Market news

17 sierpnia 2022
  • 11:54

    EUR/USD could suffer additional losses in case 1.0150 is confirmed as resistance

    EUR/USD has failed to reclaim 1.0200 following the latest recovery attempt. The pair could test 1.0100 with key resistances staying intact, FXStreet’s Eren Sengezer reports.

    Additional losses are likely in the near term

    “EUR/USD faces strong resistance in the 1.0200/1.020 area, where the 100-period and the 200-period SMAs on the four-hour chart are located. Unless buyers reclaim that level, the bearish bias should stay intact.”

    “On the downside, 1.0150 aligns as first support. If this level is confirmed as resistance, additional losses toward 1.0100 and 1.0050 could be witnessed.”

    “Above 1.0200, resistance are located at 1.0230 and 1.0300.”

     

  • 11:46

    USD/MXN: Banxico’s proactive rate hikes support the peso –Scotiabank

    The Mexican peso is currently holding a small gain versus the US dollar in year-to-date terms. Sharp rises in domestic interest rates have supported the MXN and economists at Scotiabank expect policymakers to tighten rates further, holding USD/MXN within recent ranges.

    Peso supported by tighter monetary policy

    “Banxico’s proactive rate hikes are arguably the major factor behind the peso’s strength, and we anticipate that for the near term, we will continue to see its rate hikes matching the pace set by the Federal Reserve, keeping the interest rate spread between the two countries near 600 bps.” 

    “There are some risks looming on the horizon, such as the USMCA arbitrage against Mexico by Canada and the US due to energy policy, inflation risks to what are so far resilient remittance flows, as well as continued weak foreign investment, but we don’t see these being a major headwind for MXN during this calendar year.”

     

  • 11:39

    GBP/USD surrenders modest intraday gains, steadies near 1.2100 ahead of FOMC minutes

    • GBP/USD struggles to capitalize on hotter-than-expected UK CPI-led modest intraday gains.
    • Hawkish Fed expectations continue to act as a tailwind for the USD and act as a headwind.
    • The downside seems cushioned as traders seem reluctant ahead of the key FOMC minutes.

    The GBP/USD pair retreats a few pips from the early European session high and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily trading range, just below the 1.2100 mark.

    The British pound did get a minor boost after the UK Office for National Statistics reported that the headline CPI accelerated to the highest level since 1982 and rose 10.1% YoY in July. The reading was well above the 9.4% recorded in June and 9.8% estimated, lifting bets for another rate hike by the Bank of England. The GBP/USD pair, however, struggles to capitalize on the modest intraday uptick and meets with some selling in the vicinity of the 1.2200 round figure.

    Growing recession fears might force the UK central bank to adopt a gradual approach to raising interest rates. This, along with the underlying bullish tone surrounding the US dollar, acts as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. The USD stands tall near the monthly peak touched the previous day and continues to draw support from expectations that the Fed would stick to its policy tightening path. Apart from this, the cautious market mood further underpins the safe-haven buck.

    That said, the USD bulls might refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the highly-anticipated FOMC minutes, due later during the US session. Investors would look for clues about the possibility of a 75 bps Fed rate hike move at the September policy meeting. This should influence the USD and provide a fresh directional impetus to the GBP/USD pair. In the meantime, the US Retail Sales figures might allow traders to grab short-term opportunities.

    Hence, it would be prudent to wait for follow-through selling before confirming that the previous day's bounce from the 1.2000 psychological mark or the monthly low has run out of steam. That said, bulls are likely to wait for sustained strength beyond the 1.2200 round-figure mark before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for the GBP/USD pair.

    Technical levels to watch

     

  • 11:17

    South Korea: BoK could lift the policy rate to 3.0% by year end – UOB

    Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann notes the BoK could hike rates by 25 bps at its next meetings in August, October and November.

    Key Quotes

    “On the assumption that inflation will peak in 2H22, we maintain our forecast for the BoK to revert to 25bps hike for the remaining meetings this year in Aug, Oct and Nov to bring the benchmark base rate to 3.00% by year-end.”

    “With an expected moderation in inflation rate next year, the BOK is likely to stay on hold thereafter, or even begin to trim interest rate should growth risks mount.”

  • 11:04

    NZD/USD retreats sharply from post-RBNZ high, drops to one-week low near 0.6300 mark

    • NZD/USD fails to capitalize on the post-RBNZ gains and turns lower for the third successive day.
    • Recession fears continue to act as a headwind for the risk-sensitive kiwi amid fresh USD buying.
    • Hawkish Fed expectations, elevated US bond yields underpin the buck ahead of FOMC minutes.

    The NZD/USD pair witnesses an intraday turnaround from the 0.6385 area, or the daily high touched after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision. Spot prices turn lower for the third successive day on Wednesday and drop to a one-week low, around the 0.6300 mark during the early European session.

    The RBNZ announced a fourth consecutive 50 bps rate hike on Wednesday and pointed to the need to bring forward the timing of further rate increases. The initial market reaction, however, fizzles out rather quickly amid the prevalent cautious mood, which continues to act as a headwind for the risk-sensitive kiwi.

    The market sentiment remains fragile amid worries about a global economic downturn, further fueled by the disappointing Chinese macro data released on Tuesday. Apart from this, the underlying bullish tone surrounding the US dollar prompts fresh selling around the NZD/USD pair and contributes to the intraday decline.

    The USD stands tall near the monthly peak touched the previous day amid firming expectations that the Fed would stick to its aggressive policy tightening path. The bets were lifted by hawkish remarks by several Fed officials, stressing that it is too soon to declare a victory on inflation despite the softer US CPI report.

    This, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and underpins the buck. Traders, however, seem reluctant and prefer to move on the sidelines ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, which would be looked upon for clues about the possibility of a larger 75 bps Fed rate hike move at the September meeting.

    In the meantime, the US monthly Retail Sales figures, due for release later during the early North American session, might influence the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, traders would take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities around the NZD/USD pair.

    Technical levels to watch

     

  • 11:02

    Eurozone GDP expands 0.6% QoQ in Q2 vs. 0.7% expected

    The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.6% QoQ in the second quarter of this year, missing 0.7% expected and down from the 0.7% first reading, the second estimate showed on Wednesday. 

    On an annualized basis, the bloc’s GDP rate rose by 3.9% in Q2 vs. the preliminary figure of 4.0% while falling short of 4.0% expectations.

    The Preliminary Employment Change in the old continent for Q2 arrived at  0.3% QoQ and 2.4% YoY.

    Market reaction

    EUR/USD was last seen trading at 1.0168, almost unchanged on the day. The pair failed to sustain gains once again, as risk-off flows dominate in the European session this Wednesday.

    About Eurozone Preliminary GDP

    The Gross Domestic Product released by Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered a broad measure of the Eurozone's economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

  • 11:00

    European Monetary Union Employment Change (YoY) below forecasts (2.5%) in 2Q: Actual (2.4%)

  • 11:00

    European Monetary Union Employment Change (QoQ) below expectations (0.4%) in 2Q: Actual (0.3%)

  • 11:00

    European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) came in at 3.9% below forecasts (4%) in 2Q

  • 11:00

    European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) below expectations (0.7%) in 2Q: Actual (0.6%)

  • 10:30

    Hong Kong SAR Unemployment rate below expectations (4.5%) in July: Actual (4.3%)

  • 10:30

    United Kingdom DCLG House Price Index (YoY) registered at 7.8%, below expectations (12.5%) in July

  • 10:24

    Indonesia: BI gets ready to start hiking rates – UOB

    The Bank Indonesia (BI) would likely hike its policy rate by 25 bps at its event next week, notes UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann.

    Key Quotes

    “BI is of the view that higher inflation is mainly driven by the supply-side disruptions and although it will reach beyond its upper target range of 2%-4% in 2022, core inflation is not under significant upward pressure.”

    “Nevertheless, we expect inflation expectation to continue building up, and look for BI to hike its benchmark interest rates as early as Aug. Our forecast is for two 25bps hikes in 3Q 2022 to 4.00%, followed by another two 25bps hikes in 4Q 2022 to 4.50%.”

  • 10:20

    EUR/USD resumes the decline near 1.0150, looks to US, EMU data

    • EUR/USD fades Tuesday’s small uptick and refocuses on the 1.150 area.
    • Another revision of the EMU Q2 GDP is due later in the region.
    • In the NA session, the FOMC Minutes and Retail Sales are in the limelight.

    The selling bias returns to the single currency and drags EUR/USD back to the 1.0150 zone on Wednesday.

    EUR/USD now looks to the domestic, US calendar

    EUR/USD keeps navigating the lower end of the recent range amidst some modest losses, although it has put some distance from weekly lows in the 1.0120 region recorded on Tuesday.

    The re-emergence of the demand for the US dollar put the risk complex once again under pressure on Wednesday amidst the broad-based recovery in yields in the global cash markets.

    Later in the session, another estimate of the GDP in the euro area during the April-June period is due, while Retail Sales and the release of the FOMC Minutes will be in the centre of the debate later in the NA session.

    What to look for around EUR

    EUR/USD now appears somewhat stabilized in the low-1.0100s against the backdrop of a firm recovery in the demand for the US dollar.

    Price action around the European currency, in the meantime, is expected to closely follow dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns, fragmentation worries and the Fed-ECB divergence.

    On the negatives for the single currency emerge the so far increasing speculation of a potential recession in the region, which looks propped up by dwindling sentiment gauges and the incipient slowdown in some fundamentals.

    Key events in the euro area this week: EMU GDP Growth Rate (Wednesday) – EMU Final Inflation Rate (Thursday).

    Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation of the ECB hiking cycle. Italian elections in late September. Fragmentation risks amidst the ECB’s normalization of its monetary conditions. Impact of the war in Ukraine on the region’s growth prospects and inflation.

    EUR/USD levels to watch

    So far, spot is losing 0.08% at 1.0162 and a break below 1.0096 (weekly low July 27) would target 1.0000 (psychological level) en route to 0.9952 (2022 low July 14). On the other hand, the next up barrier comes at 1.0368 (monthly high August 10) seconded by 1.0495 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.0615 (weekly high June 27).

     

  • 10:14

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles near one-week low, focus remains on FOMC minutes

    • Gold turns lower for the third successive day amid the emergence of fresh USD buying.
    • Hawkish Fed expectations, rising US bond yields continue to underpin the greenback.
    • Recession fears could limit losses for the XAU/USD ahead of the key FOMC minutes.

    Gold continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction and meets with a fresh supply near the $1,782 region on Wednesday. The XAU/USD drifts in negative territory for the third successive day and drops to the $1,772 area during the early European session, back closer to over a one-week low touched the previous day.

    The US dollar attracts some dip-buying and stands tall near the monthly peak, which turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the dollar-denominated gold. Despite last week's softer US CPI report, the recent hawkish remarks by Fed officials suggest that the US central bank would stick to its policy tightening path. This, along with a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields, underpins the USD and further contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.

    The downside, however, seems cushioned, at least for the time being, amid the prevalent cautious mood, which tends to benefit the safe-haven gold. The market sentiment remains fragile amid growing worries over a global economic downturn, which were further fueled by the disappointing Chinese data released on Tuesday. Investors also seem reluctant from placing aggressive bets and might prefer to move on the sidelines ahead of the FOMC minutes, due later during the US session this Wednesday.

    The markets are currently pricing in a greater chance of at least a 50 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Hence, the minutes would be looked upon for clues about the possibility for a larger 75 bps move. This would play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and determining the next leg of a directional move for gold. In the meantime, traders are likely to take cues from the US Retail Sales figures for short-term opportunities during the early North American session.

    Technical levels to watch

     

  • 10:07

    Philippines: Further tightening likely by the BSP – UOB

    Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, suggests the BSP would continue hiking rates in the next periods.

    Key Quotes

    “The latest large off-cycle rate hike will not mark the end of the BSP’s monetary policy normalisation as yet. In fact, we see more interest rate rises ahead, depending on the incoming domestic inflation and GDP data as well as global and regional central banks’ rate decision in the near term.”

    “We now bring forward our BSP rate hike projections for 1H23 to this year, taking the RRP rate back to the pre-pandemic level of 4.00% by the end of 2022.”

  • 10:05

    Forex Today: Markets turn cautious as focus shifts to US data, FOMC Minutes

    Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, August 17:

    Following Tuesday's choppy action, the US Dollar Index regained its traction early Wednesday and climbed above 106.60 with investors turning cautious. The Gross Domestic Product data for the second quarter will be featured in the European economic docket. Later in the day, July Retail Sales data from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus before the FOMC published the minutes of its July meeting at 1800 GMT. Reflecting the souring market mood, US stock index futures are down between 0.2% and 0.4% in the early European session.

    FOMC July Minutes Preview: Can it influence September Fed rate hike expectations?

    During the Asian trading hours, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced that it hiked its policy rate by 50 basis points to 3% as expected. Speaking on the economic outlook, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said that although they were not forecasting a recession, they were expecting growth to be sub-par. With the initial reaction, NZD/USD climbed toward 0.6400 but ended up reversing its direction with the dollar gathering strength during the European trading hours. As of writing, the pair was down 0.4% on the day at 0.6318.

    The UK's Office for National Statistics reported on Wednesday that inflation in the UK, as measured by the Consumer Price (CPI), climbed to 10.1% in July from 9.4% in June. In the same period, the Core CPI edged higher to 6.2% from 5.8%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.9%. With the immediate reaction, GBP/USD spiked above 1.2140 before erasing its gains and returning below 1.2100.

    With the greenback keeping its footing mid-week, EUR/USD continues to fluctuate in a relatively tight range below 1.0200. 

    USD/JPY built on Tuesday gains and rose toward 135.00 on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up more than 2% on the day, fueling the pair's advance.

    After having recovered above $1,780 during the Asian trading hours, gold turned south and was last seen trading in negative territory slightly above $1,770.

    Bitcoin is struggling to stage a convincing rebound amid risk aversion and trades in negative territory below $24,000 after having posted losses in the previous three days. Following a recovery attempt, Ethereum lost its momentum and erased a large portion of its daily gains. As of writing, ETH/USD was clinging to small daily gains at $1,890.

  • 09:37

    AUD/USD drops to one-week low, further below 0.7000 mark amid fresh USD buying

    • AUD/USD meets with a fresh supply on Wednesday after a softer Australian Wage Price Index.
    • The cautious mood and weaker commodity prices further weigh on the resources-linked aussie.
    • The USD hovers near the monthly high and adds to the selling bias ahead of the FOMC minutes.

    The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight late rebound and meets with a fresh supply on Wednesday. The pair remains on the defensive through the early European session and is currently placed near a one-week low, just below the 0.7000 psychological mark.

    The Australian dollar weakened after data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that Wage Price Index fell short of market expectations and rose 0.7% during the second quarter. The softer data dampens prospects for a 50 bps rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia in September. This, along with weaker commodity prices, exerts some downward pressure on the resources-linked aussie.

    The US dollar, on the other hand, stands tall near the monthly peak and continues to draw support from hawkish Fed expectations. Despite last week's softer US CPI report, the recent comments by several Fed officials suggest that the US central bank would stick to its policy tightening path. Apart from this, a softer risk tone further underpins the safe-haven buck and weighs on the risk-sensitive aussie.

    The market sentiment remains fragile amid growing worries about a global economic downturn, fueled by the disappointing Chinese macro data on Tuesday. The fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of the depreciating move for the AUD/USD pair. That said, traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, due for release later during the US session.

    The markets are currently pricing in at least a 50 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Hence, the minutes would be looked for clues about the possibility for a 75 bps move. This would influence the USD and determine the next leg of a directional move for the AUD/USD pair. In the meantime, the US Retail Sales figures might provide some impetus later during the early North American session.

    Technical levels to watch

     

  • 09:30

    Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) down to 5.3% in 2Q from previous 6.7%

  • 09:30

    Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) increased to 2.6% in 2Q from previous 0.4%

  • 09:30

    Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume dipped from previous 7.3% to 5.2% in June

  • 09:10

    USD to remain relatively firm over the balance of the year – Scotiabank

    The US dollar withstood a second, successive negative GDP print in Q2, which is typically shorthand for a recession. Economists at Scotiabank think the USD bull cycle is looking very extended but USD bears will have to remain patient.

    Dollar poised to remain firm amid few alternatives

    “Despite the US economy falling into a ‘technical recession’, investors continue to feel that there is no viable alternative to the USD as the Fed pushes ahead with tighter monetary policy.”

    “We expect the USD to remain firm in the next few months but significant or sustained gains may be hampered by stretched valuation (the DXY is trading one standard deviation above its 10Y moving average) and stretched USD-bullish positioning among investors.” 

    “A lot of good news is already priced into the USD and the currency is starting to look overvalued.”

     

  • 09:04

    US Dollar Index regains traction and revisits 106.70 ahead of key data

    • The index resumes the upside around the 106.70 zone.
    • The US 2y-10y yield curve adds to Tuesday’s advance.
    • The FOMC Minutes, Retail Sales will take centre stage later.

    Following Tuesday’s inconclusive price action, the US Dollar Index (DXY) regains the smile and advances to the 106.70 region, or daily highs, on Wednesday.

    US Dollar Index now looks to the docket

    Bulls seem to have returned to the dollar on Wednesday. Indeed, the index picks up further pace and revisits the 106.70 zone, as the recent improvement in the risk complex seems to lack follow through.

    The move higher in the dollar appears propped up by the equally firm tone in US yields, particularly in the short term and the belly of the curve, which manage to extend Tuesday’s advance.

    Later in the US docket weekly MBA Mortgage Applications are due in the first turn seconded by Retail Sales, Business Inventories and the publication of the FOMC Minutes of the July 27 meeting.

    What to look for around USD

    The strong rebound in the dollar comes in response to some worsening conditions in the risk complex, which motivates DXY to now shift its attention to the 107.00 neighbourhood once again.

    The dollar, in the meantime, is poised to suffer some extra volatility amidst investors’ repricing of the next move by the Federal Reserve, namely a 50 bps or 75 bps hike in September.

    Looking at the macro scenario, the dollar appears propped up by the Fed’s divergence vs. most of its G10 peers (especially the ECB) in combination with bouts of geopolitical effervescence and occasional re-emergence of risk aversion.

    Key events in the US this week: MBA Mortgage Applications, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, FOMC Minutes (Wednesday) – Initial Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, CB Leading Index, Existing Home Sales (Thursday).

    Eminent issues on the back boiler: Hard/soft/softish? landing of the US economy. Escalating geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. Fed’s more aggressive rate path this year and 2023. US-China trade conflict.

    US Dollar Index relevant levels

    Now, the index is gaining 0.05% at 106.52 and a breakout of 107.42 (weekly high post-FOMC July 27) would expose 109.29 (2022 high July 15) and then 109.77 (monthly high September 2002). On the other hand, immediate support comes at 104.63 (monthly low August 10) seconded by 103.89 (100-day SMA) and finally 103.67 (weekly low June 27).

     

  • 09:04

    USD/JPY: Consolidation phase may still last some considerable time – Credit Suisse

    USD/JPY extends its consolidation phase following strength to just shy of the psychological 140.00 barrier. In the opinion of economists at Credit Suisse, the pair is expected to consolidate for a lengthier period of time.

    Break above 135.56/59 to suggest the risk may be turning higher again

    “We look for this corrective phase to extend further and potentially for a lengthy period of time.”

    “Support is seen at 132.52 initially, below which would warn of a fall back to 130.40, then the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 rally at 129.50.” 

    “We would not rule out a test of the ‘neckline’ to the multi-year base at 127.40, but our bias remains to look for an important floor in this 129.50/127.40 zone.”

    “Above 135.56/59 is needed to suggest the risk may already be turning higher again for a retest of 139.40/140.00.”

     

  • 09:00

    AUD/USD: Break below 0.6868 to clear the way towards the YTD low at 0.6680 and below – Credit Suisse

    The AUD/USD recovery has been rejected at the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 0.7146. In the view of analysts at Credit Suisse, a break below 0.6868 is needed to support a move to the YTD low at 0.6680 initially and then to the 61.8% retracement of the 2020/21 uptrend at 0.6461.

    Break above the 200-DMA at 0.7146 to signal further advance

    “We look for further weakness to unfold, with a break below 0.6868 needed to support a move to the YTD low at 0.6680 initially and then to the 61.8% retracement of the 2020/21 uptrend at 0.6461.” 

    “A break above the 200-DMA at 0.7146 would signal further advance to the June high at 0.7282, which would need to hold to prevent a deeper upmove to the late April high and the potential downtrend from 2021 at 0.7457/7547.”

     

  • 08:58

    USD/CAD to tick down towards 1.27 by year-end – Scotiabank

    The Canadian dollar (CAD) remains the best-performing G10 currency – outside of the USD – so far this year. Economists at Scotiabank expect the USD/CAD pair to end the year trading around the 1.27 level.

    Outlook revised but positives remain

    “We have relented on our bullish prognosis for the CAD in H2 2022 and now look for USD/CAD to hold near current levels over the balance of the year (ending 2022 at 1.27).” 

    “We continue to believe that our underlying fundamental story – we are forecasting relatively higher growth and tighter monetary policy in Canada over the US this year and next as well as relatively firm commodity prices – merits a stronger CAD forecast, however.” 

    “We target USD/CAD declining to 1.23 into the end of 2023.”

     

  • 08:55

    USD/CHF pierces 0.9500 during three-day uptrend, Fed Minutes eyed

    • USD/CHF picks up bids to refresh weekly top amid broad US dollar weakness.
    • Traders brace for hawkish Fed signals from FOMC Minutes.
    • Yields rebound but USD bulls stay alarmed with eyes on US Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes.

    USD/CHF renews its weekly high to 0.9515 as the US dollar buyers return to the table, after a brief absence the previous day. In doing so, the Swiss currency (CHF) pair rises for the third consecutive day by the press time of early European morning on Wednesday.

    US Dollar Index (DXY) refreshed its three-week high before reversing from 106.94, up 0.10% near the intraday high of 106.60 at the latest. The DXY rebound could be linked to the market’s preparations for today’s US Retail Sales for July, expected 0.1% versus 1.0% prior, as well as the Fed minutes.

    Additionally favoring the USD/CHF buyers could the latest bounce in the US Treasury yields, as well as fears of hawkish Fed bets.

    That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields defend the previous day’s rebound at 2.835%, up one basis points (bps), whereas S&P 500 Futures seesaw near a four-month high.

    Recently firmer US Industrial Production, up 0.6% in July versus 0.3% expected and upwardly revised 0.0% prior, joins mixed housing data to underpin the US dollar’s safe-haven demand. Also, China’s Premier Li Keqiang recently crossed wires, via the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper People’s Daily, while urging local officials from six key provinces that account for about 40% of the country’s economy to bolster pro-growth measures. On Wednesday, President Xi Jinping and state planner National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) showed readiness for more measures to combat the recession fears.

    It’s worth noting, however, that the USD/CHF run-up needs validation from the Fed Minutes to remain on the cards.

    Technical analysis

    The USD/CHF pair’s recovery beyond the 200-DMA, around 0.9440 by the press time, keeps the buyers hopeful of crossing the immediate resistance line stretched from mid-July, close to 0.9535 at the latest.

     

  • 08:55

    US Dollar Index to push the 107.00 area into FOMC Minutes – ING

    The dollar goes into today’s release of the 27 July FOMC minutes about 2% off the highs of the year. In the view of economists at ING, FOMC minutes as a communication tool against easing expectations should keep the US dollar supported.

    Dollar to stay supported into FOMC minutes

    “The question is whether the Fed wants to use these minutes as a communication tool to push back against the view of a 2023 easing cycle. Post-meeting rhetoric from the Fed suggests that this is more likely to be the case – especially since the Fed funds futures price the policy rate being cut from 3.60% to 3.20% in the second half of next year. A further rejection of this market pricing should help the dollar.”

    “Favour DXY pushing up the 107.00 area.”

     

  • 08:53

    EUR/GBP slips below 0.8400 mark, nearly two-week low on hotter-than-expected UK CPI

    • EUR/GBP drifts lower for the fourth straight day and drops to a nearly two-week low.
    • Hotter-than-expected UK CPI boosts the British pound and exerts downward pressure.
    • Energy supply concerns, recession fears undermine the euro and favour bearish traders.

    The EUR/GBP cross prolongs its recent sharp pullback from the vicinity of the 0.8500 mark and continues losing ground for the fourth successive day on Wednesday. The cross remains depressed following the release of hotter-than-expected UK consumer inflation figures and is currently placed just below the 0.8400 mark, or a nearly two-week low.

    The British pound edges higher after the UK Office for National Statistics reported that the headline CPI accelerated to the highest level since 1982 and rose 10.1% YoY in July. The reading was well above the 9.4% seen in June and 9.8% estimates, lifting bets for another rate hike by the Bank of England. This turns out to be a key factor exerting some downward pressure on the EUR/GBP cross.

    That said, concerns about an economic downturn might force the UK central bank to adopt a gradual approach to raising interest rates. It is worth recalling that the BoE had warned earlier this month that a prolonged recession would start in the fourth quarter. This, in turn, held back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around sterling and helped limit losses for the EUR/GBP cross.

    The shared currency, on the other hand, remains depressed amid mounting energy supply concerns, which could drag the Eurozone economy faster and deeper into recession. This, in turn, favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move for the EUR/GBP cross. Traders now look forward to the release of the flash (second estimate) Eurozone GDP print for a fresh impetus.

    Technical levels to watch

     

  • 08:52

    US Dollar Index: Break above 107.43 to trigger a resumption of the core bull trend – Credit Suisse

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded sharply from key flagged support from the May high, 55-day moving average and retracement support at 105.05/104.55. Analysts at Credit Suisse look for a potential resumption of the core uptrend.

    The setback since July is corrective

    “We look for a break above 107.43 to further reinforce our view that the setback has been corrective only for a retest of our target of major resistance at 109.25/110.25. An eventual break above here can expose the 121.02 high of 2001.”

    “A close below 104.55 would warn of a deeper but still corrective setback with support seen next at 103.67 and with strong support expected at 101.62/30.”

     

  • 08:48

    EUR/GBP to travel all the way back to 0.8350 on higher gas prices – ING

    Sterling strikes back at the euro, backed by a hawkish Bank of England (BoE). Economists at ING expect the EUR/GBP to move back lower towards 0.8350.

    Sterling enjoys the BoE re-pricing

    “Look at OIS pricing for the BoE policy rate in March 2023, market pricing has shifted from 2.72% in late July to close to 3.40% yesterday. And on top of that, UK inflation quickened to 10.1% year-on-year in July, faster than expected and a new 40-year high.”

    “Any further extension in the gas price surge could send EUR/GBP all the way back to 0.8350. As an exporter of natural gas, the US does not face these challenges and our bias in GBP/USD remains sub 1.20.”

     

  • 08:45

    EUR/CHF to slide towards 0.96 into Q4 – Scotiabank

    In the opinion of economists at Scotiabank, the Swiss franc (CHF) is poised to stay relatively firm, particularly as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may tolerate a stronger exchange rate to combat sticky domestic inflation. 

    Persistent CHF strength on sticky inflation

    “The SNB’s June decision to raise interest rates and allow the CHF to appreciate reflects the central bank’s concern that inflationary pressures, while low by international standards, are proving harder than expected to control.”

    “An ‘active’ approach to CHF management now allows the SNB to support the CHF if it weakens too far as well as curb strength.” 

    “The SNB policy rate is likely to rise a little more in the coming weeks and we look for the CHF to strengthen modestly against the EUR to 0.96 into Q4 as policy makers leverage the exchange rate to curb domestic prices.”

     

  • 08:44

    EUR/SEK: UNlikely to fall below 10.30 on a sustained basis this year – Commerzbank

    Economists at Commerzbank believe that the Swedish krona’s upside potential is exhausted. Therefore, the EUR/SEK pair is set to hold above the 10.30 mark.

    Limited upside potential for the SEK

    “Compared to the ECB, the Riksbank remains more active in the fight against inflation, which should in principle give the SEK an advantage over the euro. However, the SEK can also always come under pressure during periods of heightened uncertainty in the market.”

    “Since little more monetary tightening is likely to be priced in for this year, the SEK's upside potential is largely exhausted, which is why I do not see EUR/SEK falling below 10.30 on a sustained basis this year.”

     

  • 08:40

    EUR/USD: Break below support at 1.01 to open up a move towards parity – ING

    The euro is consolidating near the lows. Economists at ING expect the EUR/USD pair to drop under support at 1.01, triggering a move to parity.

    German recession is becoming inevitable

    “The gas crisis and what it means for eurozone growth prospects this winter is clearly taking a toll on the euro.”

    “A German recession is almost inevitable in the second half of the year.”

    “After a month of consolidation, EUR/USD does not look particularly oversold on technical indicators, and we continue to favour support at 1.0100 giving way to a move to parity.”

  • 08:36

    EUR/NOK: Krone to appreciate if the Norges Bank sounds restrictive – Commerzbank

    Norges Bank is set to raise the policy rate by 50 basis points to 1.75% on Wednesday. Economists at Commerzbank expect the Norwegian krone to strengthen against the euro on a restrictive central bank.

    How restrictive is Norges Bank?

    “If the Norges Bank sounds restrictive and signals another juicy move for September, the NOK should be able to appreciate against the euro. After all, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Norges Bank is taking a firm stance against inflation, while the ECB is acting hesitantly, which is weighing on the euro.” 

    “The more active central bank is Norges Bank, and the market should reward that with NOK strength, notwithstanding possible phases of increased risk aversion.”

     

  • 08:34

    GBP/USD to trade below 1.20 into year-end – Scotiabank

    In the UK, the cost-of-living crisis and sluggish growth may impede the Bank of England’s ability to confront soaring inflation and satisfy market expectations for tighter policy. This will weigh on the pound broadly, in the view of economists at Scotiabank.

    Negative outlook on surging inflation

    “Sterling’s outlook is negative and sentiment and positioning remain appropriately bearish.”

    “The BoE is likely to tighten policy again in September (50 bps) to curb surging inflation but weak growth prospects and the growing cost-of-living crisis as UK households face further, significant increases in energy costs in the coming months, suggest that there is only so much the economy can bear.” 

    “We expect cable to trade below 1.20 into year-end.”

     

  • 08:30

    USD/CNY threatens a bullish continuation pattern after surprising PBoC cut – Credit Suisse

    USD/CNY has helped to reinforce the broader USD rally and has moved higher following weak Chinese data and a surprise People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut, with the pair close to confirming a bullish continuation pattern, analysts at Credit Suisse report.

    Break above the 6.8110 high to confirm a move to 6.8475

    “USD/CNY has edged higher over the past few weeks and the market looks close to completing a bullish ‘triangle’ continuation pattern following the weak Chinese data and surprise PBoC cut.” 

    “Above the 6.8110 high should confirm a move to the 61.8% retracement of the 2020/21 decline at 6.8475. A sustained break above here would see resistance next at the 78.6% retracement at 6.9957.”

     

  • 08:30

    GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Buyers attack 163.10 resistance on strong UK inflation data

    • GBP/JPY extends the previous day’s rebound from a fortnight low on upbeat UK inflation data.
    • Convergence of 21-DMA, 100-DMA challenges buyers at the weekly top.
    • Clear break of three-week-old resistance line, impending bull cross on MACD also suggests further upside.

    GBP/JPY takes the bids to refresh the weekly top near 163.00 as bulls cheer strong UK inflation data during early Wednesday morning in Europe. In doing so, the cross-currency pair pokes the 21-DMA and 100-DMA confluence while extending the previous day’s upside break of the three-week-old resistance line, now support around 162.20.

    UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 10.1% YoY versus 9.8% expected and 9.4% previous readings while the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy items, rose to 6.2% versus 5.9% market consensus and 5.8% previous readouts.

    It’s worth noting that the quote’s rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June upside, as well as a looming bull cross of the MACD line, also signal the GBP/JPY pair’s further upside.

    Hence, buyers are all set to cross the 163.10 hurdle, which in turn could propel the prices towards July’s peak of around 166.35. However, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 163.75 could act as an extra filter to the north.

    Meanwhile, pullback remains elusive until the quote stays beyond the previous resistance line, now support near 162.20.

    Even so, a daily closing beneath the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 160.60 appears necessary for the GBP/JPY bears to keep reins.

    GBP/JPY: Daily chart

    Trend: Further upside expected

     

  • 08:29

    EUR/USD might quickly drop like a hot potato below parity on recession fears – Commerzbank

    EUR/USD is currently trading within a 1.00-1.04 range. If there is a trigger that catapults the pair out of the range, this breakout will most likely happen to the downside, in the view of economists at Commerzbank.

    Few reasons why EUR/USD should break out of its current 1.00-1.04 range

    “There are currently few reasons why EUR/USD should break out of its current 1.00-1.04 range, as there is no fundamentally new information at the moment that is likely to lead to a significant change in the Fed's or ECB's monetary policy course. At the same time, however, the risks for the euro are to the downside.”

    “If the purchasing managers' indices show sharp declines in the next publications, which increases the probability of a recession in the eurozone, the market might quickly drop the euro like a hot potato and push EUR/USD below parity.”

     

  • 08:28

    FX option expiries for August 17 NY cut

    FX option expiries for August 17 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

    - EUR/USD: EUR amounts        

    • 1.0075 297m
    • 1.0100-10 1.13b
    • 1.0115-20 336m
    • 1.0150 394m
    • 1.0175 367m
    • 1.0190-00 727m
    • 1.0270 254m

    - GBP/USD: GBP amounts        

    • 1.2050 441m

    - USD/JPY: USD amounts                     

    • 133.00 228m
    • 133.50 210m

    - USD/CHF: USD amounts        

    • 0.9380 315m

    - AUD/USD: AUD amounts  

    • 0.7025-30 556m
    • 0.7040 280m
    • 0.7065-70 284m
    • 0.7165 254m

    - USD/CAD: USD amounts       

    • 1.2595 330m
    • 1.2855 515m
  • 08:24

    USD/JPY to remain around the 140 level through year-end – Scotiabank

    Despite the JPY’s rebound against the USD since mid-July, analysts at Scotiabank see little reason for optimism on the near-term outlook. They forecast the USD/JPY at 140 by the end of the year.

    USD/JPY gains towards the 140 area in H2 may represent a high-water mark

    “Wide US-Japan yield differentials will keep the JPY soft for the foreseeable future while high commodity prices represent another, negative impulse on the currency (via a negative terms of trade shock).”

    “We expect USD/JPY to remain around the 140 level through year-end.”

     

  • 08:22

    RBNZ: 50 is the new 25, overall tone clearly hawkish – Danske Bank

    As was universally expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) increased the OCR by a further 50 basis points to 3%. Most of the uptick in NZD/USD eased quickly after the meeting. The tone of the Statement was hawkish while acknowledging both domestic and global downside risks to growth, economists at Danske Bank report.

    Hiking cycle could be extended into 2023

    “Despite the weakening global growth outlook and lower oil prices, RBNZ remains worried that the persistently tight labour market will continue to support the underlying inflation pressures.”

    “The policy rate path was lifted from the May meeting, now signaling that the hiking cycle could be extended into 2023 and the policy rate is also seen remaining at the high terminal level well into 2024. Consequently, the GDP forecast was lowered and unemployment rate is seen rising higher than previously.” 

    “The overall tone of the decision was clearly hawkish, RBNZ remains committed to bringing inflation back to target even if it will weigh on local economic growth over the coming years.”

     

  • 08:17

    UK’s Zahawi: Getting inflation under control is my top priority

    UK Finance Minister Nadhim Zahawi is offering his take on the country’s inflation, which surged to a new four-decade high of 10.1% in July.

    Key quotes

    “Getting inflation under control is my top priority.”

    “We are taking action through strong, independent monetary policy, responsible tax and spending decisions, and reforms.”

    Related reads

    • GBP/USD renews daily top above 1.2100 on firmer UK Inflation, focus on Fed Minutes
    • UK annualized inflation leaps to 10.1% in July vs. 9.8% expected
  • 08:16

    EUR/USD to slump below parity on severe energy supply disruption – Scotiabank

    The euro failed to benefit from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) surprise 50 bps hike in July. Negative growth surprises or energy supply disruption would risk pushing the EUR/USD below parity, economists at Scotiabank believe.

    Downside risks remain amid uncertainties

    “Economic prospects remain questionable, given the risk of high energy prices disrupting discretionary spending or, worse, curtailed natural gas supplies from Russia.”

    “In the event of severe energy supply disruption, EUR losses are likely to extend below parity.”

    “About the only thing in the EUR’s favour is that markets are already aggressively short the currency.”

     

  • 08:11

    GBP/USD renews daily top above 1.2100 on firmer UK Inflation, focus on Fed Minutes

    • GBP/USD spiked up to refresh daily top after upbeat UK inflation data for July.
    • UK CPI rose past market expectations and prior to 10.1% for July.
    • US dollar pullback, softer yields also underpin bullish bias ahead of US Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes.

    GBP/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high around 1.2145 after the UK released headline inflation numbers for July. In doing s, the Cable pair extends the previous day’s recovery from the weekly low.

    UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 10.1% YoY versus 9.8% expected and 9.4% previous readings while the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy items, rose to 6.2% versus 5.9% market consensus and 5.8% previous readouts.

    Also read: Breaking: UK annualized inflation leaps to 10.1% in July vs. 9.8% expected

    Not only CPI, but upbeat prints of the Retail Price Index, to 12.3% YoY compared to 12.0% expected and 11.8% prior, also favored the GBP/USD buyers as the Bank of England (BOE) has long been criticized for undertaking a softer attack on inflation mainly by the current UK PM front runner Liz Truss and her team.

    In addition to the firmer UK inflation figures, the US dollar’s pullback ahead of the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes also favors the GBP/USD bulls.  That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) refreshed its three-week high before reversing from 106.94, down 0.10% near the intraday low of 106.35 at the latest. The DXY losses could be linked to the market’s preparations for the key data/events amid increasing hawkish Fed bets.

    “Investors now see a 41% chance of a third successive 75 bps rate hike at the Fed's next meeting in September, up from 39% the previous day. Minutes from the previous meeting will be released later today,” said Reuters.

    Against this backdrop, US 10-year Treasury yields fade the previous day’s rebound while S&P 500 Futures seesaw near a four-month high.

    Having witnessed the initial reaction to the UK inflation data, the US Retail Sales for July, expected 0.1% versus 1.0% prior, will precede the FOMC meeting minutes will be crucial for the GBP/USD pair traders amid recently increasing hawkish bets on the Fed.

    Technical analysis

    GBP/USD approaches a one-week-old resistance line while portraying the third bounce off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of July-August advances.

    In addition to the sustained rebound from the key Fibonacci support, steady RSI and a looming bull cross of the MACD also keep the GBP/USD buyers hopeful of overcoming the 1.2110 immediate hurdle.

    Alternatively, pullback moves may initially test the 200-SMA, around 1.2045 at the latest, before revisiting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2030.

     

  • 08:07

    Natural Gas Futures: Further upside in store near term

    CME Group’s flash data for natural gas futures markets showed open interest increased for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, this time by around 5.2K contracts. Volume followed suit and clinched the second build in a row, now by more than 89K contracts.

    Natural Gas remains focused on $9.75

    Tuesday’s strong advance in prices of natural gas past the $9.00 mark per MMBtu was accompanied by increasing open interest and volume, which remains supportive of further gains in the very near term. Against that, it only seems a matter of time before the commodity challenges the 2022 peak around $9.75 (July 26).

  • 08:03

    United Kingdom PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a registered at 1% above expectations (0%) in July

  • 08:02

    United Kingdom PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a came in at 14.6%, below expectations (15.9%) in July

  • 08:02

    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a above forecasts (16.2%) in July: Actual (17.1%)

  • 08:02

    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a registered at 1.6% above expectations (0.8%) in July

  • 08:02

    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a came in at 22.6% below forecasts (23.9%) in July

  • 08:01

    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a registered at 0.1%, below expectations (1%) in July

  • 08:01

    Breaking: UK annualized inflation leaps to 10.1% in July vs. 9.8% expected

    • UK CPI rises by 10.1% YoY in July vs. 9.8% expected.
    • Monthly UK CPI arrives at 0.6% in July vs. 0.4% expected.
    • GBP/USD jumps towards 1.2150 on hotter UK CPIs.

    The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate came in at 10.1% in July when compared to 9.4% seen in June while beating estimates of a 9.8% score, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Wednesday. The index hit the highest level since 1982.

    Meanwhile, the core inflation gauge (excluding volatile food and energy items) rose to 6.2% YoY last month versus 5.8% booked in May, outpacing the market consensus of 5.9%.

    The monthly figures showed that the UK consumer prices climbed by 0.6% in July vs. 0.4% expectations and 0.8% previous.

    The UK Retail Price Index for July arrived at 0.9% MoM and 12.3% YoY, beating estimates across the time horizon.

    FX implications:

    In an initial reaction to the UK CPI numbers, the GBP/USD pair jumped 20 pips to daily highs near 1.2145.

    The pair was last seen trading at 1.2126, up 0.27% on the day. The US dollar retreats amid a better mood, underpinning the pair ahead of the Fed minutes.

    Why UK inflation matters to traders?

    The Bank of England (BOE) is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.

  • 08:01

    United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 6.2% above expectations (5.9%) in July

  • 08:01

    United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 10.1%, above forecasts (9.8%) in July

  • 08:01

    United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.9% above expectations (0.6%) in July

  • 08:01

    United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) came in at 12.3%, above forecasts (12%) in July

  • 08:01

    United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.4%) in July: Actual (0.6%)

  • 07:54

    AUD/USD to plunge towards 0.65 by the Q4 – Scotiabank

    The Australian dollar (AUD) has given back around half of the rebound made in the wake of the March 2020 pandemic low. Analysts at Scotiabank expect the AUD/USD to tumble towards 0.65 in the fourth quarter.

    RBA key rate to reach 2.50% by year-end

    “We see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) key rate reaching 2.50% by year-end (from 1.85% currently) whereas swaps are pricing in the policy rate near 3.25%.” 

    “We see some downside risk in the AUD outlook over the balance of the year and forecast 0.65 for Q4.”

     

  • 07:54

    EUR/USD bulls await EU GDP, Fed Minutes with eyes on 1.0210 hurdle

    • EUR/USD grinds higher around daily top, keeps Tuesday’s bounce off three-week low.
    • Softer yields, hopes of firmer EU data favor corrective pullback.
    • 21-DMA guards immediate upside amid impending bear cross on MACD.
    • Fed Minutes need to confirm 0.75% rate hike for September and do more to keep bears hopeful.

    EUR/USD remains mildly bid around the intraday high, keeping the previous day’s corrective pullback from a three-week low, as bulls and bears jostle ahead of the key data from Eurozone and the US. That said, the major currency pair seesaws around 1.080 heading into Wednesday’s European session.

    The major currency pair’s latest strength could be linked to the US dollar’s weakness, as well as cautious optimism in the market. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) refreshed its three-week high before reversing from 106.94, down 0.10% near the intraday low of 106.35 at the latest. The DXY losses could be linked to the market’s preparations for today’s US Retail Sales for July, expected 0.1% versus 1.0% prior, as well as the Fed minutes.

    “Investors now see a 41% chance of a third successive 75 bps rate hike at the Fed's next meeting in September, up from 39% the previous day. Minutes from the previous meeting will be released later today,” said Reuters ahead of the Fed Minutes.

    Elsewhere, Europe’s signals to renew the nuclear deal with Iran, as well as pushing back plans for the closure of Germany’s last three nuclear power plants, also appeared to have favored the EUR/USD bulls of late. It’s worth noting that downbeat US housing numbers and mixed German ZEW figures seemed to have failed in directing short-term pair moves.

    Amid these plays, US 10-year Treasury yields fade the previous day’s rebound while S&P 500 Futures seesaw near a four-month high.

    Moving on, EUR/USD traders should pay close attention to the second readings of the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to confirm the 0.7% QoQ forecasts, ahead of preliminary readings of Eurozone Employment Change for the second quarter (Q2), expected 2.5% versus 2.9% prior.  Also crucial will be the US Retail Sales for July, expected 0.1% versus 1.0% prior. Above all, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be crucial as markets renew hawkish bets on the Fed.

    Also read: FOMC July Minutes Preview: Can it influence September Fed rate hike expectations?

    Technical analysis

    With the retreat of the MACD line, the impending bear cross of the EUR/USD pair teases the sellers even if the quote approaches the 21-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.0210. Also acting as an upside filter is the previous support line from mid-July, close to 1.0245.

    Alternatively, the 1.0120 and 1.0100 mark could try to defend buyers before the EUR/USD bears aim for the fresh yearly low, currently around 0.9950.

     

  • 07:52

    Crude Oil Futures: Probable respite on the cards

    Considering advanced prints from CME Group for crude oil futures markets, traders trimmed their open interest positions by around 6.7K contracts on Tuesday, adding to the previous pullback. Volume, instead, rose for the second straight session, this time by around 183.3K contracts.

    WTI stays capped by the 200-day SMA

    Prices of the barrel of WTI dropped to new multi-month lows near the $85.00 mark on Tuesday. The continuation of the leg lower was in tandem with shrinking open interest, which could be indicative of a near-term pause in the downside. Against that, the 200-day SMA above the $95.00 mark per barrel continues to limit any occasional bullish attempts in prices.

  • 07:47

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD needs acceptance above 50 DMA to sustain the recovery

    Gold price is advancing for the first time so far this week. However, it remains to be seen whether the renewed upside in XAU/USD price will sustain, as all eyes turn toward the FOMC July meeting minutes, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports.

    XAU/USD’s battle with 50 DMA extends ahead of Fed minutes

    “The minutes will likely confirm the Fed remains on track on its aggressive tightening path to tame inflation, although hints on the size of the future rate increases will hold the key for the continuation of the recent uptrend in the US dollar, which will potentially have a significant impact on the bright metal.”

    “Gold price is looking to recover ground once again above the bearish 50-Daily Moving Average (DMA), now at $1,779. A sustained break above the latter is needed to revive a recovery towards the $1,800 threshold. The monthly high of $1,808 will then appear on buyers’ radars.”

    “Failure to find acceptance above the 50 DMA barrier will kickstart a fresh downtrend towards the upward-pointing 21 DMA at $1,762. Ahead of that sellers will challenge the $1,770 round figure once again. Should the selling pressure accelerate, a test of the August 3 low of $1,754 will be on the table.”

     

  • 07:43

    USD/INR: Rupee to rally in a sustainable way as inflation concerns ease – Scotiabank

    India’s inflation appears to have peaked. Therefore, the Indian rupee could be ready to race higher, according to economists at Scotiabank.

    Relief from falling commodity prices

    “We believe falling commodity prices could improve the nation’s external balance while bringing the nation’s inflation under control.” 

    “The INR will rally in a sustainable way when foreign investors shift their focus to India’s growth prospect from the nation’s inflation outlook.”

    “USD/INR will likely trade between 79 and 80 with downside risks.”

     

  • 07:40

    US Retail Sales Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, losing speed in July

    The US Census Bureau will release the July Retail Sales report on Wednesday, August 17 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts of economists and researchers of six major banks regarding the upcoming data. 

    Retail Sales are forecast to decline to 0.1% in June with the ex-autos to -0.1% and control to 0.6%. 

    Commerzbank

    “We expect only a small increase in retail sales of 0.2% due to falling gasoline prices. Such a figure would prove that the US economy has not yet slipped into a real recession, even though it contracted in the first half of the year.”

    TDS

    “We look for retail sales to lose speed in July (0.1%), following a notable 1% MoM jump in June. Spending was likely dented by a sharp drop in gasoline station sales, which should have been offset by a strong showing in control group sales (0.8%) – supported by Amazon's Prime Day. Sales ex-auto & gas should have also advanced by a solid 0.6% m/m. We also look for a new gain in the eating/drinking segment as consumers continue to transition away from goods.”

    ING

    “Retail sales at the headline level will be modestly depressed (0.3%) due to falling gasoline prices weighing on gas station sales as it is a nominal dollar figure. However, this frees up cash to spend on other goods and services so the ‘core’ rate of retail sales growth should rebound and help to translate into rising real consumer spending.”

    NBF

    “Car dealers likely contributed positively to the headline number, as auto sales increased during the month. Gasoline station receipts, for their part, may have decreased judging from a drop in pump prices. All told, headline sales could have advanced 0.7% MoM. Spending on items other than vehicles may have been a tad weaker, rising 0.5%.”

    CIBC

    “Total retail sales growth appears to have weakened in July as prices at the pump eased, while building material sales likely fell further along with the cooling in housing market activity. With some offset from higher unit vehicle sales and restaurant receipts, total retail sales likely eked out a 0.2% advance. The 0.5% growth expected in the control group (ex. gasoline, building materials, autos, and restaurants) will largely reflect higher prices, with sales volumes limited by consumer resistance to higher prices and the erosion in real incomes, consistent with reports from some major retailers lately.” 

    Citibank

    “US July Retail Sales – Citi: 0.0%, prior: 1.1%, Retail Sales ex Auto – Citi: -0.3%, prior: 1.0%, Retail Sales ex Auto, Gas – Citi: 0.3%, prior: 0.7%, Retail Sales Control Group – Citi: 0.3%, prior: 0.8%. We expect control group retail sales to increase by 0.3% MoM due to modest increases in most categories. That said, goods demand is expected to continue waning, which is likely to be reflected in weaker retail prints in real terms in the coming months.”

  • 07:39

    USD/CNH: Sustained gains look likely above 6.8400 – UOB

    FX Strategist at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research Quek Ser Leang comments on the prospects for USD/CNH.

    Key Quotes

    “About two months ago on 17 Jun 2022, when USD/CNH was trading at 6.7100, we noted in our Global Quarterly Outlook that ‘daily MACD is not strong’. We highlighted that ‘the overall price actions appear to be part of a consolidation phase’ and we expected USD/CNH to ‘trade sideways between 6.5930 and 6.8400 in 3Q22’.”

    “USD/CNH subsequently traded sideways, albeit within a narrower range than expected. Yesterday (15 Aug 2022), USD/CNH jumped to 6.8200 before closing higher by a whopping 1.16% (NY close of 6.8135), its largest 1-day gain since Mar 2020. Despite the large rise, daily MACD is only beginning to turn positive. In order to maintain the build-up in momentum, USD/CNH has to break and maintain a foothold above the year-to-date high near 6.8400 before a sustained advance is likely. To look at it another way, only a clear break of 6.8400 would indicate that the consolidation phase has come to an end.”

    “The chance for USD/CNH to break clearly above 6.8390 would remain intact as long as it does not move below the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud, currently near 6.7330. The top of the cloud support is close to another key support, the 55-day exponential moving average. Looking ahead, if USD/CNH can break and maintain a foothold above 6.8390, it could possibly trigger a move to 6.9000.”

  • 07:34

    Gold Futures: Room for a near-term rebound

    Open interest in gold futures markets dropped for the second session in a row on Tuesday, this time by around 1.6K contracts according to preliminary readings from CME Group. In the same line, volume resumed the downtrend and shrank by around 46.4K contracts.

    Gold shifts the attention to $1,800

    Gold prices extended the negative start of the week on Tuesday amidst diminishing open interest and volume, thus leaving the door open for a potential rebound in the very near term. That said, further recovery in the precious metals continues to target the key $1,800 mark per ounce troy.

  • 07:25

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD justifies falling wedge breakout near $1,780, Fed Minutes eyed

    • Gold price remains firmer after confirming a bullish chart pattern.
    • Softer US dollar, yields also underpin XAU/USD rebound from a one-week low.
    • US Retail Sales, headlines concerning China will also be important for fresh impulse.

    Gold price consolidates weekly losses around $1,778 amid broad US dollar weakness heading into Wednesday’s European session. In doing so, the XAU/USD traders also portray the cautious mood of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.

    That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) refreshed its three-week high before reversing from 106.94, down 0.10% near the intraday low of 106.35 at the latest. The DXY losses could be linked to the market’s preparations for today’s US Retail Sales for July, expected 0.1% versus 1.0% prior, as well as the Fed minutes. It’s worth noting that the recent weakness in the US data challenges the hawkish hopes from the Fed, which in turn exert downside pressure on the US dollar and favor gold buyers.

    Elsewhere, China’s Premier Li Keqiang recently crossed wires, via the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper People’s Daily, while urging local officials from six key provinces that account for about 40% of the country’s economy to bolster pro-growth measures. On Wednesday, President Xi Jinping and state planner National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) showed readiness for more measures to combat the recession fears.

    Given the dragon nation’s status of being the world’s biggest commodity user, any negatives for Beijing weigh on the gold prices. However, the latest rebound in XAU/USD could well be linked to the thinking that the hopes of more stimulus could push for more metal demand from China.

    While portraying the sentiment, US 10-year Treasury yields fade the previous day’s rebound while S&P 500 Futures retreat from a four-month high.

    Looking forward, US data and Fed Minutes could direct XAU/USD moves while the headlines concerning China and the recession will also be important for clear directions.

    Technical analysis

    A clear upside break of the weekly resistance line confirms the short-term falling wedge bullish chart pattern, which in turn directs gold price towards Friday’s peak of $1,805.

    However, the 200-HMA hurdle near $1,787 could challenge the XAU/USD bulls. Also acting as an upward resistance is the monthly peak surrounding $1,808.

    Alternatively, the resistance-turned-support near $1,777 precedes the stated wedge’s support, close to $1,770 by the press time, to restrict the short-term XAU/USD downside.

    Following that, the $1,765 and the monthly low of $1,754 will gain the gold sellers’ attention.

    Gold: Hourly chart

    Trend: Further upside expected

     

  • 07:02

    When is the UK inflation and how could it affect GBP/USD?

    The UK CPIs Overview

    The cost of living in the UK as represented by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July month is due early on Wednesday at 06:00 GMT.

    Given the recently released unimpressive employment data, coupled with the allegations of the Bank of England’s (BOE) inaction, today’s data will be watched closely by the GBP/USD traders.

    The headline CPI inflation is expected to refresh a 30-year high with a 9.8% YoY figure versus 9.4% prior while the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy items, is likely to rise to 5.9% YoY during the stated month, from 5.8% previous readouts. Talking about the monthly figures, the CPI could ease to 0.4% versus 0.8% prior.

    It’s worth noting that the recent pressure on wage prices and upbeat jobs report also highlight the Producer Price Index (PPI) as an important catalyst for the immediate GBP/USD direction.

    That being said, the PPI Core Output YoY may rise from 15.2% to 15.9% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis whereas the monthly prints may ease to 0.0% versus 0.8% prior. Furthermore, the Retail Price Index (RPI) is also on the table for release, expected to rise to 12.0% YoY from 11.8% prior while the MoM prints could ease to 0.6% from 0.9% in previous readings.

    In this regard, Westpac said,

    Annual inflation in the UK is expected to rise again in July as energy inflation pressures remain. Consensus is 0.4%mth; 9.8%yr, with core inflation ticking up to 5.9%yr. With another wave of retail energy prices looming in Q4, the Bank of England forecasts headline CPI to reach a staggering 13%yr before year-end.

    Deviation impact on GBP/USD

    Readers can find FXStreet's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined around 20-pips in deviations up to + or -2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements over 30-40 pips.

    fxsoriginal

    How could it affect GBP/USD?

    GBP/USD cheers the broad US dollar weakness while picking up bids to refresh the intraday high around 1.2115 ahead of the UK inflation releases.

    The BOE has long been criticized for undertaking a softer attack on inflation mainly by the current UK PM front runner Liz Truss and her team. While identifying the same, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey mentioned that he is “open for review”, which in turn highlights today’s CPI data for the GBP/USD traders.

    Should the inflation numbers manage to stay firmer on the MoM, in addition to posting the multi-year high YoY numbers, GBP/USD is likely to extend the latest recovery. Alternatively, pullback moves may have another chance of reversing as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes loom.

    Technically, the 20-DMA level, near 1.2500, tests the short-term GBP/USD upside. However, the cable pair’s ability to cross the one-month-old descending trend line, around 1.2250 at the latest, joins the firmer RSI line to underpin bullish bias.

    Key notes

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Pokes weekly resistance line around 1.2100

    Technical view ahead of UK inflation data

    About the UK CPIs

    The Consumer Price Index released by the Office for National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

  • 06:39

    USD/CAD Price Analysis: Fades bounce off 50/100-SMA around 1.2850

    • USD/CAD picks up bids to consolidate Tuesday’s losses amid sluggish session.
    • Impending bear cross on MACD keeps sellers hopeful.
    • Four-day-old support line adds to the downside filter.

    USD/CAD struggles to defend the corrective pullback from the key moving averages as the quote retreats to 1.2850 during early Wednesday morning in Europe.

    In doing so, the Loonie pair drops back to the upward sloping support line from August 12 as the MACD teases sellers.

    Considering the quote’s failure to keep the bounce off the 100-SMA and 50-SMA, as well as the bearish MACD signals, the USD/CAD prices are likely to remain soft.

    However, a clear downside break of the stated support line and the SMA confluence, around 1.2845-40, becomes necessary for the pair bears to retake control.

    Following that, a slump towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of August 05-11, near 1.2790, can’t be ruled out.

    Meanwhile, recovery moves need to cross the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2890 to convince buyers.

    Even so, a downward sloping resistance line from August 05, close to 1.2920, could act as the last defense of the USD/CAD bears.

    Overall, USD/CAD is likely to remain sidelined, weak for the short-term, as traders await the key Fed Minutes.

    USD/CAD: Four-hour chart

    Trend: Further weakness expected

     

  • 06:15

    AUD/USD Price Analysis: Defends 21-DMA on a three-day downtrend

    • AUD/USD off lows but struggles around 0.7000 amid dismal Aussie wage data.
    • US dollar remains in a consolidative mode ahead of the Fed minutes.
    • Bears test bulls’ commitments at critical 21 DMA, with Australian jobs next of note.

    AUD/USD is resuming the downtrend seen so far this week, following Tuesday’s brief reprieve, as bears cheer the downbeat Australian Wage Price Index.

    The miss on the Australian wage data suggests that the RBA could slow down its tightening path amid the first signs of inflation cooling off. Thursday’s employment data will, therefore, hold the key for the RBA’s future policy guidance.

    Although the downside in the spot remains limited, courtesy of the hawkish rate hike by the RBNZ and a broad US dollar consolidation, as attention shifts towards the Fed July meeting minutes. The US dollar index is trading at 106.42, down 0.07% on the day.

    From a short-term technical perspective, the pair is drawing temporary support from the upward-pointing 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 0.6981.

    A breach of the latter will bring the horizontal 100 DMA at 0.6966 in play. A sharp drop towards the mildly bullish 50 DMA at 0.6896 could be in the offing if bears take out the 100 DMA.

    Therefore, it could be safe to say that the sell-off triggered following a rejection at a critical horizontal 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 0.7120 may be facing exhaustion.

    Buyers need to crack the daily high of 0.7070, above which is the 0.7100 round figure.

    On the flip side, the immediate downside cap aligns at 0.7000, below which sellers will look to challenge the 0.6970 demand area, where the 21 and 100 DMAs hang around.

    AUD/USD: Daily chart

    However, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) still holding above the midline, the ‘buy the dips’ trade could be seen in the aussie.

    Bulls need to crack the daily highs of 0.7033 in order to test the 0.7050 psychological level.

    The 21 and 100 DMA bullish crossover continues to keep the 200 DMA at 0.7120 on buyers’ radars.

    AUD/USD: Additional levels to consider

     

  • 06:06

    USD/INR Price News: Indian rupee retreats towards 79.50 key level ahead of Fed Minutes

    • USD/INR bounces off weekly low but stays below support-turned-resistance.
    • Softer oil prices, hopes of easing inflation in India favor pair sellers.
    • Recession concerns, anxiety ahead of the FOMC Minutes add strength to the bullish bias.

    USD/INR bounces off the weekly low to approach the previous support during early Wednesday, at 79.30 by the press time. In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair consolidates the recent losses as the US dollar regains acceptance ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.

    In addition to the US dollar’s corrective pullback and the pre-event anxiety, risk-negative headlines surrounding China and the recent improvement in oil prices also seems to have triggered the USD/INR rebound.

    WTI crude oil licks its wounds around the lowest levels since late January as it picks up bids to $86.70 by the press time. India’s reliance on energy imports and a record high trade deficit keeps the INR vulnerable to oil price moves.

    China’s Premier Li Keqiang recently crossed wires, via the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper People’s Daily, while urging local officials from six key provinces that account for about 40% of the country’s economy to bolster pro-growth measures. On Wednesday, President Xi Jinping and state planner National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) showed readiness for more measures to combat the recession fears.

    It’s worth noting that the recently easing inflation numbers from India and the WTI crude oil’s three-day downtrend to refresh the multi-month low seemed to have favored the USD/INR bears earlier.

    That said, US 10-year Treasury yields fade the previous day’s rebound while S&P 500 Futures retreat from a four-month high.

    Looking forward, the US Retail Sales for July, expected 0.1% versus 1.0% prior, as well as the FOMC meeting minutes, for clear directions. Also important will be the headlines concerning China and the recession.

    Technical analysis

    A convergence of the 21-DMA and a two-week-old ascending trend line, around 79.45, appears strong intraday hurdle for the USD/INR buyers to cross to retake control.

    On the contrary, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since late June, around 79.10, restricts the pair’s immediate downside ahead of directing the bears towards the monthly low near 78.40.

    USD/INR: Daily chart

    Trend: Pulback expected

     

  • 05:36

    NZD/USD Price Analysis: Reverses 50-SMA breakout as RBNZ’s Orr appears less hawkish

    • NZD/USD reverses post-RBNZ gains as RBNZ Governor Orr hints at sub-par growth, rules out 0.75% rate hike.
    • Convergence of 100-SMA, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement restricts short-term downside.
    • One-week-old horizontal resistance adds to the upside filters.

    NZD/USD takes offers to reverse the latest gains inspired by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) rate hike as Governor Adrian Orr seems cautiously optimistic during the press conference after the interest rate announcement on Wednesday. That said, the Kiwi pair drops to 0.6340, extending the pullback from 0.6383, by the press time.

    Also read: RBNZ’s Orr: Not forecasting recession but do see sub-par growth

    In addition to RBNZ’s Orr, the quote’s failure to defend the early day’s upside break of the 50-SMA, as well as the cross the one-week-old horizontal resistance, also lured the NZD/USD bears of late.

    It’s worth noting that the RSI (14) holds lower ground, suggesting a lack of momentum support.

    With this, the Kiwi pair remains vulnerable to testing the 0.6315-10 support confluence including the 100-SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August upside.

    However, the NZD/USD weakness past 0.6310 will be questioned by the 0.6300 and an upward sloping support line from mid-July, at 0.6281 by the press time.

    Meanwhile, the 50-SMA and the aforementioned horizontal hurdle, respectively around 0.6350 and 0.6385, guard the quote’s recovery moves.

    Following that, multiple levels around 0.6420 could test the NZD/USD bulls ahead of directing them to the monthly peak of 0.6468.

    NZD/USD: Four-hour chart

    Trend: Further weakness expected

     

  • 05:22

    EUR/USD Price Analysis: 1.0100 remains in sight below 21 DMA, EU GDP, Fed minutes awaited

    • EUR/USD consolidates the previous rebound amid a cautiously optimistic mood.
    • US dollar takes a breather ahead of Fed minutes, the euro awaits Eurozone GDP.
    • The shared currency remains weighed down by recession fears and gas crises.

    EUR/USD is trading modestly flat above 1.0150, as the US dollar bulls take a breather following a sharp pullback from three-week highs.  

    Investors turn cautious and refrain from placing any big bets on the main currency pair ahead of the preliminary Eurozone Q2 GDP and the Fed July meeting minutes.

    The Eurozone Q2 GDP may revive stagflation concerns amidst record-high inflation rate and the deepening energy crisis in the old continent. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes could offer insights on the size of the rate hike in the upcoming meetings. For September, markets are pricing roughly a 58% chance of a half percentage point Fed rate hike.

    Looking at EUR/USD’s daily chart, sellers remain hopeful so long as the price holds below the horizontal 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 1.0208.

    Therefore, the 1.0100 support level remains in sight, despite Tuesday’s rebound from almost three-week lows of 1.0122.

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned flattish but stays beneath the midline, suggesting that any uptick is likely to be sold into.

    A sustained move above the 21 DMA will negate the near-term bearish momentum, opening doors for a fresh advance towards the bearish 50 DMA at 1.0295.

    On a breach of 1.0100, selling pressure will intensify, as a retest of the parity will be inevitable. Although the 1.0050 psychological level could come to the rescue of EUR bulls.

    EUR/USD: Daily chart

    EUR/USD: Additional levels to consider

     

  • 05:05

    RBNZ’s Orr: Not forecasting recession but do see sub-par growth

    Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr is speaking at the August post-monetary policy meeting press conference on Wednesday, affirming the central bank’s hawkish policy tightening stance.

    Key quotes

    Not forecasting recession but do see sub-par growth.

    New Zealand spending is underpinned by employment.

    In a very strong position to get on top of inflation.

    Household balance sheets still in good shape.

    The neutral rate is a great unknown.

    Did not consider 75 bps rate hike today.

    50 bps moves have been orderly and sufficient.

    House prices are now far closer to levels that would be sustainable.

    Getting rates to 4% would buy comfort for policy committee.

    Market reaction

    NZD/USD is keeping its range above 0.6350 on these above comments, adding 0.27% on the day.

  • 04:54

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears are lurking below $1,785

    • Gold is under pressure on the daily chart, flat in Asia ahead of the FOMC minutes.
    • The price would be expected to move below daily support so long as the resistance holds near the 50% mean reversion around $1,785.

    Gold is flat on the day trading at around $1,776.50 and sticking to a tight range of between $1,773.91 to a high of $1,776.85. The yellow metal fell due to rising Treasury yields weighed on investor appetite. A slightly stronger US dollar was also a headwind for investor demand. The greenback is currently steady as investors await the release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes from its meeting of July 26-27.

     The US central bank raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 225 basis points to tame high inflation. The minutes could offer clues on further interest rate hikes. The Fed is expected to raise its policy rate by another 50 or 75 basis points at its next meeting on Sept. 20-21. US Treasury yields have been firm as a consequence and also due to the recession worries and despite nascent signs of a slowdown in inflation.

    Several Fed policymakers have spoken of the need for continued rate hikes despite the lower-than-expected outcome of last week's Consumer Price Index. "Fed officials have no choice but to sound tough in the face of a very, very tight labour market and far too high inflation," Kit Juckes, the head of FX strategy at Societe Generale argued. "It's hard to build a compelling case to sell the dollar in that world."

    Meanwhile, ''odds of a short squeeze in gold are notably declining,'' the analysts at TD Securities argued. ''However, our CTA positioning estimates suggest that a trend followers buying program contributed to lower rates over the past month, as algos were forced to cover shorts. While this supported higher prices in gold, the bar is razor thin for algorithmic trend followers to add to selling pressures in US10y Treasuries once more,'' the analysts said.

    ''This should further sap appetite to buy the yellow metal, while the bar for additional short covering rises further. Meanwhile, Shanghai traders are also likely to appear on the offer, particularly amid a weakening CNY. Gold prices are vulnerable, considering we see signs that gold sellers are lurking. Ultimately, prop traders are still holding a massive amount of complacent length, suggesting we have yet to see capitulation in gold, which argues that the pain trade remains to the downside.''

    Gold technical analysis

    Gold is carving out a bearish case below the counter trendline on the daily chart as follows:

    The price has stalled at a prior support level but would be expected to move below it so long as the resistance holds near the 50% mean reversion around $1,785.

  • 04:26

    AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Breaks 1.1000 key support on RBNZ rate hike

    • AUD/NZD takes offers to refresh monthly low after RBNZ’s 50 bps rate lift.
    • Clear break of 100-DMA, ascending trend line from late May favor sellers.
    • Bulls need validation from a fortnight-long resistance line to retake control.

    AUD/NZD stands on slippery ground after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced 50 basis points (bps) rate hike during Wednesday’s Asian session. That said, the cross-currency pair takes offers to refresh the monthly low near 1.09888 by the press time.

    The RBNZ matched expectations of a 50 bps rate hike, to 3.0%, but optimism from the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement seemed to have favored the AUD/NZD bears afterward.

    Also read:

    In addition to the RBNZ-led moves, the quote’s latest weakness could also be linked to the clear downside break of 1.1000 support confluence, now resistance, which comprises the 100-DMA and an upward sloping trend line from late May.

    With this, the AUD/NZD price becomes vulnerable to testing May’s low around 1.0920. However, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of March-August upside, near 1.0965, could offer immediate direction to the quote.

    Meanwhile, recovery remains elusive until successfully trading beyond the 1.1000 mark. Even so, the downward sloping resistance line from late July, at 1.1080 by the press time, could challenge the AUD/NZD bulls.

    In a case where the pair prices remain firmer past 1.1080, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the monthly high surrounding 1.1180 can’t be ruled out.

    AUD/NZD: Daily chart

    Trend: Further weakness expected

     

  • 04:09

    NZD/USD marches towards 0.6400 on RBNZ’s 50 bps rate hike

    • NZD/USD spikes up to refresh intraday high after RBNZ rate lift.
    • RBNZ matches market forecasts of 50 bps rate hike, signals suitability for further tightening.
    • Resumption of downside in the US Treasury yields, mildly offered stock futures to exert downside pressure on Antipodeans.
    • Comments from China’s Xi, softer NZ PPI teased Kiwi sellers earlier.

    NZD/USD takes the bids to refresh intraday high near 0.6365 as bulls cheer the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) 50 basis points (bps) rate hike during Wednesday’s Asian session.

    Although the RBNZ matched expectations of a 50 bps rate hike, to 3.0%, optimism from the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement seemed to have favored the NZD/USD bulls of late.

    Also read: Breaking: RBNZ Raises OCR By 50bp to 3.00% as expected, kiwi pops to 0.6365

    However, fears surrounding China, Europe, as well as a cautious mood ahead of the key data/events, challenge the Kiwi pair buyers of late.

    China’s Premier Li Keqiang recently crossed wires, via the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper People’s Daily, while urging local officials from six key provinces that account for about 40% of the country’s economy to bolster pro-growth measures. On Wednesday, President Xi Jinping and state planner National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) showed readiness for more measures to combat the recession fears.

    Given the dragon nation’s trade ties with the Pacific, as well as the status of being the world’s biggest commodity user, any negatives for Beijing weigh on the Antipodeans like NZD/USD.

    While portraying the sentiment, US 10-year Treasury yields fade the previous day’s rebound while S&P 500 Futures retreat from a four-month high.

    Having witnessed the initial reaction to the RBNZ’s moves, the NZD/USD pair traders will pay attention to comments from Governor Adrian Orr for fresh impulse. Following that, the US Retail Sales for July, expected 0.1% versus 1.0% prior, as well as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, for clear directions. Also important will be the headlines concerning China and the recession.

    Technical analysis

    Unless providing a daily closing below the monthly support line, around 0.6260 by the press time, NZD/USD buyers remain hopeful. However, a downward sloping trend line resistance, close to 0.6460 at the latest, challenges the upside momentum.

     

  • 04:03

    Breaking: RBNZ raises OCR By 50bp to 3.00% as expected, kiwi pops to 0.6365

    As expected, the RBNZ lifted the Official Cash Rate by 50bp from 2.5% to 3.0% and the statement is signalling further tightening ahead.

    NZD/USD has rallied by some 35 pips to a session high of 0.6365.

    RBNZ quarterly statement

    • Conditions need to continue to tighten.
    • Sees OCR at 3.69% in December this year (up from its previous projection at 3.41%).
    • Sees OCR at 4.1 in September 2023 (from 3.95%).
    • Sees OCR at 4.1% in December 2023 (from 3.95%).
    • Sees OCR at 3.65% in September 2025.
    • Core consumer price inflation remains too high and labour resources remain scarce.
    • Range of indicators highlight broad-based domestic pricing pressures.
    • Agreed that further increases in the ocr were required in order to meet their remit objectives.
    • Committee agreed that maintaining the recent pace of tightening remains the best means.
    • Agreed that domestic inflationary pressures had increased since may and to further bring forward the timing of ocr increases.
    • Resolute in its commitment to ensure consumer price inflation returns to within the 1 to 3 percent target range.
    • House prices have steadily dropped from high levels since November last year, and are expected to keep falling over the coming year towards more sustainable levels.

    Markets will be tuning into Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference later in the day. 

    About the RBNZ interest rate decision

    RBNZ Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD.

  • 04:00

    New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3%)

  • 03:51

    Australia’s 10-year Treasury yields drop below 3.30% after downbeat Wage Price Index

    • Australia’s benchmark Treasury bond yields print four-day downtrend, renews intraday low after Aussie data.
    • Australia Wage Price Index missed upbeat forecast on YoY, repeats QoQ readings in Q2.
    • Fears in the Australia’s equity market, China-linked pessimism also weigh on the Aussie bond coupons.

    The rush towards Australia’s Treasury bonds escalated after the nation published a downbeat Wage Price Index for the second quarter (Q2). The yields also take clues from the fears prevailing in Aussie equity markets. That said, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields take offers to refresh the intraday low near 3.276% during Wednesday’s Asian session.

    Aussie Q2 Wage Price Index reprinted 0.7% QoQ growth while missing 0.8% expectations. Further, the YoY figures also eased below market forecasts of 2.7% to 2.6%, versus 2.4% YoY prior.

    On the other hand, gains in mining shares should have favored the Aussie equity traders even as a sharp drop in biomedical giant CSL Ltd. challenges the bulls.

    On Tuesday, the RBA Minutes mentioned that the board expects to take further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions over the months ahead, but it is not on a pre-set path, per Reuters.

    It’s worth noting that China’s readiness for multiple measures to tame recession woes fail to convince the markets that the dragon nation could avoid economic slowdown. Also fueling the flight to safety is Europe’s signals to renew the nuclear deal with Iran while pushing back plans for the closure of Germany’s last three nuclear power plants. On the same line was the Washington Post (WaPo) news that mentioned that Chinese authorities ordered factories to suspend production in several major manufacturing regions to preserve electricity, as the country face the worst heat wave in six decades.

    On a broader front, the cautious mood ahead of US Retail Sales for July, expected 0.1% versus 1.0% prior, as well as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, also weigh on the market sentiment and the Aussie Treasury bond yields.

    While portraying the sentiment, US 10-year Treasury yields fade the previous day’s rebound while S&P 500 Futures retreat from a four-month high. Further, Australia’s benchmark equity index ASX 200 prints mild losses at around 7,098 by the press time.

    Moving on, headlines concerning China and the recession will be important for the AUD/USD traders ahead of Thursday’s Aussie jobs report.

    Also read: AUD/USD slides beneath 0.7000 threshold on softer Australia wage data

  • 03:48

    AUD/JPY crashes on Aussie wage data miss

    • AUD/JPY drops following key wage data miss.
    • AUD/JPY's M-formation could lead to a downside continuation towards 92.50 in the near term.

    AUD/JPY dropped on the back of a miss in the Wage Price Index and is now down 0.5% on the day. The pair fell from 94.15 to a low of 93.76. The data arrived as follows:

    • Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) Q2: 0.7% (est 0.8%; prev 0.7%) .
    • Wage Price Index (YoY) Q2: 2.6% (est 2.7%; prev 2.4%).

    Meanwhile, fears of a significant slowdown of the Chinese economy have weighed on the Australian dollar this week due to lower demand for iron ore and other assets from China. Figures for Industrial Production, Retail Sales and fixed asset investments, as released by the National Bureau of Statistics, missed expectations in July.

    Additionally, worries about a more pronounced cooling rose from a surprising rate cut by the Chinese central bank PBoC. Investors figured that the PBoC is alarmed about the extent of economic weakening as it tries to revive credit demand to support the COVID-hit economy after a string of weak economic data releases for July.  

    Looking ahead, the labour data is coming up. ''July is a seasonally strong month for job gains and we look for the unemployment rate to trend lower. Another strong labour print should give the RBA the assurance that the economy can withstand a cash rate of 3% by end-2022,'' analysts at TD Securities explained. 

    AUD/JPY technical analysis

    AUD/JPY's M-formation could lead to a downside continuation towards 92.50 in the near term with the price being resisted near the 61.8% Fibonacci.

  • 03:47

    China Premier Li urges local officials to bolster pro-growth measures

    Citing China’s Premier Li Keqiang,  the People’s Daily, the flagship newspaper of the Communist Party, reported that Li urged local officials from six key provinces that account for about 40% of the country’s economy to bolster pro-growth measures.

    Key quotes

    Officials at a meeting should take the lead in helping boost consumption and offer more fiscal support via government bond issuance for investments.

    Vow to “reasonably” step up policy support to stabilize employment, prices and ensure economic growth.

    Only when the main entities of the market are stable can the economy and employment be stable.

    Only by development shall we solve all problems.

    Opening up is the only way to make full use of the two markets and resources and improve international competitiveness.

    Related reads

    • AUD/USD slides beneath 0.7000 threshold on softer Australia wage data
    • USD/CNY fix: 6.7863 vs. est 6.7876 and previous 6.7730
  • 03:37

    AUD/USD slides beneath 0.7000 threshold on softer Australia wage data

    • AUD/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low after downbeat Australia Wage Price Index.
    • Aussie Wage Price Index missed strong market expectations in Q2.
    • US dollar pullback ahead of Fed Minutes adds strength to the upside momentum.
    • US Retail Sales, risk catalysts are also important for clear directions.

    AUD/USD fails to justify the previous day’s bullish Doji as it renews intraday low near 0.6990 after Australia’s Wage Price Index for the second quarter (Q2). Also exerting downside pressure on the Aussie pair is the mixed sentiment ahead of the US Retail Sales and Fed Minutes.

    That said, Aussie Q2 Wage Price Index reprinted 0.7% QoQ growth while missing 0.8% expectations. Further, the YoY figures also eased below market forecasts of 2.7% to 2.6%, versus 2.4% YoY prior.

    While tracking the Aussie data and the market’s indecision, the AUD/USD pair ignores the US dollar moves.

    That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) refreshed its three-week high before reversing from 106.94, down 0.05% near the intraday low of 106.40 at the latest. The DXY losses could be linked to the market’s preparations for today’s US Retail Sales for July, expected 0.1% versus 1.0% prior, as well as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. It’s worth noting that the recent weakness in the US data challenges the hawkish hopes from the Fed, the same highlights today’s Fed Minutes.

    Also read: Australian Wage Price Index: +0.7% vs. expected +0.8%, AUD/USD drops 20 pips

    Elsewhere, gains in mining shares should have favored the Aussie equity traders even as a sharp drop in biomedical giant CSL Ltd. challenges the bulls. On the same line could be China’s readiness for multiple measures to tame recession woes, even if the markets have little belief that the dragon nation could avoid economic slowdown.

    Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures struggle for clear directions near a four-month high while the US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw around 2.82% after snapping a two-day downtrend the previous day.

    Looking forward, headlines concerning China and recession will be important for the AUD/USD traders ahead of Thursday’s Aussie jobs report, not to forget the FOMC Minutes and US Retail Sales.

    Technical analysis

    Sustained recovery from a four-month-old previous resistance line, at 0.6990 by the press time, keeps AUD/USD buyers hopeful to mark another battle with the 200-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.7120.

     

  • 03:32

    Australian Wage Price Index: +0.7% vs. expected +0.8%, AUD/USD drops 20 pips

    The Australian Wage Price Index released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is out as follows:

    • +0.7% vs. expected +0.8%

    The data has weighed on the price of AUD. AUD/USD is losing 20 pips on the release to 0.6998 the low of the session so far.

    About the Wage Price Index

    The Wage Price Index released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is an indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia pays close attention to it when setting interest rates. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

  • 03:30

    Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.7%, below expectations (0.8%) in 2Q

  • 03:30

    Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.6% below forecasts (2.7%) in 2Q

  • 03:23

    NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls move in on a critical 4-hour resistance

    • NZD/USD on the 4-hour chart will need to overcome the resistance near 0.6350,
    • Bears will be looking for a move to test 0.63 the figure. 

    The Kiwi is little changed from yesterday after bouncing as the USD DXY came off highs. The focus is now on today’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand MPS and the kiwi is treading water in the lead-up. The following illustrates the prospect of a move higher from a key area of support on the charts. 

    NZD/USD daily chart

    The price fell to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the daily chart where it meets the neckline of the W-formation as illustrated above. On the other hand, a break of the trendline support will open risks of a significant move lower:

    NZD/USD H4 chart

    NZD/USD on the 4-hour chart will need to overcome the resistance near 0.6350 or face the prospects of a bearish continuation into 0.63 the figure. 

  • 03:22

    USD/CNY fix: 6.7863 vs. est 6.7876 and previous 6.7730

    In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 6.7863 vs.the estimated at 6.7876 and the previous 6.7730.

    About the fix

    China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland.

    The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled.

    Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

  • 03:16

    WTI Price Analysis: Prints four-day downtrend, $85.30 appears the last defense for bulls

    • WTI remains pressured around the lowest levels since late January.
    • Clear U-turn from 200-DMA, downside break of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level favor bears.
    • Monthly support line challenges further downside as RSI approaches oversold territory.

    WTI crude oil prices fade the corrective pullback from a nearly seven-month low, marked the previous day, as the bears keep reins for the third consecutive day. That said, the quote recently dropped to $86.25 during Wednesday’s Asian session.

    The black gold’s latest weakness could be linked to its reversal from the $94.55 resistance confluence including the 200-DMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of December 2021 to March 2022 upside. Also keeping the commodity bears hopeful is the latest downside break of the 61.8% Fibo.

    However, nearly oversold RSI (14) joins the monthly support line, at $85.30 by the press time, to challenge the WTI bears.

    Also acting as a downside filter is the yearly low near $81.70, a break of which could make the quote vulnerable to a slump towards the early December 2021 high near $73.20.

    Alternatively, recovery moves need to cross the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $86.80 to convince WTI buyers.

    Even so, the convergence of the 200-DMA and the 50% Fibo. near $94.55, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls.

    If at all the quote rises past $94.55, the odds of its run-up to the monthly high surrounding $101.00 can’t be ruled out.

    WTI: Daily chart

    Trend: Limited downside expected

     

  • 02:53

    When is the RBNZ and how it could affect NZD/USD?

    Early Wednesday at 02:00 GMT market sees the key monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) amid hopes of another hawkish play by the New Zealand central bank.

    RBNZ is expected to announce the seventh back-to-back increase in its benchmark interest rate, from 2.5% to 3.0%, not to forget a fourth straight 50 basis points (bps) rate hike.

    Although the rate hike is mostly priced in, the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement and the press conference by RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr make the event crucial for NZD/USD traders, especially when the global inflation fears abate.

    Ahead of the event, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said,

    We are expecting a hawkish tone today as the RBNZ tries to reiterate the battle to bring down surging inflation is far from over. Upside surprises in domestic inflation and wage growth, along with the recent falls in domestic mortgage rates given the Monetary Policy Committee little choice but to send a clear message.

    On the same line, analysts at Westpac said,

    The RBNZ is widely expected to lift the Official Cash Rate by 50bp from 2.5% to 3.0% and to continue signaling further tightening ahead. There will be plenty to absorb in the quarterly statement, followed by Governor Orr’s press conference an hour later.

    Considering the market consensus, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta said,

    Wednesday’s RBNZ announcement could fail to offer any reprieve to NZD bulls if the bank delivers the expected 50 bps rate hike but underscores growth concerns and hints at a potential easing in its rate-hike track.  

    How could it affect NZD/USD?

    NZD/USD remains pressured towards 0.6300 during the three-day downtrend, down 0.15% intraday at 0.6335 by the press time, as Kiwi buyers brace for the 0.50% rate hike amid a sluggish Asian session on Wednesday. The quote’s latest weakness could be linked to the market’s anxiety ahead of the key RBNZ verdict. The same pay less attention to the recent pullback in the US dollar as the greenback traders prepare for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.

    That said, the RBNZ’s fourth rate hike worth 50 bps is widely discussed and seemed to have been capitalized by the bulls between mid-July and early August. Hence, an increase in the benchmark rate worth the estimations won’t make any major difference to the Kiwi pair trader until the accompanying rate statements and Governor Orr’s press conference hint at a further increase in the Official Cash Rate (OCR).

    Even so, a knee-jerk rise on the 50 bps rate hike can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, a disappointment from the RBNZ, either via a softer rate hike or cautious comments, should be considered heavily negative for the NZD/USD prices. However, it also depends upon the Fed Minutes as to how low the Kiwi pair can fall.

    Technically, NZD/USD recently bounced off the 100-DMA support around 0.6320 amid bullish RSI divergence. The recovery moves, however, need validation from a downward sloping resistance line from late April, close to 0.6460 by the press time.

    Keynotes

    NZD/USD pauses two-day downtrend around 0.6350 with eyes on RBNZ, Fed Minutes

    Reserve Bank of New Zealand Preview: Growth fears could temper hawkish rhetoric

    About the RBNZ interest rate decision and rate statement

    The RBNZ interest rate decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD. The RBNZ rate statement contains the explanations of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

  • 02:43

    USD/CAD sits firm following a significant drop

    • USD/CAD has been pressured in a resurgence in the commodity currency.
    • CAD strengthens despite a drop in oil prices.

    The Canadian dollar USD/CAD was flat at 1.2846 to the greenback, but the loonie managed to regain some of the previous day's sharp decline as investors raised bets on another oversized interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. Data has shown rising underlying inflation pressures.

    Canada's annual inflation rate slowed to 7.6% in July as gasoline prices eased, but that was still far above the Bank of Canada's 2% target. Canadian inflation may have peaked, but it remains far too high, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said in a newspaper op-ed. In July, the BoC hiked by a full percentage point. Money markets have been pricing in 59 basis points of tightening by the central bank at its next policy announcement on Sept. 7, up from 53 basis points before the data. Canadian government bond yields jumped across a flatter curve.

    Meanwhile, the move higher for the Canadian dollar happened despite pressure on the price of oil. The prospect of an Iran nuclear deal continued to weigh on crude oil prices, analysts at ANZ Bank explained. US crude oil futures CL1! settled 3.2% lower at $86.53 a barrel, their lowest since before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as economic data spurred concerns about a potential global recession.''

    Brent futures fell 3.2% as talks between Iran and European Union negotiators signalled progress on a renewal of the 2015 agreement. EU mediators had circulated a final proposal last week. It has been reported that Iran’s response was constructive, and they are now consulting with the US on a way ahead for the protracted talks,'' analysts at ANZ Bank explained. 

    USD/CAD H4 chart

    On the charts, a break of the 61.8% ratio to the downside would be a significant move but while it holds, the bias is to the upside as per the chart above.

  • 02:41

    US Dollar Index dribbles around mid-106.00s with eyes on US Retail Sales, Fed Minutes

    • US Dollar Index struggles to defend buyers after reversing from three-week top.
    • Dicey markets ahead of the key data/events keep traders on their toes.
    • Recession woes, geopolitical tussles challenge optimists amid mixed data.
    • FOMC Minutes will be watched closely to confirm 0.75% rate hike in September.

    US Dollar Index (DXY) treads water around 106.50 amid cautious sentiment ahead of crucial data/events. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies refreshed its three-week high before reversing from 106.94 the previous day.

    Economic concerns surrounding China and Europe should have joined geopolitical fears and recently increasing hawkish Fed bets to underpin the DXY run-up. However, firmer equities and a retreat of the bond buyers appeared to have tamed the greenback bulls of late.

    China’s readiness for multiple measures to tame recession woes joined Europe’s signals to renew the nuclear deal with Iran while pushing back plans for the closure of Germany’s last three nuclear power plants. On the same line was the Washington Post (WaPo) news that mentioned that Chinese authorities ordered factories to suspend production in several major manufacturing regions to preserve electricity, as the country face the worst heat wave in six decades.

    Further, the latest news from Tokyo media suggesting Russian alerts to Japanese companies about the Sakhalin-2 transfer plan, as well as high-level talks between Japan and China, highlight the geopolitical fears and favor the US dollar’s haven demand.

    On the other hand, US Industrial Production grew 0.6% in July versus 0.3% expected and upwardly revised 0.0% prior whereas Building Permits also increased to 1.674M MoM during the stated month versus 1.656 market expectations and 1.696M previous readings. Additionally, the Housing Starts dropped to 1.446M from 1.599M prior and 1.54M expected.

    While portraying the mood, Wall Street managed to close on the positive side, despite retreating by the end of the day. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields snapped a two-day downtrend by regaining 2.80% at the latest. It should be noted that the US 10-year Treasury yields keep the previous day’s rebound at 2.82% while the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses at the latest.

    Moving on, risk catalysts may direct immediate DXY moves ahead of US Retail Sales for July, expected 0.1% versus 1.0% prior, as well as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.

    Given the looming doubts over the Fed’s hawkish play, softer US data and signals of no more 0.75% rate hikes could drown on the DXY.

    Technical analysis

    Although the 107.00 hurdle challenge DXY bulls, a sustained break of the two-week-old descending trend line, at 106.30 by the press time, keeps the buyers hopeful.

     

  • 02:32

    Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.2% to -0.15% in July

  • 02:22

    USD/JPY leans bullish above 134.00, traces firmer yields ahead of Fed Minutes

    • USD/JPY extends the previous day’s run-up at weekly top.
    • Japan’s trade numbers, Tankan sentiment data came in firmer but Machinery Orders eased.
    • Yields stay firmer even as fears of economic slowdown, geopolitical tussles escalate.
    • US Retail Sales, FOMC Meeting Minutes will be important for fresh impulse.

    USD/JPY holds onto the latest bullish bias while picking up bids to refresh the intraday high near 134.40 as Tokyo opens on Wednesday. The yen pair’s latest run-up could be linked to the firmer yields.

    In doing so, the quote ignores the US dollar pullback while trying to justify the mixed data at home and abroad.

    That said, Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance dropped to ¥-1,436.8B in July versus ¥-1,405B expected and the previous reading of ¥-1,383.8B. Further details suggest an improvement in Exports and Imports during the stated month. Also positive were the Tankan Manufacturing Survey results for August. “Japanese manufacturers' business confidence improved in August after last month's stall, while service-sector firms' mood rose for a second month to the highest point in nearly three years, the Reuters Tankan poll showed,” per Reuters.

    Additionally, Japan's core machinery orders rose 0.9% in June from the previous month, government data showed on Wednesday, lower than a 1.3% increase expected by economists in a Reuters poll.

    On the other hand, US Industrial Production grew 0.6% in July versus 0.3% expected and upwardly revised 0.0% prior whereas Building Permits also increased to 1.674M MoM during the stated month versus 1.656 market expectations and 1.696M previous readings. It should be noted that the Housing Starts dropped to 1.446M from 1.599M prior and 1.54M expected.

    It should be noted that US Dollar Index (DXY) refreshed its three-week high before reversing from 106.94. The greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies previously benefited from the flight to safety as China’s readiness for multiple measures to tame recession woes joined Europe’s signals to renew the nuclear deal with Iran while pushing back plans for the closure of Germany’s last three nuclear power plants. On the same line was the Washington Post (WaPo) news that mentioned that Chinese authorities ordered factories to suspend production in several major manufacturing regions to preserve electricity, as the country face the worst heat wave in six decades.

    On the same line was the latest news from Japanese media suggesting Russian alerts to Japanese companies about the Sakhalin-2 transfer plan, as well as high-level talks between Japan and China.

    Against this backdrop, Wall Street managed to close on the positive side, despite retreating by the end of the day. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields snapped a two-day downtrend by regaining 2.80% at the latest. It should be noted that the US 10-year Treasury yields keep the previous day’s rebound at 2.82% while the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses at the latest.

    Looking forward, US Retail Sales for July, expected 0.1% versus 1.0% prior, will entertain USD/JPY traders ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, which will be eyed for the clues of the 0.75% rate hike in September.

    Also read: FOMC July Minutes Preview: Can it influence September Fed rate hike expectations?

    Technical analysis

    A daily closing beyond the monthly resistance line, now support around 134.20, directs USD/JPY towards the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 135.40.

     

  • 02:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, August 16, 2022

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.70197 -0.03
    EURJPY 136.469 0.8
    EURUSD 1.01673 0.06
    GBPJPY 162.291 1.05
    GBPUSD 1.20913 0.3
    NZDUSD 0.6343 -0.34
    USDCAD 1.28448 -0.43
    USDCHF 0.94913 0.33
    USDJPY 134.232 0.75
  • 02:05

    Silver Price Analysis: Rising wedge confirmation favor XAG/USD bears above $20.00

    • Silver price remains pressured around one-week low, sidelined after two-day downtrend.
    • 50-DMA challenges sellers after confirmation of the bearish chart pattern.
    • Recovery remains elusive until the quote stays below 100-DMA.

    Silver price (XAG/USD) stays defensive around $20.10-15 as bears take a breather after a two-day downtrend near the weekly low. In doing so, the bright metal flirts with the 50-DMA support during Wednesday’s Asian session.

    Even so, the early-week confirmation of the rising wedge and the RSI retreat keeps sellers hopeful.

    That said, the $20.00 threshold appears to be the immediate support for the XAG/USD bears to watch to retake control.

    Following that, the mid-July low near $19.40 could probe silver’s downside before challenging the yearly low near $18.15.

    Alternatively, a corrective pullback may aim for the support line of the stated wedge, at $20.65 by the press time, ahead of directing the XAG/USD buyers towards the latest swing high near $20.85.

    It’s worth noting, however, that a convergence of the 100-DMA and the wedge’s upper line, close to $21.50-60, appears a tough nut to crack for the silver buyers to cross afterward.

    In a case where the quote remains firmer past $21.60, the odds of its run-up towards June’s peak of $22.50 can’t be ruled out.

    Silver: Daily chart

    Trend: Further weakness expected

     

  • 01:51

    Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total below forecasts (¥-1405B) in July: Actual (¥-1436.8B)

  • 01:51

    Japan Imports (YoY) above expectations (45.7%) in July: Actual (47.2%)

  • 01:51

    Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance came in at ¥-2133.3B below forecasts (¥-2003.8B) in July

  • 01:51

    EUR/USD: Corrective pullback approaches 1.0200, Eurozone GDP, Fed Minutes in focus

    • EUR/USD defends the bounce off two-week low ahead of the key EU, US data/events.
    • Economic fears surrounding Europe, China join mixed US data to challenge pair buyers.
    • Firmer yields, equities challenge bears amid market’s indecision.
    • FOMC Minutes will be eyed for clues of 0.75% rate hike in September.

    EUR/USD treads water around 1.0175, keeping the previous day’s rebound in a choppy trading range during Wednesday’s Asian session, as traders await the week’s key catalysts. Also challenging the pair traders are the mixed concerns surrounding growth and central banks.

    Fears of economic slowdown, mainly emanating from China and Europe, join firmer Treasury yields and positive equities to confuse the traders. It’s worth noting that the US dollar also retreated amid the market’s indecision.

    With this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) refreshed its three-week high before reversing from 106.94. That said, the DXY previously benefited from the flight to safety as China’s readiness for multiple measures to tame recession woes joined Europe’s signals to renew the nuclear deal with Iran while pushing back plans for the closure of Germany’s last three nuclear power plants. On the same line was the Washington Post (WaPo) news that mentioned that Chinese authorities ordered factories to suspend production in several major manufacturing regions to preserve electricity, as the country face the worst heat wave in six decades.

    Talking about the data, US Industrial Production grew 0.6% in July versus 0.3% expected and upwardly revised 0.0% prior whereas Building Permits also increased to 1.674M MoM during the stated month versus 1.656 market expectations and 1.696M previous readings. It should be noted that the Housing Starts dropped to 1.446M from 1.599M prior and 1.54M expected. Further, ZEW Sentiment data from Germany and Europe came in weaker for Economic Sentiment but improved a bit for Current Situation.

    Amid these plays, Wall Street managed to close on a positive side, despite retreating by the end of the day. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields snapped a two-day downtrend by regaining 2.80% at the latest. It should be noted that the US 10-year Treasury yields pause the previous day’s rebound while the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses at the latest.

    Looking forward, EUR/USD traders will initially respond to the second readings of the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to confirm the 0.7% QoQ forecasts, ahead of preliminary readings of Eurozone Employment Change for the second quarter (Q2), expected 2.5% versus 2.9% prior.  Also crucial will be the US Retail Sales for July, expected 0.1% versus 1.0% prior. Above all, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes appear as the key event of the day, as well as for the week.

    It’s worth noting that the Minutes statement will be eyed to confirm another hawkish move in September despite the latest reduction in the inflation fears.

    Technical analysis

    EUR/USD bounces off 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of late May to mid-July downturn, around 1.0150, with the previous support from July, at 1.0245 now, likely to restrict immediate upside.

     

  • 01:51

    Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) below expectations (1.3%) in June: Actual (0.9%)

  • 01:50

    Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) came in at 6.5% below forecasts (7.5%) in June

  • 01:50

    Japan Exports (YoY) above expectations (18.2%) in July: Actual (19%)

  • 01:35

    AUD/NZD bears eye a break of trendline support

    • AUD/NZD has corrected in a 50% mean reversion ahead of key data events.
    • Bears are looking for a break of the trendline support and structure at 1.0952.

    AUD/NZD is flat on the day so far ahead of the release of the Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today that is expected to see another 50bp lift in the OCR to 3.0%. The cross has been stalling on the bid within familiar ranges. AUD/NZD has stuck to 1.1057 and 1.1069 on the day.

    ''We are expecting a hawkish tone today as the RBNZ tries to reiterate the battle to bring down surging inflation is far from over. Upside surprises in domestic inflation and wage growth, along with the recent falls in domestic mortgage rates given the Monetary Policy Committee little choice but to send a clear message,'' analysts at ANZ Bank explained. 

    Meanwhile, the Aussie jobs data will be keenly monitored tomorrow whereby analysts at TD Securities said ''wages growth may accelerate in Q2 as firms face record labour constraints while workers may demand higher base wages with inflation at a 21-year high.'' The analysts added ''July is a seasonally strong month for job gains and we look for the unemployment rate to trend lower. Another strong labour print should give the RBA the assurance that the economy can withstand a cash rate of 3% by end-2022.''

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    The price has corrected in a 50% mean reversion and should the bears now move in, then a break of the trendline support and structure at 1.0952 will be a significant development.

  • 01:31

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Pokes weekly resistance line around 1.2100

    • GBP/USD keeps the previous day’s rebound, the consecutive third one from 50% Fibonacci retracement since late July.
    • Steady RSI, impending bull cross on MACD teases buyers to overcome immediate hurdle.
    • 100-SMA adds to the upside filters, multiple supports to challenge bears.

    GBP/USD picks up bids to extend the previous day’s recovery to 1.2100 during Wednesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Cable pair approaches a one-week-old resistance line while also portraying the third bounce off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of July-August advances.

    In addition to the sustained rebound from the key Fibonacci support, steady RSI and a looming bull cross of the MACD also keep the GBP/USD buyers hopeful of overcoming the 1.2110 immediate hurdle.

    Even so, the 100-SMA level of 1.2130 acts as an extra filter to the north before giving control to the bulls.

    Following that, the 1.2200 threshold may act as an intermediate halt during the run-up to the monthly high near 1.2295.

    Alternatively, pullback moves may initially test the 200-SMA, around 1.2045 at the latest, before revisiting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2030.

    In a case where the GBP/USD bears keep reins past 1.2030 key support, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and late July’s swing low, respectively around 1.1965 and 1.1890, will be in focus.

    GBP/USD: Four-hour chart

    Trend: Further upside expected

     

  • 01:16

    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Oscillates around 136.50 on risk appetite improvement

    • EUR/JPY bounced off weekly lows and gained almost 1% on Tuesday.
    • Albeit recovering from Monday’s losses, faltering of achieving a daily close above 137.00 left the EUR/JPY vulnerable to selling pressure.

    The EUR/JPY reached a new weekly low at 134.94 on Tuesday but staged a comeback and hit a daily high at 136.92 before closing at 136.50, off the day’s high. At the time of writing, the EUR/JPY is trading at 136.56, slightly up 0.02% as Wednesday’s Asian Pacific session begins.

    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    EUR/JPY Tuesday’s price action witnessed a shared currency recovery but faltering to close above Monday’s open at 136.89, leaving the cross vulnerable to sellers. Until Wednesday’s price action shows that the EUR/JPY trading above 137.00, the cross-currency pair is neutral-to-downward biased. Nevertheless, if the previously-mentioned scenario plays out, a rally towards the 50-day EMA at 138.00 is on the cards.

    Therefore, the EUR/JPY’s first resistance would be the 20-day EMA at 137.24. Once broken, the next supply zone would be the 100-day EMA at 138.09, followed by the 50-day EMA at 139.34.

    On the other hand, failure at 137.00 would open the door for further losses. The EUR/JPY first support would be 136.00. Break below will expose the weekly low at 134.94, followed by the 200-day EMA at 133.98.

    EUR/JPY Key Technical Levels

     

  • 01:11

    NZD/USD pauses two-day downtrend around 0.6350 with eyes on RBNZ, Fed Minutes

    • NZD/USD stays defensive at one-week low ahead of the key events.
    • New Zealand PPI grew more than forecast in Q2 but came in softer-than-prior.
    • Economic fears surrounding China, concerns over Fed’s September rate hike exert downside pressure.
    • RBNZ is likely to announce fourth consecutive 0.50% rate increase but bulls need more to retake control.

    NZD/USD struggles to defend the latest bounce off the 100-DMA as it seesaws near 0.6350 heading into the key interest rate announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) early Wednesday in Asia. In doing so, the Kiwi pair justifies the market’s indecision as the Fed Minutes also highlight today as the key day in the calendar.

    Recession woes join mixed data and anxiety ahead of September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting weigh on the NZD/USD prices of late. However, firmer equities and the US dollar’s pullback ahead of the Fed Minutes seem to challenge the Kiwi pair sellers. On the same line could be New Zealand’s second quarter (Q2) Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

    New Zealand’s PPI-Input rose past 2.2% expected to 3.1% in Q2 but stayed below 3.6% in previous readings. In the same way, the PPI-Output also crossed the 2.1% market forecasts with 2.4% QoQ figures while easing beneath the previous 2.6% prior.

    On the other hand, China’s state planner announced multiple measures to fight back the recession woes after downbeat data and the failure of the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) rate cut in impressing traders. Also, Washington Post (WaPo) mentioned that Chinese authorities ordered factories to suspend production in several major manufacturing regions to preserve electricity, as the country face the worst heat wave in six decades.

    It should be noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) refreshed its three-week high before reversing from 106.94. The greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies previously benefited from the flight to safety before the firmer equities and consolidation ahead of FOMC Minutes joined mixed data to weigh on the quote.

    That said, US Industrial Production grew 0.6% in July versus 0.3% expected and upwardly revised 0.0% prior whereas Building Permits also increased to 1.674M MoM during the stated month versus 1.656 market expectations and 1.696M previous readings. It should be noted that the Housing Starts dropped to 1.446M from 1.599M prior and 1.54M expected.

    While portraying the mood, Wall Street managed to close on the positive side, despite retreating by the end of the day. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields snapped a two-day downtrend by regaining 2.80% at the latest.

    Looking forward, NZD/USD traders will pay attention to the RBNZ’s announcement as New Zealand’s central bank is up for the seventh back-to-back increase in its benchmark interest rate, from 2.5% to 3.0%, not to forget a fourth straight 50 basis points (bps) rate hike.  It’s worth noting that the 0.50% rate lift is discussed and priced in, which in turn signals the “need for more” by the pair buyers. Following that, the Fed Minutes will be eyed to confirm another hawkish move in September despite the latest reduction in the inflation fears.

    Also read: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Preview: Growth fears could temper hawkish rhetoric

    Technical analysis

    NZD/USD recently bounced off the 100-DMA support around 0.6320 amid bullish RSI divergence. The recovery moves, however, need validation from a downward sloping resistance line from late April, close to 0.6460 by the press time

     

  • 00:51

    AUD/USD struggles above 0.7000 as traders await Aussie Wage Price Index, FOMC Minutes

    • AUD/USD fades bounce off one-week low, stays sidelined of late.
    • Fears emanating from China, mixed message from RBA Minutes challenge buyers.
    • US dollar pullback, firmer equities restrict immediate downside ahead of the key Aussie data.
    • RBA emphasizes firmer wage growth, Fed Minutes eyed for stronger rate hikes.

    AUD/USD portrays the market’s anxiety as it seesaws around 0.7020 ahead of the key Australia wage price data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on early Wednesday in Asia. That said, the risk barometer pair dropped during the last two days amid recession and geopolitical fears before bouncing off a one-week low in late Tuesday.

    Pessimism surrounding Australia’s major customer China and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cautious remarks over the next rate hike move appeared to have exerted major downside pressure on the AUD/USD prices of late.

    On Tuesday, the RBA Minutes mentioned that the board expects to take further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions over the months ahead, but it is not on a pre-set path, per Reuters. On the other hand, China’s state planner announced multiple measures to fight back the recession woes after downbeat data and the failure of the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) rate cut in impressing traders. Also, Washington Post (WaPo) mentioned that Chinese authorities ordered factories to suspend production in several major manufacturing regions to preserve electricity, as the country face the worst heat wave in six decades.

    Talking about data, US Industrial Production grew 0.6% in July versus 0.3% expected and upwardly revised 0.0% prior whereas Building Permits also increased to 1.674M MoM during the stated month versus 1.656 market expectations and 1.696M previous readings. It should be noted that the Housing Starts dropped to 1.446M from 1.599M prior and 1.54M expected.

    Against this backdrop, Wall Street managed to close on the positive side, despite retreating by the end of the day. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields snapped a two-day downtrend by regaining 2.80% at the latest.

    Moving on, Australia’s second quarter (Q2) Wage Price Index, expected at 0.8% QoQ versus 0.7% prior, will be important for immediate AUD/USD moves as RBA emphasizes more on the wage data and inflation. Following that, the Fed Minutes will be crucial for clear directions as traders doubt a 0.75% rate hike in September after the latest easing in inflation.

    Technical analysis

    A four-month-old previous resistance line restricts immediate AUD/USD downside to around 0.6990. The recovery moves, however, need validation from the 200-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.7120. That said, the RSI (14) favors the quote’s further upside as the oscillator backs the higher low on prices with a higher low on the histogram.

     

  • 00:45

    New Zealand Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ) registered at 2.4% above expectations (2.1%) in 2Q

  • 00:45

    New Zealand Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ) above expectations (2.2%) in 2Q: Actual (3.1%)

  • 00:30

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stays pressured towards $1,755 ahead of Fed Minutes

    • Gold price holds lower ground near one-week low after two-day downtrend.
    • Mixed sentiment, anxiety ahead of Fed Minutes kept XAU/USD on the back foot.
    • Recession talks gained major attention, China, Europe in focus.
    • FOMC Minutes will be eyed closely to confirm 75 bps rate hike in September.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) prints a three-day downtrend as it grinds lower around $1,775 during the initial hours of Wednesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the precious metal fades the late Tuesday’s bounce off $1,772 as traders turn cautious ahead of today’s key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.

    That said, fears of economic slowdown, mainly emanating from China and Europe, join firmer Treasury yields and positive equities to confuse the traders. It’s worth noting that the US dollar also retreated amid the market’s indecision.

    US Dollar Index (DXY) refreshed its three-week high before reversing from 106.94. The greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies previously benefited from the flight to safety as China’s readiness for multiple measures to tame recession woes joined Europe’s signals to renew the nuclear deal with Iran while pushing back plans for the closure of Germany’s last three nuclear power plants. On the same line was the Washington Post (WaPo) news that mentioned that Chinese authorities ordered factories to suspend production in several major manufacturing regions to preserve electricity, as the country face the worst heat wave in six decades.

    Elsewhere, US Industrial Production grew 0.6% in July versus 0.3% expected and upwardly revised 0.0% prior whereas Building Permits also increased to 1.674M MoM during the stated month versus 1.656 market expectations and 1.696M previous readings. It should be noted that the Housing Starts dropped to 1.446M from 1.599M prior and 1.54M expected. On a different page, UK’s employment numbers failed to impress traders while Canada’s inflation matched consensus. Further, ZEW Sentiment data from Germany and Europe came in weaker for Economic Sentiment but improved a bit for Current Situation.

    Amid these plays, Wall Street managed to close on a positive side, despite retreating by the end of the day. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields snapped a two-day downtrend by regaining 2.80% at the latest.

    Moving on, headlines surrounding China and inflation may entertain XAU/USD traders but major attention will be given to the Minute Statement wherein traders are more interested in the hints of a 75 basis point (bps) rate hike in September.

    Also read: FOMC July Minutes Preview: Can it influence September Fed rate hike expectations?

    Technical analysis

    Gold defends the early week's downside break of the 50-day EMA amid steady RSI and receding bullish bias of the MACD, suggesting further weakness in XAU/USD prices.

    That said, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-July downtrend, near $1,755, is likely immediate support for the yellow metal.

    Following that, multiple levels around $1,740 and $1,710 could entertain the commodity bears ahead of targeting the yearly low near $1,680.

    Meanwhile, the 50-EMA level near $1,784 restricts the immediate upside of the gold price before the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,803.

    It’s worth noting, however, that a convergence of the 200-EMA, descending trend line from late April and a one-month-old upward sloping resistance line highlight $1,820-25 as the key hurdle for the bulls to cross to retake control.

    Gold: Daily chart

    Trend: Further weakness expected

     

  • 00:15

    GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Soars above the 162.00 figure, on risk-on impulse

    • GBP/JPY eradicates Monday’s gains and gained more than 1% on Tuesday.
    • The GBP/JPY is downward biased, but Tuesday’s price action opened the door for further upside, targeting the 50-DMA at 163.86.

    The GBP/JPY pares Monday’s losses and some more, forming a bullish-engulfing candle pattern, meaning buyers overcome sellers, reciaiming the 162.00 figure on its way north. However, solid resistance lies ahead of the current exchange rate, with the 20 and 100-day EMAs hovering around the 162.80-163.00 area. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading at 162.39.

    GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    The cross-currency pair is exchanging hands below the 20, 100, and 50-day EMAs, suggesting that the GBP/JPY is downward biased. Nevertheless, Tuesday’s rally towards the 162.80-163.00 area, although rejected, it opened the door for further gains. So from a technical perspective, a break above the latter will put the 50-day EMA at 163.086 in play, ahead of the July 27 high at 166.33.

    On the flip side, the GBP/JPY first support will be the 162.00 mark. Once cleared, the next support will be the figure at 161.00, ahead of the August 16 low at 160.08.

    GBP/JPY Daily chart

    GBP/JPY Key Technical Levels

     

17 sierpnia 2022
Najważniejsze wiadomości
KWOTOWANIA
Instrument Oferta Zamówienie Czas
AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
XAGEUR
XAGUSD
XAUUSD

Treść powyższych analiz jest tylko i wyłącznie wyrazem osobistych poglądów jej autora i nie stanowi rekomendacji w rozumieniu przepisów Rozporządzenia Ministra Finansów z dnia 19 października 2005 r. w sprawie informacji stanowiących rekomendacje dotyczące instrumentów finansowych lub ich emitentów. (Dz. U. z 2005 r. Nr 206, poz. 1715). Analiza nie spełnia wymogów stawianych rekomendacjom w rozumieniu w/w ustawy. Przeczytaj nasze pełne oświadczenie.

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Treść powyższych analiz jest tylko i wyłącznie wyrazem osobistych poglądów jej autora i nie stanowi rekomendacji w rozumieniu przepisów Rozporządzenia Ministra Finansów z dnia 19 października 2005 r. w sprawie informacji stanowiących rekomendacje dotyczące instrumentów finansowych lub ich emitentów. (Dz. U. z 2005 r. Nr 206, poz. 1715). Analiza nie spełnia wymogów stawianych rekomendacjom w rozumieniu w/w ustawy. Przeczytaj nasze pełne oświadczenie.

Kontrakty CFD są złożonymi instrumentami i wiążą się z dużym ryzykiem szybkiej utraty środków pieniężnych z powodu dźwigni finansowej. 76.41% rachunków inwestorów detalicznych odnotowuje straty w wyniku handlu kontraktami CFD u niniejszego dostawcy. Zastanów się, czy rozumiesz, jak działają kontrakty CFD, i czy możesz pozwolić sobie na wysokie ryzyko utraty pieniędzy.
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