Visão Geral do Mercado

1 junho 2023 13:32

Lysakov Sergey

The ongoing approval of the $31.4 trillion U.S. debt ceiling rise by the U.S. Congress is the major saga of the week. The Senate is expected to greenlight all necessary bills by the end of the week. Federal Spending would be cut by $1.5 trillion during the next decade, but even more important is that the technical default threat will recede. Investors are welcoming the fact, but without any rampant enthusiasm as this was expected. The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) is hovering around 104 points, but has an upside potential as the Ministry of finance is expected to resume borrowings soon.

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30 maio 2023 17:14

Constantinos Anastasiou

Erdogan’s President Victory Sends Lira into the Abyss

The Turkish Lira plummeted after Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the Presidential elections last Sunday. The USDTRY added another 3% to 20.40 during May 29-30. It has easily crashed the psychological resistance of 20 Liras per U.S. Dollar, gaining maximum momentum over the last year. Trading of European currencies in London, which opened on Tuesday after a long weekend, only contributed to the free fall of the Lira. This decline is primary associated with Erdogan himself, as he is well known for his passion to direct the Turkish central bank in a very specific notorious way.

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26 maio 2023 16:26

Constantinos Anastasiou

SP500: Riding the Debt Ceiling Rollercoaster - Will the Momentum Hold?

The SP500 recently achieved a new higher high, reaching 4215.94 on May 19, indicating a bullish momentum ahead of the approaching Debt Ceiling Deadline on June 1. However, a significant sell-off ensued from that level as the market moved away from the premium territory it had been trading in. As a result, there is a possibility that the price could target the sell side liquidity below the low of the second week of May, specifically the 4097.54 level formed on May 12.

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26 maio 2023 07:37

Lysakov Sergey

U.S. GDP Is Paving a Way for More Rate Hikes

June 1, an indicated deadline by the U.S. Minister of Finance, Janet Yellen, for resolving debt-ceiling issues, in nearing rapidly. This is also International Children’s Day established in 1949 by Russia and celebrated in post-Communist countries, in Eastern European Countries and some Asian nations like China and Vietnam. Thus, the United States may simply ignore celebrations and share its childish debt troubles with other nations all over the world. Central banks across the globe hold around 50% of its reserves in U.S. debt that totals $31.4 trillion, or 129% of America’s GDP.

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23 maio 2023 17:33

Lysakov Sergey

European Business is Seen to be Dragging Down Markets

May Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for the Eurozone and the United Kingdom were unilaterally disappointing. The leading economic indicators continue to slide towards a possible contraction of the European economy, as composite PMI in the Eurozone was down to 53.5 points from 54.1 points, while the same indication for the U.K. fell to 53.9 points from 54.9 points. Both economies’ manufacturing PMIs continue to slid further down below the 50-point threshold. Any reading below 50 points indicates a contraction of the economy.

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18 maio 2023 14:27

Lysakov Sergey

Euro Under Dual Pressure

Until recently investors had almost no doubt that the Federal Reserve (Fed) was close to the quantitative easing cycle, while expecting the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise its interest rates to lower roaring inflation in the Eurozone. That supported the Euro and put some pressure on the U.S. Dollar. The situation is changing, however. Eurozone April inflation has slowed down to 0.6% month-on-month vs 0.7% estimate and 0.9% MoM in March. Inflation rose to 7.0% YoY meeting consensus of 6.9% in March.

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16 maio 2023 17:28

Lysakov Sergey

Gold Exposes a Potential Upside

The current weak U.S. Dollar and investors’ desire for shelter during turbulent times are supporting gold prices. The U.S. Dollar is in a downside trend as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to end its interest rate hike cycle. More than 80% of investors predict that the Fed will leave its interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, during its June meeting, while 63% of investors think the Fed will be forced to start lowering rates in September 2023. Macroeconomic and geopolitical risks largely contribute to gold prices, as they are dramatically rising.

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11 maio 2023 17:00

Lysakov Sergey

Two Days of Inflation that Shook the World

April inflation data in the United States that was released on May 10 had a serious impact on the market. The sigh of relief was quite explainable as no evidence of extra money poured into the market by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March to save U.S. regional banks was spotted in inflation figures. Instead, April Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 4.9% beating consensus, and lower than the March figure. Declining WTI crude prices, that fell from $83.5 per barrel to $73.

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2 maio 2023 17:08

Lysakov Sergey

U.S. Weakening Economy Supports Markets

Markets are receiving mix signals ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting that is starting today. The American economy has slowed down as GDP in the first quarter of 2023 rose by 1.1% only compared to 2.6% in the previous quarter. The Personal Consumer Expenditure Index (PCE) decline to 4.2% in March against 5.1% in February. These are major developments for the Fed as it may be less hawkish amid a slowing economy and inflation indications that have neared its 3.3% target in 2023. Investors are now betting that the monetary watchdog will cut interest rates from 5.

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25 abril 2023 17:32

Lysakov Sergey

Why Does the Dollar Continue to Reign?

Lately markets have been buzzing with constant speculations about the fundamentals of the U.S. Dollar as a reserve currency and about a possible crash of the Dollar-pegged system that is poised to be dismantled. For whatever reason, the question currently in the air is whether the Greenback has to lose its role as the world’s number one currency and step back from the international arena in favour of other currencies. The short answer is very simply no.

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