Θεμελιώδη Ανάλυση. 8 Νοεμβρίου 2018

I. Market focus

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) did not surprise the markets. As widely expected, New Zealand’s regulator did not make any changes to the policy stance, leaving the cash rate unchanged at 1.75 percent. The central bank also decided not to make significant changes to the accompanying statement and adhere to a neutral tone at a press conference, although strong labor market data, which were released the day before, raised expectations the regulator's rhetoric could be toughened. The only noticeable change was the shift in the Bank’s forecast for the first rate increase from the third quarter to the second quarter of 2020. The outcomes of the RBNZ meeting did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the New Zealand dollar, which, however, managed to keep near the previous day’s highs by the beginning of the European session.

A relative calm prevailed in the global financial markets at the beginning of Thursday’s session. Moderate optimism continued to predominate in the stock markets, as the outcome of the midterm elections in the United States was generally positively assessed by market participants, who (probably falsely) believe that a divided Congress (Democrats gain control of the House, while Republicans still control Senate) would allow Trump's economic policies to continue, while keeping a check on the president's aggressive trade actions.

On Thursday, the main scheduled event will be the completion of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the outcomes of which are set to be announced at 19:00 GMT. The regulator’s November meeting is not extended, so it will not be accompanied by the update of economic outlooks and the press conference of the Fed’s chairman. It is not expected that the Fed will make any changes to the parameters of its monetary policy or will change the tone of its accompanying statement significantly.

The stock market participants continue to assess the earnings reports of companies. Today, the focus will be on the results from QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM), Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU) и Square, Inc. (SQ), which were released after the close of yesterday’s trading, as well as from Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS-B), AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) and Credit Suisse Group AG (CS), which will be published before the market opens.


II. The market highlights are:

The Ivey Business School Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), measuring Canada’s economic activity, rose to 61.8 in October from an unrevised 50.4 in September. Economists had expected the gauge to hit 50.9. A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease. Within sub-indexes, the employment measure increased to 54.3 last month from 51.6 in September, while the prices index surged to 72.6 from 68.8 in the prior month and the inventories indicator climbed to 60.9 from 51.8. At the same time, supplier deliveries gauge decreased to 43.8 in October from 47.5 in September.


The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that crude inventories rose by 5.783 million barrels to 431.787 million barrels in the week ended November 2. Economists had forecast a build of 2.433 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks increased by 1.852 million barrels to 228.021 million barrels, while analysts had expected a fall of 1.7 million barrels. Distillate stocks reduced by 3.465 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 2.0 million barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. rose to 11.600 million barrels per day from 11.200 million barrels per day in the previous week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.5 million barrels per day last week, up by 195,000 barrels per day from the previous week.


The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced on Wednesday its monetary policy decision, made at its November meeting. As widely expected, New Zealand’s regulator did not make any changes to the policy stance, leaving the cash rate unchanged at 1.75 percent. However, the RBNZ removed a line from its previous statements that its next rate move could be either up or down. Instead, it noted that both upside and downside risks remained to growth and inflation projections. According to policymakers’ expectation, the rate will be kept at the current level through 2019 and into 2020.


Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) reported on Thursday that the country’s current account surplus stood at JPY1.822 trillion in September compared to the JPY1.838-trillion surplus in August and JPY2.258-trillion surplus in the same month a year ago. Economists had forecast for a surplus of JPY1.773 trillion. According to the MoF’s report, Japan’s goods trade surplus amounted JPY323.3 billion compared to a JPY219.3-billion deficit in the previous month and a surplus of JPY858.3 billion in September 2017. Goods exports declined 0.9 percent y-o-y, while imports increased 8.0 percent y-o-y. The services account showed a deficit of JPY41.5 billion in September compared to a gap of JPY6.1 billion in August and a deficit of JPY57.1 billion in September of 2017. Meanwhile, the capital account posted a deficit of JPY6.6 billion, while the financial account recorded a surplus of JPY3.184 trillion.


The report released by the Cabinet Office on Thursday showed Japan's core machinery orders fell more than expected in September. According to the report, core machinery orders, an indicator of capital expenditures in the coming six to nine months, plunged 18.3 percent m-o-m in September, following an unrevised 6.8 percent m-o-m climb in August, while economists expected a 10.0 percent m-o-m increase. That marked the sharpest monthly drop on record.

According to the report, manufacturing orders plummeted 17.3  percent m-o-m in September, while non-manufacturing orders shrank 17.1 percent m-o-m. Orders from overseas dropped 12.5 percent m-o-m, while government orders increased 2.4 percent m-o-m and orders from agencies also rose 2.4 percent m-o-m. In y-o-y terms, core orders, which excludes those of ships and electricity, tumbled 7.0 percent in September, compared to a 12.6 percent y-o-y jump recorded in August and a 7.7 percent y-o-y gain projected by the economists.


The report from the National Bureau of Statistics of China revealed on Thursday the Chinese trade surplus widened less than forecast in October. According to the report, China’s exports surged 15.6 percent y-o-y last month to $159.72 billion compared to a 14.5 percent y-o-y increase in September and economists’ forecast of an 11.0 percent y-o-y growth. Meanwhile, the country’s imports jumped 21.4 percent y-o-y in October to $131.83 billion after a 14.3 percent y-o-y climb in the prior month, while economists had forecast a 14.0 percent y-o-y surge. Those trade flows produced a trade surplus of $34.01 billion in October, compared to a surplus of $31.70 billion in September and a surplus of $36.89 billion in September of 2017. Economists had expected a trade surplus of $35.00 billion in October.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market

The currency pair EUR/USD traded near the opening level, as investors took a breather after the previous day’s fluctuations in the pair, which were caused by the results of the midterm elections in the United States, as well as adjustments ahead of the announcement of the outcomes of the Fed meeting. Since the November meeting is not extended, it will not be accompanied by the update of economic outlooks and the press conference of the regulator’s chair. Another strong quarter of economic growth and job gains should keep the statement’s tone optimistic. It seems possible that the Fed may emphasize the recent volatility in financial markets, but policymakers have not appeared worried about the recent movements. Therefore, experts do not expect the Fed to signal any change to the current path of its monetary policy and believe that the Fed to leave its interest rates unchanged before hiking them again in December. Resistance level - $1.1549 (high of October 22). Support level - $1.1355 (low of November 5).

The currency pair GBP/USD consolidated near the opening level due to the lack of new catalysts. With an empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, traders will also focus today on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Tomorrow, the data on the UK’s GDP for the third quarter will be published. Overall, the UK economic growth has underwhelmed this year, with real GDP rising just 1.2 percent y-o-y in the second quarter. It is expected that the UK GDP grew by 1.5 percent y-o-y in the third quarter. Meanwhile, if economists’ full-year forecast for GDP growth of 1.2 percent y-o-y is realized, it will be the weakest annual GDP growth rate since 2009. Resistance level - $1.3257 (high of October 12). Support level - $1.2951 (low of November 2).

The currency pair AUD/USD rose moderately, approaching the previous day’s high. The pair was supported by data out of China, Australia's main trading partner. The report from the National Bureau of Statistics of China revealed the Chinese trade surplus widened in October. According to the report, China’s exports surged 15.6 percent y-o-y last month to $159.72 billion compared to a 14.5 percent y-o-y increase in September and economists’ forecast of an 11.0 percent y-o-y growth. Meanwhile, the country’s imports jumped 21.4 percent y-o-y in October to $131.83 billion after a 14.3 percent y-o-y climb in the prior month, while economists had forecast a 14.0 percent y-o-y surge. Those trade flows produced a trade surplus of $34.01 billion in October, compared to a surplus of $31.70 billion in September and a surplus of $36.89 billion in September of 2017. Economists had expected a trade surplus of $35.00 billion in October. Resistance level - AUD0.7314 (high of September 26). Support level - AUD0.7182 (low of November 5).

The currency pair USD/JPY rose slightly at the beginning of the session, but then pulled back to the opening level due to partial profit taking adjustments in positions by investors ahead of the release of the outcomes of the Fed meeting. In addition, the pair’s performance was also influenced by the data from Japan. Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) reported that the country’s current account surplus stood at JPY1.822 trillion in September compared to the JPY1.838-trillion surplus in August and JPY2.258-trillion surplus in the same month a year ago. Economists had forecast for a surplus of JPY1.773 trillion. At the same time, the report released by the Cabinet Office showed Japan's core machinery orders fell more than expected in September. According to the report, core machinery orders, an indicator of capital expenditures in the coming six to nine months, plunged 18.3 percent m-o-m in September, following an unrevised 6.8 percent m-o-m climb in August, while economists expected a 10.0 percent m-o-m increase. That marked the sharpest monthly drop on record. In y-o-y terms, core orders, which excludes those of ships and electricity, tumbled 7.0 percent in September, compared to a 12.6 percent y-o-y jump recorded in August and a 7.7 percent y-o-y gain projected by the economists. Resistance level - Y114.09 (high of October 5). Support level - Y112.54 (low of October 2).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,813.89

+2.12%

Dow

26,180.30

+2.13%

NASDAQ

7,570.75

+2.64%

Nikkei

22,486.92

+1.82%

Hang Seng

26,215.57

+0.26%

Shanghai

2,635.63

-0.22%

S&P/ASX

5,928.20

+0.53%


U.S. stock indexes closed solidly higher on Wednesday, helped by a rally in the information technology and healthcare sectors, following the outcome from the U.S. midterm elections that produced a split Congress. There was optimism in the market that a divided Congress would allow Trump's economic policies to continue while keeping a check on the president's aggressive trade actions.

Asian stock indexes closed mostly higher on Thursday, responding to positive signals from Wall Street overnight. Investors also digested China’s trade data for October and a raft of mixed data out of Japan. The Japanese equity benchmark, the Nikkei index, outperformed, as the recent depreciation of yen against the U.S. dollar supported the Japanese export-oriented companies.

European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 3.23% (0 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.45% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.40% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in December settled at $61.80 (+0.18%). The crude oil prices rose slightly, correcting after recent declines. The oil prices were also helped by the reports about discussions by OPEC and its allies of the possibility of reducing production again next year. The further growth, however, was limited by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA reported that crude inventories rose by 5.783 million barrels to 431.787 million barrels in the week ended November 2. Economists had forecast a build of 2.433 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks increased by 1.852 million barrels to 228.021 million barrels, while analysts had expected a fall of 1.7 million barrels. Distillate stocks reduced by 3.465 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 2.0 million barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. rose to 11.600 million barrels per day from 11.200 million barrels per day in the previous week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.5 million barrels per day last week, up by 195,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

Gold traded at $1,222.80 (-0.30%). Gold prices fell moderately, due to the strengthening of the U.S. currency. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.18 percent to 96.17. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)


07:45

France

Trade Balance

09:00

Eurozone

ECB Economic Bulletin

09:00

Eurozone

EU Economic Forecasts

13:15

Canada

Housing Starts

13:30

Canada

New Housing Price Index

13:30

U.S.

Continuing Jobless Claims

13:30

U.S.

Initial Jobless Claims

14:15

Eurozone

ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks

17:30

Switzerland

Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks

19:00

U.S.

Fed Interest Rate Decision

19:00

U.S.

FOMC Statement


Εστίαση Αγοράς
  • Irish PM Varadkar: Ideally Would Get Brexit Deal By Year End
  • The sentix overall index for Euro Area fell again in November from 11.4 to 8.8 points
  • UK consumer credit increased by £0.8bn in September
  • Spanish unemployment continues at its lowest levels in the last 9 years
Αποσπάσματα
Σύμβολο Προσφορά Ζήτηση Χρόνος
EURUSD
GBPUSD
XAUUSD
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDJPY
XAGUSD
XAGEUR

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