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26 março 2020 15:06

Mark Goichmann

The Coronavirus Recession Might Be Much Worse Than the Global Financial Crisis of 2008

The World Trade Organisation's (WTO) Director-General Roberto Azevedo said that recent projections show the economic downturn and job losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic would be worse than the 2008 recession. "This pandemic will inevitably have an enormous impact on the economy..." he said in a video message filmed from his home and posted on the WTO website. The analogy of what is going on now and back in 2008 are forcing oneself in. With the completely different origins and circumstances of the two financial disasters, the economic symptoms are quite comparable.

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20 março 2020 13:31

Mark Goichmann

Europe to Take Advantage on Low Crude Prices While the US Shale Producers Likely to Suffer

Shale oil producers in the United States are mounting pressure on the US authorities as they are crunched by 17-year record low crude prices. Occidental Petroleum shares plummeted by 65%, Continental Resources - by 60%, EOG Resources lost almost a halt of their market capitalisation since the beginning of March alone. It seems rather surprising that the US Energy Information Administration forecasted an increase in domestic shale oil production by 18,000 bpd or 0.2% on top of the current production level. Shale producers attract credit lines to be able to develop production.

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19 março 2020 13:23

Mark Goichmann

Oil Well Strikes Down

HS Markit forecasts the biggest crude surplus ever in the first half of 2020 amid a mind-blowing drop in demand and a price war going on in the oil market between Saudi Arabia and Russia. According to the forecast, the oil excess could augment between 800 million and 1.3 billion bpd. Emotional price wars in the oil market and plummeting demand may lead to irrational behaviour by the markets and further decline in prices. It may be considered that the market is pricing in a possible future drop in demand of four to ten % of the total demand, according to the HS Markit.

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6 março 2020 12:49

Mark Goichmann

The Country of a Rising Yen

Fears over the coronavirus are inflating prices for safe haven assets like the Japanese Yen. The VIX fear index rose from 15 to almost 47 for the last two weeks. The Yen is one of the beneficiaries. The Japanese currency strengthened from 112.2 to 105 against the Greenback or to the almost unprecedented amount of 6.4%, which has not been seen since 2016. The market has raised a fried egg flag. Investors are inspired by the weakening US Dollar due to the interest rates cut in the United States from 1.75% to 1.25% and a further possible cut on March 18.

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4 março 2020 10:57

Mark Goichmann

Gold is Still Playing the Role of the Safe Haven Asset

Gold price movements might look paradoxically lately if the bullion is considered as a traditional safe heaven asset. The "first wave" of the coronavirus in mainland China in early February triggered the surge in gold prices to almost $1700 toz by February 24. It could be assumed that the recent slump on stock markets could drive the bullion prices even higher to the highs which were reached in 2012 of $1790 toz. But that eventually did not happen. Gold prices "suddenly" fell from $1692 to $1565 toz last week in line with deteriorating oil prices and the S&P 500 index.

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28 fevereiro 2020 14:39

Mark Goichmann

The Uncertainty Over Oil Supplies Has Put Black Gold in Turmoil

The enormous fear over the coronavirus outbreak sent oil from $60 to below $50 per barrel of Brent on Friday. Even better than expected figures for oil inventories rise in the US (0.45 barrels versus two million barrels expected) had not stopped the fall in oil prices. Investors fear the uncertainty around the virus and, as a result, oil supplies may continue to lead to further deterioration of the market. The World Health Organisation (WHO) admitted that 60% of the world's population could be contaminated with COVID-19.

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25 fevereiro 2020 14:43

Mark Goichmann

Don’t Panic. The Recent Market Drop Reflects a Sentiment and Not the Real Coronavirus Damage to the World Economy

The recent drop in the world's stock indexes by four to five % is associated with the "second wave" of the spreading of the coronavirus. The "lesions" caused by the spread of the virus went far beyond the epicentre - mainland China - and are affecting the heavily populated and industrial regions of Europe, especially Italy, and regions in Korea and Japan are also being affected. The fears that the effects of the virus on the world economy, world's production and trade are triggering investment risks. Such risks are in place and they are huge.

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20 fevereiro 2020 13:14

Mark Goichmann

More Than Precious Gold

Gold prices on Thursday went sky high after breaking through the nine-year resistance level of $1612 toz. The last time gold futures temporarily jumped to this level was this January amid the US-Iran military tensions. At that time gold jumped due to the extreme risk of the large-scale military outbreak. Now it is different: markets are more or less quiet and have turned to a positive outlook, despite the coronavirus uncertainties. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) that gauges market risk and investors' sentiment is around 15, which is a rather moderate level.

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11 fevereiro 2020 15:18

Mark Goichmann

The Pound May Rebound on Positive Economic Perspectives

The British Pound fell under pressure since December Parliament elections in the United Kingdom from 1.34 to 1.29 in February 2020. The Pound lost 2.5% last week only as investors fear inappeasable British Prime Minister Boris Johnson with his tough stance with the EU after Brexit could not make a trade deal with EU by the end of 2020. However, the positive signs of economic recovery in the UK came with the GDP statistics released on Tuesday. British GDP rose 1.1% year-on-year in 4Q2019 that beats the forecasted 0.8% but lower than the previous figures of 1.2%.

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31 janeiro 2020 12:36

Mark Goichmann

The Loonie, in a Run for Ransom

The Canadian Dollar lost more than 2% in January, legging it to its strong resistance border of 1.3230 to1.3270. There are several reasons that could contribute to such a harsh slide. The Canadian economy is struggling. The annualised GDP in the fourth-quarter of 2019 - which is yet to be released - is expected to replicate the year's third-quarter, which was at 0.3%, much less than 0.9%, where the GDP stood in the second-quarter of 2019. The unemployment rate in December 2019 remained high at 5.6%, slightly below the 5.

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Os CFD são instrumentos complexos e apresentam um elevado risco de perda rápida dinheiro devido ao efeito de alavancagem. 69% dos investidores de retalho perdem capital quando negoceiam com este provedor. Deve considerar se compreende como funcionam os CFD e se pode correr o elevado risco de perda do seu dinheiro.

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