Ειδήσεις αγοράς

27 Σεπτεμβρίου 2022
  • 08:47

    EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls approach 0.9660 hurdle inside weekly triangle

    • EUR/USD grinds higher inside a three-day-old symmetrical triangle, keeps bounce off 20-year low.
    • RSI, MACD hints at further recovery but one-week-old resistance line adds to the upside filters.
    • Sellers could quickly jump back on the table if witnessing a clear break of 0.9600.

    EUR/USD renews intraday high around 0.9650, snapping a five-day downtrend, as buyers keep reins inside a short-term triangle heading into Tuesday’s European session. That said, the major currency pair takes rounds to 0.9660 by the press time.

    Given the MACD and RSI conditions favor the quote’s rebound from the two-decade low, EUR/USD buyers are likely to overcome the immediate hurdle surrounding 0.9660, including the stated triangle’s upper line.

    However, a downward sloping resistance line from September 20, close to 0.9710 at the latest, holds the key to the pair’s further advances.

    In a case where the EUR/USD buyers keep reins past 0.9710, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of September 20-25 downside, around 0.9810 can’t be ruled out.

    Alternatively, pullback moves need validation from the 0.9600 round figure, also including the stated triangle’s bottom.

    Following that, a south-run towards refreshing the multi-year low is more likely. In that case, the latest trough near 0.9550 may act as the next rest for the EUR/USD bears before a six-month-old descending support line, around 0.9470 by the press time.

    EUR/USD: Hourly chart

    Trend: Limited upside expected

     

  • 08:41

    Natural Gas Futures: Rising bets for further rebound

    CME Group’s flash data for natural gas futures markets noted open interest increased for the second session in a row on Monday, this time by around 1.3K contracts. Volume, instead, shrank for the second consecutive session, now by around 132.7K contracts, the largest single-day drop since August 12.

    Natural Gas now looks supported around $6.50

    Monday’s drop and rebound from the $6.50 region was on the back of rising open interest, which reinforces the continuation of the bullish move in prices of natural gas in the very near term. In the meantime, decent contention seems to have now emerged around $6.50.

  • 08:31

    Asian Stock Market: Indices rebound as DXY weakens, China’s growth in trouble, oil near $75.00

    • Asian stocks have rebounded as the DXY has turned subdued ahead of US Durable Goods data.

    • World Bank has cut growth projections for China amid Covid-19 issues and a real estate crunch.

    • The BOJ has announced an unscheduled bond-buying program.

    Markets in the Asian domain have rebounded as the US dollar index (DXY) has weakened after failing to sustain above the critical hurdle of 115.00. The DXY is witnessing pressure amid lower consensus for the US Durable Goods Orders data. As per the preliminary estimates, the apparels durables data will tumble by 1.1%.

    At the press time, Japan’s Nikkei225 gained 0.50%, ChinaA50 added 0.27% while Hang Seng dropped more than 1%.

    Chinese equities are getting support despite a decline in the growth projections by the World Bank. The giant lender believes that China’s longer zero-tolerance approach towards Covid-19 and the real estate crisis have trimmed its growth rate. Demand for steel, base metals, cement, and other building materials has declined firmly. Also, the eastern developing economies will perform better as much business will shift to them.

    In today’s session, the US Durable Goods Orders data will be of utmost importance. The economic data will remain subdued as higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and soaring core Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers have forced individuals to postpone their current purchasing plans.

    Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has announced an unscheduled bond-buying program. The central bank is offering to buy JPY 250 billion worth of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs).

    On the oil front, oil prices have displayed a less-confident rebound after dropping to nearly $75.00. The pullback move seems a result of a subdued performance by the DXY. The oil prices will continue to remain on the tenterhooks as fears of the global recession are skyrocketing.

     

  • 08:30

    NZD/USD faces some range bound near term – UOB

    FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang suggest NZD/USD could attempt some consolidation in the very near term.

    Key Quotes

    24-hour view: “We expected NZD to weaken further yesterday but we were of the view that ‘the next support at 0.5640 is unlikely to come into view for now’. Our view for NZD to weaken was not wrong even though NZD took out 0.5640 and dropped to 0.5627 before rebounding. The rebound amidst oversold conditions and slowing momentum suggests NZD is unlikely to weaken further. For today, NZD is more likely to trade between 0.5645 and 0.5730.”

    Next 1-3 weeks: “We turned negative in NZD about 2 weeks ago. As NZD dropped in line with our expectations, in our latest narrative from yesterday (26 Sep, spot at 0.5730), we indicated that NZD is expected to continue to weaken, possibly to 0.5640. Our view was not wrong even though we did not expect NZD to breach 0.5640 so quickly (low of 0.5627 in NY). Further weakness is not ruled out but oversold short-term conditions could lead to a couple of days of consolidation first. As long as 0.5800 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 0.5815 yesterday) is not breached, NZD is likely to weaken further. That said, the chance of a clear break of 0.5600 is not high for now.”

  • 08:27

    ECB’s Lane: We expect inflation to decrease significantly in 2023, with further decreases in 2024

    “Our interest rate hikes will slow demand in the economy,” said European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane.

    More to come

  • 08:26

    Crude Oil Futures: Potential bounce in the offing

    Considering preliminary readings from CME Group for crude oil futures markets, traders trimmed their open interest positions by nearly 3K contracts following four daily builds in a row at the beginning of the week. In the same line, volume dropped the most since September 15, this time by more than 186K contracts.

    WTI: Next on the upside comes $80.00

    Prices of the WTI retreated to the vicinity of the $76.00 mark on Monday against the backdrop of shrinking open interest and volume. That said, further decline seems unlikely for the time being and the door now looks open to a probable rebound with the immediate hurdle at the $80.00 mark per barrel.

  • 08:11

    GBP/USD: Scope for a potential visit to parity – UOB

    In the opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang, GBP/USD risks a probable drop to the parity zone.

    Key Quotes

    24-hour view: “While we expected GBP to weaken further yesterday, we were of the view that ‘1.0300 is likely out of reach for now’. However, GBP did not weaken further as it rebounded strongly to a high of 1.0934 before dropping back down to close at 1.0690 (-1.50%). The strong downward pressure has eased a tad and GBP is unlikely to revisit yesterday’s low of 1.0327. For today, GBP could continue to trade in a choppy manner and likely within a wide range of 1.0600/1.0900.”

    Next 1-3 weeks: “Our view from yesterday (26 Sep, spot at 1.0600) still stands. As indicated, in view of the impulsive downward acceleration, a further decline in GBP to 1.0000 is not ruled out. That said, deeply oversold short-term conditions suggest GBP could trade above yesterday’s low of 1.0327 for a few days first. On the upside, a break of 1.1000 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level from yesterday) would indicate that the weakness in GBP from about 2 weeks ago has stabilized.”

  • 08:04

    WTI licks its wounds near $77.00 as recession woes ebb, US macro, API inventories eyed

    • WTI rebounds from eight-month low as markets pare recent losses.
    • Fears of slowdown in demand, higher supply joined firmer US dollar to favor bears earlier.
    • Comments from Iraq, pullback in DXY join cautious optimism to underpin corrective bounce.
    • Recovery remains elusive as central banks stay hawkish, economic slowdown looms.

    WTI crude oil portrays a corrective bounce amid Tuesday’s quiet Asian session, around $77.10 by the press time of the pre-European session.

    In addition to the lack of data/events during early Tuesday, the US dollar’s pullback and hopes of avoiding the recession seem to have favored the energy benchmark’s recovery from the lowest levels since January 2020.

    That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from the 20-year high, down 0.40% intraday near 113.68 by the press time, as softer yields join downbeat US data and inflation expectations.

    That said, US Treasury yields retreat from the multi-year high while the S&P 500 Futures also print mild gains by the press time. That said, US 10-year Treasury yields rose to the highest levels in 12 years while the 2-year bond coupons refreshed the 15-year top as traders rushed to the risk safety. Further, Chicago Fed National Activity Index weakened to 0.0 in August versus 0.09 market expectations and an upwardly revised prior reading of 0.29. Further, the US inflation expectations as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, signaled that the gauges refreshed the multi-day low on Monday. While noting the details, the longer-term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level since July 13, 2022, whereas the 5-year benchmark slumped to the lowest levels since June 2021 with the latest figures being 2.32% and 2.33% respectively.

    Elsewhere, Iraq Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar on Monday said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, are monitoring the oil price situation, wanting to have a balance in the markets, per Reuters.

    Moving on, weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) Crude Oil Stock data, previous 1.035M, will join the US CB Consumer Confidence for September and Durable Goods Orders for August to determine short-term WTI moves.

    Overall, oil prices are likely to remain amid economic fears and a firmer US dollar.

    Technical analysis

    WTI bulls need to cross the previous support line from May 11, around $77.60 at the latest, to keep buyers hopeful.

     

  • 08:00

    Gold Futures: Rebound likely short term – UOB

    Open interest in gold futures markets resumed the downside and shrank by just 834 contracts on Monday, according to advanced prints from CME Group. Volume followed suit and dropped by around 28.4K contracts after four consecutive daily builds.

    Gold appears supported around $1,620

    Gold prices started the week on the defensive amidst shrinking open interest and volume, hinting at the likeliness that further losses look not favoured and therefore a potential rebound could be in the offing. In the meantime, decent contention has so far emerged around the $1,620 level per ounce troy.

  • 07:43

    USD/JPY Price Analysis: No man’s land hints at further consolidation

    • An ongoing inventory adjustment process has activated investors for a decisive move.
    • Overlapping 10-and-20-EMAs are still favoring a consolidation ahead.

    • The RSI (14) has witnessed some signs of exhaustion in the upside bias.

    The USD/JPY pair has slipped to near 144.27 in the Tokyo session after failing to sustain above the critical resistance of 144.50. The asset is continuously facing barricades above 144.50 despite multiple attempts. On a broader note, the asset is advancing sharply higher after hitting a low of 140.35.

    Considering the four-hour scale, the major is auctioning in an inventory adjustment process. It is critical to state that the adjustment process is an accumulation or distribution. Odds favor an inventory distribution as the asset is displaying signs of momentum loss.

    The asset price is overlapping with the 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which indicates a consolidation ahead.

    Scrutiny of the condition of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) displays that the oscillator is struggling to shift into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. This has come after the momentum oscillators displayed a range shift sign vertically to a bearish range of 20.00-40.00 from the bullish range.

    For a decisive bearish reversal, the asset is required to drop below Thursday’s low at 140.35. An occurrence of the same will drag the asset towards the August 30 low at 138.05 followed by the August 23 low at 135.81.

    Alternatively, the greenback bulls could drive the asset higher after overstepping Thursday’s high at 145.90, which will drive the asset towards the August 1998 high at 147.67. A breach of the latter will send the major towards the psychological resistance of 150.00.

    USD/JPY four-hour chart

     

  • 07:42

    EUR/USD risks further losses near term – UOB

    According to FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang, EUR/USD still risks a deeper pullback in the near term.

    Key Quotes

    24-hour view: “After EUR plunged below 0.9600 and snapped back up, we highlighted yesterday that while ‘the weakness in EUR has not stabilized, 0.9500 is unlikely to come under threat for now’. EUR subsequently rose to 0.9709 before dropping back down to close at 0.9606 (0.87%). Downward pressure has eased slightly and this combined with oversold conditions suggests EUR is likely to consolidate for today, expected to be between 0.9560 and 0.9700.”

    Next 1-3weeks: “There is no change in our view from yesterday (26 Sep, spot at 0.9630). As highlighted, the impulsive and outsized drop from last Friday suggests EUR could continue to weaken, possibly to 0.9500. Overall, the weakness in EUR from about 2 weeks ago is intact as long as EUR does not breach 0.9770 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 0.9810 yesterday).”

  • 07:41

    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD recovery needs validation from $19.10

    • Silver price jumps back beyond 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, off from two-week low.
    • RSI, MACD suggests further upside towards weekly resistance line.
    • Convergence of 200-SMA, previous support line from early September challenge bulls.
    • Sellers should break $18.30 before retaking the control.

    Silver price (XAG/USD) extends recovery from a fortnight low to $18.55 during early Tuesday morning in Europe.

    In doing so, the bright metal regains its place beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of September 01-12 upside, after a brief fall the previous day.

    Given the receding bearish bias of the MACD and the recently improving RSI (14) from the oversold territory, the XAG/USD prices are likely to approach a downward sloping resistance line from Friday, close to $18.70 at the latest.

    However, a confluence of the 200-SMA and the support-turned-resistance line from September 01, close to $19.10, appears a tough nut to crack for the metal sellers.

    If at all the silver price rallies beyond $19.10, the upside momentum won’t hesitate to challenge the monthly peak near $20.00.

    Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $18.50 acts as immediate support for the metal traders to watch for fresh impulse.

    Also acting as the downside filter is the broad horizontal support around $18.30-35, established on August 30.

    Silver: Four-hour chart

    Trend: Limited recovery expected

     

  • 07:24

    Goldman Sachs: Underweight equities as real yields rise – Bloomberg

    Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded equities to underweight in its global allocation over the next three months while remaining overweight cash, saying rising real yields and the prospect of a recession suggest the rout has further to run, per Bloomberg.

    Key quotes

    The US investment bank’s market-implied recession probability has increased to above 40% following the recent bond sell-off, “which historically has indicated elevated equity drawdown risk,” strategists including Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote in a note Monday. 

    Current levels of equity valuations may not fully reflect related risks and might have to decline further to reach a market trough.

    Real yields continue to be a major headwind.

    Goldman’s bearish take on equity allocation comes after its US strategists slashed their year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to 3,600 from 4,300 last week.

    Similarly, Europe strategists including Sharon Bell have reduced targets for European equity gauges, downgrading their 2023 earnings-per-share growth forecast for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to -10% from zero. 

    They have raised the recommendation for credit to neutral over the three-month horizon.

    Investment grade credit yields are looking attractive in both absolute terms and relative to equities, they wrote. 

    Also read: Forex Today: Panic took over financial markets

  • 07:11

    GBP/USD rebound pokes 1.0800 as BOE hesitates, DXY tracks yields ahead of key data

    • GBP/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high, extends bounce off all-time low.
    • US dollar pares recent gains amid sluggish session, softer data, inflation expectations add strength to the DXY pullback.
    • BOE resists taming GBP strength, UK policymakers refrain from reversing any measures announced recently.
    • US data, Fedspeak will be crucial for directions, bears are likely to keep reins amid pessimism surrounding UK.

    GBP/USD reverses the previous day’s heavy losses as it bounces off the all-time low to 1.0780 during early Tuesday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Cable pair renews intraday high while also snapping the five-day downtrend.

    The quote’s latest gains could be linked to the hopes from the UK Chancellor (Finance Minister) Kwasi Kwarteng that he will be able to restore investor confidence via his medium-term budget, after sending sent sterling and government bonds into freefall the previous day. Also, expectations that the Bank of England (BOE) won’t need to intervene to defend the British Pound (GBP) add strength to the GBP/USD rebound. “The threshold for the Bank of England intervening in the foreign-exchange market to stabilize the pound is high,” said the HSBC Bank.

    British finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng will set out a "Medium-Term Fiscal Plan" on Nov. 23, alongside growth and borrowing forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, Britain's finance ministry said on Monday. The news also quotes the British Finance Ministry as saying, "The Fiscal Plan will set out further details on the government's fiscal rules, including ensuring that debt falls as a share of GDP in the medium-term."

    On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from the 20-year high, down 0.40% intraday near 113.68 by the press time, as softer yields join downbeat US data and inflation expectations.

    That said, US Treasury yields retreat from the multi-year high while the S&P 500 Futures also print mild gains by the press time. That said, US 10-year Treasury yields rose to the highest levels in 12 years while the 2-year bond coupons refreshed the 15-year top as traders rushed to the risk safety. Further, Chicago Fed National Activity Index weakened to 0.0 in August versus 0.09 market expectations and an upwardly revised prior reading of 0.29. Further, the US inflation expectations as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, signaled that the gauges refreshed the multi-day low on Monday. While noting the details, the longer-term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level since July 13, 2022, whereas the 5-year benchmark slumped to the lowest levels since June 2021 with the latest figures being 2.32% and 2.33% respectively.

    It should be noted that the scathing response to the UK Chancellor Kwarteng’s mini-budget triggered fears of more pain for the British economy and dragged the cable to an all-time low, backed by the hawkish Fedspeak. Adding to the downside fears was the BOE’s inaction afterward.

    To sum up, GBP/USD is likely to extend the latest corrective bounce but the upside potential is limited ahead of the US CB Consumer Confidence for September and Durable Goods Orders for August. Also important to watch are headlines from Britain.

    Also read: US Consumer Confidence Preview: Near-term relief or more risk aversion?

    Technical analysis

    GBP/USD rebound needs validation from the 1.1000 psychological mark to aim for the previous support line from May, around 1.1270-80 by the press time. Otherwise, a pullback towards the year 1985 bottom close to 1.0520 and then to the recent low near 1.0340 can’t be ruled out.

     

  • 07:00

    AUD/USD struggles below 0.6500, upside looks likely, US Durable Goods Orders in focus

    • AUD/USD has faced hurdles around 0.6500 amid Harris-Albanese chatters.

    • World Bank has cut growth forecasts for China and has hiked same for eastern developing nations.

    • A lower-than-expected US Durable Goods data will bring more correction in the DXY.

    The AUD/USD pair is witnessing a mild correction after hitting a high of 0.6495 in the early Tokyo session. Earlier, the asset rebounded firmly after dropping to near 0.6437 as the risk-off profile was heightened. As investors have started shrugging off the negative market sentiment, commodity-linked currencies have displayed a pullback move. Also, lower consensus for the US Durable Goods Orders data has weakened the US dollar index (DXY).

    Meanwhile, a mix of news wires on China’s growth projections, and communication between Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and US Vice President Kamala Harris has sidelined the aussie investors.

    World Bank has cut growth projections for China considering its longer zero-tolerance approach towards Covid-19 and real estate crisis as reported by Wall Street Journal. Covid-19 restrictions suspended the movement of men, materials, and machines, which resulted in lower production outputs. While, the real estate crunch trimmed demand for base metals, steel, and other building materials dramatically. WSJ further added that developing economies in East Asia would grow faster than China this year for the first time since 1990.

    Australian Albanese has congratulated US Harris on the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. This came after US Harris announced that the economy will work on peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region with Australia.

    In today’s session, the US consumer durables data will hog the limelight. The economic data is expected to decline by 1.1% as individuals are postponing their demand for durable goods amid sky-rocketing core price rise index and soaring interest rates. A lower-than-expected reading would shift the DXY into a corrective mode.

     

  • 06:18

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD aims establishment above $1,630 as DXY skids, US data eyed

    • Gold prices need stabilization above $1,630.00 for an upside towards $1,650.00.

    • The DXY is displaying a lackluster performance amid lower consensus for Consumer Durables data.

    • Fed Powell will dictate the roadmap of hiking interest rates for the remaining 2022.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) has extended its gains to near $1,630.00 after rebounding from $1,621.14 on Monday. The precious metal is eyeing an establishment above $,1630.00 as the US dollar index (DXY) is displaying a vulnerable performance right from the opening tick.

    The DXY is facing signs of exhaustion amid lower consensus for the US Durable Goods Orders data. As per the consensus, investors will find a decline in the economic data by 1.1% against a decline of 0.1% recorded in precious reading. Thanks to the soaring core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and accelerating interest rates, which have trimmed the demand for durable goods. As the Federal Reserve (Fed) has pushed interest rates to 3-3.75%, households will face higher interest obligations. Therefore, individuals are preferring to postpone the demand rather than liabiling themselves for higher payouts. Also, a higher inflation rate has trimmed the confidence of consumers broadly.

    Apart from that, the speech from Fed chair Jerome Powell will also remain in focus, which is due on Wednesday. Fed Powell will provide the roadmap for hiking interest rates for the remaining 2022.

    Gold technical analysis

    Gold prices have bounced back sharply from $1,621.14 after a negative divergence formation on an hourly scale. A loss in downside momentum was observed when the precious metal printed a lower low while the momentum oscillator Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) made a higher low.

    The asset has crossed the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,629.43 and is oscillating the 50-EMA around $1,632.35. The horizontal resistance is placed from Monday’s high at $1,649.83.

    Gold hourly chart

     

     

  • 06:02

    EUR/USD snaps five-day downtrend near 0.9650 with eyes on ECB’s Lagarde, US data

    • EUR/USD prints the first daily gains in six around 20-year low.
    • Markets consolidate recent moves amid light calendar, mixed headlines.
    • Hawkish central bankers, energy crisis keeps bears hopeful despite immediate rebound.
    • US CB Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, ECB’s De Guindos should also be eyed for fresh impulse.

    EUR/USD picks up bids to add strength to the early Asian session rebound near 0.9650. Even so, the major currency pair remains sidelined as traders await the key catalysts while paring the latest losses at the two-decade low on Tuesday.

    The major currency pair’s latest gains could be linked to the softer US data and downbeat inflation expectations, as well as the light calendar during the early day. Also keeping the pair buyers hopeful are the latest hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) officials and hopes of easing the energy crisis as the bloc plan to delay enforcing a price cap on Russian oil imports, per Bloomberg.

    ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday, per Reuters, that the depreciation of the euro has also added to the build-up of inflationary pressures. “We expect to raise interest rates further over the next several meetings,” added ECB’s Lagarde. The policymaker also mentioned that they will decide whether further policy action is needed once they reach the neutral rate

    Before that, ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said, “In my opinion, the ECB must maintain the basic principles of gradualism and flexibility as the problem it faces is different than that faced by the Fed in the US.” On the same line, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said that future rate hikes will depend on incoming macroeconomic data.

    It should be noted, however, that Germany’s Economist from the IFO conveyed economic fears after witnessing downbeat prints for September and noted that retail business expectations are at historic lows. “A big minus on all fronts, almost all sectors of the economy are in the minus, the German economy is facing a recession,” stated the IFO Economist.

    On the other hand, Chicago Fed National Activity Index weakened to 0.0 in August versus 0.09 market expectations and an upwardly revised prior reading of 0.29. Even so, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, per Reuters, “Getting inflation down will require slower employment growth, somewhat higher unemployment rate”. Following that, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Monday that if there is an error to be made, better that the Fed do too much than to do too little.

    That said, the US inflation expectations as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, signaled that the gauges refreshed the multi-day low on Monday. While noting the details, the longer-term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level since July 13, 2022, whereas the 5-year benchmark slumped to the lowest levels since June 2021 with the latest figures being 2.32% and 2.33% respectively.

    Against this backdrop, the yields pause the rally and the S&P 500 Futures also print mild gains around the monthly low.

    Moving on, a speech from ECB President Lagarde and Vice President Luis De Guindos will join the US CB Consumer Confidence for September and Durable Goods Orders for August to direct short-term EUR/USD moves. However, the economic fears surrounding the old continent and the Fed versus the ECB divergence may keep the bears hopeful.

    Also read: US Consumer Confidence Preview: Near-term relief or more risk aversion?

    Technical analysis

    EUR/USD stays bearish inside a six-month-old downward sloping trend channel, currently between 0.94875 and 1.0000.

     

  • 05:36

    Sources: Some of China's fund managers, brokers called by regulators to help stabilize stock market – Reuters

    During Tuesday’s Asian session, Reuters came out with the news quoting anonymous source saying, “Some of China's fund managers, brokers called by regulators to help stabilize stock market ahead of the 20th party congress.”

    The two sources also mentioned that regulators ask financial institutions to avoid trading activities that may cause big fluctuations in the securities market.

    The instructions were give through the so-called "window guidance", with no written documents, one of the sources said per Reuters.

    Market reaction

    The news fails to witness any major reaction from the markets as the consolidation move continues. USD/CNH, however, hesitates in extending the pullback from two-year high.

    Also read: USD/CNH struggles to cheer softer DXY above 7.0000 on pessimism surrounding China

  • 05:30

    Japan’s Matsuno: Lodged severe protest to Russian ambassador

    Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said on Tuesday, “Lodged severe protest to Russian ambassador to Japan,” while also adding that he told Japan needs to take "equivalent steps" after Russia's detention of Japanese consulate.

    Key quotes

    Japanese consul detained in Russia did not engage in any illegal activity.

    Extremely regrettable that Russia’s FSB took Japanese consul into custody in intimidating manner.

    Russia’s detention of Japanese consul is extremely regrettable, unacceptable and unbelievalbe.

    Japanese consul detained in Russia is already released, no problem with health condition.

    On a different page, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki mentioned that they will continue to monitor the forex market.

    Also read: BoJ announces unscheduled bond buying operation

  • 05:30

    Commodities. Daily history for Monday, September 26, 2022

    Raw materials Closed Change, %
    Silver 18.373 -2.21
    Gold 1623.75 -1.17
    Palladium 2043.24 -0.87
  • 05:12

    USD/CNH struggles to cheer softer DXY above 7.0000 on pessimism surrounding China

    • USD/CNH bulls take a breather around 16-month high after six-day uptrend.
    • DXY retreats amid sluggish session, light calendar in Asia.
    • World Bank’s downbeat economic forecasts for China precede downbeat data from Beijing to favor CNH bears.
    • US data, risk catalysts can entertain traders, bulls are likely to keep the reins.

    USD/CNH pares the first daily loss in seven around 7.6150 as it fails to cheer a pullback in the US dollar amid downbeat catalysts surrounding China. In doing so, the offshore Chinese currency (CNH) pair also portrays the market’s anxiety ahead of the key US data.

    “Economic growth in East Asia and the Pacific will weaken sharply in 2022 due to China's slowdown, but the pace of expansion will pick up next year, the World Bank said on Tuesday,” per Reuters. The news Also mentioned that the Washington-based lender said in a report it expected 2022 growth in the East Asia and Pacific region, which includes China, to slow to 3.2%, down from its 5.0% forecast in April, and the previous year's growth of 7.2%. The weaker forecast was due mainly to a sharp slowdown in China, caused by its strict zero-COVID rules that have disrupted industrial production, domestic sales and exports, the World Bank said.

    On the same line, China’s Industrial Profits YTD dropped to -2.1% in August versus -1.1% prior. Also, China's central bank stepped up cash injection towards the quarter-end by making the biggest daily offering in seven months on Tuesday, per Reuters, which in turn favor USD/CNH buyers.

    That said, US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from the fresh 20-year high marked the previous day as traders recalibrate emanating from the GBP/USD’s slump to the all-time low. Also weighing on the US dollar are the upbeat Treasury yields.

    That said, US Treasury yields retreat from the multi-year high while the S&P 500 Futures also print mild gains by the press time. That said, US 10-year Treasury yields rose to the highest levels in 12 years while the 2-year bond coupons refreshed the 15-year top as traders rushed to the risk safety. Further, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, per Reuters, “Getting inflation down will require slower employment growth, somewhat higher unemployment rate”. Following that, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Monday that if there is an error to be made, better that the Fed do too much than to do too little.

    Furthermore, the recent softer US data and inflation expectations should have also weighed on the USD/CNH prices.

    Chicago Fed National Activity Index weakened to 0.0 in August versus 0.09 market expectations and an upwardly revised prior reading of 0.29. Further, the US inflation expectations as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, signaled that the gauges refreshed the multi-day low on Monday. While noting the details, the longer-term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level since July 13, 2022, whereas the 5-year benchmark slumped to the lowest levels since June 2021 with the latest figures being 2.32% and 2.33% respectively.

    However, the fears of more central bank intervention, even as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced reserve-related moves the previous day, keep the USD/CNH buyers hopeful. That said, the US CB Consumer Confidence for September and Durable Goods Orders for August will be crucial to watch for intraday guidance.

    Also read: US Consumer Confidence Preview: Near-term relief or more risk aversion?

    Technical analysis

    USD/CNH remains on the bull’s radar unless breaking a two-week-old support line, around 7.0900 by the press time.

     

  • 04:49

    GBP/JPY dribbles around 155.50 amid BOE vs. BOJ action, pullback in yields

    • GBP/JPY licks its wounds with mild gains around 14-month low.
    • BOE refrained from any action but BOJ announced unchanged bond buying to tame JPY weakness.
    • US Treasury bond yields retreat after refreshing multi-year high.
    • Bears are likely to keep the reins amid fears of more central bank meddling.

    GBP/JPY consolidates the previous day’s losses around 155.60 as traders seek more clues amid the mixed performance of the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). That said, the cross-currency pair snapped a four-day uptrend during Tuesday’s Asian session after the latest BOJ bond-buying announcement.

    Early on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced an unscheduled monetary policy operation to defend the Japanese yen and tame the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields.

    “The operations, which followed a rise in global yields overnight, were consistent with remarks by BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday that the BOJ will not raise interest rates and will maintain an easy policy to support the economy,” stated the NewsRoom via Reuters. The news also mentioned that the BOJ offered to buy JPY150 billion of JGBs with a remaining life of 5 to 10 years and JPY100 billion of JGBs with a remaining life of 10 to 25 years.

    Elsewhere, the BOE refrained from taking any immediate actions and weighed on the GBP, Before the latest rebound in the GBP/JPY. That said, when asked whether the government is planning to change the measures set out in the mini-budget, British Prime Minister Lis Truss' spokesman responded by simply saying "no," as reported by Reuters. The diplomat also mentioned that it is important that BOE independence remains while adding that we don’t comment on interest rates.

    On the other hand, the BOE stated that they are monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of the financial assets. The BoE further noted that they welcome the government’s commitment to sustainable economic growth and the role of the Office for Budget Responsibility.

    Elsewhere, The UK Times stated that Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against (UK Chancellor) Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.

    Amid these plays, US Treasury yields retreat from the multi-year high while the S&P 500 Futures also print mild gains by the press time. That said, US 10-year Treasury yields rose to the highest levels in 12 years while the 2-year bond coupons refreshed the 15-year top as traders rushed to the risk safety. Further, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, per Reuters, “Getting inflation down will require slower employment growth, somewhat higher unemployment rate”. Following that, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Monday that if there is an error to be made, better that the Fed do too much than to do too little.

    Moving on, a light calendar can allow a bit more consolidation of the GBP/JPY losses. However, the bearish bias is less likely to fade.

    Technical analysis

    Although the 200-DMA restricts GBP/JPY upside around 160.35-40, a 1.5-year-old horizontal support area near 148.45-55 appears a tough nut to crack for the bears.

     

  • 04:43

    AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears lurking in weekly resistance

    • USD/CAD bears could be about to move in from weekly resistance.
    • The daily chart's harmonic pattern is bearish.

    USD/CAD is reaching into a key resistance area and a correction could be imminent on the longer term charts as the following analysis will illustrate across the weelkly and daily charts.

    USD/CAD weekly chart

    The price has run into a weekly chart's resistance area and while there is every possibility that the rally will continue, the following will draw the bear's attention:

    USD/CAD daily chart

    The harmonic pattern is bearish and the price that is meeting resistance would be anticipated to turn lower in a correction that could see a 50% mean reversion play out that has a confluence with the prior resistance of November 2020.

  • 04:33

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Downside bias halts for a while on hammer formation

    • A hammer candlestick formation indicates that pound bulls are trying to make a comeback.

    • Declining 10-and20- EMAs still favors a downside bias.

    • An oversold situation by the RSI (14) cannot be ruled out.

    The GBP/USD pair has advanced firmly after dropping to near 1.0356 as a responsive buying action kicked in. In the Asian session, the cable delivered an upside break of the consolidation formed in a narrow range of 1.0633-1.0724. The asset is expected to extend its gains above 1.0800 and will march towards 1.0900 ahead.

    On a daily scale, the formation of a long Hammer candlestick pattern has triggered the chances of a pullback ahead. The formation of the above-mentioned single candlestick pattern indicates an activation of a ‘value bet’ phenomenon after an asset decline like a house of cards. Also, the downward sloping trendline placed from June 14 low at 1.1934 will act as a major barricade for the counter.

    The 10-and-20-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 1.1120 and 1.1335 are declining sharply, which adds to the downside filters.

    Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oscillating in a bearish range of 20.00-40.00 for a longer period. Therefore, an oversold situation cannot be ruled out.

    A break above Monday’s high at 1.0931 will activate the Hammer formation and will send the cable towards the round-level resistance at 1.1000, followed by 10-EMA at 1.1120.

    On the flip side, the cable will lose significance further if drops below Monday’s low at 1.0339, which will drag the asset towards the round-level support at 1.0200. A slippage below the latter will direct the cable towards parity.

    GBP/USD daily chart

     

  • 04:28

    USD/CHF Price Analysis: Extends pullback from four-month-old hurdle towards 0.9900

    • USD/CHF takes offers to refresh intraday low, snaps four-day uptrend near three-month high.
    • Overbought RSI, short-term resistance line direct sellers towards previous resistance line from July.
    • Bulls have a bumpy road to refresh the yearly high.

    USD/CHF renews intraday low around 0.9910 as it prints the first daily loss in five during Tuesday’s Asian session.

    In doing so, the Swiss currency (CHF) pair reverses from a downward sloping resistance line from May. Also adding strength to the corrective move could be the overbought RSI conditions.

    With this, the quote is on the way to the resistance-turned-support line from July, around 0.9850. However, July’s peak of 0.9885 may probe the intraday sellers of the USD/CHF pair.

    It should be noted, however, that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s May-August downturn, near the 0.9800 threshold, could also test the bears before directing them toward the 100-DMA support level near 0.9685.

    Alternatively, recovery moves need to cross the aforementioned resistance line, at 0.9950 by the press time, to recall the USD/CHF buyers.

    Following that, the 1.0000 psychological magnet and multiple hurdles around 1.0050 can test the bulls before highlighting the yearly peak of 1.0065.

    Overall, USD/CHF is likely to witness further downside but the bears are far from taking control.

    USD/CHF: Daily chart

    Trend: Limited weakness expected

     

  • 04:21

    USD/CNY fix: 7.0722 vs. the previous fix of 7.0298

    In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 7.0722 vs. the previous fix of 7.0298 and the previous close of 7.1344.

    About the fix

    China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland.

    The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled.

    Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

  • 04:16

    BoJ announces unscheduled bond buying operation

    The Bank of Japan has announced an unscheduled bond buying operation and offers to buy jpy250bln worth of JGB and includes JPY150bln 5-10 year, JPY100bln 10-25 year.

     

  • 04:16

    China growth to fall behind rest of Asia for first time since 1990 – FT

    “China’s economic output will lag behind the rest of Asia for the first time since 1990, according to new World Bank forecasts that highlight the damage wrought by Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policies and the meltdown of the world’s biggest property market,” said the Financial Times (FT).

    “The World Bank has revised down its forecast for gross domestic product growth in the planet’s second-largest economy to 2.8 per cent compared with 8.1 per cent last year, and down from its prediction made in April of between 4 and 5%,” per the FT news that rolled out on early Tuesday.

    Key quotes

    At the same time, expectations for the rest of east Asia and the Pacific have improved. The region, excluding China, is expected to grow at 5.3 per cent in 2022, up from 2.6 per cent last year, thanks to high commodity prices and a rebound in domestic consumption after the pandemic.

    The Washington-based group’s latest forecast follows a series of financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Nomura, slashing their outlook for next year, too. The rise in pessimism is based on assessments that Xi would probably pursue his zero-Covid policy beyond 2022.

    By contrast, economies in east Asia and the Pacific, particularly the export-driven economies of south-east Asia, are mostly expected to grow faster and have lower inflation in 2022.

    Also read: AUD/USD bears take a breather at two-year low near 0.6450, risk-aversion, US data eyed

  • 04:03

    NZD/USD bounces off 2.5-year low towards 0.5700 on RBNZ’s Orr, NZ FinMin’s comments

    • NZD/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high, snaps two-day downtrend near the multi-month low.
    • RBNZ’s Orr signals little bit more to do, NZ FinMin sees gradually easing inflation.
    • A pause in the risk-off mood also favor corrective pullback amid a quiet session.
    • US data, risk catalysts will be crucial for fresh impulse as buyers are far from taking control.

    NZD/USD consolidates recent losses around the lowest level since March 2020, up 0.75% intraday near 0.5680, as it snaps a two-day downside during Tuesday’s Asian session.

    The quote’s latest rebound could be linked to the light calendar, as well as comments made by Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr and New Zealand's Finance Minister (FinMin) Grant Robertson.

    Earlier in the day, RBNZ’s Orr said that the central bank still had some work to do but the tightening cycle was already very mature. After him, "The global economy is a tough place to be at the moment. There are still issues coming out of Europe, obviously, with the war in Ukraine, issues in China," NZ FinMin Robertson said in an interview on state-owned TVNZ, per Reuters.

    Also helping the NZD/USD buyers could be the recently softer US data and inflation expectations that raised questions on the hawkish Fedspeak.

    That said, Chicago Fed National Activity Index weakened to 0.0 in August versus 0.09 market expectations and an upwardly revised prior reading of 0.29. Further, the US inflation expectations as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, signaled that the gauges refreshed the multi-day low on Monday. While noting the details, the longer-term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level since July 13, 2022, whereas the 5-year benchmark slumped to the lowest levels since June 2021 with the latest figures being 2.32% and 2.33% respectively.

    With this, US Treasury yields retreat from the multi-year high while the S&P 500 Futures also print mild gains by the press time.

    However, the market’s anxiety remains intact amid fears of multiple central banks’ actions to tame the heavy slump of respective currencies like the GBP/USD.

    Also important will be US CB Consumer Confidence for September and Durable Goods Orders for August.

    Also read: US Consumer Confidence Preview: Near-term relief or more risk aversion?

    Technical analysis

    Although oversold RSI triggered the NZD/USD pair’s rebound, the support-turned-resistance line from May 12, around 0.5900 by the press time, holds the key to the buyer’s conviction.

     

  • 03:57

    EUR/GBP declines towards 0.8900 as focus shifts to ECB Lagarde’s speech

    • EUR/GBP is declining towards 0.8900 as the cross has weakened after surrendering 0.9000.

    • Eurozone Consumer Confidence is dropping continuously for the past year.

    • UK’s GDP is expected to remain steady this week.

    The EUR/GBP pair has witnessed a vertical fall after facing barricades around 0.9000 in the early Tokyo session. On a broader note, the cross is declining after failing to sustain above the crucial resistance of 0.9200. The asset is expected to decline further to near 0.8900 ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech.

    ECB’s Lagarde will likely dictate the likely monetary policy action ahead. ECB policymaker is expected to continue its hawkish stance on interest rate guidance as price pressures are escalating and are needed to be contained sooner. Energy prices are soaring sharply and are impacting the consumption expenditure of households.

    On Monday, ECB Governing Council member and German central bank head Joachim Nagel said that decisive rate hikes are needed amid rising risks of inflation expectations getting de-anchored. Nagel favored a decisive action to bring down the inflation rate to 2%.

    Apart from the ECB Lagarde’s speech, investors will also focus on the Eurozone Consumer Confidence data, which will release on Thursday. The sentiment data is seen steady at -28.8. Investors should be aware of the fact that the sentiment data is declining consecutively for the past few months.

    Meanwhile, pound bulls are focusing on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data release, which is due on Friday. The growth rate is expected to decline by 0.1% in line with the prior release. While the annual data will grow by 2.9% similar to the previous reading.

     

  • 03:30

    Stocks. Daily history for Monday, September 26, 2022

    Index Change, points Closed Change, %
    NIKKEI 225 -722.28 26431.55 -2.66
    Hang Seng -78.13 17855.14 -0.44
    KOSPI -69.06 2220.94 -3.02
    ASX 200 -105.3 6469.4 -1.6
    FTSE 100 2.35 7020.95 0.03
    DAX -56.27 12227.92 -0.46
    CAC 40 -14.02 5769.39 -0.24
    Dow Jones -329.6 29260.81 -1.11
    S&P 500 -38.19 3655.04 -1.03
    NASDAQ Composite -65.01 10802.92 -0.6
  • 03:28

    US Dollar Index pares gains at 20-year high, central banks, US data in focus

    • US Dollar Index renews intraday low, snaps two-day uptrend near the multi-year top.
    • Risk-aversion ebbs amid a light calendar, pre-data anxiety.
    • Fears of recession, central bank intervention joins firmer yields to propel DXY.
    • Firmer prints of the US CB Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders could amplify US dollar strength.

    US Dollar Index (DXY) takes offers to refresh its intraday low near 113.70 as it consolidates the latest gains around the two-decade high, marked the previous day, during Tuesday’s Asian session.

    In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies portrays the market’s indecision amid a light calendar as well as anxiety ahead of the key US data. Also challenging the US dollar bulls could be the recent softer US data and inflation expectations.

    That said, Chicago Fed National Activity Index weakened to 0.0 in August versus 0.09 market expectations and an upwardly revised prior reading of 0.29. Further, the US inflation expectations as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, signaled that the gauges refreshed the multi-day low on Monday. While noting the details, the longer-term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level since July 13, 2022, whereas the 5-year benchmark slumped to the lowest levels since June 2021 with the latest figures being 2.32% and 2.33% respectively.

    The DXY rallied to the highest levels since May 2002 on Monday as risk-aversion intensified after the GBP/USD pair’s slump to the all-time low. The sour sentiment also took clues from the firmer yields and the hawkish Fedspeak, as well as the fears that many central banks need to intervene to defend their respective currencies.

    The US 10-year Treasury yields rose to the highest levels in 12 years while the 2-year bond coupons refreshed the 15-year top as traders rushed to the risk safety. Further, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, per Reuters, “Getting inflation down will require slower employment growth, somewhat higher unemployment rate”. Following that, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Monday that if there is an error to be made, better that the Fed do too much than to do too little.

    Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed in the red but the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains at the latest.

    Moving on, today’s US CB Consumer Confidence for September and Durable Goods Orders for August will be crucial to watch for immediate directions. However, major attention will be given to the risk catalysts for clear guidance. Overall, the DXY is likely to remain firmer unless the scheduled data prints a major disappointment, which is less anticipated.

    Also read: US Consumer Confidence Preview: Near-term relief or more risk aversion?

    Technical analysis

    Although the failure to cross the May 2002 high of 115.32 joins the overbought RSI conditions to consolidate the latest DXY moves, the bulls remain hopeful unless witnessing sustained trading below the year 2001 bottom surrounding 111.30.

     

  • 03:26

    AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls eye a daily 38.2% Fibo correction

    • AUD/USD is on the verge of a test of key weekly support.
    • AUD/USD bulls could be about to make their moves.

    The Australian dollar hit fresh multi-year lows at the start of the week as investors moved into the safe-haven greenback after Britain's historic tax cuts plan added to market volatility. This has sent the high beta currency to a low of 0.6437 vs. the greenback, the lowest since May 2020. The following illustrates the prospects of a test of 0.64 the figure or a prolonged correction from here prior to the next significant move to the downside.

    AUD/USD weekly chart

    There are significant prospects of a correction at this juncture, as per the structure highlighted on the chart above and below. 

    AUD/USD daily chart

    A Fibonacci scale drawn on the latest bearish leg on the daily chart shows prospects of a correction towards the 38.2% ratio ahead of a 50% mean reversion back to test the daily support.

  • 03:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Monday, September 26, 2022

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.64535 -0.87
    EURJPY 139.023 0.23
    EURUSD 0.96081 -0.63
    GBPJPY 154.518 -0.22
    GBPUSD 1.06794 -1.09
    NZDUSD 0.5635 -1.69
    USDCAD 1.37351 0.89
    USDCHF 0.99323 1.11
    USDJPY 144.69 0.88
  • 03:11

    USD/JPY eyes weakness below 144.50 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders

    • USD/JPY is expecting a downside break of the crucial support of 144.50.

    • Higher interest obligations are a major reason behind a decline in demand for durable goods.

    • The BOJ needs to turn neutral to keep the impact of intervention in currency markets steady.

    The USD/JPY pair is displaying signs of momentum loss after displaying a juggernaut rally to near 144.70. A failure in smashing the psychological resistance of 145.00 has set the stage for a correction in the counter. The pair has attempted multiple times to hit 145.00 but has failed amid lower consensus for the US Durable Goods Orders data.

    According to the forecasts, the economic data will drop by 1.1% against a drop of 0.1% in the prior reading. Soaring price pressures have forced households to make significant changes in their consumption pattern and have compelled them to postpone their demand for durable goods.

    Escalating price rise index for durable goods and higher interest obligations due to monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has resulted in a decline in the demand for durable goods. Also, households are catering to their needs for essentials first due to higher payouts amid a higher inflation rate.

    It is worth noting that the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s intervention in the currency markets strengthened the Japanese yen against G-7 currencies except the US dollar index (DXY). The reason could be the heightened negative risk profile in which investors underpinned the greenback against yen. Market veterans believe that the impact of intervention won’t sustain for longer and the BOJ is needed to shift its stance and ditch the prudent approach.

    On the economic data front, the Statistics Bureau of Japan will report the Unemployment Rate, which is seen lower at 2.5% vs. The prior release of 2.6%. While the Job/Applicants Ratio will improve to 1.30 from the former figure of 1.29.

     

  • 03:02

    US inflation expectations refresh multi-day low despite strong yields

    US inflation expectations remain pressured on Monday, despite the latest rush to risk safety, which in turn propelled the US Treasury bond yields.

    The inflation precursors as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, signaled that the gauges refreshed the multi-day low. While noting the details, the longer-term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level since July 13, 2022, whereas the 5-year benchmark slumped to the lowest levels since June 2021 with the latest figures being 2.32% and 2.33% respectively.

    Behind the moves could be the mixed US statistics and the hawkish Fedspeak. That said, Chicago Fed National Activity Index weakened to 0.0 in August versus 0.09 market expectations and an upwardly revised prior reading of 0.29. Even so, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, per Reuters, “Getting inflation down will require slower employment growth, somewhat higher unemployment rate”. Following that, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Monday that if there is an error to be made, better that the Fed do too much than to do too little.

    Moving on, the softer US inflation expectations may test the US Dollar Index (DXY) bulls who keep the reins at a 20-year high of late.

    Also read: Forex Today: Panic took over financial markets

  • 02:56

    Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2.2%) in August: Actual (1.9%)

  • 02:45

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rebounds from 29-month low above $1,600, falling wedge, US data eyed

    • Gold price pares recent losses around multi-month low, snaps three-day downtrend.
    • A light calendar, wait for short-term key data allows traders to consolidate latest moves.
    • Risk-off mood, firmer yields weigh on XAU/USD prices.
    • US CB Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders eyed to extend corrective bounce.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) licks its wounds around a 2.5-year low, mildly bid near $1,627 during Tuesday’s Asian session, as the market’s risk-off mood ebbs amid a lack of major data/events. Even so, the market’s fears of recession and aggressive central bank actions keep exerting downside pressure on the metal prices ahead of the short-term key US data.

    The market’s scathing rejection of the new tax-cut measures triggered the GBP/USD slump to an all-time low, which in turn pushed the Bank of England (BOE) towards taking emergency measures to defend the British currency from the further free fall. However, the BOE rejected readiness to help the Cable and the same renewed the US dollar’s safe-haven demand.

    Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) updates surrounding the increase in the Forex reserves tried to defend the gold buyers recently but failed amid the risk-off mood. On the same line could be the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) praise to market meddling.

    The sour sentiment pushed market players to demand a premium and pushed the Treasury yields towards the north, which in turn joined the hawkish Fedspeak to propel the US dollar and weigh on the XAU/USD prices. Also portraying the risk-aversion was the downbeat performance of the global equities, tracked by Wall Street. Also exerting downside pressure on the gold price was the hawkish Fedspeak. Recently, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, per Reuters, “Getting inflation down will require slower employment growth, somewhat higher unemployment rate”. Following that, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Monday that if there is an error to be made, better that the Fed do too much than to do too little.

    That said, the latest inaction in the market, as traders take a breather after a long day amid a light calendar, is likely to fade over time as the US CB Consumer Confidence for September and Durable Goods Orders for August could entertain the traders.

    Technical analysis

    Gold price activates recovery from the 2.5-year low inside a weekly falling wedge bullish chart pattern. The corrective bounce, however, lacks follow-through amid sluggish RSI.

    That said, the quote needs to cross the $1,642 hurdle to confirm the falling wedge breakout, which in turn could propel the XAU/USD, at least theoretically, towards the $1,710. That said, the 200-HMA level surrounding $1,665 could act as an extra filter to the north.

    Alternatively, pullback moves need validation from the latest swing low near $1,620, a break of which could direct gold price towards the $1,600 threshold and then to the 4.5-month-old descending support line, near $1,575 at the latest.

    Gold: Hourly chart

    Trend: Corrective bounce expected

     

  • 02:43

    EUR/USD Price Analysis: Prospects of a significant correction from key monthly structure

    • EUR/USD bears move in on a critical area of support.
    • There are prospects of a significant correction should the 0.96s hold up.

    The US dollar strengthened on Monday on a volatile day to start the week which had EUR/USD slipping to 0.9552 from 0.9694. The single currency has dropped to a major level on the monthly chart and the following illustrates the market structure and prospects of either a deeper move lower or a significant correction.

    EUR/USD monthly charts

     

    The weekly charts above see the price of the euro running into a monthly support area following a major move to the downside. Should the price extend further lower on a break of the current structure at 0.9595, a move to 0.9445 guards the 0.9240s and 0.9100s.

    EUR/USD weekly chart

    On the other hand, a reversion as per the weekly chart, above, and the daily chart, below, could be in order for the foreseeable future prior to the next move to the downside should this current support around 0.9600 the figure hold up.

    EUR/USD daily chart

    On the daily chart, we have confluences of the 78.6% and 61.8% ratios aligning with resistance structures at levels that would require a prolonged commitment from the bulls.

  • 02:36

    AUD/JPY sees a downside to near 93.00 ahead of BOJ minutes

    • AUD/JPY is likely to continue its five-day losing spree after slipping below 93.15.

    • BOJ’s minutes will dictate the rationale behind sounding dovish on interest rates.

    • As per the consensus, Caixin Manufacturing PMI will improve to 49.9 vs. 49.5 reported earlier.

    The AUD/JPY pair has tested the downside break of the consolidation formed in a narrow range of 93.30-94.00 in the early Tokyo session. The breakdown test seems successful and the asset has started declining towards the critical support of 93.00. For the past two weeks, the asset is declining like a house of cards. The cross is expected to continue its five-day losing streak after dropping below the immediate support of 93.15.

    The Japanese yen has displayed sheer strength for the past few weeks as investors were already expecting the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s intervention in the currency markets to support the depreciating yen. Japanese officials believe that the current yen price is not justifying the fundamentals and should be supported by one-sided down moves.

    Going forward, the release of the BOJ’s minutes on Wednesday will be in focus. The minutes will provide the rationale behind adopting a ‘dovish’ stance on interest rates. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is focusing on injecting liquidity into the economy to restorative the growth rates recorded in the pre-pandemic era. Also, the inflation rate is needed to maintain around the desired rate to step up growth projections.

    This week, the Japanese economic calendar is full of economic events. Statistics Bureau of Japan will report the Unemployment Rate, which is seen lower at 2.5% vs. The prior release of 2.6%. While the Job/Applicants Ratio will improve to 1.30 from the former figure of 1.29.

    On the Australian front, Caixin Manufacturing PMI data will be keenly watched. As per the consensus, the economic data will improve to 49.9 from the prior reading of 49.5. A higher-than-expected PMI data will support the aussie bulls. It is worth noting that Australia is a leading trading partner of China and Chinese PMI data have a significant impact on the aussie bulls.

     

  • 02:27

    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Hovers around the 50/100-DMAs around 139.00

    • On Monday, the EUR/JPY finished the session trading positively, gaining 0.15%.
    • The daily chart depicts the pair as neutral-biased.
    • Short term, the EUR/JPY  is headed to the downside and might test the 137.00 figure in the near term.

    As the Asian Pacific session begins, the EUR/JPY barely drops 0.04%, courtesy of a risk-off impulse, due to increasing recession fears, as central banks continue to tighten monetary policy conditions, while the UK government unveiled a program of tax cuts, aimed to stimulate the already battered economy. At the time of writing, the EUR/JPY is trading at 138.99, below its opening price.

    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    The EUR/JPY tumbled below the confluence of the 50 and 100-day EMA during Monday’s session, influenced by the fall in the GBP/JPY. On its way south, the EUR/JPY reached a fresh monthly low of around 137.36, but a seven-month-old upslope support trendline capped the fall, and the pair bounced toward current spot prices. Even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) tumbled to negative territory, EUR/JPY’s failure to break below the 200-EMA keeps the neutral bias intact.

    In the near term, the EUR/JPY bias turned negative once the exchange rate tumbled below the 200-EMA, while the 20-day EMA dropped under the former, signaling that sellers begin to gather momentum. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38, in bearish territory, further cements the downward bias.

    Therefore, the EUR/JPY first support would be the daily pivot at 138.65. Break below will expose the S1 pivot at 137.78, followed by the upslope trendline above-mentioned at around 137.00, ahead of the S2 daily pivot at 136.51.

    EUR/JPY Key Technical Levels

     

  • 02:17

    USD/CAD eases from two-year high above 1.3700 as oil bears pause ahead of US macro

    • USD/CAD probes five-day uptrend, retreats from 28-month top.
    • Risk-aversion underpinned US dollar, drowned oil prices amid fears of aggressive central bank actions, recession.
    • US Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence will be important for immediate directions.
    • Rush to risk safety can keep USD/CAD buyers hopeful even if the US data disappoints.

    USD/CAD bulls take a breather around 1.3730 during Tuesday‘s Asian session, after a five-day uptrend to refresh the yearly top. That said, the Loonie pair’s latest weakness could be linked to a halt by the oil bears, Canada’s key export item, as well as the market’s wait for the important US data.

    US Dollar Index (DXY) jumped to a fresh 20-year high the previous day as traders sought safety against the risks emanating from the GBP/USD’s slump to the all-time low. Also keeping the US dollar firmer were the upbeat Treasury yields and the signals that many central banks will be forced to defend their currencies against the greenback.

    The risk-off mood joined the firmer US dollar to weigh on the WTI crude oil that dropped 3.70% to poke the yearly low near $76.00, around 76.60 by the press time. Additionally, chatters that Germany will manage energy reserves to make it through this winter, even amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis, kept the black gold pressured.

    Furthermore, downbeat US data and hawkish Fedspeak also propelled the USD/CAD prices. Chicago Fed National Activity Index weakened to 0.0 in August versus 0.09 market expectations and an upwardly revised prior reading of 0.29. Even so, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, per Reuters, “Getting inflation down will require slower employment growth, somewhat higher unemployment rate”. Following that, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Monday that if there is an error to be made, better that the Fed do too much than to do too little.

    Amid these plays, the yields rally as the traders sought premium to hold riskier assets while the equities dropped, which in turn helped the US dollar to remain firmer.

    Looking forward, the USD/CAD bulls are likely to keep reins despite the latest pullback. However, the US CB Consumer Confidence for September and Durable Goods Orders for August will be crucial to watch for intraday guidance.

    Also read: US Consumer Confidence Preview: Near-term relief or more risk aversion?

    Technical analysis

    A broad resistance area established between April and May 2020, respectively around 1.3830 and 1.3850, challenge USD/CAD buyers amid overbought RSI conditions. The anticipated pullback, however, needs validation from June 2020 top near 1.3715.

     

  • 01:50

    USD/CHF displays signs of exhaustion above 0.9950, US Durable Goods Orders data eyed

    • USD/CHF is expected to witness more losses below 0.9920 as momentum loss kicks in.

    • A steep rise in core CPI data already indicated a subdued demand for US Durable Goods.

    • This week, the release of the ZEW Survey- Expectations will be of utmost importance.

    The USD/CHF pair has slipped to near 0.9928 after failing to sustain above the critical hurdle of 0.9950 in the late New York session. The asset is auctioning in a minor inventory adjustment process and is expected to extend its correction further, however, the upside remains favored amid broader strength in the US dollar index (DXY).

    On Monday, the asset witnessed a juggernaut rally after delivering an upside break of the consolidation formed in a tad wider range of 0.9757-0.9850. Investors shielded themselves behind the safe-haven asset as the risk profile turned vulnerable. Russia-linked negative sentiment has renewed fears of terrorism and chances of a nuclear attack.

    Going forward, the DXY will dance to the tunes of the US Durable Goods Orders data. Considering the market consensus, the economic data will decline by 1.1% vs. The prior decline of 0.1%. Soaring prices for durable products have trimmed advance orders for the economic data.

    One could understand from the fact that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained upbeat for August. The core inflation rate reading was 6.3%, higher than the estimates of 6.1% and the prior release of 5.9%. Therefore, higher prices for durable goods have postponed their purchases.

    Also, escalating interest rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed) are resulting in higher credit obligations to households, which have also forced them to ditch current purchases for durable goods.

    Meanwhile, the Swiss franc investors are awaiting the release of the ZEW Survey- Expectations, which indicates the business conditions, employment conditions, and day-to-day business activities. The sentiment data is expected to improve to -48.5 vs. The prior release of -56.3. An occurrence of the same will support the Swiss franc.

     

  • 01:46

    GBP/USD retreats towards 1.0600 as bears again eye record low on BOE’s hesitance

    • GBP/USD resumes downside towards the all-time low after a corrective bounce.
    • BOE refrains from early intervention, UK government rules out scope for canceling mini-budget.
    • Pessimism in the UK contrasts with the hawkish Fedspeak, firmer yields to favor US dollar.
    • Bears can keep reins and can dig deeper, US Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence eyed.

    GBP/USD fades bounce off the all-time low marked on Monday, easing to 1.0670 during the early Asian session on Tuesday, as pessimism surrounding the UK remains intact. Also exerting downside pressure on the Cable pair is the hawkish Fedspeak ahead of the week’s key US data.

    Be it the newly formed British government or the Bank of England (BOE), both disappointed the GBP/USD traders the previous day by turning down the hopes of meddling to defend the British Pound (GBP).

    When asked whether the government is planning to change the measures set out in the mini-budget, British Prime Minister Lis Truss' spokesman responded by simply saying "no," as reported by Reuters. The diplomat also mentioned that it is important that BOE independence remains while adding that we don’t comment on interest rates.

    On the other hand, the BOE stated that they are monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of the financial assets. The BoE further noted that they welcome the government’s commitment to sustainable economic growth and the role of the Office for Budget Responsibility.

    Elsewhere, The UK Times stated that Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against (UK Chancellor) Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.

    On the other hand, Chicago Fed National Activity Index weakened to 0.0 in August versus 0.09 market expectations and an upwardly revised prior reading of 0.29. Even so, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, per Reuters, “Getting inflation down will require slower employment growth, somewhat higher unemployment rate”. Following that, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Monday that if there is an error to be made, better that the Fed do too much than to do too little.

    Amid these plays, the yields rally as the traders sought premium to hold riskier assets while the equities dropped, which in turn helped the US dollar to remain firmer.

    Moving on, headlines from the UK will be crucial for the short-term direction of the GBP/USD pair. However, major attention could be given to the US CB Consumer Confidence for September and Durable Goods Orders for August will be crucial to watch for intraday guidance. That said, the bears are likely to keep the reins and may dominate further if the scheduled US data offers a positive surprise.

    Also read: US Consumer Confidence Preview: Near-term relief or more risk aversion?

    Technical analysis

    Unless crossing a previous support line from May, around 1.1270-80 by the press time, GBP/USD remains vulnerable to dropping towards the record low.

     

  • 01:31

    NZD/USD plunges to two and half-year lows around 0.5620s on sour sentiment

    • On Monday, the NZD/USD plunged to levels last seen on March 2020.
    • Risk aversion is the game’s name, due to increased recession jitters, alongside UK’s tax cuts, adding to inflationary pressures.
    • NZD/USD traders eye Durable Good Orders, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, and Fed Chief Jerome Powell.

    On Monday, the NZD/USD plunged more than 1% or 107 pips, as risk aversion hit the markets, with global equities trading in the red, amidst growing concerns of a worldwide recession, following a week of 500 bps of tightening by central banks. Additionally, tax cuts in the UK added to the country’s inflationary pressures, despite the ongoing tightening cycle by the Bank of England (BoE). As the Asian Pacific session begins, the NZD/USD is trading at 0.5635, slightly down by 0.01%.

    NZD/USD fell towards the 0.5420s on risk-off impulse

    The lack of economic data kept investors leaning towards market sentiment and US dollar dynamics. Last week’s 75 bps by the Fed, and expectations of the Federal funds rate (FFR) to finish at around 4-4.4% levels, augmented appetite for the safe-haven US dollar. Consequently, US Treasury bond yields rose, with the short-end of the curve, namely 2s and 5s, breaching the 4% threshold, while the US 10-year T-bond yield climbed towards 3.93%.

    In the meantime, the US Dollar Index refreshed two-decade highs at around 114.53, a headwind for the NZD/USD, which began trading on Monday at 0.5740 and reached a daily high of 0.5754 before plummeting toward the daily low at 0.5625.

    Elsewhere, Fed officials crossed newswires on Monday. The Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed that further tightening is needed to temper inflation and emphasized that the unemployment rate should rise to achieve the Fed goal. Echoing her comments was Cleveland’s Fed President Loretta Mester, alongside Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic

    What to watch

    On Tuesday, the US economic docket will feature Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, and further Fed speaking, led by Chair Jerome Powell.

    The New Zealand calendar is empty, leaving traders adrift to US dollar dynamics.

    NZD/USD Key Technical Levels

     

  • 01:10

    AUD/USD bears take a breather at two-year low near 0.6450, risk-aversion, US data eyed

    • AUD/USD pauses two-day downtrend at 28-month low, paring losses of late.
    • Risk-off mood joined firmer yields to weigh on the pair.
    • Panic selling of the GBPUSD, calls for central bank intervention contributed to the sour sentiment.
    • Bears are likely to keep reins amid light calendar, corrective bounce can’t be ruled out.

    AUD/USD justified its risk-barometer status as markets panicked on Monday before traders lick their wounds near 0.6460 during Tuesday’s early Asian session. The quote’s latest weakness could be linked to the broad pessimism amid the GBP/USD pair’s plunge that raised concerns over multiple central bank interventions.

    GBP/USD slumped to an all-time low on Monday amid the market’s scathing rejection to the new tax-cut measures, fearing more burden on the monetary policymakers and fiscal budget. The same triggered speculations that the Bank of England (BOE) needs to intervene to defend the domestic currency, allowing the cable to pare some losses. However, the British central bank refrained from any immediate moves and renewed the selling of the Cable.

    At home, the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) updates surrounding the increase in the Forex reserves tried to defend the AUD/USD buyers recently but failed amid the risk-off mood.

    The sour sentiment pushed market players to demand a premium and pushed the Treasury yields towards the north, which in turn joined the hawkish Fedspeak to propel the US dollar and weigh on the AUD/USD prices. Also portraying the risk-aversion was the downbeat performance of the global equities, tracked by Wall Street.

    On Monday, Chicago Fed National Activity Index weakened to 0.0 in August versus 0.09 market expectations and an upwardly revised prior reading of 0.29. Even so, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, per Reuters, “Getting inflation down will require slower employment growth, somewhat higher unemployment rate”. Following that, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Monday that if there is an error to be made, better that the Fed do too much than to do too little.

    That said, AUD/USD traders are likely to witness hardship in extending the latest rebound amid economic fears. With that in mind, today’s US CB Consumer Confidence for September and Durable Goods Orders for August will be crucial to watch for immediate directions.

    Also read: US Consumer Confidence Preview: Near-term relief or more risk aversion?

    Technical analysis

    Despite the latest pause in the downside, a clear break of the four-month-old bearish channel’s support line, now resistance around 0.6500, keeps AUD/USD bears hopeful of visiting the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of April-August moves, near 0.6360.

     

  • 01:10

    EUR/USD oscillates above 0.9600 as investors await US Durable Goods Orders data

    • EUR/USD has turned sideways around 0.9610 as the focus shifts to US Durable Goods Orders data.

    • Costly durable goods and accelerating interest rates have trimmed consensus for US economic data.

    • ECB Lagarde’s speech will provide cues for likely monetary policy action ahead.

    The EUR/USD pair is displaying back-and-forth moves in a narrow range of 0.9600-0.9627 in the early Tokyo session. The asset has turned sideways as investors are awaiting the release of the US Durable Goods Orders data. Earlier, the asset displayed a responsive buying action after dropping to near 0.9550 on Monday. The asset witnessed a steep fall on negative market sentiment, which forced the market participants to dump risk-perceived currencies further.

    As per the preliminary estimates, the US Durable Goods Orders are expected to decline by 1.1% against the prior decline of 0.1%. As the price rise index for core products is scaling higher, households have ditched their purchases and are spending in seldom on essentials. Inflation-adjusted payouts and subdued earnings have forced them to alter their expenditure pattern.

    Apart from them, accelerating interest rates are compelling households to postpone their spending on durable goods. Payment for durable goods on credit is attracting extremely higher interest obligations. Therefore, the economic data seems grim ahead.

    On the Eurozone front, investors are awaiting cues on likely monetary policy action will be provided from the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech. The situation of the inflation rate is vulnerable in the Eurozone, therefore ‘hawkish’ guidance is highly expected.

    On Monday, ECB Governing Council member and German central bank head Joachim Nagel said that decisive rate hikes are needed amid rising risks of inflation expectations getting de-anchored. Nagel favored a decisive action to bring down the inflation rate to 2%.

     

  • 00:21

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears eye a test of $1,600

    • Gold continues to bleed out with a focus on a break below $1,600.
    • The US dollar is pulling in the flows as markets move strongly risk averse. 

    Gold is sliding into fresh lows after being held back by the bears below $1,650 on corrections on Monday. The yellow metal dropped to the lowest in more than two years while the US dollar extends its bull cycle on recession fears and rising interest rates. US bond yields have also moved up and are reaching their highest in more than a decade.

    The ICE dollar index has touched 114.53, the highest since 2002 while the yields on the US 10-year note have rallied to their highest since 2008 at around 3.93%. The rise comes following the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point hike in interest rates and the promise of further increases as the central bank looks to quell inflation. This has been a weight for gold since it offers no interest to investors in the search for yield. 

    ''An added concern for the US Treasury market is that should a round of coordinated FX market intervention to weaken the USD occur, it would probably involve sales of US Treasuries by foreign central banks,'' analysts at ANZ Bank said.

    Meanwhile, Wall Street fell deeper into a bear market at the start of this week with the S&P 500 and Dow closing lower as investors fretted that the Federal Reserve's aggressive campaign against inflation. With the Fed signaling last Wednesday that high-interest rates could last through 2023, the S&P 500 has relinquished the last of its gains made in a summer rally. The Dow is now down 20.5% from its record high close on Jan. 4. 

    ''We see the potential for continued outflows from money managers and ETF holdings to weigh on prices moving forward, which ultimately raises the probability of a pending capitulation from the small number of family offices and proprietary trading shops that hold complacent length in gold,'' analysts at TD Securities said.

    ''In this context, while prices are certainly weak, precious metals' price action could still have further to fall as the restrictive rates regime is set to last for longer. Given that the momentum in underlying inflation trends is persistently inconsistent with the Fed's target, we have changed our terminal rate forecast from 4.25-4.50% to 4.75-5.00%, with not only a 75bp hike in November and 50bp in December but also 25bp rate increases in February and March.''

    Gold technical analysis

    As per the start of the week's pre-open analysis, Gold, Chart of the Week: XAU/USD thrown to the bears at the edge of the abyss, the price has continued to bleed out having broken key structures. $1,600 is calling with a focus on $1,575.

  • 00:14

    WTI drops to fresh eight-month-lows below $74.50 per barrel on buoyant US dollar

    • WTI is falling close to 4% on Monday on recession fears.
    • Fed policymakers emphasized the need for further rate increases as inflation remains stickier.
    • The US Dollar Index extended its gains and recorded a fresh 20-year high at 114.53, a headwind for oil prices.

    On Monday, the US crude oil benchmark, also known as WTI (Western Texas Intermediate), drops for the second straight day after sliding from above the $80 per barrel figure to the mid $70-$80s range. At the time of writing, WTI is exchanging hands at $76.31 per barrel, down by 3.63%.

    Oil prices fell on emerging recession fears

    Worries about a global economic slowdown are mounting, as energy prices have shown. Last week’s 75 bps rate hike by the Fed, alongside another 425 bps of worldwide central banks, fueled worries of a recession. Therefore, WTI remains defensive, as lower demand implies lower prices.

    Sources cited by Reuters said, “With more and more central banks being forced to take extraordinary measures no matter the cost to the economy, demand is going to take a hit which could help rebalance the oil market.”

    Another factor weighing US crude oil prices is the rapid rise of the greenback. The US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value vs. a basket of six currencies, edges up 0.98% at 114.128, a headwind for oil and US dollar-denominated commodities.

    Elsewhere, Fed officials crossed newswires on Monday. The Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed that further tightening is needed to temper inflation and emphasized that the unemployment rate should rise to achieve the Fed goal. Echoing her comments was Cleveland’s Fed President Loretta Mester, alongside Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic.

    Oil traders’ attention turns to further US economic to be released ahead of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)  and allies reunion, to be hosted on October 5. The US calendar will feature durable good orders, consumer confidence, and further Fed speaking, led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, on Tuesday.

    WTI Daily Chart

    WTI Key Technical Levels

     

  • 00:00

    South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 91.4, above expectations (87.2) in September

27 Σεπτεμβρίου 2022
Εστίαση Αγοράς
Αποσπάσματα
Σύμβολο Προσφορά Ζήτηση Χρόνος
AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
XAGEUR
XAGUSD
XAUUSD

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