Market news

30 września 2022
  • 07:28

    GBP/USD: A visit to 1.1300 appears unlikely for now – UOB

    Further upside in GBP/USD looks on the cards, although another visit to 1.1300 seems out of favour for the time being, suggest FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang.

    Key Quotes

    24-hour view: “The strong surge in GBP came as a surprise (we were expecting range-trading).  GBP closed on a strong note at 1.1119 (+2.13%) and continues to advance in early Asian trade. The rapidly improving upward momentum suggests GBP could continue to rise. That said, conditions are overbought and a break of 1.1300 is unlikely (there is another resistance at 1.1250). On the downside, a breach of 1.1050 (minor support is at 1.1100) would indicate that the current upward pressure has subsided.”

    Next 1-3 weeks: “Yesterday (29 Sep, spot at 1.0825), we noted downward momentum has waned and we were of the view that the probability of GBP dropping to 1.0000 has diminished considerably. That said, we did not quite expect the strong surge as GBP soared by 2.13% and closed at 1.1119 in NY. The breach of our ‘strong resistance’ level 1.1000 indicates that the weakness in GBP from more than 2 weeks ago (see annotations in the chart below) has bottomed for now. The current strong rebound has scope to extend but at this stage, the resistance at 1.1300 is unlikely to come under challenge. Overall, only a breach of 1.0800 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the rapid build-up in short-term momentum has eased.”

  • 07:23

    Gold Futures: Probable correction in the offing

    Open interest in gold futures markets resumed the downside and shrank by around 3.2K contracts on Thursday, according to preliminary readings from CME Group. In the same line, volume dropped by around 90.3K contracts, offsetting the previous day’s build.

    Gold: Upside looks capped by $1,688

    Thursday’s small uptick in prices of the ounce troy of gold was accompanied by shrinking open interest and volume, opening the door to some corrective move in the very near term. In the meantime, the weekly high at $1,688 (September 21) continue to cap the upside for the time being.

  • 07:17

    USD/IDR marches towards $15,300 despite subdued DXY, US PCE in focus

    • USD/IDR is advancing towards $15,300 as BI’s hawkish policy has failed to support the Indonesian Rupiah.
    • Economists believe that BI’s hawkish policy and modest intervention will settle it around $15,000.
    • DXY’s investors are awaiting the release of the US PCE and Michigan CSI data.

    The USD/IDR pair is attempting to overstep the critical hurdle of $15,275 in the Tokyo session. The asset is extremely bullish despite the meaningful correction in the US dollar index (DXY), which has already dragged the asset to near 112.00. The major is aiming to hit the ultimate target of $15,300 sooner despite the tailwinds of soaring interest rates by the Bank of Indonesia (BI).

    In September’s monetary policy meeting, BI Governor Perry Warjiyo hiked the interest rates by 50 basis points (bps). The focus of the BI is to bring stabilization in the Indonesian Rupiah in the ongoing volatile environment.

    Economists at ANZ Bank forecast USD/IDR at 15,000 by the end of the year and expect the policy rate to peak at 5.75% in Q2 2023. A modest intervention in the currency markets by the BI has managed to bring some stability to the Indonesian Rupiah.

    Meanwhile, Edi Susianto, head of BI's monetary management department, told that the central bank would prioritize policies, which should support the market mechanism. He further cited that the BI has no need for capital controls, as reported by Reuters.

    On the US dollar index (DXY) front, the DXY is likely to remain on the tenterhooks ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data. The economic data is seen higher at 4.7%, 10 bps above the prior release. Apart from that, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) data will also remain in focus. The sentiment data is expected to remain steady at 58.5.

     

  • 07:12

    EUR/USD eyes consecutive fourth monthly loss as options market holds bearish bias

    EUR/USD grinds lower around the intraday bottom of 0.9800 while staying on the way to posting the first weekly gain in three. Even so, the major currency pair prints a four-month downtrend heading into Friday’s European session.

    That said, the market’s fears of recession and the central banks’ aggression might have favored the medium-term bears. However, the cautionary mood ahead of the key US/EU inflation data joins the quarter-end positioning to offer the latest gains.

    Also read: EUR/USD pares first weekly gain in three around 0.9800 ahead of EU/US inflation data

    It should be noted that the one-month risk reversal (RR) on the Euro, a gauge of calls to puts, prints the biggest daily figure in two weeks with the latest daily RR number of 0.165, per the latest data provided by Reuters. However, the weekly figure is still in the red while flashing the second negative print of -0.290 by the press time.

    Furthermore, the monthly and quarterly RR numbers are also in favor of the EUR/USD sellers while registering -0.370 and -0.170 levels, per Reuters.

    Given the broadly bearish bias of the options market, the EUR/USD prices are likely to fade from the recent corrective bounce off the 20-year low.

  • 07:04

    Japan Housing Starts (YoY) came in at 4.6%, above expectations (-4.1%) in August

  • 07:00

    Japan Consumer Confidence Index registered at 30.8, below expectations (31.2) in September

  • 07:00

    EUR/USD faces some consolidation within 0.9630-0.9950 – UOB

    FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang note EUR/USD is now expected to navigate within 0.9630 and 0.9950 in the next few weeks.

    Key Quotes

    24-hour view: “We expected EUR to ‘trade sideways between 0.9620 and 0.9750’ yesterday. Our view was incorrect as EUR dropped to 0.9634 before surging higher to close at 0.9814 (+0.82%). EUR extended its advance in early Asian trade. The rapidly improving upward momentum is likely to lead to further advance to 0.9880 before a pullback is likely. The next resistance at 0.9950 is unlikely to come into view. On the downside, a breach of 0.9740 (minor support is at 0.9780) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”

    Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held a negative EUR view for more than 2 weeks now. After EUR dropped to 0.9530 and rebounded strongly, we indicated yesterday (29 Sep, spot at 0.9705) that ‘there is still a slim chance for EUR to drop to 0.9500’. EUR subsequently soared and took out our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.9750. The breach of the ‘strong resistance’ level indicates that the USD weakness has stabilized. EUR appears to have moved into a consolidation phase and is likely to trade between 0.9630 and 0.9950 for now.”

  • 06:53

    Asian Stock Market: Braces for the worst month since pandemic as recession woes amplify

    • Asia-Pacific shares eye the biggest monthly drop since March 2020.
    • Fears of economic slowdown, hawkish central bank weighs on equities.
    • Recent data from China, Japan fail to impress traders amid pre-inflation release anxiety in the market.

    Asia-Pacific stocks remain pressured heading into the last European trading day of the worst month in 2.5 years. The region’s equities brace for the biggest monthly loss since March 2020 as traders fear grim conditions ahead, mainly due to the fears of higher rates and a lack of economic optimism.

    While portraying the mood, the MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan drop near 12.5% in a month to print the biggest monthly loss since March 2020, up 0.20% intraday. That said, Japan’s Nikkei dropped 2.15% on a day despite firmer activity data from Japan and stimulus hopes.

    Further, equities from China, Australia and New Zealand were in the red as the dragon nation flashed mixed activity data while also raising doubts on the Chinese authorities’ market interventions. Elsewhere, Hong Kong shares were likely heading for their worst quarter since 2001 and Chinese blue-chips might also finish September by recording their biggest quarterly loss since a stock market meltdown in 2015, per Reuters.

    It’s worth noting that South Korea’s KOSPI and Indonesia’s IDX Composite print mild losses as India announced less than feared rate hikes.

    On a different page, gold prices grind higher while the US Dollar Index (DXY) trace yields to defend buyers, despite bracing for the first weekly loss in three. Additionally, WTI crude oil stays ready to snap a four-week downtrend, retreating of late.

    Moving on, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August, expected 4.7% YoY versus 4.6% prior, appears crucial for the market players for short-term directions. Also important will be the Eurozone HICPI and CPI details for September. Above all, risk catalysts will be crucial for near-term directions as firmer inflation data could weigh on the equities and roil the mood.

  • 06:44

    India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) in line with expectations (5.9%)

  • 06:33

    AUD/USD drops below 0.6500 as DXY defends 112.00, RBA policy hogs limelight

    • AUD/USD has fallen below 0.6500, however, the upside remains favored.
    • The RBA is expected to sound mildly hawkish as the optimal terminal rate is not so far.
    • US core PCE price index is likely to land 10 bps higher at 4.7%.

    The AUD/USD pair has slipped below the psychological support of 0.6500 after failing to test Thursday’s high at 0.6525. The decline in the asset is gradual as the upside bias is intact and amid an overall weakness in the US dollar index (DXY). In the Asian session, the DXY attempted to defend the establishment below 112.00, which resulted in a minor correction in the antipodean.

    A lackluster performance is highly expected from the asset as investors are awaiting the announcement of October’s monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). RBA monetary policy minutes released on September 20 displayed that the policymakers also considered a rate hike of 25 basis points (bps), although an announcement was made for the fourth consecutive 50 bps hike. And, RBA Governor Philip Lowe is expecting the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to top around 3.85%.

    Meanwhile, downbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI data has failed to impact the aussie bulls. The economic data has landed at 48.1, lower than the expectations and the prior release of 49.5.

    It is worth noting that Australia is a leading trading partner of China and a weaker-than-projected Caixin Manufacturing PMI data carries a significant impact on Australian exports.

    On the US dollar index (DXY) front, the DXY has managed to defend sustainability below 112.00 for the time being. Clouds of pessimism over the US dollar index (DXY) have not faded yet and the pullback move could be terminated, which will resume the downside journey.

    In today’s session, investors will focus on the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data, which is seen higher at 4.7%, 10 bps above the prior release.

     

  • 06:30

    Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 3.2% to 3.7% in August

  • 06:22

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD awaits Fed’s preferred inflation gauge near $1,660

    • Gold price fades upside momentum during the first positive week in three, grinds higher of late.
    • Pre-data anxiety, mixed sentiment test XAU/USD buyers, firmer yields also restricts upside momentum.
    • Strong inflation numbers could pare gold’s weekly gains amid hawkish central banks, recession woes.

     

    Gold price (XAU/USD) remains sidelined around the weekly tops, taking rounds to $1,660 during early Friday morning in Europe, as traders await the key data from the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Also challenging the metal prices could be the mixed sentiment and risk catalysts, as well as the quarter-end positioning.

    That said, the recently printed mixed activity data from China, one of the major gold consumers, act as the immediate catalyst to limit the XAU/USD moves. That said, China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 versus 49.6 expected and 49.4 prior while the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.6 compared to 52.0 market forecasts and 52.6 prior readings.  Further, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.1 during the stated month versus 49.5 expected and prior.

    On the other hand, news that the dragon nation eased FX restrictions in response to the Fed rate rise, shared by the Financial Times (FT), contrasts the fears of a recession in Beijing to challenge momentum traders.

    Elsewhere, hawkish central bankers and fears of recession underpin the Treasury yields but the US dollar struggles to regain upside momentum amid the quarter-end positioning. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains mildly bid around 112.10 while bracing for the first weekly loss in three. It should be noted that the stock futures and the Asia-Pacific equities also trade mixed as markets await the key US and European inflation numbers.

    Additionally, the geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine joins the Sino-American tussles and the West versus Moscow problems to challenge the XAU/USD upside. On the contrary, the recent stimulus from the UK and Japan seems to help the risk-takers.

    To sum up, the gold price anxiously awaits the US and Eurozone inflation data for clear directions.

    Also read: US August PCE Inflation Preview: Will it trigger a dollar correction?

    Technical analysis

    Gold price retreats from a 12-day-old descending resistance line, attacking the weekly triangle’s bottom near $1,660 by the press time. While the steady RSI and recently sluggish MACD hint at further grinding of the XAU/USD, the 50-SMA level around $1,652 act as an extra filter for the bear’s entry.

    Following that, $1,642 and the latest swing low, also the yearly low of $1,614, could challenge the metal sellers.

    It should be noted, that the commodity’s weakness past $1,614 will be challenged by the $1,600 threshold and a downward sloping support line from September 16, close to $1,605 at the latest.

    Alternatively, an upside clearance of the immediate resistance line near $1,663 must cross the triangle’s upper line, at $1,671 as we write, to convince gold buyers. In that case, a run-up towards $1,688 and the $1,700 becomes imminent.

    Gold: Four-hour chart

    Trend: Limited upside expected

     

  • 05:52

    USD/JPY Price Analysis: Brace for a volatility expansion sooner

    • Bets are turning towards the greenback bulls as the pair has not accelerated in the recent DXY’s correction.
    • The 50 and 200-EMAs continue to march north, which adds to the upside filters.
    • The RSI (14) is still serving the 40.00-60.00 range that advocates consolidation.

    The USD/JPY pair is displaying a slowdown in the upside momentum after reaching around 144.80 in the Tokyo session. Earlier, the asset rebounded firmly after dropping to near 144.30. Broadly, the major is displaying topsy-turvy moves as investors are awaiting a potential trigger for informed action.

    On a four-hour scale, the major is auctioning in an inventory adjustment process, which indicates a tad longer consolidation period. It is critical to state that the adjustment process is an accumulation or distribution by institutional investors.

    This week, the US dollar index (DXY) witnessed an intense sell-off while risk-perceived currencies were having a ball. However, the USD/JPY pair didn’t display any weakness and remained firmer. It indicates that the yen bulls are extremely fragile against the greenback bulls and even a decent pullback move ahead will deliver an upside break of the inventory adjustment process.

    The 50-and 200-Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 144.00 and 141.40 respectively are advancing higher, which signifies that the upside bias is intact.

    While, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates a consolidation ahead.

    The greenback bulls could drive the asset higher after overstepping the previous week’s high at 145.90, which will drive the asset towards the August 1998 high at 147.67. A breach of the latter will send the major towards the psychological resistance of 150.00.

    For a decisive bearish reversal, the asset is required to drop below the previous week’s low at 140.35. An occurrence of the same will drag the asset towards the August 30 low at 138.05 followed by the August 23 low at 135.81.

    USD/JPY four-hour chart

     

     

  • 05:22

    AUD/NZD rebounds towards 1.1360, focus shifts to RBA/RBNZ monetary policy

    • AUD/NZD has picked bids around 1.1330 but seems to remain lackluster ahead of policy meetings.
    • Both RBA and the RBNZ will announce their monetary policies next week.
    • The RBA is not expected to sound extremely hawkish while the RBNZ will continue its 50 bps hike pattern.

    The AUD/NZD pair has recovered sharply after picking bids near 1.1327 in the Tokyo session. The asset is expected to test the downside break of the consolidation formed in a range of 1.1364-1.1412. On a broader note, the cross has corrected sharply after surrendering the round-level cushion of 1.1400. The asset is expected to remain on the sidelines ahead of the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

    The monetary policy meeting of the RBA is scheduled for Tuesday and RBA Governor Philip Lowe is not expected to sound extremely hawkish considering their options for the extent of the rate hike considered in the September meeting. As per RBA minutes, the RBA announced a fourth consecutive rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) but also considered the option of 25 bps.

    The official Cash Rate (OCR) was pushed to 2.35% in September monetary policy meeting. RBA Governor Philip Lowe is continuously accelerating the OCR to scale down the soaring price pressures. The Australian inflation rate has already increased to 6.1%, reading belongs to the second quarter of CY2022.

    Apart from that, the RBA policymakers cited that the OCR is expected to peak around 3.85% and the inflation rate will top around 7%. With the current pace of hiking the OCR by 50 bps, the central bank will reach the desired target by December 2022.

    On the kiwi front, a Reuters poll on the RBNZ rate hike forecast, scheduled on Wednesday, claims a fifth consecutive rate hike by 50 basis points (bps). A fifth half-a-percent rate hike by the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr will push the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.5%. It would be worth watching whether an OCR above 3% is sufficient to anchor the galloping inflation.

     

     

     

  • 05:09

    China loosened FX restrictions in response to Fed rate rise – FT

    Officials from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) privately communicated a relaxation of the informal limits on transaction in China's interbank market to foreign exchange brokers on Wednesday last week due to the Fed's interest rate rise of 0.75 percentage points, the Financial Times reported, citing two people familiar with the matter.

    The news also mentioned that the renminbi's sharp fall over the past week started after regulators told traders that they were relaxing the foreign exchange trading limits.

    The report, citing one of the people said the move to relax was made because policymakers "believed it was the proper time to let the renminbi depreciate a bit".

    Market reaction

    The news should have favored the USD/CNH prices to regain upside momentum after two loss-making days. That said, the offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) pair prints 0.26% intraday gains around 7.1150 by the press time.

    Also read: USD/CNH Price Analysis: Snaps two-day downtrend around 7.1300 after China PMIs

  • 05:06

    Japan’s Matsuno: Want to compile extra budget swiftly after econ package in late October

    Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno crossed wires, via Reuters, in early Friday while suggesting more stimulus from the Asian major.

    Key quotes

    Will consider further support for hard-hit consumers, businesses in view of higher energy, food prices.

    Will also consider steps to promote wage hikes.

    Japan will continue to engage with the g7 and international community to take strong measures against Russia and to support Ukraine.

    Russia's intended annexation cannot be permitted and is illegal under international law.

    North Korea may engage in a further provocative manner.

    FX reaction

    The news struggles to impress market players amid fears of recession and hawkish central bank actions, not to forget the cautious mood ahead of the key EU/US data.

    Also read: USD/JPY remains lackluster below 144.50 despite upbeat Japanese data

  • 04:59

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Teases sellers above 1.1055 support, US PCE Inflation, UK GDP eyed

    • GBP/USD struggles to extend two-week-old resistance breakout as 100-EMA tests buyers.
    • Pre-data anxiety, nearly overbought RSI (14) challenge immediate upside.
    • Sellers need validation from two-day-old support, scheduled data to retake control.

    GBP/USD struggles for clear directions around the weekly top after a three-day uptrend as traders await the key statistics from the US and the UK during Friday. That said, the quote currently seesaws between the 100-EMA and the resistance-turned-support line while taking rounds to 1.1120.

    It’s worth noting that the nearly overbought RSI conditions join the 100-EMA and the previous resistance line to challenge the pair’s latest moves, as well as the pre-data anxiety.

    Also read: GBP/USD pause on the way to 1.1200 ahead of UK GDP, US PCE Inflation

    It should be noted, however, that the comparative fundamental challenges for the UK and a seven-week-old resistance line portray the bearish bias for the GBP/USD pair.

    Hence, sellers should be on the lookout for entries on a clear downside break of the immediate support line, near 1.1055 by the press time. Following that, an upward sloping support line from Wednesday, near 1.0965, could challenge the pair’s further downside.

    Alternatively, an upside clearance of the 100-EMA hurdle, around 1.1195 at the latest, could aim for the downward sloping resistance line from August 10, near 1.1455 now.

    If at all the GBP/USD buyers manage to cross the 1.1455 hurdle, the monthly high surrounding 1.1740 will be on their radar.

    GBP/USD: Four-hour chart

    Trend: Pullback expected

     

  • 04:42

    EUR/USD pares first weekly gain in three around 0.9800 ahead of EU/US inflation data

    • EUR/USD retreats from the short-term key hurdle to snap two-day uptrend.
    • Market sentiment remains dicey but yields stay firmer amid fears of recession.
    • ECB hawks battle upbeat Fedspeak to defend the recovery despite the energy crisis in the bloc.
    • Firmer US inflation gauge may add strength to the pullback moves.

    EUR/USD takes offers to renew intraday low around 0.9800 as bulls take a breather after a two-day uptrend around the weekly top. Even so, the major currency pair remains positive on a weekly basis, snapping a two-week downtrend. The quote’s latest weakness could be linked to the cautious sentiment ahead of the key inflation numbers from Eurozone and the US.

    Eurozone is up for publishing the preliminary inflation data for September. The CPI and HICP figures become all the more important after Germany refreshed the record high during the previous day and the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are ready to inflate the benchmark rates even at the risk of a recession.

    Among the key policymakers were Olli Rehn, Mario Centeno and Pablo Hernandez de Cos, who have recently backed the idea of increasing the benchmark rate by 0.75%. “ECB policymakers voiced more support on Thursday for another big interest rate hike as inflation in the euro zone's biggest economy hit double digits, blasting past expectations and heralding another record reading for the bloc as a whole,” said Reuters in this regard.

    It should be noted that Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 10% in September compared to 7.9% in August and the market expectation of 9.4. Additionally, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the nation, the European Central Bank's (ECB) preferred gauge of inflation, jumped to 10.9% during the stated month compared to 8.8% prior and 10% expected. Furthermore, Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) declined to 93.7 in September versus the market expectation of 95 and 97.3 in August. Also, the Consumer Confidence for the said month matched -28.8 forecasts and prior readings.

    On the other hand, the US economic calendar has the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August, expected 4.7% YoY versus 4.6% prior.

    Also read: US August PCE Inflation Preview: Will it trigger a dollar correction?

    It should be that the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 193K for the period ended on September 24, versus the 209K previous (revised from 213K) and the market expectation of 215K, also might have weighed on the DXY. The US Jobless Claims slumped to the lowest levels since April.

    While respecting the data, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard praised the slump in the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and mentioned, "We will push inflation to 2% in a reasonable compact time frame." Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said on Thursday that they are not yet at a point where they could start thinking about stopping interest rate hikes, as reported by Reuters. Additionally,  San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects to raise rates further in coming meetings, and early next year.

    Elsewhere, the chatters over China’s inability to tame recession woes and the UK’s fears of more economic pain, as well as the Russia-EU tussles, weigh on the EUR/USD prices and the market’s sentiment.

    Amid these plays, US 10-year Treasury yields remain firmer around 3.80% during the seven-week uptrend despite reversing from the 12-year on Wednesday while the S&P 500 Futures fade recovery from the multi-month low.

    To sum up, the EUR/USD pair is portraying the typical pre-data caution and can witness further downside if the US inflation figures offer a positive surprise.

    Technical analysis

    EUR/USD recently eased from the four-month-old support-turned-resistance, as well as the downward sloping resistance line from September 13, amid impending bull cross on the MACD and steady RSI (14). As a result, the buyers stay hopeful but need validation from 0.9830.

    On the contrary, the pair’s pullback moves may initially aim for the 10-DMA support near 0.9795 before targeting the 0.9690-75 support area.

     

  • 04:30

    Commodities. Daily history for Thursday, September 29, 2022

    Raw materials Closed Change, %
    Silver 18.815 -0.34
    Gold 1660.36 0.1
    Palladium 2200.03 2.47
  • 04:22

    USD/CNH Price Analysis: Snaps two-day downtrend around 7.1300 after China PMIs

    • USD/CNH crosses 200-HMA for the first time in two weeks after mixed China PMI data.
    • NBS Manufacturing PMI improved but Non-Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI eased in September.
    • Immediate bearish channel challenges upside momentum targeting the fresh record high.
    • MACD, RSI conditions join the key HMA breakout to favor buyers.

    USD/CNH picks up bids to add gains to the first daily positive in three after China’s mixed activity data for September, published early Friday. That said, the quote renews intraday high around 7.1300 by the press time.

    China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 versus 49.6 expected and 49.4 prior while the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.6 compared to 52.0 market forecasts and 52.6 prior readings.  Further, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.1 during the stated month versus 49.5 expected and prior.

    In addition to the unimpressive activity numbers but a clear rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s September 19-28 advances and the run-up beyond the 200-HMA for the first time in 13 days also lure USD/CNH buyers.

    However, a downward sloping trend channel from Wednesday restricts immediate USD/CNH recovery, with its resistance line standing near 7.1630 by the press time.

    Should the quote rises past 7.1630, the odds of witnessing a rally towards the recent record high near 7.2660 can’t be ruled out.

    Alternatively, pullback moves may initially aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden ratio, around 7.0950.

    Following that, the stated nearby channel’s support line, close to 7.0650, could challenge the USD/CNH pair’s further weakness.

    USD/CNH: Hourly chart

    Trend: Further upside expected

     

  • 04:04

    AUD/JPY fades recovery around 94.00 as firmer yields join indecisive China PMIs

    • AUD/JPY grinds higher to defend the first weekly gain in three.
    • China’s PMIs came in mixed for September, statistics from Japan came in firmer.
    • Yields remain firmer amid hawkish central banks, recession woes.
    • Risk aversion may challenge the recovery moves amid a cautious session.

    AUD/JPY buyers flirt with the 94.00 threshold while snapping a two-week downtrend during Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair cheers firmer yields while paying a little heed to the mixed data from Australia’s biggest customer China, as well as firmer economics from Japan.

    That said, China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 versus 49.6 expected and 49.4 prior while the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.6 compared to 52.0 market forecasts and 52.6 prior readings.  Further, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.1 during the stated month versus 49.5 expected and prior.

    On the other hand, Japan reported a decline in the Unemployment Rate to 2.5% in August while Industrial Production reversed the previous contraction of 2.0% with 5.1% YoY growth. Further, Retail Trade also improved to 4.1% YoY compared to 2.8% expected and 2.4% prior.

    It’s worth noting that the US 10-year Treasury yields remain firmer around 3.80% during the seven-week uptrend despite reversing from the 12-year on Wednesday. The fears surrounding global recession and the hawkish commentary from the key central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB), despite the recently downbeat economics and supply crunch fears, propel the bond coupons. Additionally, the chatters over China’s inability to tame recession woes and the UK’s fears of more economic pain due to the latest fiscal policies should have favored the US Treasury yields.

    It should be observed that the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) likely inability to defend the yen despite recent market intervention appears to also favor the AUD/JPY prices. That said, the cautious optimism in the market, portrayed via mildly bid S&P 500 Futures seem to offer additional support to the risk-barometer pair.

    Having witnessed the reaction to a slew of data from Australia and Japan, the AUD/JPY traders may remain cautious ahead of the key data, namely Eurozone inflation for September and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August.

    Technical analysis

    As the RSI (14) and the MACD both flash bearish signals, AUD/JPY upside appears difficult. Also challenging the bulls is a convergence of the 50-day EMA, the previous support line from May and a three-week-old resistance confluence, near 94.80.

    Meanwhile, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s May-September upside, respectively near 93.00 and 91.60, could challenge the downside moves.

     

  • 03:47

    NZD/USD aims to capture 0.5800 on upbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI data

    • NZD/USD is aiming to smash the critical hurdle of 0.5800 as Caixin Manufacturing PMI soars.
    • China’s surprise purchase of government bonds will also strengthen kiwi exports.
    •  A fifth consecutive 50 bps rate hike is expected by the RBNZ.

    The NZD/USD pair has dropped marginally below 0.5730 in the Tokyo session after facing barricades around 0.5750. The asset is marching towards 0.5800 on upbeat China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. The economic data has landed at 50.1, higher than the expectations and the prior release of 49.5.

    It is worth noting that New Zealand is a leading trading partner of China and upbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI data has a significant impact on NZ's fiscal balance sheet.

    Apart from that, the Chinese Finance ministry is planning to issue government bonds worth 2.5 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter, as reported by Reuters. The decision is supposed to safeguard the markets from any further turmoil as the economy is not expected to display a decent growth rate amid zero tolerance for Covid-19 spread and the real estate crisis.  It will also support the kiwi export data.

    Next week, investors will focus on the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Reuters poll on RBNZ rate hike forecast claims a fifth consecutive rate hike by 50 basis points (bps). A fifth half-a-percent rate hike by the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr will push the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.5%. It would be worth watching whether an OCR above 3% is sufficient to anchor the galloping inflation.

    Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is expected to decline further as it is facing barricades around 112.00 in the Tokyo session. The DXY has weakened after a consecutive decline in the US growth rate by 0.6%. Going forward, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) data will be keenly focused. The sentiment data is expected to remain steady at 58.5.

     

  • 03:47

    China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 48.1 and below prior and expectations, AUD offered

    As reported by Reuters, China's factory activity contracted at a sharper pace in September as strict COVID lockdowns disrupted production and dampened sales, a private sector survey showed on Friday.

    ''Weakening global demand for Chinese goods also weighed heavily on the manufacturing sector, with new export orders shrinking at the fastest pace in four months.

    The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell more than expected to 48.1 in September from 49.5 in August, below the 50-point which marks separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.

    Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected the reading would be unchanged from August.

    Surveyed firms attributed the COVID-19 epidemic as the greatest impact factor, the private survey said.''

    AUD/USD is falling towards the lowest levels of the session following the PMIs today, down to a low of 0.6489 at the time of writing. 

  • 03:46

    China Caixin Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.1, below expectations (49.5) in September

  • 03:43

    AUD/USD jostles with 0.6500 hurdle on mixed China PMI data, US inflation eyed

    • AUD/USD stays defensive around yearly low after September’s activity data from the key customer.
    • China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to 50.1, Non-Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI eased.
    • Market sentiment remains sluggish as traders await important statistics.
    • Risk-aversion, likely stronger US inflation can please bears.

    AUD/USD remains sidelined around 0.6500 as it pokes the resistance line of a bullish wedge during Friday’s Asian session. Even so, the quote remains on the way to printing the third weekly loss, as well as the biggest monthly downside in three. That said, the Aussie pair recently struggled amid mixed activity data for September from Australia’s biggest customer China.

    That said, China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 versus 49.6 expected and 49.4 prior while the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.6 compared to 52.0 market forecasts and 52.6 prior readings. Further, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.1 during the stated month versus 49.5 expected and prior.

    Also read: Chinese Manufacturing PMI beats and supports AUD on the margin, services fall

    Other than the mixed data at home, fears of global recession and recently softer Aussie inflation data also challenge the AUD/USD buyers. “Investors added another cycle of selling after Fed officials gave no indication about the U.S central bank changing its view on rate hikes, leaving investors skittish about a potential recession in the country,” said Reuters.

    On Thursday, the first monthly CPI data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) mentioned the headline price pressure eased in August to 6.8% from 7.0% in July.

    Earlier in the day, a Reuters poll suggested that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to hike its interest rate by another 50 basis points in October in its most aggressive tightening cycle since 1990s to curb red-hot inflation.

    It should be noted that the softer US inflation expectations might have favored the AUD/USD buyers the previous day. That said, the US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, dropped to the lowest levels since early 2021.

    Having witnessed the dismal reaction to China PMIs, AUD/USD traders may await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August, expected 4.7% YoY versus 4.6% prior. Should the US inflation gauge print upbeat numbers, the AUD/USD prices may witness further downside.

    Technical analysis

    Successful trading above 0.6500 could help AUD/USD to pare weekly loss as it will confirm the three-week-old falling wedge bullish chart pattern. Meanwhile, 0.6440 and the latest multi-month low near 0.6365 might return to the seller’s radar in case of a fresh downside. That said, MACD and RSI (14) join the downbeat fundamentals to challenge the bulls.

     

  • 03:38

    Chinese Manufacturing PMI beats and supports AUD on the margin, services fall

    China's PMIs have arrived as follows:

    • China's September official composite PMI 50.9
    • China's September official services PMI falls to 50.6 vs 52.6 in August
    • China's September official manufacturing PMI at 50.1 (Reuters poll 49.6) vs 49.4 in August

     Ongoing COVID-19 risks are set to continue impacting the official services PMI in September.

    The Caixin manufacturing PMI is also expected to confirm the broad-spread nature of the slowdown (market forecast: 49.5).

    AUD/USD is attempting to move higher on the data but has come under pressure again, balancing at 0.6497. 

    Why it matters to traders?

    The monthly manufacturing PMI is released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) on the last day of every month. The official PMI is released before the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which makes it even more of a leading indicator, highlighting the health of the manufacturing sector, considered as the backbone of the Chinese economy. The data is of high relevance for the financial markets throughout several asset classes, given China’s influence on the global economy.

     

  • 03:37

    Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY): 9.3% (August) vs 9.1%

  • 03:31

    China Caixin Manufacturing PMI above expectations (49.5) in September: Actual (50.1)

  • 03:31

    China Non-Manufacturing PMI below expectations (52) in September: Actual (50.6)

  • 03:30

    Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) in line with expectations (0.8%) in August

  • 03:30

    China NBS Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1, above expectations (49.6) in September

  • 03:26

    EUR/JPY establishes above 142.00 despite upbeat Japanese data, German Retail Sales in focus

    • EUR/JPY has stabilized above 142.00 on soaring hawkish ECB bets.
    • The yen bulls have failed to capitalize on upbeat Japanese economic data.
    • Eurozone Consumer Confidence has remained in line with estimates and German Retail Sales may plunge ahead.

    The EUR/JPY pair has displayed a juggernaut rally after overstepping the round-level hurdle of 140.00. The asset is moving north vertically and has established above the immediate resistance of 142.00 in the Asian session. The cross has not sensed any selling pressure despite the release of upbeat Japanese economic data.

    Japan’s Unemployment Rate has justified the estimates of 2.5% and remained lower than the prior release of 2.6%. While the Jobs/Applicants Ratio improved to 1.32 vs. the forecasts of 1.30 and the former print of 1.29.

    Adding to that, the Retail Sales data has improved significantly to 4.1%, higher than the forecast of 2.8% and the prior figure of 2.4%. The retail demand seems upbeat in the Japanese economy, which is a result of the continuous injection of liquidity into the economy by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The BOJ believes that the economy needs stimulus to revive the growth rate recorded in the pre-pandemic era. Also, Industrial Production has accelerated to 5.1% from a decline of 2% on an annual basis.  

    Meanwhile, the shared currency bulls are performing well after the hawkish commentary by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. The ECB is expected to tighten its policy further as it has come with specified guidance. The ECB will hike its interest rate by 125 basis points (bps) in the coming monetary policy meeting.

    On the economic front, the Eurozone Consumer Confidence has remained in line with the estimates and the prior release but is still worse at -28.8. Going forward, the German Retail Sales data will catch the spotlight. The economic data is expected to decline firmly by 5.1% vs. the prior release of a decline of 2.6% on an annual basis.

     

     

  • 03:18

    USD/CNY fix: 7.0998 vs. the previous fix of 7.1107

    In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 7.0998 vs. the previous fix of 7.1107, the prior close of 7.1210, and the estimated 7.0951.

    About the fix

    China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland.

    The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled.

    Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

  • 03:18

    USD/CAD Price Analysis: Inverted hammer, fortnight-long support line defends bulls above 1.3650

    • USD/CAD holds onto the previous day’s rebound, picks up bids of late.
    • Bullish candlestick formation, recovery from short-term support line favor buyers.
    • Weekly resistance line, overbought RSI challenge upside momentum.
    • 10-DMA adds to the downside filters before reversing the uptrend.

    USD/CAD defends the third consecutive weekly gain at around 1.3685 during Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Loonie pair justifies the previous day’s bullish candlestick formation, as well as a rebound from the 13-day-old support line, amid the price-positive MACD signals.

    With this, the quote is well-set to challenge the immediate hurdle, namely the weekly resistance line surrounding 1.3740, before aiming for the recently flashed multi-month high near 1.3835.

    It’s worth noting that the 1.3800 could act as an extra resistance that could join the overbought RSI (14) to challenge the USD/CAD buyers.

    If at all the pair remains firmer past 1.3835, the odds of witnessing a rally towards the 1.4000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out.

    Meanwhile, pullback moves need to provide a daily closing below the stated support line, near 1.3660 by the press time.

    Even so, the 10-DMA level around 1.3560 could challenge the USD/CAD bears before giving them control.

    Overall, USD/CAD remains on the bull’s radar but the upside momentum appears limited.

    USD/CAD: Daily chart

    Trend: Further upside expected

     

  • 03:01

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD marches towards $1,680 ahead of US PCE Inflation

    • Gold price is accelerating towards $1,680.00 as the DXY has extended its losses.
    • A consecutive decline in the US GDP numbers weakened the DXY.
    • US core PCE price index is expected to advance by 10 bps to 4.7%.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) is aiming to test the critical hurdle of $1,680.00 amid ongoing weakness in the US dollar index (DXY). The precious metal extended its recovery after sustaining above $1,650.00 and is expected to remain in the grip of bulls ahead. The yellow metal concluded its corrective move towards $1,640.00 and got strengthened after the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained in line with the projections.

    The US GDP has consecutively declined by 0.6% on an annualized basis. It seems that the consequences of the bigger rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have started showing their true colors. Bets were rising over a possible recession situation in the US but got vanished after the commentary from San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly.

    Fed policymaker believes that the central bank is needed to drop focusing on generating more employment to tame the galloping inflation and not a recession, as reported by Reuters.

    Going forward, the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data will remain in focus. The economic data is expected to improve to 4.7% vs. the prior release of 4.6%. A higher-than-expected figure could propel the DXY to sum up its correction sooner.

    Gold technical analysis

    Gold prices have entered the prior balanced area, which is placed in a range of $1,653.30-1,692.00 on an hourly scale. The balanced area indicates the highest auction region where most of the trading activity took place.

    It is worth noting that the gold prices have crossed the 50-and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) while the EMAs have not displayed a crossover yet. This signals the strength of the upside momentum.

    Adding to that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which illustrates a continuation of upside momentum.

    Gold hourly chart

     

  • 02:53

    GBP/USD pause on the way to 1.1200 ahead of UK GDP, US PCE Inflation

    • GBP/USD struggles to extend the first weekly gain in three, grinds higher of late.
    • BOE policymakers’ aggression, sync between the UK government and the “Old Lady” favor buyers.
    • Downbeat US inflation expectations, quarter-end positioning adds strength to the pair’s rebound.
    • UK Q2 GDP may confirm recession woes and probe the bears, US inflation could also weigh on prices.

    GBP/USD seesaws around 1.1160-55 as buyers brace for the first weekly gain in three during Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the cable pair cheers the broad US dollar weakness, as well as mixed concerns surrounding the US dollar ahead of the key data from the UK and the US.

    BOE Economist Huw Pill amplified pessimism surrounding Britain as the policymaker said, “It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that fiscal easing announced will prompt a significant and necessary monetary policy response in November.” Recently, UK Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch stated that the chancellor is `working well' with the Bank of England.

    With this, the “Old Lady,” as the BOE is known sometimes, appears set for the strong rate hike cycle, which in turn propels the GBP/USD prices.

    On the other hand, US Dollar Index (DXY) remains on the back foot at around 111.90 while snapping a two-week uptrend. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies fails to justify the recently hawkish Fedspeak and the broad recession fears amid downbeat inflation expectations. This makes today’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August, expected 4.7% YoY versus 4.6% prior, important for the greenback traders.

    Also important to watch will be the final readings of the UK’s second quarter (Q2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to confirm -0.1% initial forecasts.

    Given the upbeat expectations from inflation and fears of economic slowdown in the UK, the GBP/USD could pare the latest gains if the scheduled data matches the forecasts.

    Also read: US August PCE Inflation Preview: Will it trigger a dollar correction?

    Technical analysis

    A clear upside break of a two-week-old resistance line, now support around 1.1035, needs to cross the 100-EMA hurdle surrounding the 1.1200 threshold, to keep GBP/USD buyers hopeful. It’s worth noting that the RSI is approaching the overbought territory and hence the upside potential appears limited.

     

  • 02:38

    RBNZ to carry on with 50 bps hike in October to break inflation trend – Reuters poll

    Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver its fifth half-point interest rate hike on Wednesday and do the same in November in an attempt to stem the tide of rising inflation, the latest Reuters poll of economists predicted.

    Key findings

    All 24 economists in the Sept. 26-29 Reuters poll forecast the RBNZ would hike its official cash rate by 50 basis points to 3.50% at its Oct. 5 meeting.

    Nearly all economists have brought forward rate hike expectations from last month's poll and a majority, 17 of 22, now expected the OCR to reach 4.00% or above by end-2022, 50 basis points higher than August's poll.

    Current poll medians showed rates would remain unchanged at 4.00% until end-2023, not far from the RBNZ's projected terminal rate of 4.10%.

    But a strong minority of nearly 40% of economists expected rates to be higher than the predicted peak rate.

    Inflation was predicted to remain well above the RBNZ's target range of 1-3% until at least end-2023. It was expected to average 6.5% this year and then slip to 3.5% in 2023, higher than the 6.0% and 2.8% predicted in July.

    Economists also cautioned the risks to their inflation projection were skewed more towards faster price growth.

    Also read: NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls eye a run beyond the 'HotW' and eye 0.58 the figure

  • 02:34

    RBA to hike rates by 50bp in oct, peak rate pushed higher (RTRS poll)

    Australia's central bank will hike interest rates by another half-point on Tuesday and increase borrowing costs further than previously thought in its most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1990s to arrest red hot inflation, a Reuters poll showed.

    Meanwhile, a new monthly measure of Australian consumer prices on Thursday showed annual inflation eased slightly in August from July thanks to a steep drop in petrol prices, although inflation excluding volatile items accelerated. The job market has also remained tight with vacancies dipping slightly from all-time highs, adding to the case that the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely lift the official cash rate by another half point to 2.85% at its policy meeting on Tuesday.

    AUD/USD has been able to accumulate a bid on a softer US dollar of late, rallying towards the high of the week near 0.6535.

     

     

  • 02:30

    Stocks. Daily history for Thursday, September 29, 2022

    Index Change, points Closed Change, %
    NIKKEI 225 248.07 26422.05 0.95
    Hang Seng -85.01 17165.87 -0.49
    KOSPI 1.64 2170.93 0.08
    ASX 200 93 6555 1.44
    FTSE 100 -123.81 6881.59 -1.77
    DAX -207.73 11975.55 -1.71
    CAC 40 -88.14 5676.87 -1.53
    Dow Jones -458.13 29225.61 -1.54
    S&P 500 -78.57 3640.47 -2.11
    NASDAQ Composite -314.13 10737.51 -2.84
  • 02:22

    US Dollar Index eyes the first weekly loss in three near 112.00, US PCE Inflation in focus

    • US Dollar Index grinds lower around the weekly bottom.
    • US inflation expectations slumped to 18-month low, Q2 GDP confirmed 0.6% contraction.
    • Hawkish Fedspeak, recession woes and geopolitical concerns challenge DXY bears.
    • Firmer prints of Fed’s preferred inflation gauge could renew upside momentum.

    US Dollar Index (DXY) remains on the back foot around 111.90 while bracing for the first weekly loss in three during Friday’s Asian session.

    In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies fails to justify the recently hawkish Fedspeak and the broad recession fears amid downbeat inflation expectations. This makes today’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August, expected 4.7% YoY versus 4.6% prior, important for the greenback traders.

    On Thursday, the final readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) confirmed the initial forecasts of -0.6%. It should be noted that the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which dropped to 193K for the period ended on September 24, versus the 209K previous (revised from 213K) and the market expectation of 215K, also might have weighed on the DXY. The US Jobless Claims slumped to the lowest levels since April.

    Following the data, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard praised the slump in the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and mentioned, "We will push inflation to 2% in a reasonable compact time frame." Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said on Thursday that they are not yet at a point where they could start thinking about stopping interest rate hikes, as reported by Reuters. Additionally,  San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects to raise rates further in coming meetings, and early next year.

    Elsewhere, recession woes amplified as the other key central banks, including the Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB), also remain aggressive despite the recently downbeat economics and supply crunch fears. Additionally, the chatters over China’s inability to tame recession woes and the UK’s fears of more economic pain due to the latest fiscal policies should have favored the DXY but could not.

    The reason could be linked to the downbeat US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, which dropped to the lowest levels since early March 2021.

    Amid these plays, the Wall Street benchmarks reversed all of the gains made on Wednesday while the Treasury yields recovered. Even so, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains and weigh on the DXY amid a sluggish session ahead of the key US data.

    Also read: US August PCE Inflation Preview: Will it trigger a dollar correction?

    Technical analysis

    The DXY’s first daily closing below the 10-DMA, around 112.40 by the press time, in two weeks direct the sellers towards the previous resistance line near 111.45.

     

  • 02:20

    USD/JPY remains lackluster below 144.50 despite upbeat Japanese data

    • USD/JPY is oscillating below 144.50 as yen has failed to capitalize on Japanese data.
    • A broader improvement has been witnessed in employment, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production data.
    • The improved risk appetite of investors is weakening the DXY.

    The USD/JPY pair has not responded as expected despite the release of upbeat Japanese employment, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production data. The asset is displaying back-and-forth moves in a range of 144.30-144.84 in the Tokyo session. The major is displaying any signs of a decisive move and is awaiting a potential trigger.

    Japan’s Unemployment Rate has remained in line with the estimates of 2.5% but lower than the prior release of 2.6%. While the Jobs/Applicants Ratio has improved to 1.32 vs. the projections of 1.30 and the former print of 1.29.

    Meanwhile, the Retail Sales data has improved significantly to 4.1%, higher than the forecast of 2.8% and the prior figure of 2.4%. The retail demand seems upbeat in the Japanese economy, which is a result of the continuous injection of liquidity into the economy by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The BOJ believes that the economy needs stimulus to revive the growth rate recorded in the pre-pandemic era. Also, Industrial Production has accelerated to 5.1% from a decline of 2% on an annual basis.

    BOJ’s continuation of an ultra-dovish monetary policy is constantly resulting in the depreciation of yen. Now, the recent announcement of an unscheduled bond-buying program has weakened yen further.

     Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is looking to establish below 112.00 amid an improvement in the risk appetite of the market participants. In today’s session, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) data will remain in focus. The sentiment data is expected to remain steady at 59.5.

     

     

     

  • 02:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Thursday, September 29, 2022

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.6498 -0.33
    EURJPY 141.806 1.1
    EURUSD 0.98168 0.87
    GBPJPY 160.64 2.45
    GBPUSD 1.11208 2.21
    NZDUSD 0.57243 -0.1
    USDCAD 1.36788 0.51
    USDCHF 0.97522 -0
    USDJPY 144.461 0.24
  • 02:09

    EUR/USD Price Analysis: Eyes further upside as bulls attack 0.9830 key hurdle

    • EUR/USD grinds higher around the weekly top, pokes key resistance confluence.
    • Previous support line from July, three-week-old resistance line constitute immediate hurdle.
    • The year 2001 high, descending support line from May challenge bears.
    • Looming bull cross on the MACD, steady RSI favor buyers.

    EUR/USD jostles with the key 0.9830 resistance confluence as bulls struggle to defend the first weekly gains in three during Friday’s Asian session.

    In doing so, the major currency pair battles the four-month-old support-turned-resistance, as well as the downward sloping resistance line from September 13.

    It should be noted, however, that the impending bull cross on the MACD and steady RSI (14) favor the buyers.

    That said, a clear upside break of the 0.9830 hurdle will propel the EUR/USD prices towards the 50-DMA, around 1.0035 by the press time. Also acting as the upside filters is the 1.0000 parity level and the monthly high near 1.0200.

    Meanwhile, the pair’s pullback moves may initially aim for the 10-DMA support near 0.9795 before targeting the 0.9690-75 support area.

    Following that, the year 2001 peak and the latest bottom, respectively around 0.9600 and 0.9535, could challenge the bears.

    If at all the EUR/USD pair remains weak past 0.9535, the downward sloping support line from May, near 0.9455, will be in focus.

    EUR/USD: Daily chart

    Trend: Further upside expected

     

  • 02:05

    NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls eye a run beyond the 'HotW' and eye 0.58 the figure

    • NZD/USD is breaking towards the 'High of the Week' (HotW) around 0.5755.
    • The hourly W-formation is a reversion pattern and a peak formation within the head and shoulders on the 4-hour time frame.
    • NZD/USD remains bullish while being supported by a rising trendline.

    NZD/USD is breaking fresh highs for the week as we approach the Tokyo open. The price has rallied to a session high of 0.5750 so far in a firm push through key technical resistance and the bulls will be liming up for a retest of the structure as support for an optimal entry in order to target higher levels yet. The following is an analysis of the daily and 4-hour charts, concluded on the hourly in order to pinpoint where the opportunities could be for traders in the day ahead. 

    NZD/USD daily chart

    The daily chart has run into the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance which is currently being broken at the time of writing. This leaves prospects of a strong correction towards the next layer of key structure near a 62% ratio as follows:

    NZD/USD H4 chart

    The bird is breaking through the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders which is bullish in itself. This is on the back of a correction to a 61.8% Fibo adding additional conviction to the upside bias. The bulls can have their sights set on 0.58 the figure/ A break of 0.5830 will open risk to 0.5850. 

    NZD/USD H1 chart

    Drilling down to an hourly perspective, this is where bulls will be looking for a discount:

    The W-formation is a reversion pattern and a peak formation within the head and shoulders on the 4-hour time frame, supported by a rising trendline. Should the trendline hold tests near a 50% mean reversion, this could attract a spur of demand from the bulls. However, that depends on the high of the week holding initial tests neat 0.5755. The bias will remain to the upside so long as the 0.5680s structure holds up. 

  • 01:58

    US inflation expectations drop to 18-month low ahead of Core PCE Price Index

    US inflation expectations remain pressured on Thursday, despite the rush to risk safety and hawkish Fedspeak, which in turn propelled the US Treasury bond yields.

    That said, the inflation precursors, as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, dropped to the lowest levels since early March 2021.

     While noting the details, the longer-term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level since March 01, 2021, whereas the 5-year benchmark slumped to the lowest levels since February 2021 with the latest figures being 2.19% and 2.78% respectively.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) justifies the downbeat inflation expectations while marking another negative day to refresh the weekly low of around 111.95.

    Moving on, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August, expected 4.7% YoY versus 4.6% prior, will be crucial for the market players to watch for fresh impulse.

    Also read: Forex Today: Gear up for more market turmoil

  • 01:57

    Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) up to 1.4% in August from previous 0.8%

  • 01:56

    Japan Industrial Production (YoY): 5.1% (August) vs -2%

  • 01:56

    Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above expectations (0.2%) in August: Actual (2.7%)

  • 01:56

    Japan Large Retailer Sales: 3.8% (August) vs 2.8%

  • 01:51

    EUR/GBP struggles to defend 0.8800 ahead of EU inflation, UK GDP

    • EUR/GBP remains pressured around weekly low, snaps four-week uptrend.
    • Bulls cheer strong comments from BOE’s Pill, failed to respect hawkish ECBspeak, record high German inflation.
    • UK GDP will be eyed for confirming recession woes and can pare weekly losses of the pair.
    • Record high inflation in Eurozone can add strength to the corrective bounce.

    EUR/GBP holds lower ground near 0.8810 as it braces for the first weekly loss in five during Friday’s Asian session. The cross-currency pair’s latest weakness contrasts with the UK’s economic pessimism amid hawkish comments from the Bank of England (BOE) policymakers. In doing so, the quote also ignores the European Central Bank (ECB) members’ aggression.

    BOE Economist Huw Pill amplified pessimism surrounding Britain as the policymaker said, “It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that fiscal easing announced will prompt a significant and necessary monetary policy response in November.” Recently,  UK Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch stated that the chancellor is `working well' with the Bank of England.

    On the other hand, most of the ECB policymakers, including Olli Rehn, Mario Centeno and Pablo Hernandez de Cos, have recently backed the idea of increasing the benchmark rate by 0.75%. “ECB policymakers voiced more support on Thursday for another big interest rate hike as inflation in the euro zone's biggest economy hit double digits, blasting past expectations and heralding another record reading for the bloc as a whole,” said Reuters in this regard.

    It should be noted that Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 10% in September compared to 7.9% in August and the market expectation of 9.4. Additionally, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the nation, the European Central Bank's (ECB) preferred gauge of inflation, jumped to 10.9% during the stated month compared to 8.8% prior and 10% expected. Furthermore, Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) declined to 93.7 in September versus the market expectation of 95 and 97.3 in August. Also, the Consumer Confidence for the said month matched -28.8 forecasts and prior readings.

    Against this backdrop, the Wall Street benchmarks reversed all of the gains made on Wednesday while the Treasury yields recovered.

    Moving on, the final readings of the UK’s second quarter (Q2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the first impressions of Eurozone inflation data for September will be crucial for the EUR/GBP pair traders. As grim expectations from the scheduled data are favoring the pair buyers, any surprises can extend the latest weakness of the quote.

    Technical analysis

    A three-week-old ascending trend line joins the 21-DMA to highlight the 0.8750 level as crucial downside support for the EUR/GBP traders to watch during the pair’s further downside. Alternatively, the 10-DMA restricts immediate recovery moves near 0.8845.

     

  • 01:50

    Japan Retail Trade (YoY) above expectations (2.8%) in August: Actual (4.1%)

  • 01:45

    GBP/JPY sees establishment above 161.00 despite upbeat Japan Employment data

    • GBP/JPY has reacted much to the upbeat Japanese employment data.
    • Japan’s jobless rate has matched the expectations at 2.5% while Job/Applicants has improved to 1.32.
    • UK Truss is closely working with the BOE to stabilize financial markets.

    The GBP/JPY pair dropped below 161.00 in the early Tokyo session after failing to sustain above the same. The intermittent hurdles seem to lack strength and will fade sooner just after the market participants will jump to capitalize on the minor correction.

    Meanwhile, an upbeat Japan’s employment data has not made much impact on the cross.  The Unemployment Rate has remained in line with the estimates of 2.5% but lower than the prior release of 2.6%. While the Jobs/Applicants Ratio has improved to 1.32 vs. the projections of 1.30. 

    This week, the cross has displayed a juggernaut rally from a low of 148.57 after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced an unscheduled bond-buying program.

    The BOJ sees the necessity of infusing liquidity into the economy as the nation has still not revived from the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. Investors have been dumping the Japanese yen for a prolonged period amid its ultra-dovish monetary policy and now more leakage of liquidity has vanished after the impact of BOJ’s intervention in the currency markets. It seems that only a ‘neutral’ stance on interest rates could save the yen from further carnage.

    On the UK front, the Bank of England (BOE) also announced a surprise bond-purchase program to stabilize financial markets. A 13-day bond-buying program has been announced in which the BOE will purchase GBP 5 billion worth of long-dated bonds each day. The surprise BOE move has still kept it solid against the yen bulls.

    On Thursday, UK PM Liz Truss cited that they are working closely with the Bank of England. "We have seen difficult markets around the world, I am clear that the government has done the right thing,", as reported by Reuters.

    In today’s session, the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data will be of utmost importance. The annual and quarterly data is expected to remain steady at 2.9% and -0.1% respectively.

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • 01:30

    Japan Unemployment Rate in line with forecasts (2.5%) in August

  • 01:30

    Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio above expectations (1.3) in August: Actual (1.32)

  • 01:25

    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Recovery needs validation from 94.80, China PMIs

    • AUD/JPY braces for the first weekly gain in three, grinds higher of late.
    • Convergence of 50-day EMA, 13-day-old resistance line and previous support line challenge the upside moves.
    • Bearish MACD signals, downbeat RSI favor sellers, bulls have a bumpy road ahead.

    AUD/JPY grinds higher around 94.00, on the way to snapping a two-week downtrend, during Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair pays little heed to the downbeat oscillators while staying above the key Fibonacci retracement levels.

    It’s worth noting that the RSI (14) and the MACD both flash bearish signals but a convergence of the 50-day EMA, the previous support line from May and a three-week-old resistance confluence, near 94.80, appears a tough nut to crack for the AUD/JPY bulls.

    Also acting as an upside hurdle is June’s peak near 96.90, a break of which could quickly propel the pair prices towards the recently flashed multi-day high near 98.60.

    Alternatively, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the AUD/JPY pair’s May-September upside, respectively near 93.00 and 91.60, could challenge the downside moves.

    In a case where AUD/JPY remains bearish past 91.60, the odds of witnessing a south-run towards the 90.00 threshold can’t be ruled.

    Above all, today’s release of China’s official and Caixin PMIs for September and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August, expected 4.7% YoY versus 4.6% prior, are crucial for AUD/JPY pair.

    Also read: AUD/USD pierces 0.6500 hurdle ahead of China PMIs, US PCE Inflation

    AUD/JPY: Daily chart

    Trend: Limited upside expected

     

  • 01:10

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Hovers around 1.1130s, after testing 1.1200

    • During the week, the British pound has recovered 3.84% from the last week’s loss.
    • The GBP/USD failure to clear 1.1200 sent the pair sliding toward current exchange rate levels.
    • If it clears the 1.1050, it could pave the way towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at around 1.0880s.

    The GBP/USD rallies sharply, trimming some of the last week’s losses, closing to the 1.1200 figure after being at the brink of testing parity when the pound fell to its lowest at 1.0356. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.1133, 0.25% above its opening price, as the Asian session begins.

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    From a daily chart perspective, the GBP/USD is downward biased, despite the astonishing recovery in the week. Due to last Friday’s 600 pip volatile session, a mean reversion move was expected. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), exited from oversold conditions at 41.59 but shifted almost horizontally, meaning buyers’ momentum is dissipating.

    Given the previously mentioned scenario and the GBP/USD failure to clear the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1210, a fall towards 1.1050, the 50% Fibonacci level, drawn from the high/low of 1.1738/1.0356, is on the cards.

    Therefore, the GBP/USD first support would be the 1.1100 mark. Once cleared, the next support would be the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1050, which, once hurdle, could pave the way for a re-test of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0884.

    GBP/USD Key Technical Levels

     

  • 01:05

    USD/CAD Price Analysis: Smart money in play so keep eyes on 50-EMA, 1.3600 a key support

    • The smart money has been channelizing after a pullback move from 1.3600.
    • USD/CAD is hovering around the 50-EMA, therefore, the explosion will be crucial.
    • A bearish range shift by the RSI (14) will trigger a downside momentum.

    The USD/CAD pair is declining firmly in the early Tokyo session after failing to cross the 1.3750 hurdles on Thursday. Broadly, the asset has turned sideways after a pullback move from 1.3600. The major is oscillating in a 1.3656-1.3756 range.

    On an hourly scale, the asset witnessed a steep fall after sensing exhaustion in the uptrend. The major was on a spree of making higher highs while the momentum oscillator, Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) made a lower high, which indicates a loss in the upside momentum. And, the downside bias got strengthened after dropping below Tuesday’s low at 1.3640.

    It is worth noting that the pullback move after hitting a low of 1.3600 seems to conclude where investors have poured smart money by supporting the loonie bulls. The asset has formed a consolidation range around the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3684 and a breakdown of the same will result in sheer weakness in the counter.

    Also, the 200-EMA at 1.3564 is looking turn flat, which indicates a loss of momentum in the longer-term trend.

    The RSI (14) has shifted into the 40.00-60.00 range and a breakdown into the bearish trajectory of 20.00-40.00 will trigger a downside momentum.

    A decisive break below the round-level support placed at 1.3600, which is Wednesday’s low will drag the asset towards the psychological support at 1.3500, followed by September 19 high at 1.3344.

    On the flip side, a break above Thursday’s high at 1.3755 will drive the asset towards Wednesday’s high at 1.3833. A breach of the latter will result in a fresh two-year high at 1.4000.

    USD/CAD hourly chart

     

     

  • 01:00

    South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1%, below expectations (3.2%) in August

  • 01:00

    South Korea Industrial Output Growth came in at -1.8% below forecasts (1.3%) in August

  • 01:00

    South Korea Service Sector Output above forecasts (0.1%) in August: Actual (1.5%)

  • 00:59

    WTI retreats towards $81.00 as hawkish central banks, recession woes battle OPEC+ chatters

    • WTI pares the first weekly gains in five as traders await more clues.
    • Supply crunch fears from Russia, chatters over OPEC+ output cut favor buyers.
    • Concerns surrounding economic slowdown, aggressive rate hikes challenge upside momentum.
    • Risk catalysts are the key, China PMIs, US inflation may also entertain oil traders.

    WTI crude oil prices remain pressured towards $81.00 after retreating from the weekly top surrounding $82.50 the previous day. In doing so, the black gold portrays the oil market’s indecision amid mixed clues while bracing for the first positive week in five.

    Among the key catalysts recession woes and supply crunch fears gained the major attention while the US dollar weakness may have been ignored as traders brace for the key catalysts.

    That said, Reuters quotes anonymous sources to report that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, have started to discuss a potential output cut for the next meeting. Also likely to have favored the oil buyers could be Russia’s readiness to annex more parts of Ukraine.

    On the other hand, recession woes amplified as majority of the central banks remain aggressive despite the recently downbeat economics and supply crunch fears. Additionally, the chatters over China’s inability to tame recession woes and the UK’s fears of more economic pain due to the latest fiscal policies appear negative for the energy benchmark.

    That said, the commodity traders are in dilemma and hence will pay close attention to the upcoming activity data for September from the world’s largest commodity user China. Following that, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August, expected 4.7% YoY versus 4.6% prior, will be important for fresh directions.

    Also read: US August PCE Inflation Preview: Will it trigger a dollar correction?

    Above all, risk catalysts and central bankers’ comments could direct the quote, mostly towards the south, amid a likely volatile Friday.

    Technical analysis

    WTI crude oil’s failure to cross the monthly resistance line, around $81.80 by the press time, joins challenges fundamental challenges to the price to tease sellers.

     

  • 00:41

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD marches past $1,650 on falling wedge breakout, US PCE inflation eyed

    • Gold price picks up bids on confirming a bullish chart formation.
    • Firmer yields, downbeat equities failed to tame XAU/USD buyers amid softer DXY.
    • Geopolitical risks join recession woes, hawkish central bankers to probe gold buyers.
    • Fed’s favorite inflation data can challenge the upside momentum on firmer readings.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) braces for the first weekly gain in three as the metal buyers poke $1,663 after witnessing a confirmation of the falling wedge bullish chart pattern the previous day. In doing so, the yellow metal cheers softer US dollar but fails to respect the market’s grim conditions.

    That said, US Dollar Index (DXY) marked another negative day to refresh the weekly low of around 111.95. The greenback’s gauge versus the major six currencies dropped after the final readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) confirmed the initial forecasts of -0.6%.

    It should be noted that the firmer prints of the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which dropped to 193K for the period ended on September 24, versus the 209K previous (revised from 213K) and the market expectation of 215K, also might have weighed on the DXY. The US Jobless Claims slumped to the lowest levels since April.

    While respecting the data, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard praised the slump in the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and mentioned, "We will push inflation to 2% in a reasonable compact time frame." Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said on Thursday that they are not yet at a point where they could start thinking about stopping interest rate hikes, as reported by Reuters.

    In addition to the hawkish Fedspeak, fears emanating from the UK, Russia and China also challenge the sentiment and the XAU/USD bulls but couldn’t chain the prices.

    Comments from Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill amplified pessimism surrounding Britain as the policymaker said, “It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that fiscal easing announced will prompt a significant and necessary monetary policy response in November.” On the other hand, record high German inflation, Russia’s readiness to annex more parts of Ukraine and the chatters over China’s inability to tame recession woes were also challenging the risk appetite.

    Amid these plays, the Wall Street benchmarks reversed all of the gains made on Wednesday while the Treasury yields recovered.

    Given the recently surprising gold price strength, may be due to the quarter-end positioning, the traders will pay close attention to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for September, expected 4.7% YoY versus 4.6% prior. Should the actual outcome arrives stronger, the XAU/USD prices may witness hardships in rising.

    Also read: US August PCE Inflation Preview: Will it trigger a dollar correction?

    Technical analysis

    Contrary to the grim fundamentals, gold price confirms a three-week-old falling wedge bullish chart pattern recently. The yellow metal’s run-up also takes clues from the steady RSI (14) and an impending bull cross on the MACD, which in turn suggests further advances of the bullion.

    That said, the 21-DMA hurdle surrounding $1,681 could challenge the immediate upside ahead of the seven-week-old resistance line, near $1,693.

    In a case where the XAU/USD remains firmer past $1,693, it can aim for the theoretical target of the wedge breakout, i.e. near $1,780, wherein the monthly high and the late August peak, respectively around $1,75 and $1,765, can test the bulls.

    Alternatively, pullback remains elusive beyond $1,647, a break of which could defy the bullish bias and drag the quote towards the $1,600 threshold.

    It should be noted that a downward sloping support line from mid-May, around $1,568 by the press time, could restrict the XAU/USD weakness past $1,600.

    Gold: Daily chart

    Trend: Further upside expected

     

  • 00:27

    USD/CHF declines towards 0.9700 amid weaker DXY, US Michigan CSI eyed

    • USD/CHF is expected to fall to near 0.9700 as DXY has lost its appeal on weaker US GDP data.
    • An expectation of a slowdown in the pace of hiking rates by the Fed is weakening the DXY.
    • In today’s session, US Michigan CSI is seen to stabilize at 59.5.

    The USD/CHF pair is eyeing more weakness in the Asian session amid a drop below the critical support of 0.9750. The asset is declining towards the round-level support of 0.9700 as the US dollar index (DXY) is going through severe pain on expectations of a slowdown in the pace of hiking interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

    Currently, the Fed is busy preparing a monetary policy roadmap for the remaining 2022. Fed policymakers are of the view that bigger rate hikes are still in vision as price pressures have not shown a significant decline yet.

    In case of bigger rate hike announcements in the first week of November and the mid of December when the Fed has scheduled policy meetings, the deviation from a terminal rate of 4.6% will remain extremely low. This will force the Fed to calm down the rate hike spree and stay with the rates for a longer period till the observation of a decline in inflationary pressures for several months.

    Apart from that, weaker US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data brought weakness to the DXY. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a decline in the extent of economic activities consecutively by 0.6% on an annualized basis. Going forward, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) data will remain in focus. The sentiment data is expected to remain steady at 59.5.

    Meanwhile, the Swiss franc bulls are awaiting the release of the Real Retail Sales data. The economic data is expected to improve by 3.6% vs. the prior improvement of 2.4% on an annual basis. This is going to delight the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to sound hawkish on interest rates in the fourth quarter monetary policy unhesitatingly.

     

  • 00:11

    New Zealand Building Permits s.a. (MoM) came in at -1.6% below forecasts (2%) in August

  • 00:05

    New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence unchanged at 85.4 in September

  • 00:04

    AUD/USD pierces 0.6500 hurdle ahead of China PMIs, US PCE Inflation

    • AUD/USD picks up bids to cross the resistance line of a falling wedge bullish formation.
    • US dollar pullback trimmed losses even as risk-aversion, downbeat equities weighed on prices.
    • Softer Aussie inflation, geopolitical fears and hawkish Fedspeak keep bears hopeful.
    • China’s PMI could please bears on downbeat outcome as recession woes intensify.

    AUD/USD struggles to justify the market’s risk-off mood as it renews its intraday high around 0.6515, after reversing most of the previous day’s losses amid the US dollar’s pullback. The risk-barometer pair, however, stayed on the bear’s radar as fears emanating from China, Russia and the UK joined downbeat equities and softer inflation numbers at home.

    US Dollar Index (DXY) marked another negative day to refresh the weekly low of around 111.95. The greenback’s gauge versus the major six currencies dropped after the final readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product confirmed the initial forecasts of -0.6%.

    It should be noted, however, that the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 193K for the period ended on September 24, versus the 209K previous (revised from 213K) and the market expectation of 215K.

    Following the data, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard praised the slump in the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and mentioned, "We will push inflation to 2% in a reasonable compact time frame." Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said on Thursday that they are not yet at a point where they could start thinking about stopping interest rate hikes, as reported by Reuters.

    At home, the first monthly CPI data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the headline price pressure eased in August to 6.8% from 7.0% in July. The same joins the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recently cautious statements to challenge the AUD/USD buyers after the data release.

    Elsewhere, the escalating energy crisis in Europe, Russia’s readiness to annex more parts of Ukraine and the chatters over China’s inability to tame recession woes were the extra challenges to the market sentiment, as well as to the AUD/USD pair.

    Amid these plays, the Wall Street benchmarks reversed all of the gains made on Wednesday while the Treasury yields recovered.

    Moving on, China is up for publishing the September month PMIs, the official one and also from Caixin, while the market forecasts aren’t that grim, the actual outcome will be crucial amid calls of recession in Australia’s biggest customer.

    Technical analysis

    A three-week-old falling wedge bullish chart pattern keeps AUD/USD buyers hopeful even if the RSI (14) and MACD joins the bearish fundamentals. That said, a successful upside break of the 0.6500 threshold appears necessary for the bulls whereas the 0.6440 and the latest multi-month low near 0.6365 can lure bears during the fresh downside.

     

  • 00:04

    EUR/USD accelerates towards 0.9900 as DXY extends losses, German Retail Sales eyed

    • EUR/USD is marching towards 0.9900 as the current upside momentum is extremely strong.
    • The DXY has surrendered 112.00 on a consecutive decline in the US GDP by 0.6%.
    • German Retail Sales are expected to remain vulnerable ahead.

    The EUR/USD pair is aiming to recapture the critical resistance of 0.9900 as it has comfortably established above 0.9800 and the upside momentum is extremely firmer. The asset extended its gains on Thursday after surpassing the hurdle of 0.9750 as the risk-on market profile strengthened further amid more weakness in the US dollar index (DXY).

    The DXY concluded its pullback move and resumed its downside journey after failing to sustain above 113.00. The asset picked offers after the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data remained in line with the estimates and the prior release. The US economy has reported an annualized de-growth of 0.6% in the second quarter. Apart from that core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data expanded further by 4.7%, against the estimates and the prior release of 4.4%.

    Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester cited on Thursday that they are not yet at a point where they could start thinking about stopping interest rate hikes, as reported by Reuters. If interest rates are set to rise further, the US economic fundamentals should be supportive to bear the consequences of policy tightening. And, a consecutive reading of a negative growth rate is not a measure of support for the US economy.

    On the Eurozone front, German Retail Sales data will hog the limelight. The economic data is expected to decline firmly by 5.1% vs. the prior release of a decline of 2.6% on an annual basis. In times when price pressures are accelerating in the German region, a decline in Retail Sales data indicates an extreme vulnerability in the retail demand. A higher-than-expected decline in the economic data could dampen the mood of Eurozone investors.

    As European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is looking to hike interest rates by 125 basis points in the coming monetary policy meetings, weaker demand will not let them hike rates unhesitatingly.

     

  • 00:01

    Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD fails to hold above $19.00, falls towards $18.80 on risk-off mood

    • Silver price stumbled on risk-aversion as traders turned to cash.
    • Fed’s Bullard: Traders understood the Fed’s commitment to tackle inflation.
    • NATO expressed that Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipeline attack was caused by sabotage.

    Silver price slides for the second time in the week amid falling US Treasury bond yields as Fed officials’ “aggressive” tone, the Europe energy crisis, and UK’s mini-budget presented by Kwasi Kuarteng, UK’s finance minister under Liz Truss government, shifted sentiment sour. Therefore, the XAG/USD is trading at $18.81 a troy ounce, 0.40% below its opening price.

    On Thursday, Fed officials led by Regional Fed Presidents, with Cleveland’s Mester and St. Louis Bullard, reiterated that the Federal Reserve is compromised to tackle inflation, even though it could trigger a recession. James Bullard said traders understood that the Fed was serious about achieving the price stability mandate and added the need for higher rates for a “longer period.”

    In the meantime, Loreta Mester commented that inflation is the primary concern, added that there is no “case for slowing down,” and foresees rates to peak at around 4.6%.

    At the time o typing, the San Francisco Fed Mary Daly said there’s no need to tap the US economy into a recession to curb inflation while adding that “additional interest rates are necessary and appropriate.”

    In the meantime, NATO said that the leaks of the Nord Stream pipelines were caused by sabotage and noted that “NATO is committed to deter and defend against hybrid attacks,” and “any deliberate attack against Allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response.”

    Although news of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines spurred a jump in energy prices, WTI and Brent’s crude oil sustained losses of 0.46% and 0.54%, respectively.

    Aside from this, the UK’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss, doubled down on its tax-cut budget, saying that she was willing to take “controversial” decisions, though recent reports by the Guardian said that she would hold an emergency meeting with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on Friday.

    Given the fundamental backdrop, XAG/USD prices slid as traders seeking safety preferred to liquidate its positions and braced for cash. Portraying the previously mentioned, US Treasuries remained contained during the session, while the US Dollar Index registered losses of 0.69%, down at 111.040.

    Silver (XAG/USD) Key Technical Levels

     

30 września 2022
Najważniejsze wiadomości
KWOTOWANIA
Instrument Oferta Zamówienie Czas
AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
XAGEUR
XAGUSD
XAUUSD

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Teletrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd świadczy obecnie usługi transgraniczne w obrębie państw EOG (z wyjątkiem Belgii) w ramach systemu paszportowego MiFID oraz w wybranych krajach trzecich. TeleTrade nie świadczy usług mieszkańcom ani obywatelom USA.

Treść powyższych analiz jest tylko i wyłącznie wyrazem osobistych poglądów jej autora i nie stanowi rekomendacji w rozumieniu przepisów Rozporządzenia Ministra Finansów z dnia 19 października 2005 r. w sprawie informacji stanowiących rekomendacje dotyczące instrumentów finansowych lub ich emitentów. (Dz. U. z 2005 r. Nr 206, poz. 1715). Analiza nie spełnia wymogów stawianych rekomendacjom w rozumieniu w/w ustawy. Przeczytaj nasze pełne oświadczenie.

Kontrakty CFD są złożonymi instrumentami i wiążą się z dużym ryzykiem szybkiej utraty środków pieniężnych z powodu dźwigni finansowej. 76.41% rachunków inwestorów detalicznych odnotowuje straty w wyniku handlu kontraktami CFD u niniejszego dostawcy. Zastanów się, czy rozumiesz, jak działają kontrakty CFD, i czy możesz pozwolić sobie na wysokie ryzyko utraty pieniędzy.
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