Notizie dai Mercati

3 febbraio 2023
  • 01:57

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bears eye a run to 1.2170, but watch out for the trap

    • GBP/USD bulls face the task of getting back over the line ahead of the NFP.
    • Bears are taking on a key layer of support with eyes to 1.2170.

    GBP/USD is on the defensive following a recent break of daily structure that led to a colossal sell-off in the London and New York equities opening hours. GBP/USD fell from a high of 1.2401 to a low of 1.2222 by the close of New York. Cable is pr4innting fresh lows in Tokyo of 1.2205 as traders look ahead to the Nonfarm Payrolls today in the US session while the price is destined for lower according to the following analysis:

    GBP/USD daily chart

    GBP/USD H1 chart

    On the hourly time frame, we can see that the bulls need to show up or face prospects of a breakout:

    With the test of the support, the question one needs to ask now is whether or not breakout traders chasing the move are about to get trapped:

     

  • 01:56

    Hong Kong SAR Nikkei Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (49.1) in January: Actual (51.2)

  • 01:54

    Australia Investment Lending for Homes: -4.4% (December) vs previous -3.6%

  • 01:54

    Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI came in at 51.1, below expectations (52.4) in February

  • 01:54

    Australia Home Loans below forecasts (-2.75%) in December: Actual (-4.3%)

  • 01:30

    Stocks. Daily history for Thursday, February 2, 2023

    Index Change, points Closed Change, %
    NIKKEI 225 55.17 27402.05 0.2
    Hang Seng -113.82 21958.36 -0.52
    KOSPI 19.08 2468.88 0.78
    ASX 200 9.9 7511.6 0.13
    FTSE 100 59.06 7820.16 0.76
    DAX 328.45 15509.19 2.16
    CAC 40 89.16 7166.27 1.26
    Dow Jones -39.02 34053.94 -0.11
    S&P 500 60.55 4179.76 1.47
    NASDAQ Composite 384.5 12200.82 3.25
  • 01:18

    USD/CHF Price Analysis: Struggles to extend recovery above 0.9140-0.9160 supply zone

    • USD/CHF is facing barricades in stretching its recovery move above the 0.9140-0.9160 supply zone.
    • A hawkish commentary from SNB Chairman failed to strengthen the Swiss Franc bulls.
    • The RSI (14) is struggling to scale into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00.

    The USD/CHF pair has rebounded after a corrective move to near 0.9115 in the early Asian session. The Swiss franc asset is struggling to stretch an upside rally further as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways ahead of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.

    Meanwhile, a hawkish commentary from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas J. Jordan failed to strengthen the Swiss Franc bulls. SNB’s Jordan confirmed more interest rate hikes as inflationary pressures are stronger than the central bank can tolerate. The SNB is ready to be active in currency markets when necessary.

    S&P500 futures have dropped sharply in the Asian session after a three-day winning spell, portraying a sheer decline in investors’ risk appetite. The 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped below 3.40%.

    USD/CHF displayed a stellar recovery after testing previous lows plotted from January 18 low at 0.9085 on an hourly scale. The recovery action was extremely solid as it pushed the asset above the 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 0.9120 and 0.9130 respectively in no time.

    The Swiss franc asset has reached near the supply zone in a 0.9140-0.9160 range. It would be optimal to observe the price action around the supply range before making any constructive position.

    Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is struggling to scale into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. An occurrence of the same will trigger the upside momentum.

    For further upside, the major needs to deliver a confident move above the 0.9140-0.9160 supply zone, which will drive the asset toward January 18 high at 0.9246 followed by January 24 high at 0.9280.

    On the flip side, a breakdown of Wednesday’s low at 0.9059 will drag the major toward 4 August 2021 low at 0.9018. A slippage below the latter will drag the asset further toward 10 May 2021 low at 0.8986.

    USD/CHF hourly chart

     

  • 01:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Thursday, February 2, 2023

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.70767 -0.82
    EURJPY 140.433 -0.85
    EURUSD 1.09098 -0.7
    GBPJPY 157.339 -1.32
    GBPUSD 1.22238 -1.21
    NZDUSD 0.64737 -0.39
    USDCAD 1.3314 0.22
    USDCHF 0.91316 0.52
    USDJPY 128.721 -0.12
  • 00:57

    CFTC weekly commitments of traders report will be delayed

    The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders' report will be delayed due to a ransomware attack on ION trading UK.

    The CFTC is an independent agency of the US government created in 1974 that regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, which include futures, swaps, and certain kinds of options.

     

  • 00:53

    USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls start to move in and eye 129.60

    • USD/JPY bulls eye the daily resistance zone where the 61.8% ratio meets the structure near 129.60.
    • Bears need to get below the critical 127.50s.

    USD/JPY was forced lower on a bout of US Dollar strength on Thursday in an extension of the drop from the mid-point of the 130s. The price has been supported in the midpoint of the 127s and has left no bias on the carts from an immediate directional perspective until the 129.50s or the aforementioned 127.40s are broken. However, there are prospects of a meanwhile correction for the day ahead as traders get set for the US Nonfarm Payrolls data as the last puzzle of the puzzle for this week. 

    USD/JPY daily chart

    The price has met the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 127.588 of the move from between the November 2021 swing lows of 112.53 and the October swing highs of 151.95 highs range which is acting as a support which the bears need to break.

    Zoomed in ... 

    The price is drifting out of the deciding channel having hit support and this leaves prospects of a phase of consolidation outside of the channel that could lead to accumulation for a move higher. 

    Zoomed in ... 

    In the meantime, a correction could be in order towards prior support that would be expected to act as a resistance zone where the 61.8% ratio meets the structure near 129.60.

  • 00:39

    AUD/JPY continues to oscillate around 91.00 despite upbeat Australian PMI

    • AUD/JPY has not shown a meaningful reaction to the upbeat Australian PMI data.
    • The RBA is expected to slowly push its OCR higher to 4.1% to tame soaring inflation.
    • The reason behind widening BoJ’s YCC band was to make them more sustainable.

    The AUD/JPY pair has shown a muted response to the upbeat Australian S&P Global PMI. The Services PMI has landed at 48.6 higher than the consensus and the prior release of 48.3. Also, the Composite PMI has scaled to 48.5 against the former release of 48.2. An absence of a contraction in economic activities despite rising interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could keep Australian inflationary pressures intact.

    The Australian Dollar is expected to remain volatile on Friday ahead of the release of the Caixin Services PMI (Jan). The economic data is seen at 47.3 lower than the former release of 48.0. A decline in the Services PMI could impact the Australian Dollar as Australia is a leading trading partner of China.

    Next week, the Australian Dollar will remain in the spotlight due to the interest rate decision announcement by the RBA. The Australian inflation rate has not shown a peak yet as it has shown a fresh high of 7.8% in the fourth quarter of CY2022. RBA Governor Philip Lowe might not have another option than to hike interest rates further.

    Analyst at Deutsche Bank Australia sees the RBA likely to drive the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.1%, citing the most recent inflation update of a 7.8% increase in the CPI, which was slightly higher than expected. “While the RBA will likely move more slowly in 2023 than it did in 2022, we now expect four more 25 basis point hikes this year: 25 basis points in each of February and March, and 25 basis points each at the May and August meetings” as reported by Forbes Advisor.

    On the Japanese Yen front, investors are awaiting the release of the Jibun Bank Services PMI for fresh cues. The economic data is seen steady at 52.4. The street is still confused about the rationale behind widening the Yield Curve Control (YCC) by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in its December monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, BoJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe is back on the wires this Thursday, noting that the “BoJ's Dec decision to widen band was a necessary step to make YCC more sustainable, but the move alone may have had the effect of weakening stimulus effect.”

     

  • 00:19

    USD/CAD Price Analysis: Buyers stepped at around the 200-DMA, lifting the pair back above 1.3300

    • USD/CAD tumbled to fresh YTD lows at around 1.3262 but recovered and reclaimed 1.3300.
    • USD/CAD Price Analysis: Upward biased above 1.3250.

    The USD/CAD recovered some ground, trimmed some of its Wednesday’s losses on Thursday, and rose by 0.19% after hitting a new YTD low at 1.3262. As the Asian session begins, the USD/CAD exchanges hands at 1.3313, below its opening price at the time of writing.

    USD/CAD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    Technically speaking, the USD/CAD is still upward biased, once achieved to stay above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3256. However, it should be said that once the USD/CAD tumbled below a three-month-old upslope support trendline, it failed to clear the latter, exposing the USD/CAD pair to some selling pressure.

    If the USD/CAD tumbles back below 1.3300, bears next target would be the 200-day EMA. Once broken, the USD/CAD could extend its losses towards 1.3200.

    As an alternate scenario, if the USD/CAD extends its recovery beyond the trendline mentioned above that passes around 1.3350, that would exacerbate a rally to 1.3400. If the bulls moved in, the USD/CAD following target would be the 100-day EMA at 1.3409, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3440, ahead of the January 19 swing high at 1.3520.

    USD/CAD Key Technical Levels

     

  • 00:13

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stares $1,900 as Fed rate pause rumors might offset post-US NFP

    • Gold price is eyeing more weakness to near $1,900.00 after an inventory distribution breakdown.
    • Higher US labor cost data could shrug off Fed’s policy tightening pause rumors ahead.
    • S&P500 has displayed a three-day winning streak despite further policy tightening by the Fed.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) nosedived to near $1,912.00 after a blockbuster recovery move from the US Dollar Index (DXY) on Thursday. The precious metal is staring at the round-level resistance of $1,900.00 as further downside looks possible ahead of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.

    The downside pressure in the USD Index led by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider a pause in the policy tightening as the US inflation is softening significantly has been shrugged off. The US labor cost index is still solid and carries the ability to dismantle the Fed policy pause context.

    In the US NFP gamut, Analysts at TD Securities expect a 220K increase in payroll and a modest increase in the Unemployment Rate to 3.6%. As per the consensus, Average Hourly Earnings data is seen at 4.9% vs. the prior release of 4.6% on an annual basis. While monthly data is seen steady at 0.3%. Led by exceeding labor demand against the supply, higher negotiation power in favor of job seekers could dent the price index declining trend, which can shrug off the rumors calling for a pause in the policy tightening pace by the Fed.

    Meanwhile, risk-perceived assets like S&P500 have displayed a three-day winning streak despite further policy tightening by the Fed.

    Gold technical analysis

    Gold price has demonstrated a perpendicular sell-off after an Inventory Distribution chart formation on an hourly scale. The inventory distribution in a minor range of $1,950-1,960 indicates a shift of inventory from institutional investors to retail participants. The 20-and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have delivered a bear cross at $1,927.80, which indicates more weakness ahead.

    In addition to that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates that the downside momentum has been triggered.

    Gold hourly chart

     

3 febbraio 2023
Focus del Mercato
Quotazioni
Simbolo Bid Ask Ora
AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
XAGEUR
XAGUSD
XAUUSD

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