Market news

22 január 2016

American focus: the US dollar strengthened

The US dollar rose against other major currencies, as expectations of additional measures to stimulate the economy of the eurozone and Japan supported the US currency, while the investors assess the published statistics in the United States.

The data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed that the national activity index (CFNAI) improved to -0.22 in December, against -0.36 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators have improved since November, but three of the four categories had a negative impact on the index in December. 35 of the 85 individual indicators contributed to the growth of the index, while 50 indicators weighed. 51 index improved from November to December, while 32 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. The index, which combines manufacturing indicator increased to -0.26 in December from -0.40 in November. Recall that in December, industrial production fell by 0.4 percent after falling 0.9 percent in November. Meanwhile, the index includes indicators on trade orders and inventories, improved to -0.02 from -0.03 in November. Employment indicator stayed at the level of 0.12, and the index of personal consumption fell to -0.07 from -0.05.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that the results of December sales in the secondary market rose by 14.7%, amounting to 5.46 million at the same time. Units on an annualized basis. (seasonally adjusted). Experts expect that sales will increase to 5.2 million. Units. with 4.76 million. units in the previous month (revised figure does not). At the end of 2015 the volume of housing sales reached 5.26 million. Units, the highest since 2006. The report also said that inventories of existing homes for sale fell by 12% compared to November, to a level of 1.79 million. Units. (minimum value of the almost ten years). The ratio of inventories to the current volume of sales declined to 3.9 months from 5.1 months in November. The national median home price rose to $ 224,100, which is 7.6% higher than in December 2014. Add the price increase has been celebrated the 46 th consecutive month. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of NAR, said that in 2016 the sales volume is likely to be relatively unchanged for scarce stocks and the broader economic "turbulence". However, he expects the US will sustain recent market volatility.

The US dollar strengthened positions after ECB President Mario Draghi said that the regulator "would need to be reviewed and possibly re-think" its monetary policy meeting in March, when there will be fresh economic forecasts. On Friday morning, Draghi said that the Bank has "sufficient tools" for the achievement of price stability in the euro area.

The US dollar fell to polutoranedelnoy low against the Canadian dollar, as a rebound in oil prices contributed to the growth of the Canadian currency, although the demand for the US dollar is still widely supported. On Friday, oil prices returned to the level of $ 31 per barrel, as a cold front that swept the US and Europe, supports the demand for raw materials. On Wednesday, the first time since 2003 the price of oil fell below $ 27 per barrel along with the collapse of global financial markets, as investors worried that a considerable surplus of raw materials on the market comes at a time of slowing economic growth in the world, especially in China.

On Friday, Canada's statistical data showed that retail sales rose 1.7% in November, well above forecasts growth of 0.2%. The index of retail sales excluding autos rose 1.1% in November, although the expected increase of just 0.4%. A separate report showed that the consumer price index in Canada fell 0.5% in December, below the projected 0.4% fall. In annual terms, the CPI increased by 1.6%. Core CPI (excluding volatile in price of energy and food) fell by 0.4% last month, confounding expectations for a decline of 0.3%.

The yen fell against the dollar, reaching a minimum of 8 January, which was associated with a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets because of rising stock markets in Asia and Europe. Pressure on the currency have also speculation that the Bank of Japan is considering new measures easing. In his article today news agency Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan's seriously mulling the possibility of expanding monetary stimulus measures. The newspaper referred to the comments of a senior official of the Central Bank. In these statements it refers to the fact that the period of low oil prices seem to be long and more people are convinced of this. This means that the consumer price index will have less chance to somehow climb. Also, recently there has been the strengthening of the yen and fall in Japanese stocks. In this regard, the government and the Central Bank strengthened the intentions in the expansion of monetary stimulus. Nikkei also noted that in his report of economic activity, which will be published on January 29, the Bank of Japan lowered its forecast for the growth rate of consumer prices from 1.4% to 1%. It is also very likely that will be extended timeframes to achieve the inflation target of 2%.

An additional factor of pressure on the yen was also a deterioration in the index of manufacturing activity PMI Nikkei-Markit in January to 52.4 points against 52.6 in December. Analysts had forecast that the index improved to 52.8 points. Production rose to 21-month high, while growth in the new orders index fell to a six-month low.

The pound strengthened against the US dollar, rising above $ 1.4300. Investors are hardly paid attention to the weak retail sales in Britain, while focusing on good statistics on volume of borrowing in the public sector. As it became known, the public sector net borrowing fell in December to 6.87 billion. Against 12.94 billion pounds. In November. Experts predicted 10.35 billion. Lbs. The report also reported that net borrowing state. sector (excluding state-owned banks) decreased in December to 4.3 billion. against 7.5 billion pounds. pounds in the previous month. It was expected that the loan will amount to 10.5 billion. Lbs. Last change was largely due to the decrease in borrowings of the central and local governments 2.8 billion. And 1.4 billion pounds. Pounds, respectively. Since the beginning of the financial year, net borrowing state. sector (excluding state-owned banks) amounted to 74.2 billion. pounds, which is 11 billion. pounds, or 12.9 percent less than the same period in 2014.

The euro declined significantly against the dollar, having lost most of the positions, earned the night before. Experts note that the single currency remains under pressure due to yesterday's ECB President Draghi's comments, as well as today's statistics on business activity. In a preliminary report, Markit reported that the private sector in Germany slowed the pace of growth of activity in January, registering with the weakest expansion in three months. The composite PMI index fell to 54.5 in January from 55.5 in December. The PMI index for the services sector fell to 55.4 from 56. It was predicted that the rate will decrease to 55.6. Industrial activity grew at the slowest pace in 8 months - the PMI index was 52.1 against 53.2 in December. It was expected the index to decline to 53.0.

It also became known that the growth of private sector activity in the euro zone slowed in January to its lowest level in eleven months. The composite purchasing managers' index fell to 53.5 from 54.3 in December. Economists expected a decline to 54.2. Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.3 in January from 53.2, which also turned out to be worse than expected (53.0). The latter value was the lowest in three months. Meanwhile, the PMI index for the services sector fell from 54.2 to 53.6 (minimum one year). Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged. Despite the slowdown, business confidence in the private sector has improved, while employment remained at the highest level for the past 4.5 years because of the significant increase in unfilled orders. the study said. In addition, companies have reduced their purchasing costs due to a further drop in oil prices. Against this background, sales prices also decreased in January, said the Markit.

Piaci kitekintő
  • BOJ keeps policy steady, signals chance of easing in October
  • UK retail sales fell slightly in August
  • Fed lowers interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected
  • SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at -0.75%

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