Major US stock indexes ended the trading session in different directions, as investors analyzed the Fed chairman’s speech, recent inflation indicators, as well as conflicting reports on US-Chinese trade negotiations.
In a speech to the United Economic Committee of the US Congress, Fed Chairman Powell said Fed rates are unlikely to change as long as the economy continues to grow. “We believe that the current position of monetary policy is likely to remain appropriate as long as the incoming economic information is broadly consistent with our forecasts of moderate economic growth, a strong labor market and inflation close to our symmetric 2 percent target” - said Powell. However, he warned that problems remain, such as low inflation, weaker foreign economic growth and trade tensions.
A report released by the Department of Labor showed that US consumer prices recovered more than expected in October, and core inflation rose, which, along with easing trade tensions and fears of a recession, supports the Fed's signal that it will not continue to cut interest rates in the near future. According to the report, the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October. This was the largest increase since March. In the 12 months to October, the index rose 1.8% after rising 1.7% in September. Economists had forecast growth of 0.3% in October and growth of 1.7% year on year.
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported citing informed sources that the United States and China have sharp disagreements about tariffs, which prevents them from completing the first phase of the deal. According to the publication, negotiations have reached an impasse due to the unresolved issue of whether the US should cancel existing tariffs or only those that should take effect on December 15th. The message came after US President Trump told the New York Economic Club on Tuesday that China “deadly wants to” bargain. Meanwhile, Trump did not provide any details about the negotiations. The US president also blamed previous US administrations for allowing China to “trick” trade.
Most DOW components completed trading in the red (16 out of 30). Outsiders were shares of Dow Inc. (DOW; -2.77%). The biggest gainers were The Walt Disney Company (DIS; + 7.30%).
Most S&P sectors recorded a decline. The conglomerate sector showed the largest drop (-0.6%). The utilities sector grew the most (+ 1.0%).
At the time of closing:
Dow 27,783.59 +92.10 +0.33%
S&P 500 3,094.04 +2.20 + 0.07%
Nasdaq 100 8,482.10 -3.99 -0.05%
|00:00||Australia||Consumer Inflation Expectation||November||3.6%||3.2%|
|00:30||Australia||Changing the number of employed||October||14.7||15|
|02:00||China||Retail Sales y/y||October||7.8%||7.9%|
|02:00||China||Industrial Production y/y||October||5.8%||5.4%|
|02:00||China||Fixed Asset Investment||October||5.4%||5.4%|
|04:30||Japan||Tertiary Industry Index||September||0.4%||-0.6%|
|07:00||Germany||GDP (QoQ)||Quarter III||-0.1%||-0.1%|
|07:00||Germany||GDP (YoY)||Quarter III||0.4%||0.5%|
|07:30||Switzerland||Producer & Import Prices, y/y||October||-2%||-1.9%|
|09:30||United Kingdom||Retail Sales (YoY)||October||3.1%||3.7%|
|09:30||United Kingdom||Retail Sales (MoM)||October||0%||0.2%|
|10:00||Eurozone||Employment Change||Quarter III||0.2%||0.2%|
|10:00||Eurozone||GDP (QoQ)||Quarter III||0.2%||0.2%|
|10:00||Eurozone||GDP (YoY)||Quarter III||1.2%||1.1%|
|10:30||U.S.||FOMC Member Quarles Speaks|
|13:30||U.S.||Continuing Jobless Claims||1689||1687|
|13:30||Canada||New Housing Price Index, MoM||September||0.1%||0.1%|
|13:30||Canada||New Housing Price Index, YoY||September||-0.3%|
|13:30||U.S.||PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y||October||2%||1.5%|
|13:30||U.S.||PPI excluding food and energy, m/m||October||-0.3%||0.2%|
|13:30||U.S.||Initial Jobless Claims||211||215|
|14:10||U.S.||FOMC Member Clarida Speaks|
|14:10||U.S.||FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks|
|15:00||U.S.||Fed Chair Powell Testimony|
|16:00||U.S.||Crude Oil Inventories||November||7.929||1.6|
|17:00||U.S.||FOMC Member Williams Speaks|
|17:30||Switzerland||Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks|
|21:30||New Zealand||Business NZ PMI||October||48.4||48.4|
The AUD/USD pair is trading modestly lower on Wednesday. After the beginning of the American session, it recovered from the two-week low it reached at 0.6820 and rose to 0.6833. Still, the bias points to the downside in the pair.
Price actions remained quiet following U.S. inflation data and also after the release of the remarks of Chairman Powell to the Joint Economic Committee. He mentioned interest rates are unlikely to change as long as economic growth continues. The US CPI showed mixed numbers, not significantly away from expectations.
The U.S. Dollar is posting mix results across the board. The DXY is flat, hovering around 98.30, after reaching earlier a fresh monthly high. US yields today are retreating and limit the decline in AUD/USD.
The AUD/USD continues to move within a descendant channel in the short-term. A consolidation on top of 0.6850 would invalidate the bias and favor a consolidation or a recovery. The next resistance is seen at 0.6880.
On the flip side, the bearish pressure is likely to prevail as long as AUD/USD holds under 0.6835. Below daily lows, the immediate support lies at 0.6805/10 and then 0.6780.
The USD/CAD pair rose to its highest level in a month at 1.3270 but lost its traction during the American trading hours as the commodity-related loonie gathered strength on recovering crude oil prices. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.3254, adding 0.17% on a daily basis.
The Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Mohammad Barkindo, on Wednesday said the fundamentals of the global economy was still strong and noted that there was no sign of a global economic recession. Barkindo further added that oil demand figures in 2020 have the potential for an upside swing to provide a boost to crude oil prices.
After dropping all the way down to $56.16 earlier in the day, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained traction and was last seen trading at $57.30, adding nearly 1% on a daily basis.
On the other hand, the U.S. Dollar Index ignored the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chairman Powell's comments on the economic outlook and extended its sideways grind near the 98.30-mark, allowing the CAD's market valuation to continue to impact the pair's action. The only data from the US on Wednesday revealed that annual inflation in October, as measured by the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), ticked down to 2.3% and missed the market expectation of 2.4% but had little to no impact on the USD.
Analysts at TD Securities expect the Fed to keep rates on hold in the near term, but to ease further in 2020 as economic growth continues to moderate.
U.S. stock-index futures traded lower on Wednesday as investors digested the latest CPI data and mixed news around U.S.-China trade talks, while awaiting the testimony from the Fed Chair later today.
Today's Change, points
Today's Change, %
Timme Spakman, an economist covering International Trade at ING, suggests that there's still a chance that the UK could see an abrupt end to the transition period in December 2020, which wouldn't just be bad for trade in goods as there's a risk that barriers to trade in services could more than double.
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALTRIA GROUP INC.
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ
American Express Co
Cisco Systems Inc
Citigroup Inc., NYSE
Exxon Mobil Corp
Ford Motor Co.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE
General Electric Co
General Motors Company, NYSE
Home Depot Inc
International Business Machines Co...
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase and Co
Merck & Co Inc
Procter & Gamble Co
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ
Twitter, Inc., NYSE
Verizon Communications Inc
Wal-Mart Stores Inc
Walt Disney Co
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ
NIKE (NKE) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays; target $111
Cisco Systems (CSCO) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts
Apple (AAPL) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; target $285
Alcoa (AA) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill; target $21
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill; target $14
Department announced on Wednesday the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4
percent m-o-m in October, after being unchanged in the previous month. That was
the highest monthly inflation since March.
Over the last 12 months, the CPI rose 1.8 percent y-o-y last month, following a 1.7 percent m-o-m gain in the 12 months through September.
Economists had forecast the CPI to increase 0.3 percent m-o-m and 1.7 percent y-o-y in the 12-month period.
According to the report, the energy index climbed 2.7 percent m-o-m in October after recent monthly declines and accounted for more than half of the increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index; the gains in the indexes for medical care (+1.0 percent m-o-m), for recreation (+0.7 percent m-o-m), and for food (+0.2 percent m-o-m) also contributed.
Meanwhile, the core CPI excluding volatile food and fuel costs advanced 0.2 percent m-o-m in October, following a 0.1 percent m-o-m gain in the previous month.
In the 12 months through October, the core CPI rose 2.3 percent, decelerating from +2.4 percent in the 12 months ending September.
Economists had forecast the core CPI to rise 0.2 percent m-o-m and 2.4 percent y-o-y last month.
Analysts at TD Securities note that UK’s core inflation was on top of consensus at 1.7% y/y while headline CPI was a tenth below, although in line with the BoE's forecast of 1.5% y/y.
Aline Schuiling, the senior economist at ABN AMRO, notes that Germany’s ZEW indicator for economic expectations jumped higher in November as it rose to -2.1, up from -22.8 in November.
FX Strategists at UOB Group note AUD/USD is still facing a period of sideline trading for the time being.
Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume
in the U.S. surged 9.6 percent in the week ended November 8, following a 0.1
percent decrease in the previous week.
According to the report, applications to purchase a home went up 5.1 percent, while refinance applications jumped 12.9 percent.
Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate rose to 4.03 percent from 3.98 percent.
“Positive data on consumer sentiment, and growing optimism surrounding the U.S. and China trade dispute, were behind last week’s rise in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate,” noted Joel Kan, the MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. “With rates still in the 4% range, we continue to expect to see moderate growth in refinance activity in the final weeks of 2020.”
Bert Colijn, a senior Eurozone economist at ING, suggests that cautious growth in Eurozone production for the second month in a row indicates that the downturn is moderating, but it seems too early to say we've definitely hit bottom.
FX Strategists at UOB Group believe USD/JPY could have charted a short-term top in the mid-109.00s.
Investment and trade growth at the moment are reliant on a deal between the U.S. and China, the secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) told CNBC.
“Yesterday, President Donald Trump said ‘Yes, maybe we’re close to a deal with China’ — we’re betting on that,” Angel Gurria told.
“The rate of growth of trade has come down from 5.5% in 2017 to basically flat. In fact, maybe as we speak, trade is going negative, it’s contracting. Investment — as a consequence because of the uncertainty — went from 5% growth to about 1% growth now and it’s slowing down further.
“Therefore growth has dropped precipitously over a short period of time,” he said.
Gurria told that “if we continue to take decisions along the lines of more protectionism or more problems with trade etc, if there are more tensions, then the consequences can be even worse.”
Then, in its “Interim Economic Outlook,” the organization warned that “global economy has become increasingly fragile and uncertain, with growth slowing and downside risks continuing to mount.” It said economic prospects were weakening for both advanced and emerging economies, “and global growth could get stuck at persistently low levels without firm policy action from governments.”
Nick Kounis, head of financial markets research at ABN AMRO, points out that ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos earlier this month talked up the ECB’s easing options.
“He said that ‘If necessary, we could cut interest rates further. We could increase the volumes in our asset purchase programme. We could further improve the conditions for our targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the TLTROs. We have definitely not exhausted all our options. We have scope to take further action, and we will take further action should it become necessary’. However, he added two caveats. He said that the ‘negative side effects (of low interest rates) are becoming ever more pronounced’. In addition, he repeated the ECB’s call for fiscal easing, saying that ‘with interest rates very low for longer, fiscal policy would have a much bigger impact on the economy than would otherwise be the case. Although the ECB judged that recession risk was low, he noted that ‘the real threat at present is an extended phase of extremely low growth, below potential.’ At the same time ‘inflation expectations have recently shown a marked decline.’ Finally, he still judged that risks to the outlook were to the downside despite better news on Brexit and the trade conflict, though the risks were now ‘slightly less’. Overall, we do not expect further easing at the next ECB meeting, though we do think that the central bank will act again early next year as growth and inflation disappoint.”
According to estimates from Eurostat, in September 2019 compared with August 2019, seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28. Economists had expected a 0.3% decrease in the euro area. In August 2019, industrial production increased by 0.4% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU28. In September 2019 compared with September 2018, industrial production decreased by 1.7% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU28. Economists had expected a 2.3% decrease in the euro area.
In the euro area in September 2019, compared with August 2019, production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 1.0% and capital goods by 0.6%, while production of durable consumer goods fell by 0.7%, energy by 0.8% and intermediate goods by 0.9%. In the EU28, production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.9% and capital goods by 0.6%, while production of durable consumer goods fell by 0.1%, energy by 0.4% and intermediate goods by 0.7%.
In the euro area in September 2019, compared with September 2018, production of intermediate goods fell by 3.9%, energy by 2.6%, capital goods by 1.4% and durable consumer goods by 0.8%, while production of nondurable consumer goods rose by 1.6%. In the EU28, production of intermediate goods fell by 3.3%, energy by 2.8% and capital goods by 1.0%, while production of durable consumer goods rose by 0.7% and non-durable consumer goods by 2.4%.
According to the report from Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month inflation rate was 1.5% in October 2019, down from 1.7% in September 2019. Economists had expected a 1.6% increase.
The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.5% in October 2019, down from 1.7% in September 2019. The largest downward contribution to change in the CPIH 12-month inflation rate, between September and October 2019, came from electricity, gas and other fuels as a result of changes to the energy price cap. Further downward contributions from furniture, household equipment and maintenance; and recreation and culture, were partially offset by rises in clothing and footwear prices.
ONS also said, the headline rate of output inflation for goods leaving the factory gate was 0.8% on the year to October 2019, down from 1.2% in September 2019. Economists had expected a 0.9% increase.
The growth rate of prices for materials and fuels used in the manufacturing process was negative 5.1% on the year to October 2019, down from negative 3.0% in September 2019. Petroleum made the largest downward contribution to the change in the annual rate of output inflation. Crude oil provided the largest downward contribution to the change in the annual rate of input inflation.
Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the US headline inflation to remain unchanged at 1.7% y/y in October, partly aided by an increase in energy prices, while core inflation should decline a tenth to 2.3% y/y.
“In particular, we expect core goods inflation to recover m/m, but for core services inflation to slow to 0.2% m/m after four straight increases at 0.3%. Conversely, we expect Chair Powell to largely reiterate the FOMC policy message that monetary policy and the economy remain "in a good place" at the start of his two-day visit to the Hill on Wednesday.”
Moody’s decision to downgrade India’s ratings outlook was “erroneous,” veteran emerging markets investor Mark Mobius said.
Mobius, who has long been bullish on India, said he doesn’t agree with the ratings agency’s assessment that the country’s growth will be subdued. Moody’s said the change in its outlook for India’s ratings from “stable” to “negative” partly reflected lower government and policy effectiveness in addressing weaknesses in the economy.
“I think Moody’s call was erroneous, I don’t think it was called for because I see tremendous growth coming in India going forward ... I believe that a lot of the reforms are going to really begin to kick in and have a big impact on the economy going forward,” he told CNBC.
India is undergoing a significant slowdown. Its economic growth hit a six-year low in the April-to-June period, during which the economy grew 5% from a year ago. An ongoing crisis in the finance sector has hamstrung lending and impacted investments, while recent policy reforms have left small-and-medium businesses reeling.India’s economy is also struggling to create enough jobs for its workforce.
According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, Powell’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress at 4pm GMT will garner some attention today.
“It would be a surprise if Powell deviates much from his post-FOMC press conference in which he emphasised that the easing done to date has supported the economy and helped offset some of the external risks stemming from slowing growth. Our US economists do, however, expect the Chair to stress that, given that the balance of the incoming economic data has largely held in, it would take a “material reassessment” of the outlook for the Committee to consider further rate cuts. The House Intelligence Committee will also hold its first public hearings in their impeachment inquiry of President Trump.”
Danske Bank analysts point out that in the US and the UK, CPI figures for October are due out and will be key economic release for the markets.
“US CPI core has surprised on the upside in recent months, but we do not expect this to be the beginning of a new trend given the low inflation expectations and look for an unchanged inflation rate at 2.4%. In the euro area, markets will look out for a decision by US President Trump on whether or not he will impose European car tariffs. Latest hints from US Commerce Secretary Ross and EU Commission President Juncker suggested that Trump will postpone his decision yet again into next year, after 'good conversations' with car manufacturers about potential production relocations. Should the tariffs be implemented, it would be a major hit for the already fragile European manufacturing sector. Figures out today will likely confirm that the industrial recession has extended into Q3, although it seems to have stopped intensifying. Fed chair Powell will address the Joint Economic Committee of Congress today. We expect him to reiterate that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate in the absence of further deterioration in the data.”
Danske Research discusses GBP outlook and maintains a cautious bias but sees a scope for EUR/GBP to recover towards 0.8750 over the coming weeks.
"EUR/GBP went below 0.86 (to 0.857) on news that Nigel Farage suggests he will be standing down some candidates in the upcoming election. This reduces the perceived risk of yet another indecisive parliament in favour of a conservative," Danske notes.
"We continue to stay on the cautious side of the GBP and expect continued uncertainty to eventually push EUR/GBP higher, targeting 0.875," Danske adds.
Global oil demand growth is expected to slow from 2025 as fuel efficiency improves and the use of electrified vehicles increases but is unlikely to peak in the next two decades, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
The Paris-based IEA said in its annual World Energy Outlook for the period to 2040 that demand growth would continue to increase even though there would be a marked slowdown in the 2030s.The agency's central scenario - which incorporates existing energy policies and announced targets - is for demand for oil to rise by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) on average every year to 2025, from 97 million bpd in 2018. Demand is then seen increasing by 0.1 million bpd a year on average during the 2030s to reach 106 million bpd in 2040.
"There is a material slowdown after 2025, but this does not lead to a definitive peak in oil use," the IEA said, citing increased demand from trucks and the shipping, aviation and petrochemicals sectors.
Oil use in passenger cars is, however, seen peaking in the late 2020s as drivers switch to electric vehicles. The IEA expects there will be 330 million electric cars on the road by 2040, up from an estimate of 300 million in last year's outlook. That would displace around 4 million bpd of oil use, it said, compared to the 3.3 million bpd forecast previously
Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, notes that the RBNZ has surprised the market by leaving the cash rate on hold at 1%.
“16 of 21 analysts were expecting a cut to 0.75% and OIS was ~75% priced for this outcome. We were one of the outliers. Rates were kept on hold because economic developments since the August statement did not warrant a change. The Bank indicated it is prepared to ease monetary policy further noting near term risks were tilted to the downside. On the forecasts, the OCR trough remained at 0.9%, GDP is expected to remain above 2%, the TWI was nudged lower and CPI lifted but a break above 2% not to be sustained. We sense there is no urgency from the Bank to cut the cash rate again anytime soon. We now pencil in the next RBNZ cut for May'20 and a placeholder cut for Q3/Q4'20. In the near term we expect NZ rates to underperform and the NZD to outperform. We have no curve positions on, but our models are telling us steepeners are the way to go.”
According to the report from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), consumer prices in Germany were up 1.1% in October 2019 compared with October 2018. Destatis also reports that the inflation rate - as measured by the consumer price index - decreased again (September 2019: +1.2%). Compared with September 2019, the consumer prices increased by 0.1% in October 2019.
Energy product prices fell by 2.1% from October 2018 to October 2019. The decrease in energy price thus accelerated (September 2019: -1.1%). The prices of food were up 1.1% in October 2019 compared with the same month a year earlier. The prices of goods (total) were 0.4% higher in October 2019 than in the same month a year earlier. Service prices rose much more strongly (+1.7%) than goods prices (+0.4%) from October 2018 to October 2019. The development of service prices thus had an upward effect on the inflation rate.
Compared with September 2019, the consumer price index rose just slightly by 0.1% in October 2019. Month-on-month price increases were recorded, for instance, for footwear (+2.3%) and for clothing (+0.9%). The prices of energy as a whole went down slightly (-0.1%), especially heating oil prices decreased (-0.8%). Food prices (total) fell 0.4% in October 2019 compared with the previous month. Vegetable prices, in particular, were down on a month earlier (-3.8%).
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1012
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 96243 contracts (according to data from November, 12) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5377);
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2844
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 6 is 29877 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (5210);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 31211 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (2302);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.04 versus 0.94 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 12
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
|Raw materials||Closed||Change, %|
|Index||Change, points||Closed||Change, %|
|00:30||Australia||Wage Price Index, q/q||Quarter III||0.6%||0.5%|
|00:30||Australia||Wage Price Index, y/y||Quarter III||2.3%||2.3%|
|01:00||New Zealand||RBNZ Interest Rate Decision||1%||0.75%|
|02:00||New Zealand||RBNZ Press Conference|
|09:30||United Kingdom||Producer Price Index - Output (MoM)||October||-0.1%||0%|
|09:30||United Kingdom||Producer Price Index - Input (YoY)||October||-2.8%||-4.9%|
|09:30||United Kingdom||Producer Price Index - Input (MoM)||October||-0.8%||-1.2%|
|09:30||United Kingdom||Producer Price Index - Output (YoY)||October||1.2%||0.9%|
|09:30||United Kingdom||Retail Price Index, m/m||October||-0.2%||-0.1%|
|09:30||United Kingdom||HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y||October||1.7%|
|09:30||United Kingdom||Retail prices, Y/Y||October||2.4%||2.2%|
|09:30||United Kingdom||HICP, m/m||October||0.1%||-0.1%|
|09:30||United Kingdom||HICP, Y/Y||October||1.7%||1.6%|
|10:00||Eurozone||Industrial Production (YoY)||September||-2.8%||-2.3%|
|10:00||Eurozone||Industrial production, (MoM)||September||0.4%||-0.3%|
|13:30||U.S.||CPI excluding food and energy, m/m||October||0.1%||0.2%|
|13:30||U.S.||CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y||October||2.4%||2.4%|
|16:00||U.S.||Fed Chair Powell Testimony|
|18:30||U.S.||FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks|
|23:50||Japan||GDP, y/y||Quarter III||1.3%||0.8%|
|23:50||Japan||GDP, q/q||Quarter III||0.3%||0.2%|
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