FXStreet reports that Terence Wu, an FX strategist at OCBC Bank, notes that the 0.7150 supported the AUD/USD pair and expects the aussie to trade between 0.7150 and 0.7250 next sessions. AUD/USD is nearing the 0.7186 daily high as trades just below the 0.7180 mark.
“Domestic factors weigh, with RBA’s Ellis projecting a softer than expected rebound in the Australian economy and employment figures that are likely to remain weak in 2021.”
“Globally, Sino-US tensions should also do the AUD-USD no favours. However, the support at 0.7150 held amid ongoing risk-on sentiment.”
“Continue to expect a 0.7150 to 0.7250 range for now. A deeper retracement to 0.7070 may negate the recent supported posture.”
Today, the USD/CHF pair is trading with a decline from Chf0. 9170 to Chf0.9115, after rising yesterday to a weekly high of Chf0.9185). The pair is testing the MA (200) H1 (Chf0.9130) moving average line, but it remains well below MA (200) H4 (Chf0.9315) on the four-hour chart.
⦁ Resistance levels are at: Chf0.9185-90, Chf0.9240, Chf0.9300
⦁ Support levels are at: Chf0.9115, Chf0.9050, Chf0.9000
The publication of analysis is a marketing communication and does not constitute recommendation, investment advice or research by TeleTrade. Analysis is not prepared in accordance with legal requirements promoting independent investment research. It is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and shall not be understood as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FXStreet reports that Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, notes that EUR/GBP lost steam ahead of the 55-day ma at 0.9051 and expects a drop towards the 0.8931 July low.
“EUR/GBP has failed near-term at the 55-day ma at 0.9051 and is starting to break down from its range. Above the market lies the 0.9134 resistance line and this guards the recent high at 0.9178. We would allow for a slide to 0.8931 the July low.”
“A move above 0.9184 (Fibo) would trigger a rise to 0.9308 the 2017 high and 0.9323. This is the location of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. This is formidable resistance and is expected to hold the initial test.”
FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group notes that USD/JPY is forecasted to stick to the 105.00/106.00 range for the time being.
“USD traded between 105.69 and 106.19 yesterday before settling little changed at 105.95 (+0.04%). The underlying tone has firmed somewhat and this could lead to USD edging higher towards 106.40. For today, a sustained rise above this level is not expected (next resistance is at 106.60). Support is at 105.85 followed by 105.65.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from last Thursday (06 Aug, spot at 105.55). As highlighted, we continue to expect USD to consolidate, likely between 105.00 and 106.60. That said, upward momentum is showing sign of improving but for now, the prospect for a clear break of 106.60 is not high.”
FXStreet notes that the euro outperformance has been driven by risk on-risk off (RORO), rather than a narrowing of idiosyncratic European risk. Economists at HSBC remain positive on the USD’s outlook against the EUR where fiscal frailties may become a challenge in the months ahead.
“The Next Generation EU may not do much to arrest potential political angst in Europe, should unemployment rates rise and remain elevated as policy support diminishes later this year. Further financial integration should help the economic response for many countries, but it will not diminish the threat of Euroscepticism across the region, which could rear its head at the polls in the future.”
“The EUR's performance against other G10 currencies points us more towards a traditional 'Risk On-Risk Off (RORO) environment that has been dominant since late February for FX. There are some signs that the broader RORO Index may have peaked, suggesting a little more idiosyncratic behaviour is starting to creep in. But it is early days right now.”
“We are still expecting a relatively slow global economic recovery, with downside risks, and in such a world, we would expect fiscal policy flexibility to support currency strength. As a result, we remain positive on the USD's outlook against the EUR where fiscal frailties may become more of a challenge in the months ahead.”
FXStreet reports that EUR/GBP has seen a sharp rejection of the 21 and 55-day averages and below 0.8971 should see a test of the July low at 0.8937, removal of which would mark a top, according to the Credit Suisse analyst team. The pair is currently trading near the initial resistance at 0.8997, though.
“A break of the low of the past week at 0.8985 /71 is seen likely to expose the 0.8937 July low. Below here would see a bearish ‘double top’ complete to mark a more important swing lower with support then seen next at 0.8909, then more importantly at 0.8866/64 – the ‘neckline’ to the April/May base, June lows and 61.8% retracement of the April/June rally. Whilst we would look for this to hold at first, a break in due course can see support at 0.8779 next.”
“Resistance is seen at 0.8997 initially, with the immediate risk seen lower whilst below 0.9024/30. Above can see a move back to 0.9048, then 0.9060/65, but only above this latter area would see the risk turn back higher in the range.”
FXStreet reports that given the faster money creation in the United States than in the Eurozone, the growing external debt in the United States and the return to external assets in the Eurozone and the prospect of the creation of a Eurozone federal debt, it is logical to expect a marked appreciation of the euro against the dollar in the longer-term, according to economists at Natixis.
“The monetary approach to the exchange rate shows that the country where the money supply grows faster sees a depreciation of its exchange rate. There has been a faster rise in the monetary base (in central bank money) in the United States than in the Eurozone in the recent period due to the COVID crisis.”
“The United States’ shortfall in savings and its external deficit come up against the euro zone’s excess savings and external surplus. This has resulted in the United States’ growing net external debt and the return to net external assets for the Eurozone, i.e. a situation of excess supply of dollars and excess demand for euros, which is conducive to an appreciation of the euro against the dollar.”
“The historical trend is indeed that of a gradual introduction of federal debt in the Eurozone, which first finances investments in the European Union’s recovery plan and then broadens to finance the energy transition, investments for the future, etc. Euro-zone federal debt would be attractive, and investors would switch from US debt to this euro-zone federal debt, due to an increase in the euro’s weight in foreign exchange reserves, which would obviously be positive for an appreciation of the euro.”
“This reasosing obviously rules out the emergence of a serious political crisis in the Eurozone that would threaten a break-up of the Eurozone and drive investors to switch to the dollar, as we saw from 2010 to 2014.”
FXStreet reports that USD/CNH is expected to stick to the rangebound theme within the 6.9300/6.9800 area in the next weeks, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group.
24-hour view: USD did not do much yesterday as it traded between 6.9582 and 9.9742 before closing little changed at 6.9605 (-0.08%). The price action is viewed as part of an on-going consolidation phase and USD could continue to trade sideways for today, albeit at a lower range of 6.9500/6.9700.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “Our view from last Thursday (06 Aug, spot at 6.9400) wherein USD ‘is in a negative phase and break of 6.9300 critical support could lead to a quick move to 6.9050’ was proven wrong it breached the ‘strong resistance’ level at 6.9730 last Friday (high of 6.9763). While USD could still weaken further out, for the next 1 to 2 weeks, USD is likely to consolidate and trade sideways within a 6.9300/6.9800 range.”
According to the report from Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), in August 2020, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased again significantly compared to the previous month, after having declined slightly in July. Expectations are now at 71.5 points, 12.2 points higher than in the previous month. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany has slightly worsened, with the corresponding indicator decreasing 0.4 points to minus 81.3 points in the current August survey.
“Hopes for a speedy economic recovery have continued to grow, but the assessment of the situation is improving only slowly,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach on the current expectations. “According to the assessments of the individual sectors, experts expect to see a general recovery, especially in the domestic sectors. However, the still very poor earnings expectations for the banking sector and insurers regarding the coming six months give cause for concern,” Wambach points out.
Financial market experts’ sentiment concerning the economic development of the eurozone has improved, with the corresponding indicator climbing 4.4 points to a current level of 64.0 points compared to the previous month. The indicator for the current economic situation in the eurozone fell 1.1 points to a level of minus 89.8 points.
Reuters reports that China’s auto sales in July climbed 16.4% from a year earlier, the fourth consecutive month of gains as the world’s biggest vehicle market comes off lows hit during the country’s coronavirus lockdown.
Sales rose to 2.11 million vehicles in July but are still down 12.7% for the year to date at 12.37 million vehicles, according to wholesale sales data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).
The association expects auto sales to fall around 10% this year barring a second wave of virus infections which could deepen the slide to around 20%.
In a promising sign for many global automakers which have invested heavily in electric vehicles for the China market, sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) ended 12 straight months of decline with a 19.3% jump to 98,000 units.
“The sales growth shows NEV makers and customers are getting used to the new normal after the government cut subsidies last year,” said Xu Haidong, a senior CAAM official.
CAAM expects NEV sales of 1.1 million vehicles this year, a drop of around 11% from last year.
NEVs include battery-powered electric, plug-in gasoline-electric hybrid and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.
Sales of trucks and other commercial vehicles, which constitute around a quarter of the market, surged 59.4%, driven by government investment in infrastructure as well as tougher emission rules introduced this year. Sales of passenger vehicles rose 8.5%.
FXStreet reports that the 10-year Treasury yield was 14% in 1984 and is now just half of one percent. For most of that time, dips in Treasury yields were a reliable indicator of economic weakness ahead. Today, that no longer seems to be the case. Lisa Shalett from Morgan Stanley believes this has important ramifications for portfolio construction and is closely watching falls in gold prices which would warn a bottom of real yields.
“Long-term government bonds may no longer be the best option for yield or capital preservation with rates so low. Indeed, the ‘real’ yield you stand to earn on a 10-year Treasury note is now negative one percent when inflation expectations of around 1.5% are factored in. Also, investors have grown accustomed to valuing equities based on their earnings potential relative to the yield on a Treasury. That method may not work as well going forward and could be fueling some of the excessive valuations we’re seeing now, especially in tech stocks.”
“Action by the Fed has so far proven effective at relieving the pandemic’s worst potential economic damage. That said, these policies can come at a cost. I’ve recently discussed high valuations in tech and other growth stocks. To this, I’ll add apparent excessive risk-taking in corporate credit markets, the rapid appreciation of commodities like gold, and the depreciation of the US dollar.”
“There is also potential for longer-term interest rates to move higher if inflation expectations continue to rise. Investors should watch for a potential dip in gold prices, which could signal that real yields are set to bottom.”
Reuters reports that gross monthly earnings for full- and part-time workers in Germany fell 2.2% on average in the second quarter from a year ago, due mainly to the wide use of short-time work during the coronavirus crisis, the Federal Statistics Office said on Tuesday.
The hardest-hit sectors were hotels and hospitality, the auto sector and tour operators, it said.
"The broad use of short-time working due to the coronavirus pandemic had a negative impact on the level and development of gross monthly earnings and working hours," the Office said in a statement.
It added, however, that the short-time work programme, under which employees temporarily work shorter hours but keep their jobs while the state makes up the shortfall, cushioned the loss of income for employees to a large extent.
The Ifo institute said last week that the number of people in Germany on short-time work had fallen to 5.6 million.
Hourly earnings before tax were not hit by short-time work, rising 2.6% on average in the second quarter from the same period last year, said the Office.
FXStreet reports that the US dollar has been declining steadily, with the dollar index (DXY) falling by 9% since the year’s high in March. Economists at UBS now see reasons for the dollar to consolidate – the surge in US COVID-19 cases appears to be slowing and they expect Congress to reach an agreement on further fiscal stimulus, and short positions have built up. But longer-term, the economists expect further dollar weakness given ultra-loose US monetary policy, concerns over US indebtedness and the unwinding of long-term dollar holdings.
“We see three reasons why the USD depreciation trend could pause and the greenback may recover some lost ground in the near-term. 1. The increase in new COVID-19 cases in the US now appears to be slowing. Meanwhile, in parts of Europe new case growth is rising. 2. Concerns about the looming ‘fiscal cliff’ in the US as additional unemployment benefits have expired have also weighed on the dollar. While Congress has yet to reach an agreement, with both parties incentivized to reach a deal ahead of the presidential election, we expect a new package of at least USD 1 trilliom will be agreed. This should provide some relief for the US dollar. 3. Based on CFTC data, net short positions in the dollar against the euro held by speculative accounts have increased to their highest levels since 2018, raising the potential for a bout of profit-taking, if the news flow turns more positive toward the dollar.”
“Longer-term, we think the USD downtrend remains intact, even though we expect the pace of its decline to slow: The ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policy in the US, which has eroded the dollar’s interest rate advantage, is set to persist. Uncertainty related to the US elections is likely to continue to weigh on the dollar. Even after the election, uncertainty about the US fiscal stance and the extent of US indebtedness might continue to weigh on the USD. Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, many long-term investors had exceptionally high levels of USD exposure. We expect this over-exposure to be addressed.”
“On EUR/USD we expect the dollar to weaken to 1.22 (middle of a 1.20-1.25 range) by September 2021, and we would add exposure to the euro versus the USD on a dip to 1.15-1.16. For USD/CHF we forecast a rate of 0.90 over the same time horizon. While the Swiss National Bank has recently scaled back its currency intervention efforts, we expect it to continue to intervene to limit CHF strength.”
|01:30||Australia||National Australia Bank's Business Confidence||July||-14|
|05:00||Japan||Eco Watchers Survey: Current||July||38.8||46.6||41.1|
|05:00||Japan||Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook||July||44||48.2||36|
|06:00||United Kingdom||Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y||June||0.7%||-0.1%||-0.2%|
|06:00||United Kingdom||Average Earnings, 3m/y||June||-0.3%||-1.1%||-1.2%|
|06:00||United Kingdom||ILO Unemployment Rate||June||3.9%||4.2%||3.9%|
|06:00||United Kingdom||Claimant count||July||-28.1||10||94.4|
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar traded steadily against the euro and rose against the yen. Investors continue to monitor the process of adopting a new package of measures to support the US economy. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Monday said he hopes to reach an agreement between the White house and Congress on new measures to support the country's economy this week.
The day before, the US dollar was supported by the decision of US President Donald Trump to sign four executive orders at once to extend measures to support the economy, bypassing Congress. One of the decrees, in particular, provides for partial restoration of additional payments to unemployment benefits.
The pound is slightly cheaper against the dollar and euro. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the UK in July fell by 28.1 thousand, as well as a month earlier, according to data from the National statistics office. Experts predicted an increase in the number of applications in June by 10 thousand. Unemployment in the UK in July was 3.9%, as in June. The consensus forecast of experts provided for an increase in unemployment to 4.2%.
This week, investors are also waiting for the publication of preliminary data on the change in UK GDP in the second quarter and data on the country's industrial production in June.
The Australian dollar rose against the dollar. The National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index for the Australian economy fell to -14 points in July 2020 from 0 a month earlier. The index assessing business conditions rose to zero points from -8 points in June. The terms of trade subindex rose to 1 point from -6 points.
CNBC reports that Mohamed El-Erian told that he considers a wave of corporate bankruptcies as the biggest risk to the stock market’s rally from coronavirus-era lows.
“I think what derails this market isn’t more China-U.S. tension, isn’t more political differences. It would be if we get then large-scale bankruptcies,” the chief economic advisor at Allianz said on “Squawk Box.” “That is what derails this market. Otherwise, you have a very strong technical supporting this marketplace.”
El-Erian’s comments come as Democrats and Trump administration negotiators have been unable to strike a deal on a broad coronavirus relief package, prompting President Donald Trump to issue a series of executive actions this weekend on issues that include federal unemployment supplements and student loan payments.
Tensions between the U.S. and China also have been rising, particularly regarding Beijing’s sweeping national security law in Hong Kong, and Trump’s recent executive orders involving the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok and Tencent’s popular messaging app WeChat.
El-Erian, formerly co-CEO of investment powerhouse Pimco, contended that the market’s rally in recent weeks has really been about technical indicators, allowing for equities to continue moving higher even in spite of the coronavirus pandemic and other headwinds.
“It’s all been about technicals and that allows the market to over and over again to shrug off fundamentals,” he said. “Do I think there’s a limit to technicals supporting markets on their own? Yes. It just can go on for quite a while.”
El-Erian, who correctly predicted the coronavirus sell-off would continue until a bear market was reached but has been cautious about the recovery, said he worries about the “structurally embedded” economic damage that significant bankruptcies may usher in.
“Bankruptcies go from short-term liquidity problems to long-term solvency problems. If you get that, then unemployment becomes more problematic, and you get capital impairment,” he said. “Believe me, if there’s one thing Federal Reserve money cannot help markets through, it’s capital impairment events.
He added that a plateauing in the U.S. economic recovery from worst of the coronavirus-related carnage would still leave bankruptcies on the table. “We need growth to pick up again,” he said. “We need to get back to this notion of ‘V’ [shaped recovery] as opposed to a square root, where we come up and then level off.”
FXStreet reports that in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, NZD/USD could attempt a move to the 0.6520 area in the next weeks.
24-hour view: “After dropping sharply last Friday (07 Aug), NZD traded in a relatively quiet manner between 0.6578 and 0.6611 yesterday (10 Aug). While downward momentum is lackluster, there is room for NZD to edge lower towards 0.6560. For today, the next support at 0.6540 is not expected to come into the picture. Resistance is at 0.6610 but the stronger level is at 0.6625.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “In our latest update for NZD from last Friday (07 Aug, spot at 0.6685), we noted that ‘while upward momentum has improved a tad but the prospect for a sustained break of 0.6710 Is not high’. We added, ‘only a daily closing above 0.6755 would indicate that NZD has moved into a fresh positive phase’. While our doubt about the start of a fresh positive was not wrong, we did not quite anticipate the subsequent sharp sell-off that sent NZD plunging by -1.29% on Friday, its biggest 1-day decline in 2 months. For now, it is too early to expect a major reversal but the late July peak of 0.6716 is likely a short-term top and this level may not come back into the picture for the next couple of weeks. Meanwhile, NZD is expected to trade with a downward bias towards 0.6520. On the upside, a break of 0.6660 would indicate the current mild downward pressure has eased.”
According to the report from Office for National Statistics, early indicators for July 2020 suggest that the number of employees in the UK on payrolls is down around 730,000 compared with March 2020. Flows analysis suggests that the falls in May, June and July are mainly because of fewer people moving into payrolled employment.
Survey data show employment is weakening and unemployment is largely unchanged because of increases in economic inactivity, with people out of work but not currently looking for work.
The decrease in employment on the quarter was the largest quarterly decrease since May to July 2009 with both men and women seeing decreases on the quarter. The quarterly decrease in employment was also driven by workers aged 65 years and over, the self-employed and part-time workers. Meanwhile full-time employees largely offset the decrease.
A large number of people are estimated to be temporarily away from work, including furloughed workers; approximately 7.5 million in June 2020 with over 3 million of these being away for three months or more.
Vacancies are showing increases in the latest period, driven by the smaller businesses, some of which are reporting taking on additional staff to meet COVID-19 guidelines.
The Claimant Count reached 2.7 million in July 2020, an increase of 116.8% since March 2020.
Pay fell for all measures in the three months to June 2020. However, for the sectors of wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants and construction where the highest percentage of employees returned to work from furlough, there is a slight improvement in pay growth for June 2020.
April to June figures show weakening employment rates, with numbers of self-employed and part-time workers seeing reductions; despite these falls, unemployment was not rising, because of increases in people out of work but not currently looking for work; the reduction in total hours worked is a record both on the year and on the quarter, with the whole period covering a time since the introduction of coronavirus measures.
The Claimant Count increased in July 2020, reaching 2.7 million; this includes both those working with low income or hours and those who are not working.
Vacancies in the UK in May to July 2020 were at an estimated 370,000; this is 10% higher than the record low in April to June 2020.
The three months to June 2020 saw strong falls in pay; total nominal pay fell by 1.2% on the year and regular nominal pay fell by 0.2% (the first negative pay growth in regular nominal earnings since records began in 2001).
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1746
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 84480 contracts (according to data from August, 10) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0500 (5007);
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3081
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 4 is 21809 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (3296);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 15685 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1259);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.72 versus 0.68 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 10
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
|Raw materials||Closed||Change, %|
|Index||Change, points||Closed||Change, %|
|01:30||Australia||National Australia Bank's Business Confidence||July||1|
|05:00||Japan||Eco Watchers Survey: Current||July||38.8||46.6|
|05:00||Japan||Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook||July||44||48.2|
|06:00||United Kingdom||Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y||June||0.7%||-0.1%|
|06:00||United Kingdom||Average Earnings, 3m/y||June||-0.3%||-1.2%|
|06:00||United Kingdom||ILO Unemployment Rate||June||3.9%||4.2%|
|06:00||United Kingdom||Claimant count||July||-28.1|
|09:00||Eurozone||ZEW Economic Sentiment||August||59.6|
|09:00||Germany||ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment||August||59.3||59|
|12:30||U.S.||PPI excluding food and energy, m/m||July||-0.3%||0.1%|
|12:30||U.S.||PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y||July||0.1%|
|16:00||U.S.||FOMC Member Daly Speaks|
|22:45||New Zealand||Visitor Arrivals||June||-99%||-98.4%|
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