Lee Sue Ann, an economist at UOB Group, provides her views on the BoJ’s monetary policy.
FX Strategists at UOB Group keep the constructive view on USD/CNH in the next weeks.
Business School Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), measuring Canada’s economic
activity, climbed to 60.0 in November from an unrevised 48.2 in October. That
was the highest reading since August.
Economists had expected the gauge to hit 53.8.
A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.
Within sub-indexes, the inventories indicator surged to 59.1 in November from 45.6 in the prior month, while the supplier deliveries gauge increased to 52.7 from 45.1 and the employment measure rose to 50.3 from 47.2. At the same time, the prices index decreased to 54.9 in October from 57.0 in October.
Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the value of new factory orders rose
0.3 percent m-o-m in October, following a revised 0.8 percent m-o-m decrease in
September (originally a 0.6 percent m-o-m drop).
Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent m-o-m gain.
According to the report, orders for transportation equipment jumped 0.7 percent m-o-m in October after declining 3.2 percent m-o-m in September. Orders for computers and electronic products rose 0.6 percent m-o-m, and machinery orders went up 1.2 percent m-o-m after edging down 0.1 percent m-o-m in September. Meanwhile, orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components decreased 1.8 percent m-o-m after advancing 0.9 percent m-o-m in September.
Total factory orders excluding transportation, a volatile part of the overall reading, increased 0.2 percent m-o-m in October (compared to a downwardly revised 0.3 percent m-o-m fall in September), while orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a measure of business spending plans, climbed 1.1 percent m-o-m (instead of surging 1.2 percent m-o-m as reported last week). The report also showed that shipments of core capital goods surged 0.8 percent m-o-m in October, the same as previously reported.
In y-o-y terms, factory orders decreased 0.4 percent in October.
FX Strategists at UOB Group expect the USD/JPY to grind lower towards the 108.00 neighbourhood in the next weeks.
Analysts at National Bank Financial (NBF) note that the Bank of Canada left (Boc) the overnight rate unchanged at 1.75% yesterday.
U.S. stock-index futures rose on Thursday on increased hopes of U.S.-China phase-one trade deal.
Today's Change, points
Today's Change, %
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALTRIA GROUP INC.
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ
Cisco Systems Inc
Citigroup Inc., NYSE
Exxon Mobil Corp
Ford Motor Co.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE
General Electric Co
General Motors Company, NYSE
Home Depot Inc
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.
International Business Machines Co...
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase and Co
Merck & Co Inc
Procter & Gamble Co
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ
Travelers Companies Inc
Twitter, Inc., NYSE
UnitedHealth Group Inc
Wal-Mart Stores Inc
Walt Disney Co
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ
Canada announced on Thursday that Canada’s merchandise trade deficit stood at
CAD1.08 billion in October, narrowing from a revised CAD1.23 billion gap in September
(originally a CAD0.98-billion gap).
Economists had expected a deficit of CAD1.37 billion.
According to the report, the country’s exports rose 0.8 percent m-o-m in October, led by gains in exports of consumer goods (+5.5 percent m-o-m), energy products (+3.4 percent m-o-m) and metal and non-metallic mineral products (+5.7 percent m-o-m). Meanwhile, imports increased 0.5 percent m-o-m in October, mostly on higher imports of energy products (+8.9 percent m-o-m).
Barrick (GOLD) assumed with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts
Apple (AAPL) target raised to $300 from $250 at Citigroup
NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman
The data from
the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for
unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the labor market
remains solid even as the economy is slowing.
According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 203,000 for the week ended November 30, the lowest level since mid-April.
Economists had expected 215,000 new claims last week.
Claims for the prior week were remained unchanged at 213,000.
Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims dropped by 2,000 to 217,750 last week.
Commerce Department reported on Thursday U.S. the goods and services trade
deficit narrowed to $47.2 billion in October from a revised $51.1 billion in
the previous month (originally a gap of $52.5). This represented the lowest trade gap since May of 2018.
Economists had expected a deficit of $48.7 billion.
According to the report, the October decline in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $3.7 billion to $68.0 billion and an advance in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $20.8 billion.
Exports of goods and services from the U.S. fell 0.2 percent m-o-m to $207.1 billion in October, while imports dropped 1.7 percent m-o-m to $254.3 billion.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit rose 1.3 percent from the same period in 2018. Exports declined less than 0.1 percent, while imports grew 0.2 percent.
Analysts at Danske Bank note that the main market mover yesterday was a Bloomberg article quoting U.S. trade officials as saying that the U.S. and China was moving closer to a phase one deal.
FX Strategists at UOB Group believe the strong momentum in the Kiwi Dollar remains well in place and could push NZD/USD to the 0.66 neighbourhood, a key hurdle.
Canada's merchandise trade deficit likely to widen in October – TDS
Analysts at TD Securities are expecting that Canada’s merchandise trade deficit to widen to $2.0bn in October from $0.98bn (market: -$1.4bn).
“It will likely be reflecting a large drop in motor vehicle exports after the US GM strike led to a parts shortage across Canadian auto plants. This will contribute to a broader pullback in export activity while a modest decline in imports will provide a partial offset.
At 7:45 ET, we will hear from BoC Deputy Governor Tim Lane who will deliver an economic progress report following Wednesday's decision. Lane's speech will include an audience Q&A, with an official press conference scheduled to follow at 9:20 ET.”
GBP/USD targets 1.3190 – UOB
FX Strategists at UOB Group suggested that GBP/USD could now extend the upside to the 1.3190 area in the next weeks.
"24-hour view: While our view for GBP to strengthen was not wrong, the pace and the extent of the advance came as a surprise. GBP blew past several strong resistance levels with ease and hit a high of 1.3120. Strong upward momentum suggests there is scope for GBP to move above the major mid- to long-term resistance at 1.3140. That said, any further advance is likely to exhaust itself before the next resistance at 1.3190. On the downside, 1.3055 is expected to be strong enough to hold any intraday pull-back (minor support is at 1.3075).
Next 1-3 weeks: While our view for ‘GBP to advance’ from yesterday (04 Dec, spot at 1.2995) was correct, our expectation that ‘1.3070 may not come into the picture so soon’ was wrong. The sudden and rapid acceleration in momentum led to GBP surging to an overnight high of 1.3120. From here, all eyes are at the long-term resistance of 1.3140 (declining trend line on the weekly chart). In view of the vastly improved momentum, a break of this level would not be surprising and would shift the focus to the next resistance at 1.3190 (above this level there is hardly any resistance level of note until 1.3380). On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved markedly higher to 1.2995 from yesterday’s level of 1.2925. On a shorter-term note, 1.3055 is already a strong level.”
Analysts at TD Securities note that the market is projecting the trade deficit to shrink further at the start of Q4 to USD -48.6bn in October from -52.2bn in the month before.
FX Strategists at UOB Group thought EUR/USD could attempt a move higher to the 1.1125 level.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Thursday that Japan would make necessary preparations for a trade deal with the United States to come into effect in January.
Japan’s upper house of parliament on Wednesday approved the deal, which cuts tariffs on U.S. farm goods and Japanese machine tools. The lower house endorsed it last month.
President Donald Trump is expected to sign the implementing proclamation for the United States next week, according to United States Trade Representative.
The two leaders agreed in September to allow four months to consult on further bilateral trade talks after the initial deal goes into effect.
According to estimates from Eurostat, in October 2019 compared with September 2019, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade decreased by 0.6% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.4% in the EU28. Economists had expected a 0.3% decrease in the euro area. In September 2019, the retail trade volume decreased by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.1% in the EU28. In October 2019 compared with October 2018, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU28. Economists had expected a 2.2% increase in the euro area.
In the euro area in October 2019, compared with September 2019, the volume of retail trade decreased by 1.1% for non-food products, while food, drinks and tobacco increased by 0.3% and automotive fuels by 0.6%. In the EU28, the volume of retail trade decreased by 0.8% for non-food products while food, drinks and tobacco increased by 0.2% and automotive fuels by 0.6%.
In the euro area in October 2019, compared with October 2018, the volume of retail trade increased by 2.3% for non-food products, by 1.4% for automotive fuel and by 0.3% for food, drinks and tobacco. In the EU28, the retail trade volume increased by 2.8% for non-food products, by 2.0% for automotive fuel, and by 0.9% for food, drinks and tobacco.
Eurostat said, the number of persons employed increased by 0.1% in both the euro area and the EU28 in the third quarter of 2019 compared with the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2019, employment increased by 0.2% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU28.
Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 0.9% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2019 (after +1.2% and +1.0% respectively in the second quarter of 2019).
Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that in the third quarter of 2019, 241.5 million people were employed in the EU28, of which 160.1 million were in the euro area. These are the highest levels of employment ever recorded in both areas. More specifically, the number of persons employed has increased by 11.4 million in the euro area and 17.4 million in the EU28 since the lowest level of employment after the financial crisis (2013 Q2 for euro area, 2013 Q1 for EU28).
According to an estimate published by Eurostat, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.2% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.3% in the EU28 during the third quarter of 2019, compared with the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2019, GDP had grown by 0.2% in both zones.
Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.2% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2019, after also +1.2% and +1.4% respectively in the previous quarter.
During the third quarter of 2019, household final consumption expenditure rose by 0.5% in both the euro area and in the EU28 (after +0.2% and +0.3% respectively in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 0.3% in both zones (after +5.7% and +4.3% respectively). Exports increased by 0.4% in the euro area and 1.0% in the EU28 (after +0.2% and -0.5% respectively). Imports increased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU28 (after +2.8% and +0.5% respectively). Household final consumption expenditure had a positive contribution to GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU28 (both +0.3 percentage points – pp) and the contribution from gross fixed capital formation was also positive (+0.1 pp in both zones).
According to the report from IHS Markit, eurozone construction companies saw a marginal rise in activity during November, extending the current sequence of expansion to three months. The weak rate of growth was roughly in line with that recorded in October, as an increase in housing activity offset falls among commercial and civil engineering firms. Meanwhile, new order growth quickened to its fastest in nine months and firms reported the sharpest rise in headcounts for five months. Construction input costs continued to rise solidly, but the pace of inflation was the slowest since October 2016.
Little-changed at 50.6 in November from 50.7 in October, the
Eurozone Construction PMI signalled a marginal rise in total construction activity, with the rate of growth broadly consistent with that in October. Germany posted a moderate increase, whilst activity in France was broadly flat and Italian constructors recorded a decline.
Finally, firms remained optimistic of an increase in activity over the coming year, on balance. Although the degree of positivity weakened from October to the lowest since September 2016.
According to figures released today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the UK new car market fell -1.3% in November, with 156,621 models registered. This maintains the downward trend for new car registrations throughout 2019, as multiple factors, including weak business and consumer confidence, economic uncertainty and confusion over diesel and clean air zones, combined to affect demand.
In November, the decline was driven primarily by weak private demand, registrations down -6.1%, while the business market also fell, down -3.2%, but fleet registrations fared better, up 2.8%. For the second consecutive month, total alternatively fuelled vehicle (AFV) registrations reached a record market share, with more than one in 10 cars joining UK roads either hybrid, plug-in hybrid or pure electric – equivalent to 16,052 cars.
Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said: "These are challenging times for the UK new car market, with another fall in November reflecting the current climate of uncertainty. It’s good news, however, to see registrations of electrified cars surging again, and 2020 will see manufacturers introduce plenty of new, exciting models to give buyers even more choice.".
Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, sees the BoE keeping the monetary conditions unchanged at its meeting later this month.
“Despite the dovish tilt at its November meeting, we expect the BoE to be in a wait-and-see stance. We believe that with two dissenters against a large majority is still somewhat premature in tipping the balance for a rate cut, especially with a no-deal Brexit scenario off the immediate agenda. We would prefer to wait for the outcome of the impending election and its subsequent impact on how Brexit may proceed before making changes to our forecasts”.
Tariffs must be cut if China and the United States are to reach an interim agreement on trade, the Asian nation's commerce ministry said, sticking to its stance that some U.S. tariffs must be rolled back for a phase one deal.
"The Chinese side believes that if the two sides reach a phase one deal, tariffs should be lowered accordingly," ministry spokesman Gao Feng told reporters, adding that both sides were maintaining close communication.
On a telephone call last week, China's lead trade negotiator Vice Premier Liu He discussed "core issues of concern" with U.S. Trade representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
Completion of a phase one deal between the world's two biggest economies had been initially expected in November, ahead of a new round of U.S. tariffs set to kick in on Dec. 15, covering about $156 billion of Chinese imports.
Danske Bank analysts suggest that the main factor driving markets is news on the US-China trade talks , which has caused rising volatility in markets over the past days due to conflicting signals from the US side.
“Today's data highlight is the final Q3 GDP estimate from the euro area, which will provide more details on the sub-components of the national account. We look out for what drove the 0.2% q/q growth rate in Q3, as signs have increasingly indicated that the strong domestic demand seen so far has started to feel the pinch as well. US initial jobless claims are also on the calendar today”, Danske Bank said.
Newly-appointed Bank of Japan board member Harada said on Thursday that he saw no need to take additional policy steps as the central bank's yield curve control would yield synergy effects with the government's fresh economic stimulus spending.
Harada also said the central bank should stick to its 2% inflation target, which has helped the economy improve and stabilised the currency market because it is perceived as the "global standard."
Harada, a vocal proponent of reflationist policy, was speaking to reporters after delivering a speech to local business leaders in the southwestern city of Oita.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research discusses AUD medium-term outlook through 2020. BofAML targets AUD/USD at 0.70 in Q1 and 0.73 in Q4 of 2020.
"Assuming a meaningful trade deal between the US and China, we expect AUD to recover through 2020. We have revised up our end-2019 forecast slightly to 0.69 (previously 0.67) to reflect the rising probability of tariff rollback. We expect a further gradual uptrend in AUD/USD in 2020 as trade issues dissipate and the Australian economy recovers. We continue to forecast AUD/USD to end 2020 at 0.73," BofAML adds.
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced stimulus measures to support growth in an economy contending with an export slump, natural disasters and the fallout from a recent sales tax increase.
The total stimulus package amounts to around 26 trillion yen ($239 billion) spread over the coming years, with fiscal measures around half that figure, according to a draft. The stimulus will boost real growth by about 1.4 percentage point, the draft said.
The extra spending comes amid a rising awareness around the world that more government help is needed to keep economies growing in the face of a global slowdown that is exposing the limits of relying on central banks do the heavy lifting of economic management.
Abe described the stimulus as a three-pillared package designed to aid disaster relief, protect against downside economic risks and prepare the country for longer-term growth after the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. He said the stimulus would be funded by a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year ending in March, and special measures in the following year. The draft indicated that finding for the measures in the extra budget would be around 4.3 trillion yen.
While the package was slightly larger than expected, the single-digit size of fresh spending measures left markets largely unimpressed.
Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) said that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in October 2019 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.4% on the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase. For September 2019, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 1.5% compared with August 2019 (provisional: +1.3%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had decreased in October 2019 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 1.4% on the previous month.
Domestic orders decreased by 3.2% and foreign orders rose 1.5% in October 2019 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were up 11.1%, new orders from other countries decreased 4.1% compared to September 2019.
In October 2019 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders increase by 0.7% compared with September 2019. The manufacturers of capital goods showed decreases of 1.1% on the previous month. For consumer goods, an increase in new orders of 0.3% was recorded.
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1081
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 110269 contracts (according to data from December, 4) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5885);
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3110
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 6 is 31796 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (5892);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 35511 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (2280);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.12 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 4
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
|Raw materials||Closed||Change, %|
|Index||Change, points||Closed||Change, %|
|00:30||Australia||Retail Sales, M/M||October||0.2%||0.3%|
|07:00||Germany||Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)||October||1.3%||0.3%|
|10:00||Eurozone||Employment Change||Quarter III||0.2%||0.1%|
|10:00||Eurozone||Retail Sales (MoM)||October||0.1%||-0.3%|
|10:00||Eurozone||Retail Sales (YoY)||October||3.1%||2.2%|
|10:00||Eurozone||GDP (QoQ)||Quarter III||0.2%||0.2%|
|10:00||Eurozone||GDP (YoY)||Quarter III||1.2%||1.2%|
|12:45||Canada||Gov Council Member Lane Speaks|
|13:30||U.S.||Continuing Jobless Claims||1640||1650|
|13:30||U.S.||Initial Jobless Claims||213||215|
|13:30||Canada||Trade balance, billions||October||-0.98||-1.37|
|13:30||U.S.||International Trade, bln||October||-52.5||-48.7|
|15:00||U.S.||FOMC Member Quarles Speaks|
|15:00||Canada||Ivey Purchasing Managers Index||November||48.2||53.8|
|21:30||Australia||AiG Performance of Construction Index||November||43.9|
|23:30||Japan||Labor Cash Earnings, YoY||October||0.8%||1.1%|
|23:30||Japan||Household spending Y/Y||October||9.5%||-3%|
Az itt közzétett anyagok kizárólag tájékoztató jellegűek, a kizárólag erre való támaszkodás veszteségekhez vezethet. A múltbeli teljesítmények nem jelentenek garanciát a jövőbeli eredményekre. Kérjük olvasd el kockázati felhívásunk.
Kockázati figyelmeztetés: A Forex és CFD-k kereskedelme a fedezeten magas kockázati szintet hordoz, és nem minden befektető számára alkalmas. A CFD-k összetett eszközök, és nagy a kockázata annak, hogy a tőkeáttétel miatt gyorsan veszítik a pénzüket. A lakossági befektetői számlák 69% -a pénzt veszít a CFD-k kereskedelmében ezzel a szolgáltatóval. Fontolja meg, hogy tisztában van-e a CFD-k működési módjával, és hogy megengedheti-e magának a magas kockázat ellenére, hogy elveszítse a pénzét. Vegye figyelembe a tapasztalatait és a pénzügyi helyzetét. A TeleTrade arra törekszik, hogy minden szükséges információt és védintézkedést biztosítson Önnek, de ha a kockázatok még mindig nem tisztázottak, kérjen tanácsot független tanácsadónktól.
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A vállalat a pénzügyi eszközök piacairól szóló irányelv (MiFID) szerint működik.
A honlapon található információk csak tájékoztató jellegűek. Valamennyi általunk nyújtott szolgáltatást és információt megbízható forrásból szereztek be. A TeleTrade-DJ Nemzetközi Tanácsadó Kft. ("TeleTrade") és / vagy a harmadik féltől származó információszolgáltatók a szolgáltatásokat és információkat mindenféle garancia nélkül nyújtják. Ezen információk és szolgáltatások felhasználásával elfogadja, hogy a TeleTrade semmilyen körülmények között nem vállal felelősséget semmilyen személy vagy szervezet számára az ilyen információk és szolgáltatások iránti bizalmuk által okozott károkért.
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A CFD összetett eszköz, és a tőkeáttétel miatt a hirtelen veszteség jelentős kockázatával jár. Ennél a szolgáltatónál a lakossági befektetői számlák 69% -án veszteség keletkezik a CFD-kereskedés során. Fontolja meg, hogy érti-e a CFD-k működését és hogy megengedheti-e magának a veszteség magas kockázatát.