates. Q2 GDP surprised to the downside at 13.5% YoY, short of RBI's forecast at 16.2% YoY which may concern the RBI. This gives the RBI a reason to step down to 35 bps.”

    SocGen

    “While we expect the RBI to raise the policy rate by another 50 bps to 5.9%, in line with its desire to frontload rate hikes, the central bank may not be too far from ending its hiking cycle, with the focus then shifting to growth given the stubbornly high unemployment rate.”

     

  • 07:04

    EUR/GBP aims to recapture 0.9000 amid BOE’s bond-buying program, UK GDP eyed

    • EUR/GBP is accelerating towards 0.9000 on BOE’s policy easing measure to stabilize financial markets.
    • The BOE has announced a 13-day bond-buying program worth GBP five billion/each day.
    • Hawkish comments from ECB Lagarde will keep the shared currency bulls on the upside.

    The EUR/GBP pair has rebounded firmly after a short-lived pullback to near 0.8960 in the early European session. The asset is expected to refresh its day’s high above 0.8980 and will ultimately march towards the psychological hurdle of 0.9000. On a broader note, the asset is oscillating in a range of 0.8855-0.9068, and an upside breakout is expected.

    A surprise announcement of a bond-purchase program by the Bank of England (BOE) has cleared that the respective economy doesn’t have the stomach to fight inflation while simultaneously keeping the financial markets stable. After sensing immense volatility in the bond market, the BOE chose the route of injecting liquidity into the economy through a bond-buying program. An immediate 13-day long program of buying government bonds worth GBP five billion regularly will offset the ongoing fight against inflation to a certain point.

    The UK households and BOE policymakers are already facing economic turmoil due to ultra-hot inflation and the infusion of more liquidity into the economy will worsen the situation further.

    Now, investors are shifting their focus toward the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which is due on Friday. The annual and quarterly data is expected to remain steady at 2.9% and -0.1% respectively.

    On the Eurozone front, the hawkish commentary from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde strengthened the shared continent bulls. ECB Lagarde sees a rate hike by 125 basis points (bps) in upcoming several meetings.

    Going forward, investors will focus on the Eurozone Consumer Confidence data. As per the preliminary estimates, the sentiment data will remain steady at -28.8. It is worth noting that the economic data has got vulnerable each passing month over the past year.

     

     

     

     

  • 07:01

    South Africa Private Sector Credit came in at 7.86%, above forecasts (6.8%) in August

  • 07:01

    South Africa M3 Money Supply (YoY) above forecasts (7.9%) in August: Actual (8.15%)

  • 07:00

    Denmark Industrial Outlook: -9 (September) vs previous -1

  • 06:56

    ECB’s Simkus: 50 basis points is minimum for October

    ECB’s Simkus: 50 basis points is minimum for October

    more to come

  • 06:45

    Natural Gas Futures: Bounce has further legs to go

    Considering advanced prints from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest rose by nearly 2K contracts after two daily drops in a row on Wednesday. On the other hand, volume remained choppy and shrank by around 102.6K contracts.

    Natural Gas remains supported by the 200-day SMA

    Wednesday’s gains in prices of natural gas were on the back of rising open interest, paving the way for the continuation of the rebound in the very near term. So far, prices of natural gas face decent contention around the 200-day SMA, today near the $6.50 mark per MMBtu, a zone coincident with recent lows.

  • 06:37

    EUR/USD Price Analysis: Reverses from weekly hurdle towards 0.9655 support confluence

    • EUR/USD holds lower ground while paring the biggest daily loss in six months.
    • Bearish MACD signals, steady RSI add strength to the downside bias targeting 100-HMA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
    • Bulls need validation from 0.9800 to retake control.

    EUR/USD consolidates Wednesday’s heavy gains as sellers flirt with 0.9680-85 heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the major currency pair pulls back from a one-week-old descending resistance line while dropping back towards the 20-year low marked the previous day.

    The bearish MACD signals and an absence of oversold RSI (14) add strength to the downside bias.

    However, a convergence of the 100-HMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the September 19-28 downturn offers a tough nut to crack for the EUR/USD sellers around 0.9655.

    Following that, the previous resistance line from Monday, near 0.9615 by the press time, could challenge the pair bears before directing them to the recently flashed multi-year low near 0.9535.

    Alternatively, recovery moves need to cross the aforementioned resistance line, close to 0.97365 at the latest, to convince the intraday buyers.

    Even so, the previous day’s high at around 0.9750 and September 22 swing low near 0.9805-10 could challenge the EUR/USD bulls before giving them the throne.

    Overall, EUR/USD is likely to remain on the bear’s radar but the 0.9655 level may test intraday sellers.

    EUR/USD: Hourly chart

    Trend: Further downside expected

     

  • 06:35

    Gold Futures: Door open to extra recovery

    Open interest in gold futures markets rose by just 577 contracts on Wednesday after two consecutive daily drops according to preliminary readings from CME Group. Volume followed suit and went up by almost 89K contracts, reversing at the same time two straight daily pullbacks.

    Gold now targets $1,688

    Prices of the ounce troy of gold added to the weekly rebound on Wednesday amidst rising open interest and volume. That said, the continuation of the bounce appears on the table in the very near term and with the immediate up barrier at the weekly high at $1,688 (September 21).

  • 06:26

    GBP/USD: Diminished bets for a drop to 1.0000 – UOB

    In the opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia, the probability of GBP/USD to drop to the parity zone seems to have lost traction for the time being.

    Key Quotes

    24-hour view: “Yesterday, we held the view that GBP ‘is likely to edge lower but a sustained decline below 1.0630 is unlikely’. We did not expect the volatile trade as GBP plummeted briefly to 1.0539 before rocketing to a high of 1.0917 during NY hours. Further volatility is not ruled out, albeit likely within a narrower range of 1.0670/1.0970.”

    Next 1-3 weeks: “Three days ago (26 Sep, spot at 1.0600), we highlighted that in view of the impulsive downward acceleration from last Friday, a further decline in GBP to 1.0000 is not ruled out. Yesterday (28 Sep), GBP surged to a high of 1.0917. Downward momentum has waned and a breach of 1.1000 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level from yesterday) would indicate that the weakness in GBP from 2 weeks ago has stabilized. All in, after yesterday’s price movement, the probability of GBP dropping to 1.0000 this time round has diminished considerably.”

  • 06:18

    Crude Oil Futures: Further rebound looks unlikely

    CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted traders trimmed their open interest positions for the third session in a row on Wednesday, this time by around 6.4K contracts. Volume, instead, increased for the second consecutive day, now by more than 150K contracts.

    WTI: Next on the upside comes $90.00 and above

    Wednesday’s advance in prices of the WTI was on the back of shrinking open interest, which hints at the view tha extra recovery seems not favoured in the very near term. In the meantime, the monthly high at $90.37 (September 5) emerges as the next target of note for bulls.

  • 06:14

    NZD/USD stays pressured around 0.5700 as upbeat ANZ numbers battle sluggish mood

    • NZD/USD snaps two-day uptrend, retreats towards yearly low.
    • New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence, Activity Outlook flashed upbeat numbers for September.
    • Market sentiment remains choppy even as yields regain upside traction.
    • Bearish bias remains more favorable amid recession fears, US GDP eyed.

    NZD/USD remains sidelined around 0.5690, recently bouncing off the daily low, as buyers and sellers jostle over the mixed catalysts during early Thursday in Europe. That said, the quote’s latest weakness contrasts with the broad pessimism while the upbeat data at home fail to convince the bulls.

    Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) unveiled September’s Activity Outlook and Business Confidence figures for New Zealand during the early Asian session. As per the release, the ANZ Business Confidence improved to -36.7 versus -52.1 expected and -47.8 prior whereas the Activity Outlook gauge also rose to -1.8% from -6.3% market forecasts and -4.0% previous readings.

    Elsewhere, China’s Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhouxu said, per Reuters, “We Chinese will not capitulate. We will not sit and do nothing while our country's interests are being harmed,” suggesting further Sino-American tussles. Also from the Chinese were headlines that the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) first increase in the onshore yuan fix in nine days and plans to issue 2.5 trillion yuan in government bonds in Q4.

    It should be noted that the markets’ doubts about the Bank of England’s (BOE) capacity to restore the British economic performance while keeping the recently criticized fiscal plan weigh on the sentiment. Additionally, the hawkish commentary from the global central bankers, including those from Europe and the US, joins the looming energy crisis in Europe and Russia’s hesitance to respect the Western pressure to exert additional downside pressure on the major currency pair.

    Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields pare the biggest daily loss in six months and allow the US Dollar Index (DXY) to jump back towards the 20-year high marked the previous day. It’s worth noting that the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains while struggling to keep the bounce off a 21-month low of late.

    Looking forward, the NZD/USD traders need clear directions and hence headlines surrounding the economic slowdown and the final readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to confirm -0.6% annualized figure, will be important to watch. If the US GDP number surprises to the upside, NZD/USD may have further declines to track.

    Technical analysis

    NZD/USD defends Wednesday’s upside break of the 0.5700 resistance confluence comprising the 100-HMA and a downward sloping trend line from September 13, now acting as immediate support. The pair’s further upside, however, needs to cross the latest swing high surrounding 0.5740 to recall the NZD/USD buyers. Following that, the September 22 swing low near 0.5800 will be in focus.

     

  • 06:03

    EUR/USD: Still scope for a test of 0.9500 – UOB

    FX Strategists at UOB Group Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia suggest EUR/USD could still visit the 0.9500 region in the next weeks.

    Key Quotes

    24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘the bias for EUR is tilted to the downside but a clear break below 0.9530 is unlikely’. While our view was not wrong as EUR subsequently dipped to a low of 0.9534, we did not expect the lift-off from the low that sent EUR surging to a high of 0.9750. The sharp and rapid rise appears to be overdone and EUR is unlikely to advance much further. For today, we expect EUR to trade sideways between 0.9620 and 0.9750.”

    Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held a negative EUR for more than 2 weeks now. In our latest narrative from Monday (26 Sep, spot at 0.9630), we held the view that EUR ‘could continue to weaken, possibly to 0.9500’. Yesterday (28 Sep), EUR dropped to 0.9534 before jumping to test our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.9750. As the ‘strong resistance’ is not clearly breached, there is still a chance (albeit a slim one) for EUR to drop to 0.9500. Looking ahead, a breach of 0.9750 would indicate that EUR could trade sideways within a broad range for a period of time.”

  • 05:56

    S&P 500 Futures seesaw after bouncing off 21-month low, yields jump back towards multi-year high

    • Market sentiment remains sluggish after a volatile day.
    • Stock futures, Asia-Pacific equities trade mixed, yields regain upside momentum.
    • Headlines surrounding China, hawkish central bank keep bears hopeful amid doubts over BOE’s action.
    • German inflation data, US GDP could entertain traders but risk-aversion is likely to prevail.

    Global markets fade the previous day’s optimism as traders await fresh clues to believe in the policymakers’ cautious optimism during early Thursday.

    While portraying the mood, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields pare the biggest daily loss in six months and allow the US Dollar Index (DXY) to jump back towards the 20-year high marked the previous day. It’s worth noting that the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains while struggling to keep the bounce off a 21-month low of late.

    Recently, China’s Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhouxu said, per Reuters, “We Chinese will not capitulate. We will not sit and do nothing while our country's interests are being harmed,” suggesting further Sino-American tussles.

    Also from the Chinese were headlines that the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) first increase in the onshore yuan fix in nine days and plans to issue 2.5 trillion yuan in government bonds in Q4.

    Elsewhere, the markets’ doubts about the Bank of England’s (BOE) capacity to restore the British economic performance while keeping the recently criticized fiscal plan weigh on the sentiment. Additionally, the hawkish commentary from the global central bankers, including those from Europe and the US, joins the looming energy crisis in Europe and Russia’s hesitance to respect the Western pressure to exert additional downside pressure on the major currency pair.

    That said, traders are currently waiting for Germany’s headline inflation data, namely the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), to determine immediate market moves amid upbeat expectations from the release, 10.0% YoY versus 8.8% prior. Following that, readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to confirm -0.6% annualized figure, will be important to watch clear directions.

  • 05:55

    Asian Stock Market: Rebounds firmly as yields cool down, oil crosses $80.00, US GDP eyed

    • Asian indices have defended the downside momentum as US yields cooled off.
    • The Chinese government is planning to purchase bonds worth 2.5 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter.
    • Oil prices have recaptured the $80.00 hurdle as EIA reported a decline in oil inventories.

    Markets in the Asian domain have picked significant bids after a decline after a few trading sessions. Asian indices have bounced back sharply after the 10-year benchmark US Treasury yields plunged. After hitting a high of 4% for the first time since 2010, yields have fallen sharply to nearly 3.76%. This has underpinned the risk-on impulse and risk-sensitive assets are having a ball.

    At the press time, Japan’s Nikkei225 jumped 0.92%, ChinaA50 added 0.38%, and Hang Seng surged more than 1%.

    The US dollar index (DXY) witnessed a steel fall after failing to sustain above the crucial hurdle of 114.50. As investors have started acknowledging the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will slow down the pace of hiking interest rates post bigger rate hikes in the first week of November and mid of December, the DXY is losing its appeal.

    Moreover, investors are also punishing the DXY amid lower consensus for the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As per the consensus, the growth rate in the US economy has declined by 0.6% in the second quarter on an annualized basis.

    Meanwhile, the Chinese Finance ministry is planning to issue government bonds worth 2.5 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter, as reported by Reuters. The decision is supposed to safeguard the markets from any further turmoil as the economy is not expected to display a decent growth rate amid zero tolerance for Covid-19 spread and the real estate crisis.  

    On the oil front, oil prices have rebounded firmly after remaining in the grip of bears. The black gold has overstepped the psychological resistance of $80.00 after displaying a decline in the US oil inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The oil stockpiles declined by 0.215 million barrels for the past week ending September 23.

     

     

  • 05:34

    China Vice Foreign Minister Ma: We will not sit and do nothing while our country's interests are being harmed

    "We Chinese will not capitulate. We will not sit and do nothing while our country's interests are being harmed," Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhouxu said in response to a Reuters question at a Thursday news conference to discuss Chinese diplomacy in the decade since Xi assumed power.

    The news gains importance as Ma is considered to be among contenders to replace Wang Yi as foreign minister in an upcoming leadership reshuffle.

    Key quotes

    Going forward, Chinese diplomats will continue to overcome all obstacles, and always be the devoted guardians of the interests of our country and our people.

    A global survey released this week by the Washington-based Pew Research Center found that public opinion towards China in the United States and other advanced economies had turned 'precipitously more negative' under Xi.

    Also read: USD/CNH Price Analysis: Fades bounces off weekly support below 7.2000

  • 05:28

    USD/CNH Price Analysis: Fades bounces off weekly support below 7.2000

    • USD/CNH struggles to defend the recovery moves, retreats from intraday high.
    • Steady RSI suggests further grinding towards the north.
    • 12-day-old ascending trend line, 50-SMA adds to the downside filters.
    • Bullish bias remains intact beyond 7.1000, buyers aim for a fresh all-time high.

    USD/CNH reverses the previous day’s pullback from the record high during early Thursday morning in Europe, despite recent inaction around 7.1880.

    In doing so, the offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) pair bounces off a horizontal area comprising multiple lows marked since Monday amid a steady RSI (14). However, bearish MACD signals and the buyer’s inability to keep the reins beyond the 7.2000 psychological magnet challenge the pair’s upside momentum.

    It should be noted, however, that the pair’s pullback moves below the aforementioned immediate support near 7.1460-50 are likely to be challenged by an upward sloping support line from September 13, close to 7.1280 by the press time.

    Also acting as a downside filter is the 50-SMA level surrounding 7.1125.

    Even if the quote drops below 7.1125, the September 22 swing high near 7.1060 and the 7.1000 psychological magnet could act as the last defenses for the USD/CNH buyers.

    Alternatively, recovery moves need to stay beyond the 1.2000 mark to convince buyers to aim for the multiple hurdles near 1.2500.

    Following that, the recently flashed record high near 7.2600 and the 7.3000 psychological magnet will be in focus.

    USD/CNH: Four-hour chart

    Trend: Bullish

     

  • 05:18

    GBP/USD turns sideways around 1.0800, focus shifts to US/UK GDP data

    • GBP/USD is expected to resume its upside journey after concluding its correction to near 1.0800.
    • To revive UK’s financial stability, the BOE announced a bond-buying program worth GBP 65 billion.
    • Does BOE really not have the stomach to fight inflation while simultaneously keeping financial stability?

    The GBP/USD pair is displaying a lackluster performance in the Tokyo session. The asset has turned sideways in a narrow range of 1.0782-1.0800 after dropping from the critical hurdle of 1.0900. A failed attempt of overstepping the barricades at 1.0900 brought a correction in the cable, however, a bullish impulsive move after the conclusion of a pullback cannot be ruled out.

    The surprise move of the bond-purchase program by the Bank of England (BOE) to bring stability to the financial markets has started displaying its consequences. It is worth mentioning that risk-sensitive currencies are performing now as the US dollar index (DXY) has recorded an intermittent top of around 115.00. However, the sterling gains are poor in comparison with other currencies.

    The BOJ will purchase GBP five billion worth of long-dated bonds consecutively for 13 days to safeguard the economy from the financial turmoil. In times, when households in the UK are facing the headwinds of higher price pressures and BOE policymakers are already putting their blood and sweat to tame inflation, sheer liquidity infusion could offset a significant impact.

    Does it state that the BOE really does not have the stomach to fight inflation while simultaneously keeping financial markets stable? Well, it will be consequences of minting more money which will display the capacity later.

    On the economic data front, Friday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data will be keenly watched. The annual and quarterly data is expected to remain steady at 2.9% and -0.1% respectively.

    Meanwhile, the DXY is expected to remain sideways further as investors are awaiting the release of the US GDP data. As per the market consensus, the annualized US GDP will continue its de-growth pattern for this quarter by 0.6%.

     

     

     

     

     

  • 05:06

    AUD/USD: Risk-aversion, softer Aussie inflation directs bears to sub-0.6500 zone ahead of US GDP

    • AUD/USD remains pressured around intraday low, drops back towards two-year bottom.
    • Australia’s first-ever monthly CPI suggests easing inflation pressure.
    • Yields pare the biggest daily fall in six months as geopolitical tension remains intact.
    • China’s plans to issue government bonds probe sellers, final readings of Q2 US GDP eyed.

    AUD/USD pares intraday losses around 0.6490, recently bouncing off daily lows, as traders await fresh clues to defend the latest pullback moves.

    That said, downbeat prints of Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) joined the risk-off mood to weigh on the Aussie pair during early Thursday. The same joined firmer US Treasury yields to consolidate the previous day’s rebound from the two-year low.

    As per the first monthly CPI data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the headline price pressure eased in August to 6.8% from 7.0% in July. The same joins the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recently cautious statements to challenge the AUD/USD buyers after the data release.

    Elsewhere, Wednesday’s risk-on mood and China’s efforts to propel the domestic markets in an attempt to overcome slowdown fears seem to favor the recent rebound in the US Treasury yields, as well as the US dollar. On the same line could be the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) first increase in the onshore yuan fix in nine days and plans to issue 2.5 trillion yuan in government bonds in Q4.

    It should be noted, however, that the markets’ doubts about the Bank of England’s (BOE) capacity to restore the British economic performance while keeping the recently criticized fiscal plan weigh on the sentiment, as well as the AUD/USD prices. Additionally, the hawkish commentary from the global central bankers, including those from Europe and the US, joins the looming energy crisis in Europe and Russia’s hesitance to respect the Western pressure to exert additional downside pressure on the major currency pair.

    Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields pare the biggest daily loss in six months and allow the US Dollar Index (DXY) to jump back towards the 20-year high marked the previous day. It’s worth noting that the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses and fades bounce off a 21-month low of late.

    Moving on, the final readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to confirm -0.6% annualized figure, could entertain AUD/USD traders. However, risk catalysts are more important and hence the Fedspeak, as well as headlines from China may direct short-term pair moves clearly.

    Technical analysis

    A sustained reversal from a the two-week-old resistance line, near 0.6530 at the latest, redirects AUD/USD towards the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the AUD/USD pair’s April-August moves, around 0.6355.

     

  • 04:37

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD sees cushion around $1,650 after a corrective move, US GDP buzz

    • Gold price is expected to find bids around $1,650.00 followed by a conclusion of the corrective move.
    • It seems that the DXY has made an immediate top as the Fed will trim the rate hike pace.
    • The annualized US GDP may display de-growth by 0.6% consecutively.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) is experiencing a healthy correction in the Tokyo session after witnessing a bumper rally. The precious metal is expected to find significant bids around the immediate cushion of $1,650.00 as the downside bias is not backed by momentum. So after the conclusion of the pullback move, the bright metal will resume its upside journey.

    The rationale behind the mild correction in the gold prices is the less-confident pullback in the US dollar index (DXY). The DXY plunged after failing to sustain above the critical hurdle of 144.50. For the time being, the DXY’s top is in sight parallel to the interest rates peak at 4.6% guided by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

    It is worth noting that Fed’s interest rate peak is not far from current interest rates at 3.-3.325% after a scrutiny of the ongoing velocity of hiking interest rates. The Fed is expected to maintain the terminal rate at 4.6% for a longer period till it finds a slowdown in the price pressures for several months.

    On Thursday, investors will keep the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on their radar. Considering the preliminary estimates, the annualized US GDP will continue its de-growth pattern for this quarter by 0.6%.

    Gold technical analysis

    Gold prices are declining towards the horizontal support placed from Monday’s high at $1,649.83 on an hourly scale. The precious metal is declining gradually, therefore, it is expected to capitalize on the above-mentioned horizontal support. This will indicate a change in polarity and the bright metal will display a firmer impulsive move.

    The yellow metal is holding above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,641.58, which indicates that the short-term uptrend is intact. While the bright metal has slipped below the 200-EMA at $1,655.00 but is expected to recapture it sooner.

    Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates more upside ahead. Also, the momentum oscillator may find support at 60.00.

    Gold hourly chart

     

  • 04:17

    USD/JPY Price Analysis: Inventory adjustment is in progress, 50-EMA a key support

    • A tad longer inventory adjustment process after a juggernaut rally favors a distribution.
    • The 50-EMA has acted as major support for the greenback bulls.
    • An oscillation in the 40.00-60.00 range by the RSI (14) still holds a consolidation bet.

    The USD/JPY pair has witnessed a pullback move after dropping to near 144.00. Broadly, the asset is testing the downside break of the chartered territory plotted in a narrow range of 144.40-144.90. Signs of exhaustion in the upside trend are lucid and transparent and the greenback bulls could surrender their grip going forward.

    On a four-hour scale, the major is auctioning in an inventory adjustment process, which indicates a tad longer consolidation period. It is critical to state that the adjustment process is an accumulation or distribution by institutional investors. Odds favor an inventory distribution as the asset is displaying signs of momentum loss.

    It is ‘fit and proper to claim that the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 113.80, at the time of writing, has been a major cushion for the greenback bulls. Once a volatile event has already halted the harmony but luckily overstepped it again. A consecutive surrender of the 50-EMA will weaken the greenback.

    The 200-EMA at 141.20 is scaling higher, which indicates that the long-term trend is still solid.

    Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates a continuation of rangebound moves ahead.

    For a decisive bearish reversal, the asset is required to drop below the previous week’s low at 140.35. An occurrence of the same will drag the asset towards the August 30 low at 138.05 followed by the August 23 low at 135.81.

    Alternatively, the greenback bulls could drive the asset higher after overstepping the previous week’s high at 145.90, which will drive the asset towards the August 1998 high at 147.67. A breach of the latter will send the major towards the psychological resistance of 150.00.

    USD/JPY four-hour chart

     

     

  • 03:57

    EUR/USD drops back below 0.9700 as yields rebound ahead of US GDP, German inflation

    • EUR/USD pares the biggest daily gains since March as risk-aversion returns to the table.
    • Yields, DXY reverse pullback from multi-year high amid hawkish central bankers, looming recession.
    • Europe versus Russia tension is likely to exert downside pressure on prices.
    • Germany’s HICP may not impress pair buyers unless US GDP disappoints.

    EUR/USD sellers are up and roaring as sour sentiment joins firmer yields to renew the downside during early Thursday, after a day full of surprises and positive performance. That said, the major currency pair takes offers to renew the intraday low near 0.9670 while reversing the previous day’s bounce off the 20-year low, also consolidating the biggest daily jump in six months.

    Wednesday’s risk-on mood and China’s efforts to propel the domestic markets in an attempt to overcome slowdown fears seem to favor the recent rebound in the US Treasury yields, as well as the US dollar.

    On the same line could be the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) first increase in the onshore yuan fix in nine days and plans to issue 2.5 trillion yuan in government bonds in Q4.

    Additionally, the markets’ doubts about the Bank of England’s (BOE) capacity to restore the British economic performance while keeping the recently criticized fiscal plan weigh on the EUR/USD prices. Further, the hawkish commentary from the global central bankers, including those from Europe and the US, joins the looming energy crisis in Europe and Russia’s hesitance to respect the Western pressure to exert additional downside pressure on the major currency pair.

    It should be noted that the hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers and the Bank of England’s (BOE) bond-buying helped the EUR/USD to rebound the previous day.

    Also read: EUR/USD struggles to extend rebound beyond 0.9700, German Inflation, US GDP eyed

    Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields pare the biggest daily loss in six months and allow the US Dollar Index (DXY) to jump back towards the 20-year high marked the previous day. It’s worth noting that the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses and fades bounce off a 21-month low of late.

    Looking forward, Germany’s headline inflation data, namely the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), could direct immediate EUR/USD moves amid upbeat expectations from the release, 10.0% YoY versus 8.8% prior. Following that, readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to confirm -0.6% annualized figure, will be important to watch clear directions.

    To sum up, EUR/USD weakness is likely to continue even if the German/US data challenge the pair’s downtrend. The reason could be linked to the risk-off mood and the US dollar’s safe-haven status.

    Technical analysis

    The bullish MACD signals and the firmer RSI (14) keep the EUR/USD buyers hopeful. That said, the 21-SMA, currently around 0.9640 offers immediate support ahead of the resistance-turned-support line from September 13, near the 0.9600 threshold.

    Alternatively, a convergence of the downward sloping trend line from August 23 and the 50-SMA, around 0.9800 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers.

     

  • 03:30

    Sources: China plans to issue 2.5 trillion yuan in government bonds in Q4 – Reuters

    China's finance ministry plans to issue about 2.5 trillion yuan ($347.4 billion) in government bonds in the fourth quarter, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

    The news also adds that the ministry has also urged local governments to complete issuing the roughly 500 billion yuan in special bonds by the end of October under carryover quotas from previous years, per the source.

    Earlier in the day, China’s Securities Times mentioned that the yuan is unlikely to continue depreciating rapidly. “As long as market expectations can be stabilized, and as the policies to support domestic economic growth continue to take effect, it will be hard for the dollar index to bring huge volatility to the yuan,” added the Chinese media.

    Market reaction

    AUD/USD renews intraday low around 0.6480 despite the price-positive news. The reason could be linked to the market’s risk-off mood and reversing of the yields.

    Also read: AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls take on the bears in key correction territory

  • 03:30

    Commodities. Daily history for Wednesday, September 28, 2022

    Raw materials Closed Change, %
    Silver 18.906 2.78
    Gold 1659.95 1.85
    Palladium 2142.6 3.72
  • 03:23

    Japan’s Matsuno: Reviewing whether to take additional steps

    Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said on Thursday that they are reviewing whether to take additional steps to curb rise in electricity cost in upcoming economic stimulus package.

    The policymaker also mentioned, “Japan will maintain close contact with allies, including the US, to monitor and deal with North Korea.”

    “North Korea’s multiple missile launches are unacceptable,” adds Japan’s Matsuno.

    On the same line could be the news that US Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with South Korea's President Yoon to discuss south Korean-Japanese relations.

    Market reaction

    Although the risk-negative news weighs on the S&P 500 Futures and allow the yields to regain upside momentum, the USD/JPY prices remain pressured around 144.20 by the press time.

  • 03:14

    USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bounces off 10-DMA as bulls approach 0.9800

    • USD/CHF pares the biggest daily loss in 15 weeks, snaps two-day downtrend.
    • Firmer oscillators, rebound from 10-DMA direct buyers towards 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
    • Two-week-old ascending trend line adds to the downside filters.
    • Descending trend line from mid-May acts as the key upside hurdle.

    USD/CHF picks up bids to refresh intraday high around 0.9790 during Thursday’s Asian session while printing the first daily gain in three. In doing so, the Swiss currency (CHF) pair rebounds from the 10-DMA, as well as the weekly low, to pare the biggest slump since mid-June.

    The pair’s sustained bounce off the 10-DMA support and the firmer RSI, not overbought, joins the bullish MACD signals to direct buyers toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May-August downside, near the 0.9800 threshold.

    Following that, tops marked in early September and July, around 0.9870 and 0.9885 respectively, will challenge the pair’s upside momentum.

    If at all the USD/CHF bulls keep reins past 0.9885, a downward sloping resistance line from May, around 0.9930, could act as the last defense of the pair sellers.

    Meanwhile, a downside break of the 10-DMA support of 0.9758 won’t be a welcome card for the USD/CHF sellers as a 12-day-old support line, close to 0.9725 by the press time, will test the declines.

    Overall, USD/CHF is likely to remain firmer but the upside appears limited.

    USD/CHF: Daily chart

    Trend: Further upside expected

     

  • 03:02

    USD/CAD ignores firmer oil prices to regain 1.3650, US/Canada GDP eyed

    • USD/CAD picks up bids to snap two-day downtrend.
    • US Dollar traces rebound in Treasury yields amid sluggish session.
    • Hawkish Fedspeak, looming energy crisis and doubts over BOE keep buyers hopeful.
    • Canada’s monthly GDP, final Q2 GDP for the US will join Fedspeak to entertain buyers.

    USD/CAD recalls buyers after a two-day absence as the quote pokes 1.3650 during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Loonie pair benefits from the market’s sour sentiment and firmer yields while paying little heed to the upbeat prices of Canada’s key export item WTI crude oil.

    WTI crude oil prices rise for the third consecutive day, up 0.40% intraday near $81.85 by the press time, as fears of a supply crunch supersede the recession woes. That said, the previous day’s risk-on mood and China’s efforts to propel the domestic markets in an attempt to overcome slowdown fears also seem to favor the black gold prices.

    Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) marked the first increase in the onshore yuan fix in nine days and favored the sour sentiment. On the same line could be the markets’ doubts about the Bank of England’s (BOE) capacity to restore the British economic performance while keeping the recently criticized fiscal plan.

    Furthermore, the looming energy crisis in Europe and Russia’s hesitance to respect the Western pressure joins firmer US data and hawkish Fedspeak to also propel the USD/CAD prices.

    That said, the US international trade deficit narrowed by $2.9 billion to $87.3 billion in August from $90.2 billion in July. Details suggest that the Exports dropped for the first time since January while Imports marked the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Further, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that the baseline scenario right now includes a 75 basis points (bps) rate hike in November and a 50 bps increase in December, as reported by Reuters. Additionally, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans also emphasized the need to address inflation and tried to renew the US dollar buying but could not due to the softer yields.

    Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields pare the biggest daily loss in six months and allow the US Dollar Index (DXY) to jump back towards the 20-year high marked the previous day. It’s worth noting that the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses and fades bounce off a 21-month low of late.

    Moving on, the monthly Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for July, expected -0.1% versus 0.1% prior, could keep the USD/CAD buyers hopeful. The run-up could gain more pace if the final readings of the US Q2 GDP improved from -0.6% initial estimates.

    Technical analysis

    A fortnight-old support line, around 1.3600 by the press time, restricts short-term USD/CAD downside considering the bullish MACD signals and upbeat RSI.

     

  • 02:36

    AUD/JPY aims to overstep 94.00 as Australian monthly CPI slips to 6.8%

    • AUD/JPY is eyeing to cross 94.00 amid a decline in Aussie's August CPI to 6.8%.
    • Monthly CPI covers updated prices for between 62-73% of the weight of the quarterly CPI basket.
    • The unscheduled bond-buying program and fading impact of BOJ’s intervention have weakened yen.

    The AUD/JPY pair is marching north to surpass the critical hurdle of 94.00 amid a first-time release of the Australian monthly inflation indicator. August's reading has remained lower at 6.8% vs. July's reading of 7%.

    In order to provide a timelier indication of price pressures, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has introduced a monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator that inculcates the same data used in quarterly CPI mechanics. Each month will include updated prices for between 62 and 73 percent of the weight of the quarterly CPI basket, as reported by ABS.

    It is worth noting that the quarterly Australian inflation data was recorded at 6.1% for the second quarter. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is continuously working on taming the soaring price pressures. RBA Governor Philip Lowe has already accelerated its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.35%.

    On Wednesday, the aussie dollar rebounded sharply after the release of better-than-projected Aussie monthly Retail Sales data. The economic data landed at 0.6%, higher than the estimates of 0.4%, but lower than the prior release of 1.3%.

    Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is losing its grip on the risk barometer as the impact of the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s intervention in the currency markets is fading away. It seems that the BOJ is highly needed to restrict policy easing to safeguard yen from a further impulsive wave of depreciation. Also, an unscheduled bond-purchase program by the BOJ has weakened the yen bulls.

     

     

  • 02:36

    AUD/NZD rebounds towards 1.1400 after Australia inflation, New Zealand’s ANZ data

    • AUD/NZD picks up bids to probe two-day downtrend after Australia, New Zealand statistics.
    • Australia’s first monthly inflation data, ANZ sentiment figures for September teased buyers.
    • Cautious mood, firmer yields challenge the upside momentum.

    AUD/NZD extends rebound from the intraday low after Australia and New Zealand both flashed important data during early Thursday. That said, the cross-currency pair takes the bids to 1.1390 by the press time.

    Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the first ever monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July and August. On the other hand, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) unveiled September’s Activity Outlook and Business Confidence figures for New Zealand.

    Australia’s CPI rose 7.0% and 6.8% in July and August respectively. Further, ANZ Business Confidence improved to -36.7 versus -52.1 expected and -47.8 prior whereas the Activity Outlook gauge also rose to -1.8% from -6.3% market forecasts and -4.0% previous readings.

    It should be noted, however, that the market’s sour sentiment and fears surrounding China, Australia’s biggest customer, test the AUD/NZD buyers.

    The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is another central bank, in addition to the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Bank of England (BOE), to defend the domestic currency, namely the yuan. It’s worth noting that the PBOC has recently intervened multiple times in the market and is likely to do so today as well as to defend the yuan amid fears of economic slowdown, led by the covid-led lockdowns.

    It should be noted that the BOE’s bond-buying triggered the market’s risk-on mood and drowned the yields the previous day. That said, the US Treasury bond yields recover and the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses by the press time, which in turn probes the AUD/NZD pair buyers.

    Technical analysis

    Unless breaking a three-week-old support line, near 1.1330 by the press time, AUD/NZD remains on the way to October 2013 high near 1.1580.

     

  • 02:33

    AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls take on the bears in key correction territory

    • AUD/USD bears are lurking but bulls may not be done yet. 
    • The price has corrected a significant portion of the bearish impulse. 

    AUD/USD rallied in a correction on Wednesday and there could be more to come should the markets continue to offload long positions of the greenback into the fixes and month end this week. The following illustrates the bias on a daily time frame into the remaining days and sessions for the month. 

    AUD/USD daily chart

    The last bearish impulse has seen a significant correction in mid-week trade and there could be more to come if the bulls can stay the course with the 0.6570s eyed. The antipodean currency might start to find support from better-than-expected data of late such as the recent Retail Sales, which showed Australian shoppers were proving resilient to red-hot inflation and rising interest rates. In recent trade, the monthly inflation data has shown a +6.8% Yoy in August and +7.0% YoY for July. However, traders are awaiting the quarterly data that will arrive in late October. 

  • 02:23

    USD/CNY fix:  7.1102 vs. the previous fix of 7.1107

    In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 7.1102 vs. the previous fix of 7.1107 and the prior close of 7.2020. The estimate was at 7.1066.

    The yuan had weakened to a record low against the US dollar following another weaker-than-expected fix the prior day. 

    About the fix

    China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland.

    The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled.

    Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

  • 02:13

    GBP/USD sellers attack 1.0800 with eyes on BOE speakers, US GDP

    • GBP/USD pares BOE-led gains, the biggest in 3.5 months.
    • Jump in UK vehicle production, fresh run-up in yields challenge BOE’s capacity to restore market confidence.
    • Fears over the European energy crisis, hawkish Fedspeak add strength to the pullback moves.
    • Multiple central bank speakers are up for speeches, final readings of US GDP could also help sellers.

    GBP/USD takes offers to refresh the intraday low around 1.0800, snapping a two-day rebound from the record low. In doing so, the cable pair consolidates the biggest daily gains since mid-June during Thursday’s Asian session.

    Recovery in the US Treasury bond yields joins the market’s discomfort in the Bank of England’s (BOE) confidence to revive the British Pound (GBP) strength to weigh on the GBP/USD prices of late. On the same line could be the prevailing energy crisis in Europe and current pessimism in China.

    Recently, the UK’s car production rose for the fourth straight month in August as per the data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), shared via Reuters. That said, the details suggest that almost seven in 10 SMMT members have expressed fears about future business operations.

    Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is another central bank, in addition to the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the BOE, to defend the domestic currency, namely the yuan. It’s worth noting that the PBOC has recently intervened multiple times in the market and is likely to do so today as well as to defend the yuan amid fears of economic slowdown, led by the covid-led lockdowns.

    It should be noted that the British government’s rejection to fire the UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and keep his recently criticized fiscal plan in place also challenge the GBP/USD traders.

    On Wednesday, the Bank of England (BOE) announced a bond-buying program to defend the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday. The details suggest that the BOE will buy bonds with a maturity of over 20 years and up to 5 billion sterling worth per auction initially. That said, the BOE will start buying on September 28, which in turn suggests they postponed the pre-established mechanism of selling the bonds until October 31. BOE later confirmed that it could buy just £1.025 billion in the emergency QE operation, well below the planned £5 billion. 

    On the other hand, the US international trade deficit narrowed by $2.9 billion to $87.3 billion in August from $90.2 billion in July. Details suggest that the Exports dropped for the first time since January while Imports marked the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Further, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that the baseline scenario right now includes a 75 basis points (bps) rate hike in November and a 50 bps increase in December, as reported by Reuters. Additionally, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans also emphasized the need to address inflation and tried to renew the US dollar buying but could not due to the softer yields.

    Looking forward, multiple BOE speakers are on the line and so do the final readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to confirm -0.6% annualized figure. Considering the same, the GBP/USD may witness further downside if the US data prints upbeat figures and the BOE policymakers hesitate in convincing markets.

    Technical analysis

    GBP/USD remains bearish unless providing a clear upside break of 1.0730-35 resistance confluence, including the 10-DMA and a 12-day-old descending trend line.

     

  • 01:59

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD corrects below $1,660, upside looks likely ahead of US GDP data

    • Gold prices have shifted into a corrective phase after failing to sustain above $1,660.00.
    • Declining 10-year yields from a high of 4% have strengthened the risk-on impulse.
    • An expectation of a slowdown in the current pace of hiking rates by the Fed has weakened the DXY.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) is displaying a time correction move in Asia after a juggernaut rally from $1,620.00. The precious metal is declining gradually after failing to sustain above $1,660.00, however, the upside remains favored in a cheerful market mood. A decline in US Treasury yields brought a bumper rally in the risk-sensitive assets. The 10-year benchmark US Treasury yields fell sharply from 4% to around 3.7%.

    The US dollar index (DXY) has witnessed a pullback move to near 113.00. However, the pullback move seems less confident and will conclude sooner. No doubt, the hawkish commentaries from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers should delight the DXY. But those commentaries are also highlighting the fact that the pace of hiking interest rates by the Fed will slow down in a short time.  Fed’s current interest rates stand at 3-3.25% and bigger hikes are expected in the remaining 2022. This will leave a small room for deviation from the optimal rate of 4.6%.

    Going forward, investors’ focus will remain on the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which will display the condition of the growth rate in economic activities. As per the consensus, the growth rate in the US economy has declined by 0.6% in the second quarter on an annualized basis. A weaker-than-expected release will strengthen the gold prices further.

    Gold technical analysis

    Gold prices are declining towards the horizontal support placed from Monday’s high at $1,649.83 on an hourly scale. The precious metal is declining gradually, therefore, it is expected to capitalize on the above-mentioned horizontal support.

    The yellow metal is holding above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,641.58, which indicates that the short-term uptrend is intact. While it has slipped below the 200-EMA at $1,655.00 but is expected to recapture it sooner.

    Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates more upside ahead. Also, the momentum oscillator may find support at 60.00.

    Gold hourly chart

     

     

  • 01:57

    World Bank President Malpass: Increased likelihood of a recession in Europe

    World Bank President David Malpass says it may take years for global energy production to diversify away from Russia, prolonging the risk of stagflation.   

    Key notes

    Says pressing danger for the developing world is that a sharp slowdown in global growth deepens into a global recession.
        
    Says increased likelihood of a recession in Europe.
        
    Says crisis facing development is intensifying, and more spending on education and health preparedness is urgently needed.
        
    Says debt relief from bilateral and commercial creditors will also play a key role.
        
    Says weathering 'this perfect storm' and undoing reversals in development requires new macro- and microeconomic approaches.

    Meanwhile, global markets took a breather from the ferocious selling that has gripped them since the UK government announced its drastic fiscal plans and following the Federal Reserve that has embarked on its most aggressive path of interest-rate hikes since the 1980s. The US dollar caved and the euro rallied from 20-year lows. 

  • 01:35

    EUR/USD Price Analysis: Fades recovery below 0.9800 resistance confluence

    • EUR/USD consolidates the biggest daily gains in six months, retreats after crossing the 0.9600 previous key hurdle.
    • Convergence of 50-SMA, support-turned-resistance from late August probes buyers.
    • Firmer RSI, bullish MACD signals join clear upside break of 0.9600 to test sellers.
    • 21-SMA, weekly support line adds to the downside filters.

    EUR/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low around 0.9700 while paring the previous day’s bounce off a 20-year low during Thursday’s Asian session.

    In doing so, the major currency pair also trims the biggest daily jump since March while reversing the breakout of the 0.9600 hurdle comprising the 21-SMA and a one-week-old descending trend line.

    It should, however, be noted that the bullish MACD signals and the firmer RSI (14) keep the buyers hopeful. That said, the 21-SMA, currently around 0.9640 offers immediate support ahead of the resistance-turned-support line near the 0.9600 threshold.

    Even if the EUR/USD prices drop below the 0.9600 support, a downward sloping trend line from Monday, around 0.9530 by the press time, could challenge the pair’s further declines.

    On the flip side, the latest swing high near 0.9750 holds the key to EUR/USD buyers’ welcome.

    Following that, a convergence of the downward sloping trend line from August 23 and the 50-SMA, around 0.9800 at the latest, could challenge the pair bulls.

    In a case where the quote rises past 0.9800, the odds of witnessing the run-up towards the parity can’t be ruled out.

    EUR/USD: Four-hour chart

    Trend: Further recovery expected

     

  • 01:35

    New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook came in at -1.8%, above expectations (-6.3%) in September

  • 01:34

    New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence came in at -36.7, above forecasts (-52.1) in September

  • 01:30

    USD/JPY bulls scramble for low hanging fruit, but bears are lurking

    • USD/JPY bulls move in, but there could be more to come from the bears.
    • USD/JPY bears need to commit below 144.50 and take out 143.80.

    USD/JPY fell to 143.90 by late NY trade as US yields tumbled overnight following the Bank of England's surprise move by buying bonds. Global bond yields fell in response while equities rallied and the US dollar tanked as bulls capitulated into month-end sessions. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is retesting the 144.40s, moving up from the 144.04 lows 

    The US dollar index (DXY) is up 0.36% on the day but had reversed from a 20-year high in its first daily decline since 19 September. Bond yields fell sharply overnight after the BoE’s announcements that sent the yield on the 10-year gilt down nearly 50bp to 4.00%, while the US 10-year treasury dropped  21.4bp to 3.731%. In turn, the S&P 500 lifted 2.0%, following a bid in European equities.

    The central bank said it will carry out temporary purchases of long-dated UK government bonds from 28 September to restore orderly market conditions. “The purchases will be carried out on whatever scale is necessary to effect this outcome,” BoE said in its statement. The Old Lady's intervention appeared to calm the market when the yield on the 30-year benchmark gilt dropped by more than 50 basis points at one point despite the BoE only buying GBP1b concentrating on the July 2051 bond in the main.

    Following the aggressive fall in the value of USD/JPY, the currency pair could be ripening for a deeper correction of the steep rise from a week ago from down at 140.35 However, insofar as the divergence between Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy continues to signal upside potential for USD/JPY.

    ''The MoF, however, will be aware of the current vulnerability of the JPY and probably hopes to create enough fear of further intervention to keep some speculators side-lined.  That said, we continue to target USD/JPY147.00 on a 3-month view,'' analysts at Rabobank argued. 

    USD/JPY technical analysis

    The price took out the first level of support in the NY open and there are now prospects of a continuation to the downside should 144.50s hold as resistance and 143.90 breaks followed by 143.80. 

  • 01:30

    Stocks. Daily history for Wednesday, September 28, 2022

    Index Change, points Closed Change, %
    NIKKEI 225 -397.89 26173.98 -1.5
    Hang Seng -609.43 17250.88 -3.41
    KOSPI -54.57 2169.29 -2.45
    ASX 200 -34.2 6462 -0.53
    FTSE 100 20.79 7005.39 0.3
    DAX 43.6 12183.28 0.36
    CAC 40 11.19 5765.01 0.19
    Dow Jones 548.75 29683.74 1.88
    S&P 500 71.75 3719.04 1.97
    NASDAQ Composite 222.14 11051.64 2.05
  • 01:20

    US Dollar Index sees a downside below 112.50 as risk-on soars, US GDP in focus

    • The DXY will display sheer weakness after surrendering the crucial support of 112.50.
    • A significant drop in 10-year US Treasury yields improved investors’ risk appetite.
    • In today’s session, the US GDP will be of utmost importance.

    The US dollar index (DXY) is displaying a pullback move in the Tokyo session after dropping to near 112.57. Investors dumped the DXY on Wednesday after the market sentiment turned positive. Investors shrugged off the uncertainty of accelerating interest rates admitting that taming inflationary pressure is necessary. The DXY is expected to display more weakness as the pullback move will soon find sellers and the resumption of a downside journey will drag the asset to near 112.00.

    10-year US Treasury yields plunge

    After hitting a high of 4% for the first time since 2010, 10-year benchmark US Treasury yields have fallen dramatically as investors are expecting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will slow down the pace of hiking interest rates sooner. A significant drop in yields has improved investors’ risk appetite.

    Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic started to cross wires on Wednesday stating that the baseline scenario right now includes a 75 basis points (bps) rate hike in November followed by a 50 bps increase in December, as reported by Reuters. Should that materialize, the pace of hiking interest rates will slow down vigorously as the deviation between the desired terminal rate at 4.6% and Fed policymaker projections will trim significantly.

    Spotlight shifts to US GDP

    On Thursday, the investing community will keep its eye on the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. As per the consensus, the annualized US economic activities have displayed a de-growth consecutively by 0.6% for the second quarter. A lower-than-projected GDP data will weaken the DXY further.

     

  • 01:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Wednesday, September 28, 2022

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.65187 1.25
    EURJPY 140.265 0.96
    EURUSD 0.97334 1.41
    GBPJPY 156.827 0.91
    GBPUSD 1.08836 1.36
    NZDUSD 0.57188 1.42
    USDCAD 1.36058 -0.81
    USDCHF 0.97528 -1.63
    USDJPY 144.107 -0.45
  • 01:08

    AUD/USD eases from 12-day-old resistance to 0.6500 ahead of Australia inflation, US GDP

    • AUD/USD pares the biggest daily gains in three weeks, fades bounce off yearly low.
    • Market sentiment sours again amid looming energy crisis in Europe, concerns over China’s economic health.
    • Hawkish Fedspeak, rebound in yields add strength to the risk-off mood.
    • Australia’s first event monthly inflation data for July and August will be important considering RBA’s cautious mood.

    AUD/USD consolidates the previous day’s rebound from the two-year low around 0.6500 during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair pares the biggest daily jump in three weeks amid the cautious mood ahead of the key data from Australia and the US.

    The risk-barometer pair rallied during the late Wednesday, after refreshing the yearly low, as the US dollar tracked a heavy slump in the Treasury yields to retreat from the two-decade top.

    That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed from 114.78 to 113.00 after the Bank of England (BOE) announced surprise bond buying to restore the market’s confidence following the disappointment from the UK’s fiscal plan.

    That said, the Bank of England (BOE) announced a bond-buying program to defend the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday. The details suggest that the BOE will buy bonds with a maturity of over 20 years and up to 5 billion sterling worth per auction initially.

    On the other hand, the US international trade deficit narrowed by $2.9 billion to $87.3 billion in August from $90.2 billion in July. Details suggest that the Exports dropped for the first time since January while Imports marked the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Further, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that the baseline scenario right now includes a 75 basis points (bps) rate hike in November and a 50 bps increase in December, as reported by Reuters. Additionally, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans also emphasized the need to address inflation and tried to renew the US dollar buying but could not due to the softer yields.

    Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields slumped the most in six months and allowed equities to consolidate recent losses, which in turn dragged the US Dollar Index (DXY) from the multi-year high. It’s worth noting that the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses and fades bounce off 21-month low of late.

    While the risk-on mood favored the AUD/USD buyers the previous day, the prevailing energy crisis in Europe, doubts over the BOE’s capacity to regain traders’ confidence and current pessimism in China weigh on the pair.

    Moving on, Australia’s first ever monthly inflation data for July and August will be crucial for the AUD/USD pair considering the latest cautious statements from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Should the outcome prints softer details, the latest risk-aversion could join the firmer US dollar to recall the bears and attack the recently flashed yearly low.

    Following that, the final readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to confirm -0.6% annualized figure, will be crucial for the pair traders to watch.

    Technical analysis

    Although 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the AUD/USD pair’s April-August moves, around 0.6355 triggered the pair’s bounce, a clear upside break of the two-week-old resistance line, near 0.6530 at the latest, becomes necessary to defend the recovery.

     

  • 00:56

    Japan Foreign Bond Investment: ¥-1206.1B (September 23) vs previous ¥-1102.5B

  • 00:56

    Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks increased to ¥-310.6B in September 23 from previous ¥-1178.9B

  • 00:50

    Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks fell from previous ¥-609.7B to ¥-1178.9B in September 16

  • 00:50

    Japan Foreign Bond Investment down to ¥-1102.5B in September 16 from previous ¥-140.7B

  • 00:46

    ECB hawkishness may be insufficient to support EUR in a stagflationary environment – Morgan Stanley

    Late on Wednesday, Morgan Stanley (MS) conveyed its bearish bias on the EUR/USD pair, targeting the 0.9300 level. The US bank highlights stagflation and geopolitical concerns as the key catalysts favoring their view.

    Key quotes

    Market implied terminal rates for the ECB may be elevated (3%) compared to a more plausible outcome like 2%.

    The upcoming inflation print will be an important market event as investors seek to gauge the path for Eurozone inflation.

    EUR/USD fades bounce off yearly low

    The bank report joins hands with the market’s latest cautious move to trim the EUR/USD pair’s biggest daily gains in six months.

    Also read: EUR/USD struggles to extend rebound beyond 0.9700, German Inflation, US GDP eyed

  • 00:37

    NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pullback needs validation from 0.5700

    • NZD/USD fades recovery moves from a two-year low.
    • Convergence of previous resistance line, 100-HMA challenges sellers.
    • RSI retreat favor pullback in prices but bullish MACD, 0.5700 breakout keeps buyers hopeful.

    NZD/USD retreats to 0.5718 while snapping a two-day uptrend during Thursday’s quiet Asian session. In doing so, the Kiwi pair reverses the previous day’s bounce off the yearly bottom as the RSI (14) eases from the overbought region.

    Even so, the quote keeps Wednesday’s upside break of the 0.5700 resistance confluence comprising the 100-HMA and a downward sloping trend line from September 13, now acting as immediate support.

    Also adding strength to the 0.5700 support level is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of September 13-28 moves. It should be noted that the bullish MACD signals also keep the NZD/USD buyers hopeful.

    That said, the 50-HMA acts as the last defense of the pair buyers around 0.5660, a break of which won’t hesitate to recall the bears targeting the fresh yearly low, currently near 0.5565.

    Meanwhile, recovery moves need to cross the latest swing high surrounding 0.5740 to recall the NZD/USD buyers. Following that, the September 22 swing low near 0.5800 will be in focus.

    However, the traders can doubt the recovery unless the pair remains below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.5935.

    NZD/USD: Hourly chart

    Trend: Further upside expected

     

  • 00:37

    EUR/JPY stabilizes above 140.00 as BOJ’s intervention hangover fades, Japan’s job data eyed

    • EUR/JPY is comfortably established above 140.00 after hawkish guidance by ECB Lagarde.
    • German energy market regulators are preparing stockpiles ahead of the winter season.
    • Japan’s labor market data is expected to remain upbeat ahead.

    The EUR/JPY pair has established above the psychological resistance of 140.00 as the risk-on market profile favored risk-sensitive currencies. The asset has turned sideways and is awaiting more market participants for making bullish bets. On Wednesday, the shared currency bulls rebound firmly after dropping to near 138.00. The cross delivered an upside break of the four-day long consolidation formed in a 137.38-139.53 range.

    It seems that investors have shrugged-off uncertainty over the energy stockpiles ahead of the winter season, which soars the energy demand to run electrical appliances. Earlier, the Eurozone bulls were facing tremendous pressure after reporting a deliberate attack on the infrastructure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.  German administration is preparing sufficient energy stockpiles ahead of the winter season and a decline in the same will deepen the energy crisis further.

    Also, the speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde strengthened the shared continent bulls. ECB Lagarde sees rate hikes by 125 basis points (bps) in upcoming several meetings.

    Going forward, investors will focus on the Eurozone Consumer Confidence data. As per the preliminary estimates, the sentiment data will remain steady at -28.8. It is worth noting that the economic data is getting more vulnerable over the past year.

    On the Tokyo front, investors have shrugged off the impact of the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s intervention in the currency markets to support the depreciating yen. The market participants believe that the impact of intervention remains short-lived, therefore, only restrictive measures could be a tailwind for the Japanese yen.

    This week, the Japanese employment data will hog the limelight. The Unemployment Rate is expected to decline to 2.5% vs. the prior release of 2.6%. While the Jobs/Applicants Ratio will improve to 1.30 against the 1.29 reported earlier.  

     

     

  • 00:18

    EUR/GBP pares BOE-led moves around 0.8950, German inflation, energy crisis in the spotlight

    • EUR/GBP picks up bids to reverse the post BOE pullback.
    • Hawkish ECB jostled with the BOE’s bond-buying plan but failed to recall the bears.
    • Looming economic fears for the UK join hawkish ECBspeak to keep buyers hopeful.
    • German inflation may allow traders to witness further upside with firmer HICP numbers.

    EUR/GBP prints mild gains around 0.8950 during Thursday’s Asian session, after a volatile day that ended on a positive note.

    The cross-currency pair’s latest gains could be linked to the regional currency’s comparative strength considering the hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB). However, softer yields and hopes of the UK’s more efforts to restrict trader confidence could challenge the pair bears.

    That said, the Bank of England (BOE) announced a bond-buying program to defend the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday. The details suggest that the BOE will buy bonds with a maturity of over 20 years and up to 5 billion sterling worth per auction initially. On the other hand, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated on Wednesday that they will continue to raise rates in the next several meetings, as reported by Reuters. There were several other ECB Governing Council members namely Olli Rehn, Peter Kazimir, and Robert Holzmann who openly favored a 0.75% rate hike in the next meeting.

    Elsewhere, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields slumped the most in six months and allowed equities to consolidate recent losses, which in turn propelled the EUR and drowned the US dollar.

    Looking forward, preliminary readings of Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for September, expected 10% YoY versus 8.8% prior, will be important to watch for fresh impulse. Also important will be the ECBSpeak and the comments from various BOE policymakers. Above all, risk catalysts are crucial to determine short-term EUR/GBP moves.

    Considering the less likely immediate end of the UK’s financial problems, the EUR/GBP prices are likely to remain firmer and can rise further if the Germany data offers a positive surprise.

    Technical analysis

    A three-day-old bullish triangle restricts immediate EUR/GBP moves between 0.9030 and 0.8850.

     

  • 00:07

    USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bulls are moving in at 1.36 round number, eyes on NY open range's low

    • USD/CAD bears have moved in but there could be prospects of a bullish correction. 
    • A retest of the NY open's range could be in order for the day ahead.

    The chart below chart illustrates the key levels that include the opening hour's range of the New York session that could see the price drawn to in the coming sessions for a retest where the lows of the range meet a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 1.3660.

    USD/CAD H1 chart

    On the way there, trapping breakout shorts, the price will need to break back above Tuesday's low of 1.3640. If this area were to hold, then there will be prospects of a deeper move through last week's high again of 1.3612 and Wednesday's low of 1.3602 to retest this week's low of 1.3559 that could be broken should month-end flows accelerate the squeeze on long dollar positions. 

    USD/CAD weekly chart

    If the price continues to deteriorate, as per the above thesis, then a 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the weekly bullish impulse aligns with around 1.35 the figure. This could be a feasible target should this week's low, so far, give out for a fresh low for the current week. Following the shake-out, there could be prospects of a surge higher again if markets commit to the US dollar again as fundamentals once again take over. 

  • 00:04

    GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Pares some of its weekly losses, fluctuates around 156.60

    • GBP/JPY recovered some ground on Wednesday and trimmed most of its weekly losses.
    • However, if the GBP/JPY fails to reclaim 157.00, that would pave the way for sellers, and the pair could drop towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 154.67.
    • A break above 157.00 might open the door for a rally towards the 61.8% Fibonacci at 158.40.

    On Wednesday, the GBP/JPY finished the day with solid gains of 1%, as the Bank of England intervention bolstered UK bonds and alleviated the markets. However, as the Asian Pacific session takes over, the GBP/JPY is trading at 156.59, down 0.21%.

    GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    The GBP/JPY daily chart portrays the pair as downward biases, as mentioned yesterday, “once it cleared the 200-EMA.” GBP/JPY’s Wednesday price action registered a daily high at 157.09, above the 50% Fibonacci retracement, drawn from the high/low of September 22 and 26, respectively, paving the way for a move towards the 61.8% retracement at 158.40. If the GBP/JPY breaks 158.00, then a move to the latter is on the cards, followed by the figure at 160.00, ahead of the 200-day EMA at 160-33

    Otherwise, the GBP/JPY might be headed downwards, aligned with its current bias. Therefore, the GBP/JPY’s first support will be the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 156.53. Once cleared, the next support would be the 38.2% Fibonacci at 154.67, followed by the September 27 daily low at 154.07. A breach of the latter might send the GBP/JPY towards the January 24 daily low of 152.90.

    GBP/JPY Key Technical Levels

     

  • 00:01

    WTI Price Analysis: Eases from previous support near $82.00 inside falling wedge

    • WTI snaps two-day uptrend, pares daily gains after rising the most since May.
    • Bullish chart pattern, upside oscillators keep buyers hopeful but 100-SMA adds to the upside filters.
    • Multiple supports to challenge bears above $75.00 level.

    WTI crude oil prices fade the previous day’s upside momentum, the biggest in four months, as bulls take a breather at around $82.00 during Thursday’s Asian session. That said, the black gold retreats to $81.30 by the press time.

    In doing so, the quote eased from the previous support line from September 07 while staying inside the monthly falling wedge bullish chart pattern.

    Given the recently firmer RSI and the bullish MACD signals, the commodity prices are likely to extend the latest hurdle surrounding $82.00.

    However, the quote’s further upside will hinge on the capacity to confirm the wedge formation with a clear break of $82.80, as well as cross the 100-SMA hurdle surrounding $83.55.

    On the contrary, pullback moves may revisit the $80.00 threshold ahead of weekly horizontal support near $78.00.

    In a case where the quote drops below $78.00 support, the latest multi-month low near $76.00 and the lower line of the stated wedge, around $75.20, could challenge the further downside of WTI crude oil.

    WTI: Four-hour chart

    Trend: Further upside expected

     

29 setembro 2022
O foco de mercado
Cotações
Símbolo Bid Ask Horário
AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
XAGEUR
XAGUSD
XAUUSD

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