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Notizie dai Mercati

19 settembre 2019
  • 08:47

    EUR/USD: Bottoming formation yet to be confirmed – Commerzbank

    Axel Rudolph, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that EUR/USD pair is still targeting the April and May lows as well as the three month resistance line at 1.1089/1.1110, having bounced off the September 17 low at 1.0990.

    “Only a daily chart close above the August 26 high at 1.1164 would confirm a bottoming formation and put the 200 day ma at 1.1254 back on the cards. Support below the recent lows at 1.0927/26 comes in at the June 2016 low and the March 2017 high at 1.0912/07. Failure at 1.0927/26 would negate our bullish outlook and put the January 2017 low at 1.0829 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 advance at 1.0814 on the map.”

  • 08:31

    If a US recession comes, it will be ‘shallow’ - Barings chief

    Any recession that happens in the US would likely be “shallow” given the current state of the country’s economy, according to Tom Finke, chairman and CEO of investment management firm Barings.

    “From the U.S. point of view and the U.S. economy, if we’re talking about a recession in the U.S., the consumer and growth industries like (technology) have offset declines in ... other industries,” Finke told CNBC.

    “We still have tight labor markets, you still have growth industries,” Finke said. “It’s not the typical, if you will, cyclical slowdown where you have a big long decline going into it. We’re actually growing still.”

    As the U.S.-China trade fight rages, major stock markets across the globe have fluctuated wildly. Finke said Barings keeps its eye on the fundamentals in such an environment.

    “What we’re looking at,” he said, “is industries and companies and their balance sheets and their income statements to say: ‘OK, do they have sustainable growth going on ... are they able to generate cash flow, are they in an industry that’s being disrupted like retail, or are they in an industry that’s growing like technology?’”

    “You gotta look at those fundamentals and not just look at the movement in stock market day-to-day, and picking value in credit markets and in asset markets like real estate,” he said.

  • 08:15

    FOMC: A hawkish cut - CIBC

    CIBC discusses its reaction to  FOMC policy decision. "If a central bank can seems a bit hawkish on the very day they announce a rate cut, the Fed may have managed to do just that, in part due to the divisions among FOMC members about what lies ahead. While approving a quarter point cut on the target rate (and an extra 5 bps off the rate paid on overnight reserves in an effort to cool the crunch we've seen in funding rates in the last couple of days), the Fed avoided promising a lot more to come. The "dot" forecast doesn't have any further cuts this year or next, in terms of the median dot, but we note that there were 7 dots showing another quarter point cut this year, and we suspect that more of the hawks are among regional presidents who don't always vote. We'll therefore stick to our call for one more cut this year, and then a pause through 2020. There were two dissents in favour of no cut, and one for a 50 bp move. There were no meaningful changes in growth or inflation forecasts, but clearly, there's still a lot of uncertainty surround that path, and in the policy assumptions on trade etc. that go with it," CIBC adds.

  • 08:01

    Switzerland: Trade Balance, August 1.15

  • 07:29

    Options levels on thursday, September 19, 2019


    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.1177 (2112)

    $1.1147 (1981)

    $1.1115 (1431)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.1036

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.0988 (5448)

    $1.0944 (3184)

    $1.0897 (2195)


    - Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 4 is 95169 contracts (according to data from September, 18) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1050 (13259);


    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.2590 (1793)

    $1.2568 (846)

    $1.2538 (573)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.2471

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.2388 (602)

    $1.2355 (603)

    $1.2317 (780)


    - Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 4 is 15553 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (1793);

    - Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 4 is 15824 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1900 (1462);

    - The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.02 versus 1.00 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 18


    * - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

    ** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

  • 06:31

    Japan: All Industry Activity Index, m/m, July 0.2%

  • 06:17

    Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, -0.1% (forecast -0.1%)

  • 04:30

    Commodities. Daily history for Wednesday, September 18, 2019

    Raw materials Closed Change, %
    Brent 62.87 -0.63
    WTI 58.09 -0.8
    Silver 17.7 -1.61
    Gold 1493.136 -0.54
    Palladium 1587.94 -0.55
  • 03:30

    Australia: Unemployment rate, August 5.3% (forecast 5.3%)

  • 03:30

    Australia: Changing the number of employed, August 34.7 (forecast 10)

  • 02:30

    Stocks. Daily history for Wednesday, September 18, 2019

    Index Change, points Closed Change, %
    NIKKEI 225 -40.61 21960.71 -0.18
    Hang Seng -36.12 26754.12 -0.13
    KOSPI 8.4 2070.73 0.41
    ASX 200 -13.7 6681.6 -0.2
    FTSE 100 -6.35 7314.05 -0.09
    DAX 17.01 12389.62 0.14
    Dow Jones 36.28 27147.08 0.13
    S&P 500 1.03 3006.73 0.03
    NASDAQ Composite -8.63 8177.39 -0.11
  • 02:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Wednesday, September 18, 2019

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.68288 -0.55
    EURJPY 119.593 -0.08
    EURUSD 1.10318 -0.35
    GBPJPY 135.198 0.06
    GBPUSD 1.24728 -0.19
    NZDUSD 0.6316 -0.64
    USDCAD 1.32835 0.3
    USDCHF 0.99604 0.32
    USDJPY 108.392 0.27
  • 00:45

    New Zealand: GDP y/y, Quarter II 2.1% (forecast 2%)

  • 00:30

    Schedule for today, Thursday, September 19, 2019

    Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
    01:30 Australia RBA Bulletin    
    01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed August 41.1 10
    01:30 Australia Unemployment rate August 5.2% 5.3%
    03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%
    04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m July -0.8%  
    06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance August 2.7  
    06:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference    
    07:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision -0.75% -0.75%
    08:00 Eurozone Current account, unadjusted, bln July 23.1 26.2
    08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) August 3.3% 2.9%
    08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) August 0.2% 0%
    10:00 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks    
    11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 435 435
    11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75%
    11:00 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes    
    12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1670 1672
    12:30 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey September 16.8 11
    12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 204 213
    12:30 U.S. Current account, bln Quarter II -130.4 -127.8
    14:00 U.S. Leading Indicators August 0.5% 0.1%
    14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales August 5.42 5.37
    23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y August 0.6% 0.5%
    23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y August 0.5%  
19 settembre 2019
Focus del Mercato
  • BOJ keeps policy steady, signals chance of easing in October
  • Japan finance minister Aso: No currency provision included in US-Japan trade deal
  • Fed lowers interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected
  • RBA Meeting's Minutes: RBA board would consider further policy easing if needed to support growth, inflation targets
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