Market news

22 stycznia 2021
  • 21:29

    Key events for next week: UK unemployment rate, US consumer confidence indicator, Australian consumer price index, Fed interest rate decision on the, US and Canadian GDP, Chinese PMI indices

    On Monday, at 09:00 GMT, Germany will release the IFO Business Environment indicator, the IFO assessment of the current situation indicator and the IFO Economic Expectations indicator for January. At 14:00 GMT, Belgium will publish the business sentiment index for January. At 16:00 GMT, ECB President Lagarde will give a speech. At 23:50 GMT in Japan, the minutes of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting will be presented.

    On Tuesday, at 07:00 GMT, Britain will report changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits for December, as well as the unemployment rate and average earnings for November. At 11:00 GMT, in the UK, CBI retail sales volume balance for January will be released. At 14:00 GMT, the US will announce the change in the S&P/Case-Shiller housing price index for November. At 15:00 GMT, the US will publish the consumer confidence indicator and the Fed-Richmond manufacturing index for January. At 23:30 GMT, Australia will release the leading economic indicators for December.

    On Wednesday, at 00:30 GMT, Australia will present the consumer price index for the 4th quarter and the NAB business confidence index for December. At 07:00 GMT, Germany will release the Gfk Consumer Climate index for February. Also at 07:00 GMT, Britain will publish the Nationwide house price index for January. At 09:00 GMT, Switzerland will present the index of expectations of Swiss investors, according to data from ZEW and Credit Suisse for January. At 13:30 GMT, the US will announce a change in the durable goods for December, and at 15:30 GMT - a change in oil reserves according to the Ministry of Energy. At 19:00 GMT in the US, the FOMC interest rate decision will be announced. At 19:30 GMT the FOMC press conference will be held. At 21:45 GMT, New Zealand will announce a change in the foreign trade balance for December. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will report the change in retail trade volume for December.

    On Thursday, at 00:30 GMT, Australia will release the import price index for the 4th quarter. At 07:00 GMT, Switzerland will announce a change in the foreign trade balance for December. At 10:00 GMT, the euro zone will present the index of business optimism in industry, the index of sentiment in the economy and the index of consumer confidence for January. At 13:30 GMT, Canada will report on the change in the construction permits for December. Also at 13: 30 GMT, the US will announce changes in the volume of GDP for the 4th quarter, the balance of foreign trade in goods for December and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. At 15:00 GMT, the US will announce the change in sales of new buildings for December and will release an index of leading indicators for December. At 23:30 GMT, Japan will release the Tokyo consumer price index for January and report the change in the unemployment rate for December. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will announce a change in industrial production for December.

    On Friday, at 00:30 GMT, Australia will release the producer price index for the 4th quarter and report on the change in the volume of lending to the private sector for December. At 05:00 GMT, Japan will publish a consumer confidence indicator for January and announce a change in the volume of new foundations laid for December. At 06:30 GMT, France will report the change in GDP for the 4th quarter. At 07:00 GMT, Germany will announce the change in retail trade volume for December. At 07:45 GMT, France will announce a change in consumer spending for December. At 08:00 GMT, Switzerland will present the KOF index of leading economic indicators for January. At 08:55 GMT, Germany will report the change in the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed for January. At 09:00 GMT, the euro zone will announce the change in the M3 aggregate of the money supply and the volume of lending to the private sector for December. At 13:30 GMT, Canada will announce the change in GDP for November and release the producer price index for December. Also at 13:30 GMT, the US will report changes in personal income and expenses for December. At 14:45 GMT, in the US, the Chicago Purchasing Managers ' Index for January will be released. At 15: 00 GMT, the US will announce the change in pending home sales for December and will publish the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for January. At 18:00 GMT, in the US, the Baker Hughes report on the number of active oil drilling rigs will be released.

    On Sunday at 01:00 GMT, China will publish the PMI index for the manufacturing sector and the index of activity in the non-manufacturing sector for January. At 21:30 GMT, Australia will present the AiG manufacturing activity index for December.

  • 21:00

    DJIA -0.40% 31,052.09 -123.92 Nasdaq +0.15% 13,551.39 +20.47 S&P -0.11% 3,848.99 -4.08

  • 19:00

    U.S.: Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, January 289

  • 18:00

    European stocks closed: FTSE 100 6,695.07 -20.35 -0.30% DAX 13,873.97 -32.70 -0.24% CAC 40 5,559.57 -31.22 -0.56%

  • 17:09

    EIA’s report reveals a surprise climb in U.S. crude oil inventories

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Friday that crude inventories surged by 4.351 million barrels in the week ended January 15. Economists had forecast a drop of 1.167 million barrels.

    At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 0.260 million barrels, while analysts had expected an advance of 2.771 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 0.458 million barrels, while analysts had forecast an increase of 1.214 million barrels.

    Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. remained unchanged at 11.000 million barrels a day.

    U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.0 million barrels per day last week, down by 194,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

  • 17:00

    U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, January 4.351 (forecast -1.167)

  • 16:38

    U.S. Senate Finance Committee votes 26-0 to advance Yellen's nomination for Treasury secretary to full Senate vote

  • 16:35

    U.S. Senate majority leader Schumer says that impeachment resolution against former president Trump is to be delivered to Senate on Monday - CNBC

  • 16:32

    U.S. existing-home sales unexpectedly increase in December

    The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Friday that the U.S. existing home sales rose 0.7 percent m-o-m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.76 million in December from a revised 6.71 million in November (originally 6.69 million).

    Economists had forecast home resales decreasing to a 6.55 million-unit pace last month.

    In y-o-y terms, existing-home sales surged 22.5 percent in December

    According to the report, two of the four major regions recorded m-o-m gains in existing-home sales in December but all four regions rose at double-digit rates from one year ago. The median existing-home price for all housing types in December was $309,800, up 12.9 percent from December 2019. Single-family home sales stood at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.03 million in December, up 0.7 percent from 5.99 million in November, and up 22.8 percent from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $314,300 in December, up 13.5 percent from December 2019. Meanwhile, existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 730,000 units in December, up 1.4 percent from November and up 17.7 percent from one year ago. The median existing condo price was $272,200 in December, an advance of 6.9 percent from a year ago.

    Existing-home sales totaled 5.64 million in 2020, up 5.6 percent y-o-y. That was the highest level since 2006.

    "Home sales rose in December, and for 2020 as a whole, we saw sales perform at their highest levels since 2006, despite the pandemic," noted Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "What's even better is that this momentum is likely to carry into the new year, with more buyers expected to enter the market," he added.

  • 16:11

    U.S. private sector business activity expands sharply in January - IHS Markit's survey

    Preliminary data released by IHS Markit on Friday revealed that U.S. private sector business activity expanded strongly during January 2021.

    According to the report, the Markit flash manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 59.1 in January, up from 57.1 in December. This was the highest reading on record. Economists had expected the reading to drop to 56.5. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. Alongside stronger expansions in production and new exports orders, which where the highest since 2014, the headline figure was driven up by another substantial deterioration in vendor performance, the report said. In addition, the rate of job creation was the sharpest for two years and strong overall.

    The Markit flash services purchasing manager's index (PMI) rose to 57.5 in January from 54.8 in the previous month. The rate of expansion was the second-steepest since March 2015 and strong overall. Economists had expected the reading to decrease to 53.6. The rise in output was often linked to another monthly increase in customer demand.

    Overall, IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index came in at 58.0 in January, up from 55.3 in December, pointing a regain in growth momentum at the start of 2021, as the pace of increase quickened to the second-fastest since March 2015.

    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at HIS Markit noted: “US businesses reported a strong start to 2021, buoyed by hopes that vaccine developments will mean the worst of the pandemic is behind us, and that the new administration will provide a stable and supportive environment for stronger economic growth.”

  • 16:00

    U.S.: Existing Home Sales , December 6.76 (forecast 6.55)

  • 15:45

    U.S.: Services PMI, January 57.5 (forecast 53.6)

  • 15:45

    U.S.: Manufacturing PMI, January 59.1 (forecast 56.5)

  • 15:34

    U.S. Stocks open: Dow -0.55%, Nasdaq -0.49%, S&P -0.47%

  • 15:29

    Before the bell: S&P futures -0.62%, NASDAQ futures -0.56%

    U.S. stock-index futures fell on Friday, as investors digested PMI data, which indicated that economic activity around the world slowed notably in January due to recent COVID-triggered lockdowns, as well as quarterly earnings reports from Intel (INTC) and IBM (IBM).


    Global Stocks:

    Index/commodity

    Last

    Today's Change, points

    Today's Change, %

    Nikkei

    28,631.45

    -125.41

    -0.44%

    Hang Seng

    29,447.85

    -479.91

    -1.60%

    Shanghai

    3,606.75

    -14.51

    -0.40%

    S&P/ASX

    6,800.40

    -23.30

    -0.34%

    FTSE

    6,669.63

    -45.79

    -0.68%

    CAC

    5,534.48

    -56.31

    -1.01%

    DAX

    13,836.23

    -70.44

    -0.51%

    Crude oil

    $51.75


    -2.60%

    Gold

    $1,841.80


    -1.29%

  • 14:59

    Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

    (company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


    3M Co

    MMM

    169.93

    -0.74(-0.43%)

    2131

    ALCOA INC.

    AA

    19.44

    -0.57(-2.85%)

    171605

    ALTRIA GROUP INC.

    MO

    41.89

    -0.05(-0.12%)

    14652

    Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

    AMZN

    3,294.00

    -12.99(-0.39%)

    36689

    American Express Co

    AXP

    126

    -1.43(-1.12%)

    2977

    AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

    AIG

    40.54

    -0.51(-1.24%)

    4386

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL

    135.9

    -0.97(-0.71%)

    1410759

    AT&T Inc

    T

    28.75

    -0.08(-0.28%)

    156607

    Boeing Co

    BA

    205.62

    -1.79(-0.86%)

    108263

    Caterpillar Inc

    CAT

    190.25

    -1.94(-1.01%)

    5366

    Chevron Corp

    CVX

    90.6

    -1.41(-1.53%)

    59334

    Cisco Systems Inc

    CSCO

    44.84

    -0.27(-0.60%)

    31149

    Citigroup Inc., NYSE

    C

    61.2

    -0.67(-1.08%)

    101262

    Deere & Company, NYSE

    DE

    304.7

    -0.80(-0.26%)

    2207

    E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

    DD

    80

    -0.98(-1.21%)

    8723

    Exxon Mobil Corp

    XOM

    46.82

    -1.29(-2.68%)

    264377

    Facebook, Inc.

    FB

    271.8

    -1.07(-0.39%)

    162473

    FedEx Corporation, NYSE

    FDX

    251.61

    -2.33(-0.92%)

    4262

    Ford Motor Co.

    F

    11.51

    -0.02(-0.17%)

    3322569

    Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

    FCX

    28.96

    -1.08(-3.60%)

    199072

    General Electric Co

    GE

    10.89

    -0.18(-1.62%)

    633371

    General Motors Company, NYSE

    GM

    54.17

    -0.91(-1.65%)

    376352

    Goldman Sachs

    GS

    286.52

    -2.85(-0.98%)

    13266

    Google Inc.

    GOOG

    1,881.99

    -9.26(-0.49%)

    7529

    Hewlett-Packard Co.

    HPQ

    25.1

    -0.26(-1.03%)

    6047

    Home Depot Inc

    HD

    277.6

    -1.45(-0.52%)

    1822

    HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

    HON

    203.64

    -1.59(-0.77%)

    783

    Intel Corp

    INTC

    59.3

    -3.16(-5.06%)

    1008361

    International Business Machines Co...

    IBM

    120.85

    -10.80(-8.20%)

    551491

    Johnson & Johnson

    JNJ

    162.51

    0.78(0.48%)

    33591

    JPMorgan Chase and Co

    JPM

    133.11

    -1.72(-1.28%)

    47787

    McDonald's Corp

    MCD

    212.5

    -1.03(-0.48%)

    3621

    Merck & Co Inc

    MRK

    81

    -0.18(-0.22%)

    12069

    Microsoft Corp

    MSFT

    225.75

    0.78(0.35%)

    199599

    Nike

    NKE

    140.35

    -1.26(-0.89%)

    5415

    Pfizer Inc

    PFE

    36.29

    -0.19(-0.52%)

    216394

    Procter & Gamble Co

    PG

    131.19

    0.18(0.14%)

    10027

    Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

    SBUX

    103.81

    -0.77(-0.74%)

    18080

    Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

    TSLA

    833.52

    -11.47(-1.36%)

    385935

    The Coca-Cola Co

    KO

    48.89

    -0.06(-0.12%)

    56840

    Travelers Companies Inc

    TRV

    147

    -1.72(-1.16%)

    767

    Twitter, Inc., NYSE

    TWTR

    46.7

    -0.42(-0.89%)

    81082

    UnitedHealth Group Inc

    UNH

    352.3

    -2.70(-0.76%)

    471

    Verizon Communications Inc

    VZ

    57.17

    -0.10(-0.17%)

    8033

    Visa

    V

    203.75

    -1.39(-0.68%)

    8720

    Wal-Mart Stores Inc

    WMT

    145.33

    0.48(0.33%)

    21979

    Walt Disney Co

    DIS

    172.79

    1.51(0.88%)

    104609

    Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

    YNDX

    67.32

    -1.33(-1.94%)

    20984

  • 14:53

    Initiations before the market open

    Microsoft (MSFT) initiated with a Buy at Goldman; target $285

  • 14:52

    Target price changes before the market open

    Intel (INTC) target raised to $79 from $75 at Cowen

  • 14:52

    Upgrades before the market open

    Ford Motor (F) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; target $14

    Walt Disney (DIS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; target raised to $200

  • 14:50

    Canada’s retail sales rise much more than forecast in November

    Statistics Canada announced on Friday that the Canadian retail sales rose 1.3 percent m-o-m to CAD55.19 billion in November, following an unrevised 0.4 percent m-o-m advance in October.

    Economists had forecast a 0.1 percent m-o-m uptick for November.

    According to the report, sales increased in 7 of 11 subsectors in November, accounting for 53.4 percent of total retail sales. Sales at food and beverage stores and e-commerce sales contributed the most to the growth, surging 5.9 percent m-o-m and 2.7 percent m-o-m respectively. Meanwhile, sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers declined 0.9 percent m-o-m, recording their first monthly drop since April. Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales jumped 2.1 percent m-o-m in November compared to a flat m-o-m performance in October and economists’ forecast for a 0.3 percent m-o-m increase. Core retail sales, which excludes gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers, increased 2.6 percent m-o-m in November after advancing 0.3 percent m-o-m in October.

    In y-o-y terms, Canadian retail sales climbed 7.5 percent in November, following a revised 7.3 percent increase in October (originally a 7.5 percent surge).

  • 14:31

    Canada: Retail Sales YoY, November 7.5%

  • 14:30

    Canada: Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m, November 2.1 (forecast 0.3%)

  • 14:30

    Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, November 1.3 (forecast 0.1%)

  • 14:26

    UK PM Johnson's spokesman: There are no plans to introduce an extra GBP500 Covid payment for people in England required to self-isolate

    • The vast majority of the public continue to abide by rules and do isolate when they are asked
    • I would point to fact that more people are being tested than ever before
    • People are coming forward for tests and the vast majority continue to abide by rules

  • 13:59

    S&P 500 Index: Correction lower to emerge from 3900 - Credit Suisse

    FXStreet reports that according to the Credit Suisse analyst team, the S&P 500 Index is set to be capped for now at 3900 and a correction lower can emerge from here.

    “S&P 500 has paused beneath next flagged Fibonacci and potential trend resistance at 3866/68. Although momentum is still unable to confirm the new highs, with a large bullish ‘outside week’ in place from the beginning of the year, we still look for a break above 3868 for a move to our long-held and core ‘measured triangle objective’ from October at 3900.” 

    “With daily and weekly DeMark sequential exhaustion signals all but in place now, 10yr US Inflation Breakevens being capped at their next major resistance and our target and with a cluster of further Fibonacci projection resistances seen here and stretching up to 3930, we maintain our bias of looking for a correction to then emerge from 3900.” 

  • 13:39

    USD/CNY: Yuan to stay resilient in 2021 - HSBC

    FXStreet notes that USD/CNY has shown some two-way volatility, amid higher longer-term US yields and uncertainty around US-China relations. In the view of economists at HSBC, the yuan will remain resilient this year, even when China’s economic outperformance is expected to narrow in the second half of 2021.

    “USD/CNY has exhibited some two-way volatility lately, as higher longer-term US treasury bond yields have caused some debate on the outlook for the USD. We believe there is also uncertainty around how US-China relations could evolve under the new US administration. The Biden administration is said to be preparing to address China's unfair trade and investment practice, while the US still views China as its most important strategic competitor.”

    “We do not expect significant CNY appreciation from current rich levels. Recently, Chinese authorities adjusted its FX policy, such as encouraging outflows and promoting more two-way portfolio flows. We have long argued that China’s capital account liberalisation will be two-way. Locals’ demand for external assets, once allowed by regulators, will be significant. The re-listing of American depositary receipts on the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx) and the potential launch of Southbound Bond Connect could both lead to large outbound investment.”

    “We maintain our view that the yuan will remain resilient this year, while the level of USD/CNY in the second half of the year is expected to be slightly higher than that in the first half, as the yield differential between China and the US is expected to narrow.”

  • 13:21

    European session review: GBP mostly lower, weighed down by gloomy data out of UK

     
    TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
    07:00United KingdomRetail Sales (MoM)December-4.1%1.2%0.3%
    07:00United KingdomRetail Sales (YoY) December2.1%4%2.9%
    07:00United KingdomPSNB, blnDecember-26.1-32.1-34.1
    08:15FranceManufacturing PMIJanuary51.150.551.5
    08:15FranceServices PMIJanuary49.148.546.5
    08:30GermanyServices PMIJanuary4745.346.8
    08:30GermanyManufacturing PMIJanuary58.357.557
    09:00EurozoneManufacturing PMIJanuary55.254.554.7
    09:00EurozoneServices PMIJanuary46.444.545
    09:30United KingdomPurchasing Manager Index Manufacturing January57.55452.9
    09:30United KingdomPurchasing Manager Index ServicesJanuary49.44538.8

    GBP declined against most of its major rivals in the European session on Friday, as investor sentiment was weighed down by a series of grim economic data out of the UK. It fell against USD, CHF, EUR and JPY, rose against AUD, and changed little against CAD and NZD.

    The report from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) showed that Britain suffered its steepest drop in business activity since May in January due to the imposition of a third national lockdown at the beginning of the year. According to the report, the headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Flash UK Composite Output Index came in at 40.6 in January 2021, down sharply from 50.4 in December 2020 and well below the 50.0 threshold that indicates growth. The indicator was the lowest since May 2020 and below economists' forecasts of 45.5. Nonetheless, the speed of the downturn in the private sector output was softer than at the start of the pandemic (13.8 in April).

    Meanwhile, the data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), revealed the UK's retail sales rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in December, following a 4.1 percent y/y drop in November. The pace of growth, however, was much slower than the economists' forecast of +1.2 percent y/y. In y-o-y terms, retail sales growth accelerated to 2.9 percent in December from 2.1 percent in November. Economists had expected a 4 percent y-o-y jump in retail sales for December.

  • 12:59

    Brent crude oil: Bulls are back, average 2021 forecast raised to $55-60 - DBS Bank

    FXStreet notes that Brent crude oil prices are currently close to $55/bbl, having started the year at $52/bbl. Suvro Sarkar, Industry Analyst at DBS Bank, revises up the average Brent Crude Oil price forecast for 2021 to $55-60/bbl and introduces the 2022 average Brent Crude Oil price forecast of $60-65/bbl. 

    “Brent averaged around $43/bbl in 2020. We are likely to see a much better year for oil in 2021, as demand recovers (by around 6mmbbpd by our projections), while supply remains curtailed by OPEC+ production cut agreements (increasing by around 3.0mmbpd by our projections, less than the demand increase). While oil demand is still not expected to recover close to pre-covid levels in 2021; the pace of demand growth is nevertheless expected to outstrip the pace of supply growth in 2021, leading to inventory drawdowns and stronger oil prices overall.”

    “With a stronger start to the year in our forecasts now, we thus raise our average 2021 Brent crude oil price forecast to$55-60/bbl. We also introduce 2022 average Brent crude oil forecast of$60-65/bbl on the assumption that air travel recovers closer to normal levels in 2022, OPEC+ discipline stays and US shale growth is contained under the new Biden administration.”

  • 12:48

    Company News: Intel (INTC) quarterly results solidly beat analysts’ estimates

    Intel (INTC) reported Q4 FY 2020 earnings of $1.52 per share (versus $1.52 per share in Q4 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.11 per share.

    The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $20.000 bln (-1.0% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $17.478 bln.

    The company also issued upside guidance for Q1 FY 2021, projecting EPS of $1.10 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.96 and revenues of $17.50 bln versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $16.36 bln.

    INTC fell to $60.00 (-3.94%) in pre-market trading.

  • 12:37

    USD/CNH still eyes a move to 6.5200 - UOB

    FXStreet reports that FX strategists at UOB Group believe that the upside momentum in USD/CNH could still reach the 6.5200-region in the next weeks.

    24-hour view: “We expected USD to weaken further yesterday but we were of the view that ‘any decline is expected to face solid support at 6.4450’. However, USD traded in a relatively quiet manner between 6.4561 and 6.4705. Upward momentum is beginning to build-up and USD is likely to edge higher from here. That said, any advance is expected to face solid resistance at 6.4880. Support is 6.4600 followed by 6.4550.”

    Next 1-3 weeks: “...while upward momentum has been dented, there is still chance for USD to move to 6.5200. Only a break of 6.4450 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that USD is not ready to move to 6.5200.”

  • 12:29

    Company News: IBM (IBM) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ forecast

    IBM (IBM) reported Q4 FY 2020 earnings of $2.07 per share (versus $4.71 per share in Q4 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.88 per share.

    The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $20.367 bln (-6.5% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $20.630 bln.

    The company also said it expects to grow revenue in FY 2021 after a 4.6% y/y decline in FY 2020.

    IBM fell to $121.69 (-7.57%) in pre-market trading.

  • 12:16

    USD/CAD to resume the bear trend on a sustained move beneath 1.2620 - Credit Suisse

    FXStreet reports that the Credit Suisse analyst team notes that USD/CAD has reversed back higher after testing below the crucial 78.6% retracement at 1.2620, keeping the rangebound environment intact.

    “USD/CAD saw another test below the crucial support area at the 78.6% retracement of the entire 2017/2020 surge at 1.2620. However, the market reverted mildly back higher as expected, posting a small bullish ‘hammer’ and keeping the rangebound environment in place for now, which is also supported by the fact that daily momentum is increasingly divergent and now holds a triple bullish divergence.” 

    “Resistance is seen initially at 1.2700/02, then 1.2717, where we would expect to see fresh sellers again. Nevertheless, a break above here would expose 1.2764, removal of which would see 1.2835 next. If reached, this should be a tougher barrier to break, and only beyond here would see a ‘wedge’ small base completed.” 

  • 11:58

    German government sees 2021 GDP growth of 3% - Spiegel

    Reuters reports that news magazine Der Spiegel said that the German government expects the economy to grow by 3% this year, which is a downward revision from last autumn’s estimate of 4.4% due to the second shutdown to fight the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

    German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier is due to present the government’s official forecast next week.

  • 11:40

    AUD/USD: Further gains in the first quarter – CIBC

    FXStreet reports that economists at CIBC Capital Markets look for further strength in the AUD/USD.

    “From present levels, we target further gains in AUD/USD, to 0.7850 in Q1. A rebound in domestic economic activity, underpinned by accommodative monetary policy, was a strong driver of AUD strength to date. We anticipate that support to continue.”

    “On trade, the contribution of iron ore cannot be dismissed, any talk of that market between Australia and China would be concerning. Unless that is the case, we remain bullish and buyers of AUD weakness.”

  • 11:20

    Economists cut euro zone growth forecast for 2021 - European Central Bank

    Reuters reports that a European Central Bank survey showed that the pandemic-stricken euro zone economy is likely to rebound this year but at a slower pace than expected only a few months ago.

    Economists polled in the ECB’s quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters put real GDP growth in the euro zone at 4.4% this year, down from 5.3% in the previous edition of the survey.

    As for next year, the survey showed the economy was now expected to expand by 3.7%, compared to 2.6% in the October poll.

  • 11:00

    EUR/GBP to move back to 0.87 by late-2021 – Rabobank

    FXStreet reports that economists at Rabobank discuss EUR/GBP prospects.

    “The forthcoming BoE meeting on February 4 may bring some additional colour to the inflation outlook in the UK. The fact that the UK’s lockdown could extent into March and given evidence that its rapid vaccine programme is still a way off from halting the pandemic in the country, we see scope for additional gains in the pound to be limited near-term. We retain our forecast that EUR/GBP is likely trade in the 0.89/0.88 region in the coming months and may not see a return to the 0.87 level until later in the year.”

  • 10:45

    UK private sector output fell the most since last May

    According to the report from IHS Markit/CIPS, UK private sector companies signalled a renewed downturn in business activity during January, which largely reflected national lockdown restrictions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) pandemic. The service economy was hard-hit by restrictions on trade and reduced consumer spending at the start of the year, with business activity falling at the fastest pace for eight months. Manufacturers recorded a fractional rise in production volumes, but the rate of expansion eased sharply since December. Weaker export orders and short-term supply chain difficulties contributed to the slowdown in output growth, according to survey respondents. Apart from April 2020, latest data pointed to the largest increase in suppliers' delivery times since the UK Manufacturing PMI survey began almost 30 years ago.

    Despite a swift return to falling business activity at the beginning of the year, latest data indicated that UK private sector companies remain upbeat about their prospects on a longer-term basis. The index measuring business expectations for the next 12 months picked up slightly since December and was the highest since May 2014. Continuing the trend seen in recent months, survey respondents overwhelmingly attributed their positive business expectations to a successful vaccine roll-out during 2021.

    The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit / CIPS Flash UK Composite Output Index – which is based on approximately 85% of usual monthly replies – registered 40.6 in January, down sharply from 50.4 in December and well below the neutral 50.0 threshold. The index was the lowest since May 2020 and much weaker than in the second national lockdown period during November (49.0). However, the speed of the downturn in UK private sector output was still softer than at the start of the pandemic (13.8 in April 2020), with many businesses citing successful efforts to adapt and prepare for new COVID-19 restrictions.

  • 10:30

    United Kingdom: Purchasing Manager Index Services, January 38.8 (forecast 45)

  • 10:30

    United Kingdom: Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing , January 52.9 (forecast 54)

  • 10:18

    Eurozone economy suffers steepening decline at start of 2021

    According to the report from IHS Markit, eurozone business activity fell at an accelerated rate in January as companies continued to struggle amid the ongoing pandemic and related restrictions. The rate of factory output growth weakened to the slowest since the recovery began and the service sector saw output fall at the second-fastest rate since May.

    The headline flash Eurozone Composite PMI fell from 49.1 in December to 47.5 in January, indicating a third successive monthly decline in business activity and the steepest deterioration since November. However, the last three months have seen the PMI remain higher than during the initial months of the pandemic in the spring of last year, suggesting that the economic impact of the second wave of virus infections has so far been considerably less severe than in the first wave. The worsening performance in January was broad based across the eurozone, albeit with marked variations. 

    The greatest signs of resilience amid the ongoing pandemic continued to be evident in manufacturing. Eurozone factory output expanded for a seventh consecutive month in January thanks to sustained growth of new orders, exports and backlogs of work. Although the overall pace of factory output growth slowed to the lowest in seven months, it remained among the highest seen over the past three years.

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI, January 54.7 (forecast 54.5)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Services PMI, January 45 (forecast 44.5)

  • 09:44

    German PMI slips to seven-month low in January - IHS Markit

    According to the report from IHS Markit, tougher measures to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections further depressed activity across Germany’s service sector at the start of the year, although overall economic output in the country continued to see support from growth in the manufacturing sector and rising goods exports. Data also showed employment increasing slightly in January as firms’ expectations for the year ahead improved.

    Elsewhere, January’s survey revealed unprecedented delays on the delivery of inputs to manufacturers amid growing pressure on supply chains and widespread freight disruption.

    The headline Flash Germany Composite Output Index fell to 50.8 in January, down from 52.0 in December and its lowest reading for seven months.

    Sector level data showed services activity dropping for the fourth month in a row, and at a slightly quicker rate than in December (index at 46.8 from 47.0). The Manufacturing Output Index remained in growth territory in January, though slipped to a five-month low of 58.6 to show a further loss of momentum in the goods-producing sector.

  • 09:30

    Germany: Manufacturing PMI, January 57 (forecast 57.5)

  • 09:30

    Germany: Services PMI, January 46.8 (forecast 45.3)

  • 09:15

    France: Services PMI, January 46.5 (forecast 48.5)

  • 09:15

    France: Manufacturing PMI, January 51.5 (forecast 50.5)

  • 09:01

    Asian session review: the dollar rose against most major currencies

    TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
    00:01United KingdomGfk Consumer ConfidenceJanuary-26-29-28
    00:30AustraliaRetail Sales, M/MDecember7.1%-2.5%-4.2%
    00:30JapanNikkei Services PMIJanuary47.2 45.7
    00:30JapanManufacturing PMIJanuary50 49.7
    07:00United KingdomRetail Sales (MoM)December-4.1%1.2%0.3%
    07:00United KingdomRetail Sales (YoY) December2.1%4%2.9%
    07:00United KingdomPSNB, blnDecember-26.1-32.1-34.1


    During today's Asian trading, the US dollar stabilized against the euro, but rose against most Asian currencies on the back of increased demand for safe haven assets due to the continued increase in the incidence of COVID-19 worldwide and new quarantine measures.

    Hong Kong on Friday for the first time announced the introduction of a partial lockdown due to the worsening situation with the coronavirus. An outbreak of the disease has also been noted in China, which raises the concerns of experts, given the approach of the holidays on the occasion of the New Year according to the Lunar calendar.

    The ICE index, which tracks the dollar's performance against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), rose 0.1%.

    On the eve of the European Central Bank (ECB) kept key interest rates, as well as the volume of the emergency program of asset repurchases. ECB President Christine Lagarde said during a press conference following the meeting that the renewed increase in the incidence of COVID-19 and the re-introduction of restrictive measures in many countries of the euro zone undermines economic activity and creates risks for the economy in the short term.

  • 08:45

    U.S. stimulus, continued Iran sanctions supportive for oil prices - Goldman

    Reuters reports that Goldman Sachs said that the new U.S. administration's plans for large fiscal spending and little urgency to lift sanctions on Iran are constructive for oil and gas prices.

    "On our estimates, a $2 trillion stimulus over 2021-22 would... boost U.S. demand by about 200,000 barrels per day," the bank said in a note.

    U.S. President Joe Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package aims to jump-start the economy and accelerate vaccines distribution to control COVID-19, which has hammered global oil demand.

    The bank also said that since the Biden administration is looking to strengthen and lengthen nuclear constraints on Iran, the country's oil exports would remain moderate this year and at 0.5 million barrels per day in the second half of 2021.

    "Delays in a full return of Iran production would reinforce our bullish oil outlook since we already forecast a tight 2022 crude market with low OPEC spare capacity," Goldman said.

  • 08:31

    SNB to continue doing its utmost to prevent sharp CHF rise - Credit Agricole

    eFXdata reports that Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a bearish bias on CHF.

    "When it comes to the SNB, we expect it to continue doing its utmost to prevent policy differentials from diverging. After all, the overvalued currency itself is treated as a key driver of overly tight monetary conditions which suggests a policy mix consisting of negative rates and currency intervention if needed will stay in place for longer and regardless of any external criticism. We continue to target EUR/CHF at around 1.1200 by end 2021 with more upside expected in 2022," CACIB adds.

  • 08:17

    UK retail sales rose less than expected in December

    According to the report from Office for National Statistics, in December 2020, retail sales volumes increased by 0.3% when compared with November 2020, resulting in an increase of 2.7% when compared with February's pre-lockdown level. Economists had expected a 1.2% increase.

    Clothing stores reported strong monthly growth of 21.5%, rebounding from a large fall in November 2020 when stores were closed because of coronavirus  (COVID-19) restrictions.

    The year-on-year growth rate in the volume of retail sales increased by 2.9% when compared with December 2019; non-store retailers reported the largest year-on-year growth at 43.5% while food stores also saw strong annual growth of 4.4%.

    In 2020 as a whole, estimates of the quantity bought decreased by 1.9% when compared with 2019, the largest year-on-year fall on record.

    Clothing stores (negative 25.1%), fuel stores (negative 22.2%), "other stores" (negative 11.6%) and department stores (negative 5.2%) all recorded record annual declines in sales volumes in 2020 when compared with 2019, non-store retailing, however, saw a record annual increase of 32.0% for 2020.

    Total online retailing values increased by 46.1% in 2020 when compared with 2019, the highest annual growth reported since 2008.

    Food stores (79.3%), "other stores" (73.9%), household goods stores (73.4%) and department stores (65.9%) all recorded record annual increases in values of internet sales in 2020 when compared with 2019.

  • 08:14

    Options levels on friday, January 22, 2021

    EUR/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.2281 (497)

    $1.2249 (944)

    $1.2223 (286)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.2159

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.2123 (2258)

    $1.2099 (1212)

    $1.2069 (1080)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 5 is 46930 contracts (according to data from January, 21) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (2892);


    GBP/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.3826 (1696)

    $1.3801 (1564)

    $1.3765 (1126)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.3674

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.3562 (784)

    $1.3523 (260)

    $1.3481 (1687)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 5 is 11540 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (1722);

    - Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 5 is 19673 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (2183);

    - The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.70 versus 1.71 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 21

     

    * - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

    ** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

  • 08:00

    United Kingdom: PSNB, bln, December -34.1 (forecast -32.1)

  • 08:00

    United Kingdom: Retail Sales (YoY) , December 2.9 (forecast 4%)

  • 08:00

    United Kingdom: Retail Sales (MoM), December 0.3 (forecast 1.2%)

  • 03:30

    Commodities. Daily history for Thursday, January 21, 2021

    Raw materials Closed Change, %
    Brent 55.93 0.11
    Silver 25.928 0.42
    Gold 1869.506 -0.09
    Palladium 2363.39 -0.37
  • 01:31

    Australia: Retail Sales, December -4.2 (forecast -2.5%), M/M

  • 01:30

    Japan: Nikkei Services PMI, January 45.7

  • 01:30

    Japan: Manufacturing PMI, January 49.7

  • 01:30

    Schedule for today, Friday, January 22, 2021

    Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
    00:01 (GMT) United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence January -26 -29
    00:30 (GMT) Australia Retail Sales, M/M December 7.1% -2.5%
    00:30 (GMT) Japan Manufacturing PMI January 50  
    00:30 (GMT) Japan Nikkei Services PMI January 47.7  
    07:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) December -3.8% 1.2%
    07:00 (GMT) United Kingdom PSNB, bln December -31.6 -32.1
    07:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) December 2.4% 4%
    08:15 (GMT) France Manufacturing PMI January 51.1 50.5
    08:15 (GMT) France Services PMI January 49.1 48.5
    08:30 (GMT) Germany Services PMI January 47 45.3
    08:30 (GMT) Germany Manufacturing PMI January 58.3 57.5
    09:00 (GMT) Eurozone Manufacturing PMI January 55.2 54.5
    09:00 (GMT) Eurozone Services PMI January 46.4 44.5
    09:30 (GMT) United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing January 57.5 54
    09:30 (GMT) United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services January 49.4 45
    13:30 (GMT) Canada Retail Sales, m/m November 0.4% 0.1%
    13:30 (GMT) Canada Retail Sales YoY November 7.5%  
    13:30 (GMT) Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m November 0.0% 0.3%
    14:45 (GMT) U.S. Services PMI January 54.8 53.6
    14:45 (GMT) U.S. Manufacturing PMI January 57.1 56.5
    15:00 (GMT) U.S. Existing Home Sales December 6.69 6.55
    16:00 (GMT) U.S. Crude Oil Inventories January -3.247 -1.167
    18:00 (GMT) U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count January 287  
  • 01:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Thursday, January 21, 2021

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.77641 0.24
    EURJPY 125.926 0.52
    EURUSD 1.21688 0.55
    GBPJPY 142.126 0.52
    GBPUSD 1.37343 0.57
    NZDUSD 0.7214 0.63
    USDCAD 1.26358 0.05
    USDCHF 0.88499 -0.46
    USDJPY 103.476 -0.04
  • 01:01

    United Kingdom: Gfk Consumer Confidence, January -28 (forecast -29)

  • 00:30

    Japan: National Consumer Price Index, y/y, December -1.2

  • 00:30

    Japan: National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y, December -1 (forecast -1.1%)

22 stycznia 2021
KWOTOWANIA
Instrument Oferta Zamówienie Czas
AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
XAGEUR
XAGUSD
XAUUSD

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Treść powyższych analiz jest tylko i wyłącznie wyrazem osobistych poglądów jej autora i nie stanowi rekomendacji w rozumieniu przepisów Rozporządzenia Ministra Finansów z dnia 19 października 2005 r. w sprawie informacji stanowiących rekomendacje dotyczące instrumentów finansowych lub ich emitentów. (Dz. U. z 2005 r. Nr 206, poz. 1715). Analiza nie spełnia wymogów stawianych rekomendacjom w rozumieniu w/w ustawy. Przeczytaj nasze pełne oświadczenie.

Kontrakty CFD są złożonymi instrumentami i wiążą się z dużym ryzykiem szybkiej utraty środków pieniężnych z powodu dźwigni finansowej. 76% rachunków inwestorów detalicznych odnotowuje straty w wyniku handlu kontraktami CFD u niniejszego dostawcy. Zastanów się, czy rozumiesz, jak działają kontrakty CFD, i czy możesz pozwolić sobie na wysokie ryzyko utraty pieniędzy.