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23 december 2015

American focus: the US dollar rose against the euro

The US dollar rose against the euro on Wednesday as some investors once again began to open short positions in the single currency, waiting for further divergence in monetary policy between the central banks of the eurozone and the United States.

Reduced trading volumes due to the holiday season still make the dollar traded in narrow ranges, even after being released on Wednesday, data showed the stability of the US economy amid rising consumer confidence.

Orders for durable goods remained unchanged in November, but a key indicator of business investment fell, indicating the weak demand in the US manufacturing sector. This was reported in the statement of the Ministry of Commerce.

According to the data, new orders for durable goods were approximately unchanged in November compared with the previous month. Economists had expected orders to decline by 0.6% last month after rising 2.9% in October.

The manufacturing sector, which accounts for about 12% of GDP, significantly affected this year amid falling prices for oil and gas. In addition, weakness abroad and a stronger dollar led to a decline in demand for US exports.

In turn, the US Commerce Department announced that in November the amount of personal income, ie profit before tax from wages and investments, increased by 0.3% after rising 0.4% in October. Meanwhile, the volume of personal spending rose 0.3% after a zero change in the previous month. Economists had expected revenues to grow by 0.2% and expenditures by 0.3%.

Consumer spending is the foundation of the US economy, as over two thirds of GDP. Strong spending in recent months allowed the economy to grow steadily, in spite of numerous obstacles, including a stronger dollar and weak external demand. Recall that in the 3rd quarter, GDP grew by 2.0%. Many economists believe that in the 4-quarter the economy expanded by about the same amount.

Today's report also showed that spending on goods rose by 0.6%, which was mainly due to purchases of durable goods. Meanwhile, the cost of services rose 0.2%.

Even with higher costs, we maintain a decent level of household savings. According to the data, the personal savings rate fell to 5.5% in November from 5.6% the previous month, but remained in second place from the beginning of 2013.

The price index for personal consumption expenditures - the preferred inflation gauge for the Fed - remained unchanged compared to October, but rose by 0.4% per annum. The base index, which excludes prices of food and energy, rose by 0.1% in monthly terms and 1.3% per annum.

The final results of the studies submitted by Thomson-Reuters and the Institute of Michigan, revealed in December US consumers felt more optimistic about the economy than last month.

According to published reports, this month the index of consumer sentiment rose to 92.6 points compared with a final reading of 91.3 points in November and the preliminary value of 91.8 points in November. According to experts the average index should reach 92.0 points.

Pound previously increased significantly against the dollar, recouping all the lost positions yesterday. Support currency had good data on Britain's balance of payments, which helped neutralize the negative of the GDP report. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the current account deficit in the third quarter amounted to 17.460 billion pounds, the equivalent of 3.7 percent of GDP. The size of the deficit in the second quarter was revised up to 17.5 billion. 16.8 billion pounds. Pounds. Experts expect that the deficit will rise to 21.5 billion. Lbs. No increase in the deficit was mainly due to a reduction of payments to foreign owners of British assets. The Bank of England believes that the large current account deficit of the balance of payments poses a threat to financial stability in the country.

Another report showed that the UK economy grew in the 3rd quarter, less than previously thought. GDP grew by 0.4 percent in the third quarter. Recall that in the preliminary and revised report reported economic growth of 0.5 percent. Analysts had expected that the economy will expand by 0.5 percent. Weaker growth in the services sector, especially in finuslug was the main reason for the revision of the GDP, said the ONS. Activity in the services sector rose by 0.6 percent compared with a preliminary estimate of 0.7 percent. Construction output fell by 1.9 percent instead of 2.2 percent. The volume of production grew by 0.2 percent, in line with the previous estimate. In annual terms, GDP growth was also revised downward - to 2.1 per cent from the previous reading of 2.3 percent. It was predicted that the economy will grow by 2.3 per cent. The ONS also lowered its growth estimate for the period from April to June to 0.5 per cent from 0.7 per cent in quarterly terms and to 2.3 percent from 2.4 percent in annual terms.

The Canadian dollar has confirmed its dependence on the dynamics of oil prices and increased by 0.3%, despite the weak data in Canada. Oil prices rose to two-week mark after a significant decline in US inventories.

Meanwhile, the USD / CAD pair on Wednesday briefly rose to C $ 1.3938 after the data were published by Canadian GDP for October and retail sales, which were worse than expected.

Canadian economic growth "paused" in October, as a rebound in the oil and gas sector was offset by a decline in the manufacturing sector and retail trade. This according to a report by Statistics Canada.

Gross domestic product remained unchanged in October, contrary to expectations of a 0.2 percent increase. Zero change followed a decline of 0.5 percent in September, which is not revised.

The Canadian economy was in a mild recession in the first half, hit by cheap oil, which is the largest export to Canada. Although growth resumed in the third quarter, the latest data point to weakness at the beginning of the 4th quarter.

Activities in the oil and gas industry increased by 0.8 percent in October, recovering from a sharp drop in September caused some difficulties in production and the suspension of work. However, this improvement was offset by a 0.3 percent decline in production and a fall of 1.4 percent in housing and communal services due to a decrease in natural gas consumption.

The retail sector also had a negative impact on the results - in October it recorded a drop of 0.4 percent. Most of decreased sales of food and beverages.

In the category of transport and warehousing services noted a drop of 0.4 percent, mainly due to the reduction in freight transport services.

In addition, Statistics Canada reported that retail sales in October rose less than expected, as the increase in the segment of cars and clothes have been overshadowed by a decline in food stores.

According to the data at the end of October, sales rose by 0.1 percent, which was worse than forecasts of experts at the level of 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, the September figure was revised to improve - to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent. In volume terms, sales in October fell 0.3 percent.

Piaci kitekintő
  • BOJ keeps policy steady, signals chance of easing in October
  • UK retail sales fell slightly in August
  • Fed lowers interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected
  • SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at -0.75%

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