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Market news

22 października 2019
  • 18:01

    European stocks closed: FTSE 100 7,212.49 +48.85 +0.68% DAX 12,754.69 +6.73 +0.05% CAC 40 5,657.69 +9.34 +0.17%

  • 17:04

    U.S. recession risk still firming – Westpac

    Richard Franulovich, the head of FX strategy at Westpac, suggests that a few key markets have been trending in a more constructive direction lately, signaling less concern about growth risks with the U.S. bond curve has been steepening, Eurozone financials have been outperforming and the USD has eased.

    • “Markets had been signaling that global growth is faltering and policy is too tight for a while, so the trend shift recently is notable. The signal is far from uniform across markets however; breakeven yields suggest disinflation risks is still high, while copper and the ADXY have at best merely stabilized in recent weeks.
    • A simple US recession probability model confirms that it’s far too soon to sound the all clear.”

  • 16:48

    BoC's Business Outlook Survey reveals a slight improvement in business sentiment

    BoC released its autumn Business Outlook Survey, which indicates that business sentiment improved slightly, but regional differences are more pronounced. 

    • Indicators of future sales suggest moderate sales growth ahead. Sales expectations are positive in most regions, notably in Quebec, but are soft in the Prairies. Foreign demand continues to support export sales prospects, though they are being weighed down by trade tensions.
    • Investment and hiring plans are healthy, mainly outside the energy-producing regions.
    • The share of firms reporting pressures on production capacity and the share reporting labour shortages are at somewhat elevated levels. These firms are concentrated in Central Canada and British Columbia.
    • Input price growth is expected to soften modestly due to less pressure from various commodity-related inputs. Nevertheless, firms anticipate output prices will grow at a slightly greater rate than over the past 12 months. As in recent surveys, a majority of businesses expect inflation to be in the lower half of the Bank of Canada’s inflation-control range.
    • Firms reported a marginal easing in credit conditions over the past three months.
    • Although below the high levels reached in 2017 and 2018, the Business Outlook Survey indicator moved up, signalling a slight improvement in overall business sentiment.

  • 16:14

    U.S. existing-home sales decrease more than forecast in September

    U.S. existing-home sales decrease more than forecast in September

    The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Tuesday that the U.S. existing home sales fell 2.2 percent m-o-m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.38 million in September from a revised 5.50 million in August (originally 5.49 million).

    Economists had forecast home resales decreasing to a 5.45 million-unit pace last month.

    In y-o-y terms, existing-home sales rose 3.9 percent in September.

    According to the report, single-family home sales stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.78 million in September, down from 4.91 million in August, but up 3.9 percent from a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $275,100 in September, up 6.1 percent from September 2018. Meanwhile, existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 600,000 units in September, 1.7 percent above the previous month and 3.4 percent higher than a year ago. The median existing condo price was $248,600 in September, up 4.5 percent from a year ago.

    The NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun noted that despite historically low mortgage rates, sales have not commensurately increased, in part due to a low level of new housing options. “We must continue to beat the drum for more inventory,” said Yun, who has called for additional home construction for over a year. “Home prices are rising too rapidly because of the housing shortage, and this lack of inventory is preventing home sales growth potential.”

  • 16:01

    U.S.: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, October 8 (forecast -14)

  • 16:00

    U.S.: Existing Home Sales , September 5.38 (forecast 5.45)

  • 15:50

    Fed: Repo control – Rabobank

    Rabobank analysts suggest that a standing repo facility from the U.S. Fed would be an effective tool that could cut off spikes in repo rates, provide information on the appropriate level of reserves to prevent spikes in repo rates, and reduce the demand for reserves.

    • “Last week the Fed started purchasing US treasury bills in order to raise the level of reserves in the financial system. While this may stabilize the repo markets in the medium term, the September turmoil has shown that the Fed lacks the appropriate tools to maintain stability in the repo market without interruption.
    • Ironically, the Fed needed an episode of repo turmoil to learn that reserves had fallen too much and to get a better estimate of how much is needed to get back to an ample reserves regime. If the Fed does not develop better tools to control the repo markets, it is only a matter of time before we get another episode of extreme repo rate spikes.”

  • 15:34

    U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.07%, Nasdaq +0.35%, S&P +0.18%

  • 15:27

    AUD/NZD: Further losses? – Westpac

    Sean Callow, an analyst at Westpac, believes that the RBNZ’s shock 50bp rate cut on 7 August ignited a steep AUD/NZD rally, from the 1.03 handle to 10-month highs above 1.08 in late September.

    • “AUD/NZD has consolidated in a 1.0650-1.0800 range and near term risks seem tilted modestly lower. While Australia’s broad commodity export basket has recovered some of its steep decline in July-August, iron ore has lost momentum this month and the demand outlook suggest further losses. Meanwhileб we have raised our forecast for NZ dairy prices.
    • Market pricing for further cash rate cuts has been trimmed for both the RBA and RBNZ, partly in line with global yields as US-China trade tensions have eased but also on local data and the tone of central bank officials.
    • The RBNZ has more easing priced in than does the RBA, so based on our forecasts of one more cut each, AU-NZ rate spreads could fall slightly. This suggests the cross spends plenty of time under 1.0700 into month-end.
    • But that would be an opportunity to buy, for a multi-month move to 1.1000, backed by fair value estimates holding well above 1.1000. On our calculations, AUD/NZD has been undervalued to some degree since 2016 but the gap has narrowed over 2019.”

  • 15:25

    Before the bell: S&P futures +0.12%, NASDAQ futures +0.30%

    Before the bell: S&P futures +0.12%, NASDAQ futures +0.30%

    U.S. stock-index futures rose moderately on Tuesday as investors assessed a slew of earnings reports from companies. 


    Global Stocks:

    Index/commodity

    Last

    Today's Change, points

    Today's Change, %

    Nikkei

    22,548.90

    +56.22

    +0.25%

    Hang Seng

    26,786.20

    +60.52

    +0.23%

    Shanghai

    2,954.38

    +14.76

    +0.50%

    S&P/ASX

    6,672.20

    +19.70

    +0.30%

    FTSE

    7,210.34

    +46.70

    +0.65%

    CAC

    5,644.60

    -3.75

    -0.07%

    DAX

    12,752.77

    +4.81

    +0.04%

    Crude oil

    $53.91


    +0.75%

    Gold

    $1,489.90


    +0.12%

  • 15:01

    UK PM Johnson: Need to EU with our new Brexit deal on October 31

    • If this house [House of Commons] backs the legislation, we can get Brexit done
  • 14:55

    Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

    (company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


    ALCOA INC.

    AA

    20.64

    0.17(0.83%)

    973

    ALTRIA GROUP INC.

    MO

    45.62

    0.06(0.13%)

    10789

    Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

    AMZN

    1,786.00

    0.34(0.02%)

    15053

    American Express Co

    AXP

    119.01

    -0.04(-0.03%)

    1442

    AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

    AIG

    54.18

    -0.37(-0.68%)

    1101

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL

    241.24

    0.73(0.30%)

    176424

    AT&T Inc

    T

    38.28

    0.05(0.13%)

    9891

    Boeing Co

    BA

    335.01

    3.95(1.19%)

    53942

    Caterpillar Inc

    CAT

    132.38

    0.15(0.11%)

    5604

    Cisco Systems Inc

    CSCO

    47.42

    0.03(0.06%)

    5661

    Citigroup Inc., NYSE

    C

    71.91

    0.10(0.14%)

    5519

    Exxon Mobil Corp

    XOM

    68.93

    0.19(0.28%)

    2113

    Facebook, Inc.

    FB

    189.65

    -0.11(-0.06%)

    27287

    FedEx Corporation, NYSE

    FDX

    151.3

    -0.74(-0.49%)

    1891

    Ford Motor Co.

    F

    9.04

    0.01(0.11%)

    16469

    General Electric Co

    GE

    8.77

    -0.02(-0.23%)

    77198

    General Motors Company, NYSE

    GM

    35.76

    -0.17(-0.47%)

    550

    Goldman Sachs

    GS

    209.49

    0.24(0.11%)

    389

    Google Inc.

    GOOG

    1,248.00

    1.85(0.15%)

    1181

    Hewlett-Packard Co.

    HPQ

    16.92

    -0.08(-0.47%)

    3112

    HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

    HON

    169.95

    1.01(0.60%)

    1180

    Intel Corp

    INTC

    52.24

    0.11(0.21%)

    7930

    International Business Machines Co...

    IBM

    132.7

    0.12(0.09%)

    3160

    Johnson & Johnson

    JNJ

    128.28

    0.26(0.20%)

    1795

    JPMorgan Chase and Co

    JPM

    123.61

    0.06(0.05%)

    2998

    McDonald's Corp

    MCD

    203.8

    -6.05(-2.88%)

    272744

    Merck & Co Inc

    MRK

    82.2

    -2.32(-2.74%)

    71940

    Microsoft Corp

    MSFT

    138.86

    0.43(0.31%)

    93508

    Nike

    NKE

    96.6

    0.38(0.39%)

    157

    Pfizer Inc

    PFE

    36.47

    0.01(0.03%)

    3536

    Procter & Gamble Co

    PG

    124.5

    5.42(4.55%)

    232386

    Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

    SBUX

    85.08

    -0.27(-0.32%)

    2050

    Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

    TSLA

    255.18

    1.68(0.66%)

    20676

    The Coca-Cola Co

    KO

    54.1

    -0.13(-0.24%)

    2779

    Travelers Companies Inc

    TRV

    137

    -4.91(-3.46%)

    3665

    Twitter, Inc., NYSE

    TWTR

    40.5

    0.41(1.02%)

    91924

    United Technologies Corp

    UTX

    141.2

    2.85(2.06%)

    46760

    Verizon Communications Inc

    VZ

    60.9

    0.15(0.25%)

    6394

    Visa

    V

    176.72

    0.29(0.16%)

    4294

    Wal-Mart Stores Inc

    WMT

    119.9

    0.16(0.13%)

    4677

    Walt Disney Co

    DIS

    130.4

    0.14(0.11%)

    7467

    Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

    YNDX

    32.65

    -0.11(-0.34%)

    215338

  • 14:52

    Upgrades before the market open

    Bank of America (BAC) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities

  • 14:46

    Canada’s retail sales down 0.1 percent in August

    Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday that the Canadian retail sales edged down 0.1 percent m-o-m at CAD51.54 billion in August, following a revised 0.5 percent m-o-m climb in July (originally a 0.4 percent m-o-m advance).

    The result was below economists’ forecast, suggesting a 0.4 percent m-o-m gain for August.

    According to the report, sales reduced in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 51 percent of retail trade.

    The August m-o-m decrease was mainly due to lower sales at food and beverage stores (-0.8 percent m-o-m), gasoline stations (-0.4 percent m-o-m) and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-0.5 percent m-o-m). Meanwhile, sales at both general merchandise stores (+0.8 percent m-o-m) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (+0.1 percent m-o-m) were up in August.

    Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales fell 0.2 percent m-o-m in August compared to an unrevised 0.1 percent m-o-m decline in July and economists’ forecast of 0.1 percent m-o-m advance. Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations, retail sales dropped 0.1 percent m-o-m in August.

    In y-o-y terms, Canadian retail sales jumped 1.1 percent in August, decelerating from 1.2 percent in July.

  • 14:30

    Canada: Retail Sales YoY, August 1.1%

  • 14:30

    Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, August -0.1% (forecast 0.4%)

  • 14:30

    Canada: Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m, August -0.2% (forecast 0.1%)

  • 14:23

    UK PM's spokesman: Voting down the programme motion risks handing control back to EU

    • Voting down programme motion would have serious implications
    • It would mean legislation will drift on and on
    • That is not in the UK or EU's interest
    • There is no guarantee of the EU granting an extension

  • 14:09

    Company News: McDonald's (MCD) quarterly earnings miss analysts’ expectations

    McDonald's (MCD) reported Q3 FY 2019 earnings of $2.11 per share (versus $2.10 in Q3 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.21.

    The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $5.431 bln (+1.1% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.473 bln.

    MCD fell to $202.75 (-3.38%) in pre-market trading.

  • 14:01

    Company News: Travelers (TRV) quarterly earnings miss analysts’ estimate

    Travelers (TRV) reported Q3 FY 2019 earnings of $1.43 per share (versus $2.54 in Q3 FY 2018), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.35.

    The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to 7.569 bln (+7.2% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $7.169 bln.

    TRV fell to $138.75 (-2.23%) in pre-market trading.

  • 13:58

    U.S. existing home sales in focus – Rabobank

    Rabobank's analysts say the U.S. existing home sales will be scrutinized for any warning signals that perhaps buyers have turned more cautious.

    • “With the Fed cutting rates, lower mortgage rates should support demand. That said, demand could be restrained by rising economic uncertainty caused by the ongoing trade war.
    • Also, if a house buyer has a particularly strong conviction that the Fed is likely to lower interest rates further, he/she may postpone the house purchase to benefit from even lower mortgage rates. The consensus expectation is for a modest 0.7% m/m fall to 5.45mn in September following two months of strong prints.”

  • 13:54

    Company News: United Tech (UTX) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ forecast

    United Tech (UTX) reported Q3 FY 2019 earnings of $2.21 per share (versus $1.93 in Q3 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.03.

    The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $19.496 bln (+18.1% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $19.305 bln.

    The company also issued mixed guidance for FY1 209, increasing EPS of $8.05-8.15 from $7.90-8.05 (versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $8.03) and projecting revenue of $76.0-$76.5 bln from $75.5-77.0 bln (versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $76.97 bln).

    UTX rose to $141.74 (+2.45%) in pre-market trading.

  • 13:40

    Company News: Procter & Gamble (PG) quarterly results beat analysts’ expectations

    Procter & Gamble (PG) reported Q1 FY 2020 earnings of $1.37 per share (versus $1.12 in Q1 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.24.

    The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $17.798 bln (+6.6% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $17.429 bln.

    The company raised FY 2020 revenue guidance to +3-5% y/y to ~$69.71-71.07 bln from +3-4% y/y versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $70.05 bln. It also raised its FY 2020 guidance for core earnings per share growth to +5-10% y/y from +4-9% y/y.

    PG rose to $124.59 (+4.63%) in pre-market trading.

  • 13:37

    Australia's CPI likely to print 0.5% in Q3 – ANZ

    Analysts at ANZ are forecasting the Australia’s headline inflation to print 0.5% QoQ in Q3, with the annual rate remaining at 1.6%.

    • “The largest contributor to the headline figure was holiday travel and accommodation. Petrol prices are expected to detract from inflation this quarter, after rising sharply in the previous quarter.
    • Trimmed mean inflation, the underlying measure of inflation focused on by the RBA, is expected to come in at 0.4% q/q. This would see the annual rate stay at 1.6%. We see the risks to trimmed mean inflation for the quarter as skewed to the downside slightly.
    • Our forecast for trimmed mean inflation is in line with what the RBA published in its August SoMP. A number in line with this won’t put any pressure on the RBA to act sooner than we currently expect.
    • At this point, trimmed mean inflation would need to considerably disappoint for us to think the RBA will cut again in 2019. If the RBA eases in November, it is likely to be the result of a combination of the Fed easing in October and another weak month of retail’s sales suggesting that the tax cuts are not being spent rather than soft inflation.”

  • 13:19

    Canada's retail sales likely to post gain of 0.6% for August – TDS

    Analysts at TD Securities are expecting Canada’s retail sales to rise by 0.6% in August (market: 0.5%) on further strength in motor vehicle sales, which were also the primary driver behind a 0.4% increase last month.

    • "Ex-auto sales should see a muted 0.1% gain, with gasoline prices exerting a modest headwind, while volumes should outperform the nominal print on lower consumer goods prices.
    • At 10:30 we will get the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey which will serve as the final communication before the blackout period for the October 30th meeting begins at midnight. We do not expect the report to make a strong case for 2019 rate cuts, but would note that the survey period concluded in mid-September before the most recent US/China trade talks which should limit any positive implications for investment intentions.”

  • 13:00

    Eurozone's credit standards ease - ING

    Bert Colijn, a senior Eurozone economist at ING, notes that Eurozone's bank lending standards eased again slightly in the third quarter. 

    • "On average, it became slightly easier to borrow for non-financial corporates and home buyers, which should provide some relief for the investment outlook that has taken a hit because of falling new orders and weakening confidence.
    • The favourable standards for approving new loans was balanced somewhat by the tightening in credit conditions, meaning that especially riskier loans have seen spreads increase. That has not deterred banks from taking on loans, though demand for lending was roughly unchanged in the third quarter according to the survey.
    • For the fourth quarter, banks are not expecting meaningful changes to their own standards and conditions and also not to demand for lending. On top of that, banks indicate that the asset purchase programme (APP) has continued to have a positive impact on market financing conditions and liquidity positions over the past six months, despite the end to net purchases.
    • The restart of the programme can be expected to increase these positive contributions, although side effects continue to be reported by the banking sector, mainly around profitability concerns. Still, the ECB will likely take this on board as a confirmation that APP will support loose financial conditions as concerns about the effectiveness of the programme become broader."

  • 12:53

    UK manufacturers’ order book balance declines further in October

    The latest survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) showed on Tuesday the UK manufacturers’ order books fell in October to the lowest level since March 2010.

    According to the report, the CBI's monthly factory order book balance decreased to -37 in October from -28 in the previous month. Economists had expected the reading to stay at -28.

    According to the report, export order book gauge dropped to -41 from -32 in September, while the index of stocks of finished goods declined to +11 from +28 and the measure of the manufacturers’ output expectations in the next three months remained subdued at -16 compared to -19 in September.

    The survey also revealed that the share of manufacturers citing political/economic conditions abroad as a factor to limit export orders in the next three months was at a survey record high (66%).

  • 12:22

    U.S. manufacturing and housing data in focus – TDS

    Analysts at TD Securities say that the market is expecting the Richmond manufacturing index of the U.S. to improve marginally in October to -7 following the sharp 10pt decline to -9 in September (10 am ET).

    • “This would largely mimic the improvement in the NY Empire survey, but stand in contrast with the decline in the Philly Fed index.
    • Separately, the consensus is looking for a modest -0.7% m/m retreat in existing home sales for September, following the nice 1.3% jump in the month before. All in, existing home sales are tracking a notable recovery so far in 2019.”

  • 12:00

    United Kingdom: CBI industrial order books balance, October -37 (forecast -28)

  • 11:58

    China will keep door open to foreign investment, global industry despite trade tensions

    China will take steps to safeguard its interests, but won't close its door to foreign investment and the global industry despite trade frictions with the United States, a Chinese official said on Tuesday.

    Earlier this month, before key Sino-U.S. trade talks, Washington decided to widen its so-called "entities list" to include some top Chinese artificial intelligence startups such as Megvii Technology and SenseTime Group.

    Firms on the U.S. "entity list" are barred from buying U.S. parts and components without U.S. government approval due to national security concerns.

    "We will look at the trade friction between China and the United States with an open mind and a big heart," said Huang Libin, a spokesman for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), although China will also closely monitor the U.S. entities list.

    China will further open sectors including telecommunications, internet and autos to foreign investment, but at the same time, the United States should respect trade rules and act with caution, Huang said.

    "We will not blindly emphasise 'self-developed and controllable', and will not decouple from the development of international industries," Huang told reporters at a briefing.

  • 11:39

    German budget surplus at 1.7% of GDP in second-quarter - Eurostat

    Germany's seasonally adjusted budget surplus was 1.7% of the country's GDP in the second quarter, down from 2.0% in the previous three months, data from the European Union's statistics office Eurostat showed.

    Germany has been running large budget surpluses for years and is now under pressure from other euro zone countries, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to spend more on long-overdue investment to help prevent an economic slowdown in the euro zone's biggest economy.

    Unadjusted for seasonal swings, the budget surplus was even higher at 3.2% of GDP, in the second quarter, up from 2.2% in the first three months.

  • 11:20

    USD/JPY continues to consolidate – Commerzbank

    Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that USD/JPY continues to consolidate below the 200 day ma at 109.06 and they would allow for this to hold the initial test.

    “The up move has lost some steam and further consolidation is likely. Beyond this the market remains well placed to try the topside once more. Above the market lie the 55 and 200 week moving averages at 109.75/110.12 and the 2015-2019 downtrend at 110.98. Dips will find initial support at the 20 day ma at 107.96 ahead of the 106.48 October low. Failure at 106.47 will target 106.00, then 105.32/78.6% retracement which is the last defence for the 104.46 August low.”

  • 11:00

    Australia: Q3 CPI likely to increase by 0.6% – Westpac

    Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, suggests that Australia’s September quarter CPI is likely to rise 0.6%, lifting the annual pace to 1.8%yr from 1.6%yr.

    “The September quarter tends to be a seasonally strong quarter with the ABS projecting a seasonal factor of –0.1ppt. The seasonally adjusted CPI is forecast to rise 0.5%. The trimmed mean is forecast to rise 0.32%qtr/1.5%yr and the weighted median is forecast to rise 0.27%qtr/1.2%yr. The average of the core inflation measures is forecast to print 0.29%qtr with the annual pace easing back to 1.3%yr from 1.4%yr. Boosting the CPI in the September quarter is food (drought offsetting normal seasonal softness), alcohol & tobacco (mostly the annual re-indexing of the tobacco excise) and holiday travel & accommodation (with domestic lifting 6% and international rising 3% in the quarter). Core inflation remains well below the bottom of the RBA target band as moderating housing costs offset modest inflationary pressure elsewhere. Competitive disinflationary pressure in consumer goods is limiting the pass through of the weaker AUD though it is having some impact. Given this we find it hard to envisage core inflation breaking higher any time soon let alone returning to the mid-point of the 2%yr to 3%yr target band.”

  • 10:46

    UK public sector net borrowing rose in September

    According to the report from Office for National Statistics, borrowing (public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks) in September 2019 was £9.4 billion, £0.6 billion more than in September 2018; this is the first September year-on-year borrowing increase for five years.

    Borrowing in the current financial year-to-date (April 2019 to September 2019) was £40.3 billion, £7.2 billion more than in the same period last year; this is the first April-to-September borrowing increase for five years.

    Debt (public sector net debt excluding public sector banks) at the end of September 2019 was £1,790.9 billion (or 80.3% of gross domestic product (GDP)), an increase of £27.3 billion, or a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, on September 2018.

    Debt at the end of September 2019 excluding the Bank of England (mainly quantitative easing) was £1,611.1 billion or 72.2% of GDP; this is an increase of £38.6 billion, or a decrease of 0.5 percentage points on September 2018.

  • 10:30

    United Kingdom: PSNB, bln, September -8.73 (forecast -8.80)

  • 10:15

    China: Downward trend for economic growth – Standard Chartered

    Analysts at Standard Chartered note that China’s economic growth is on a downward trend, having slowed steadily to 6.6% in 2018 from a peak of 14.2% in 2007.

    “While the slowdown is a nationwide phenomenon, growth in the south has outpaced that in the north in recent years; and within the southern region, new engines of growth are emerging and surpassing the country’s traditional growth-driving regions. The growth potential of the south-central region remains large, in our view. In 2018, its per-capita GDP was the lowest in the country and its urbanisation rate was 4.8ppt below the nationwide level. Its growth has surpassed the national rate since 2001 and the rest of the southern region since 2008, averaging 10.8% over the past decade. Meanwhile, increasing numbers of industrial companies may have relocated to the region in recent years to take advantage of lower wages and housing prices. The central government has adopted a coordinated regional development strategy to boost infrastructure investment and improve the business environment in less developed areas.”

  • 09:59

    Yuan set to stay above 7 even if the US and China hammer out a trade deal - Nomura expert

    The yuan will continue trading above 7-per-dollar even if the United States and China manage to ink a partial deal, expert say.

    The Chinese currency, also known as the renminbi, has eased in recent months as trade tensions between Washington and Beijing intensified.

    “The yuan will be stuck in a narrow range until we know for certain that Phase 1 of the trade deal is signed,” Stuart Oakley, global head of flow foreign exchange at Nomura, told CNBC.

    “I’d estimate that range to be 0.50% either side of 7.0750 up until 16th Nov — with a slight bias to the downside,” he said, referring to next month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting which will be attended by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The currency pair will likely head toward 7.00 if the two sides are able to sign an agreement in Chile, he added.

    For the Chinese currency to strengthen to a level below 7-yuan-per-dollar again, the market will need to see signs that “the elimination of existing tariffs is being seriously discussed,” according to Oakley.

  • 09:41

    New Zealand: Broad-based slowdown – ANZ

    ANZ analysts explain that in what’s been a broad-based slowdown for the New Zealand economy, the pace of headline GDP growth has almost halved from around 4% y/y in 2016 to 2.1% in June 2019.

    “The leading indicators are all suggesting there’s more slowing to come in the near term. We expect annual GDP growth will feature a 1-handle in the first half of 2020, but are hopeful that accommodative monetary conditions, still-elevated (but easing) net migration inflows, and a buoyant household sector will put a floor under things. However, sub-par growth is inconsistent with intensifying inflation pressures over the medium term, which – alongside inflation expectations threatening to slip – will see the RBNZ cut the OCR further. We’re expecting a 25bp cut in November, and two follow-up cuts in February and May next year to take the OCR to just 0.25%. But the RBNZ won’t be the only central bank cutting interest rates over the year ahead. Growth among our trading partners has also been slipping. And with domestic and global risks skewed to the downside at a time when monetary policy running into conventional limits, there are increasing calls for the Government to up the fiscal-stimulus ante.”

  • 09:19

    Long-term negative rates have ‘adverse consequences’ we don’t fully understand - Jamie Dimon

    Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of U.S. banking giant J.P. Morgan Chase, told CNBC that lowering interest rates is not a game-changer in driving up borrowing and lifting economic growth.

    “I think when they did it earlier on, there was a notion that we are saving the European Union, the monetary union, which is one thing. I think as a permanent part of policy, it is a really bad idea. It has adverse consequences which we do not fully understand,” he said on Monday.

    Dimon joins the ranks of an increasing number of business executives and economists speaking up against adopting such a policy for long, as central banks around the world try to boost growth by continuing to slash interest rates, some into negative territory.

    “If you want to have growth you better really think through with the policies, not just on negative rates but capital allocation et cetera,” he added. “So, I hope it doesn’t happen in United States.”

    The European Central Bank last month pushed rates deeper into negative territory, while the Bank of Japan appeared to be laying the groundwork for a similar move.

    Dimon, however, said the level of interest rates is not what he’s most worried about now. Instead, plummeting business confidence - caused by the U.S.-China trade war and other geopolitical events - appears to be a bigger risk, he added.

  • 08:59

    UK Politics amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

    Danske Bank analysts suggest that it is a very quiet day on the data release front and the Brexit will continue to catch the limelight with the Boris Johnson government trying to push through his Brexit law in the House of Commons in only three days.

    “The big moment is around 18:00 GMT when the MPs vote on the general principle of the bill followed by a vote on the timetable for the rest of the bill. The bill is expected to survive the former but may lose the latter, which would make it very difficult for Johnson to leave the EU by 31 October. We still need to monitor whether there may be support for tweaking the bill in such a way that there is no longer support for passing the overall bill. In particular focus is on (1) a confirmatory referendum and (2) a permanent customs union.”

  • 08:40

    BoE reform needed to boost firepower for downturns - think tank

    The Bank of England should be given more power to steer lending in Britain’s economy and influence government spending during a downturn, a think tank said.

    After more than a decade of low interest rates since the global financial crisis, central bankers across advanced economies are concerned that they’re less able to boost the economy when the next recession comes.

    Positive Money, a think tank whose work has been endorsed by the opposition Labour Party and others in recent years, said closer coordination was needed between the BoE and the government, with the efficacy of quantitative-easing in doubt.

    Last week, Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, cast doubt on the effectiveness of government bond purchases in future, and suggested the BoE could buy private-sector assets that were under stress.

    Positive Money said the BoE and government should create a new credit policy unit so the BoE can influence lending, and the central bank should also be able to outline its expectations for the government’s fiscal policy.

  • 08:21

    EUR/USD looks consolidative very near term – UOB

    FX Strategists at UOB Group remain constructive on EUR/USD, although some consolidation is likely in the next sessions.

    24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday “the rally is deep in overbought territory and further sustained gain is not likely”. We added, “EUR is more likely to consolidate and trade sideways within a 1.1130/1.1180 range”. EUR subsequently traded between 1.1135 and 1.1179, relatively close to our expected sideway-trading range. The current movement is still viewed as part of a consolidation phase even though the slightly weakened underlying tone suggests a lower trading range of 1.1120/1.1170”.

    Next 1-3 weeks: “We maintain our positive outlook for EUR and highlighted last Friday (18 Oct, spot at 1.1120) that “the focus is firmly at the 1.1165 resistance now”. EUR subsequently rose to 1.1172 before ending the day (and the week) on a strong note (NY close of 1.1169, +0.42%). The current EUR rally still appears ‘healthy’ and a move above 1.1200 would not be surprising but 1.1250 is a much stronger resistance and may not yield as easily. On the downside, only a break of 1.1070 (‘strong support’ level slightly higher than 1.1050 previously) would indicate that the current positive phase in EUR that started more than a week ago (see annotations in chart below) has run its course”.

  • 08:00

    Chinese vice foreign minister says progress made in trade talks with U.S

    China and the United States have achieved some progress in their trade talks, Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said on Tuesday, and any problem could be resolved as long as both sides respected each other.

    No country can prosper without working with other nations, Le said at the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing.

    The world wants China and the United States to end their trade war, he said. That required openness rather than a "de-coupling" of countries or a new Cold War.

    "As long as we respect each other and seek equal cooperation, there are no disagreements that cannot be resolved between China and the United States," Le said.

    "What China wants is to deliver a better life for the Chinese people. We don’t want to take anything from anyone else. There's no such thing as China replacing anyone or threatening anyone," he said.

    China and the United States have accomplished much through cooperation over the years, Le said. "Why would we toss away the achievements of such cooperation?"

    However, Le also warned that China would never trade away its core interests or allow other countries to undermine its security.

  • 07:36

    Options levels on tuesday, October 22, 2019

    EUR/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.1253 (3199)

    $1.1229 (2943)

    $1.1195 (2236)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.1155

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.1109 (1736)

    $1.1076 (2378)

    $1.1037 (2559)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 8 is 72524 contracts (according to data from October, 21) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0900 (3979);


    GBP/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.3159 (2974)

    $1.3113 (2756)

    $1.3079 (1956)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.2985

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.2834 (113)

    $1.2780 (222)

    $1.2748 (139)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 8 is 33708 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3714);

    - Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 8 is 27019 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2100 (3178);

    - The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.80 versus 0.80 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 21

     

    * - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

    ** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

  • 04:30

    Commodities. Daily history for Monday, October 21, 2019

    Raw materials Closed Change, %
    Brent 58.74 -0.19
    WTI 53.54 -0.11
    Silver 17.54 0
    Gold 1483.963 -0.52
    Palladium 1758.84 0.29
  • 02:30

    Stocks. Daily history for Monday, October 21, 2019

    Index Change, points Closed Change, %
    NIKKEI 225 56.22 22548.9 0.25
    Hang Seng 6.1 26725.68 0.02
    KOSPI 4.15 2064.84 0.2
    ASX 200 2.8 6652.5 0.04
    FTSE 100 13.07 7163.64 0.18
    DAX 114.36 12747.96 0.91
    Dow Jones 57.44 26827.64 0.21
    S&P 500 20.52 3006.72 0.69
    NASDAQ Composite 73.45 8162.99 0.91
  • 02:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Monday, October 21, 2019

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.68642 0.23
    EURJPY 121.04 0.07
    EURUSD 1.11486 -0.07
    GBPJPY 140.712 0.44
    GBPUSD 1.29597 0.3
    NZDUSD 0.64016 0.4
    USDCAD 1.30897 -0.3
    USDCHF 0.98584 0.14
    USDJPY 108.567 0.15
  • 00:30

    Schedule for today, Tuesday, October 22, 2019

    Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
    08:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln September -5.77 -6.60
    10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance October -28 -23
    12:30 Canada Retail Sales YoY August 1.2%  
    12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m August 0.4% 0.4%
    12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m August -0.1% 0.1%
    14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index October -9 -14
    14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales September 5.49 5.45
    14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey    
    17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak    
    21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln September -1565 -1112
    22:20 Australia RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks    
22 października 2019
Najważniejsze wiadomości
  • White House economic adviser Kudlow: U.S. and China "very close" on opening of financial markets
  • Chinese vice foreign minister says progress made in trade talks with U.S
  • BoE reform needed to boost firepower for downturns - think tank
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
KWOTOWANIA
Instrument Oferta Zamówienie Czas
EURUSD
GBPUSD
XAUUSD
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDJPY
XAGUSD
XAGEUR

Treść powyższych analiz jest tylko i wyłącznie wyrazem osobistych poglądów jej autora i nie stanowi rekomendacji w rozumieniu przepisów Rozporządzenia Ministra Finansów z dnia 19 października 2005 r. w sprawie informacji stanowiących rekomendacje dotyczące instrumentów finansowych lub ich emitentów. (Dz. U. z 2005 r. Nr 206, poz. 1715). Analiza nie spełnia wymogów stawianych rekomendacjom w rozumieniu w/w ustawy. Przeczytaj nasze pełne oświadczenie.

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