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15 szeptember 2015

American focus: the US dollar rose despite disappointing reports

The US dollar rose against most currencies despite the exit of a number of weak reports on the US economy, while investors took a wait and see attitude on the eve of the forthcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve on Thursday. The volume of industrial production in the US decreased by the end of August, while exceeding the forecasts of experts that may have been due to the deteriorating economic situation abroad, and volatility in the financial markets. This was reported in the statement of the Federal Reserve System (FRS).

According to the data, the seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.4%, partially offset by a July increase of 0.9%, which was revised from 0.6%. It is worth emphasizing this was the sixth decline in production over the past eight months. It also became known that the capacity utilization decreased in August to 77.6% compared to 78.0% in July. Economists had expected a decline in production by 0.2%, and reduce the capacity utilization to 77.8%.

Production in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for almost three quarters of the total industrial production decreased by 0.5%, which was due to a decrease in production of automobiles and auto parts. Meanwhile, the production of consumer goods increased by 0.4%. In annual terms, production in the manufacturing sector increased by 1.4%.

Meanwhile, the report showed that the ore extraction dropped 0.6%, reflecting a potentially lower energy prices and slowing demand for commodities from China. The relatively strong dollar, which makes exports more expensive for foreign buyers also put pressure on the performance in the manufacturing sector.

At the same time, American consumers increased their spending in August, but at a slower pace than in the previous month and less than the forecasts of experts. This was reported in the Ministry of Commerce.

According to data seasonally adjusted sales in retail stores and restaurants rose in August by 0.2% compared with an increase of 0.7% in June (revised from 0.6%). Meanwhile, retail sales excluding autos rose 0.3% against 0.6% in the previous month (revised from 0.4%). Experts expect that sales will increase by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.

We also learned that in annual terms, retail sales rose in August by 2.2%. Excluding gasoline purchases, sales in August increased by 0.4%. Compared with the same period of 2014, sales excluding gasoline prices increased by 4.4%.

Recall Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity in the United States and are a key indicator of the health of the economy. Retail sales represent a large share of total consumer spending. In general, the data show that consumers increased their spending in the spring and summer of this year as steel feel more confident about their economic situation. In addition to the low fuel prices, consumers have benefited from the stronger dollar, which makes imported goods cheaper. A strong labor market also helped increase costs.

The Department of Commerce also reported that sales of cars and auto parts increased by 0.7%, as sales in bars, restaurants and stores of food and beverages. Sales in the medical stores and stores personal care increased by 0.8%, while in clothing stores had recorded growth of 0.4%. On the other hand, sales at gas stations have fallen by 1.8% in August, noted the largest decline since January. Gasoline prices on average fell to $ 2.636 per gallon, compared to $ 2.794 per gallon in July.

Contrary to the expectations of economists, business activity producers in New York and did not show a significant improvement in September after an unexpected drop in August. This is evidenced by a report released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Reported Fed manufacturing index in New York rose to -14.7 this month from -14.9 in August. The August index was the lowest since 2009. By September, the index has declined for four months in a row. Economists expected the index to -0.75. Readings above zero indicate expanding activity.

Most of the sub-indices also continued to remain in negative territory. The fall in business activity and the deterioration in the labor market led to a reduction of manufacturers optimistic about future prospects. Expectations index of business activity fell by ten points, to 23.2.

Previously, the pressure on the euro was a report on the ZEW index according to which the German economic confidence weakened sharply in September, while reaching 10-month low. According to the data, the index of sentiment in the business environment fell in September to 12.1 points compared to 25.0 points in August. The last reading was the lowest since November 2014, when the figure was 11.5 points. Economists had expected the index to fall to 18.4 points. Also, the data showed that the index assess the current situation rose slightly in September - to 67.5 points versus 65.7 points last month. In addition, the ZEW said economic sentiment indicator for the euro zone fell in September by 14.3 points to 33.3 points. At the same time, the indicator of the current situation improved by 0.6 points to -9.7 points.

The pound fell against the dollar, the focus was on the UK inflation report, which showed that consumer prices rose in August by 0.2 percent in monthly terms, but were unchanged compared with the previous year. Last change coincided with forecasts of experts. Recall of the end of July was recorded decrease of 0.2 percent and an increase of 0.1 per cent, respectively. The ONS said that the fall in gasoline prices and lower seasonal increase in prices of clothing than in 2014, were the main factors slowing down the growth of prices. In addition, it was reported that producer prices fell in August by 1.8 percent per annum, recording a record decline since January. Also add that the cost of the British producers associated with crude oil, decreased by 47.7 percent compared to the same period in 2014. Also, today's report showed that core inflation, which excludes prices of energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco increased by 1.0 per cent per annum, what was slower than the growth of 1.2 percent in July.

The yen strengthened against the dollar earlier, and set a new session high at Y119.39. Earlier today, the Bank of Japan kept its previous course of monetary policy. The decision was adopted 8 votes to 1. Board member Kiuchi has traditionally been against the decision of the Monetary Policy. In addition, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain the monetary policy parameters unchanged, the Central Bank has lowered its assessment of the economy. In a statement submitted after the two-day meeting, the Bank of Japan said that exports and industrial production "in recent years remained more or less unchanged", while last month it was noted that they are animated. In addition, the bank has changed the assessment of the economy in general, stating that "the economy continued to recover moderately, although the slowdown in emerging economies impact on exports and production." Meanwhile, the head of the Central Bank of Kuroda said he expects growth of consumer prices to the target level of 2% in the 1st half of 2016.

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