Analysts at Danske Bank note that next week will be fairly slow in terms of US data and we should get a better sense of how resilient the US economy is to the global slowdown the following week, with ISM manufacturing and the May jobs report coming out.
Analysts at Wells Fargo Securities noted that durable goods fell 2.1% in April, with a 25.1% plunge in civilian aircraft orders weighing on the headline.
Rabobank's analysts are expecting the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.75% on May 29.
National Bank of Belgium (NBB) reported on Friday its latest business survey revealed Belgium business confidence edged down to -3.6 in May from -3.2 in the previous month. That marked the worst reading since March 2016.
Economists had forecast the reading o come in at -2.
According to the survey, confidence weakened among traders (to -8.1 in May from -3.6 in April), manufacturers (to -6.6 from -6.1) and service providers (to 3.4 from 5.7).
On the contrary, confidence improved for constructors (to 4.0 from 0.5).
U.S. stock-index futures rose on Friday, following previous session’s steep sell-off, supported by the U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that the ongoing trade war could be over quickly.
Today's Change, points
Today's Change, %
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALTRIA GROUP INC.
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ
Cisco Systems Inc
Citigroup Inc., NYSE
Deere & Company, NYSE
Exxon Mobil Corp
Ford Motor Co.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE
General Electric Co
General Motors Company, NYSE
Home Depot Inc
International Business Machines Co...
International Paper Company
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase and Co
Merck & Co Inc
Procter & Gamble Co
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ
The Coca-Cola Co
Twitter, Inc., NYSE
United Technologies Corp
UnitedHealth Group Inc
Verizon Communications Inc
Wal-Mart Stores Inc
Walt Disney Co
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ
The U.S. Commerce
Department reported on Friday that the durable goods orders fell 2.1 percent
m-o-m in April, following a revised 1.7 percent m-o-m gain in March (originally
a 2.7 percent m-o-m advance).
Economists had forecast a 2.0 percent m-o-m decrease.
According to the report, transportation equipment (-5.9 percent m-o-m) drove the decrease. Meanwhile, orders for durable goods excluding transportation were unchanged m-o-m, following a revised 0.5 percent m-o-m drop in April (originally an increase of 0.4 percent m-o-m) and missing market expectations of a 0.2 percent m-o-m gain.
Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.9 percent m-o-m in April, after increasing 0.3 percent m-o-m in March (revised down from +1.0 percent m-o-m previously reported). Economists had forecast core capital goods orders declining 0.3 percent m-o-m in April.
Shipments of these core capital goods were unchanged in April after a revised 0.6 percent m-o-m fall in the prior month (originally a 0.1 percent m-o-m decrease).
Nick Kounis, head of financial markets research at ABN AMRO, notes that two bellwether business surveys - the PMIs and Germany’s Ifo - provided mixed news about the Eurozone's economy in May.
HP Inc. (HPQ) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $0.53 per share (versus $0.48 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus of $0.51.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $14.036 bln (+0.2% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $13.966 bln.
The company issued in-line guidance for Q3, projecting EPS of $0.53-0.56 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.55.
It also narrowed guidance for FY19, projecting EPS of $2.14-2.21 (from $2.12-2.22) versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.15.
HPQ rose to $19.55 (+1.88%) in pre-market trading.
The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported the Chinese vice-minister for industry and information technology Wang Zhijun said at a press conference in Beijing that the recent moves by Washington to stymie Chinese firms would help them to reduce their reliance on foreign technologies and that their efforts to do so would receive the government’s full backing.
“Recently, the US has taken a series of measures to crack down on Chinese companies for political purposes,” he said.“[But] it is, in fact, a good thing for Chinese firms. China’s manufacturing upgrade requires a breakthrough in key and core technologies, [and] we need to speed up the process.”
Wang also added the government would play a greater role in formulating strategy and increase its support for technology companies through bigger subsidies for research and development, and better protection of their intellectual property.
“We will strengthen the strategic guidance at the national level, devote more resources to achieving a breakthrough in core technologies, and create a market environment for fair competition,” he said. “At the same time, the government will increase its financial support for basic research … and encourage companies to devote more resources to it.”
TD Securities' analysts are forecasting the U.S. durable goods orders to drop 3.0% m/m in April, giving back part of its strong 2.6% gain in March.
Michael Gordon, an analyst at Westpac, notes that New Zealand's economy recorded a modest $433m trade surplus in April.
Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported on Friday its latest survey of
90 firms, of which 42 were retailers, showed retail sales volume balance fell
sharply to -27 in May from +13 in April, marking the fastest contraction since
Economist had forecast the reading to come in at +8.
The report notes, however, that the sales volumes are expected to improve in June to +7.
According to the report, orders placed on suppliers slumped in the year to May (to -41), and are expected to fall again in June albeit at a slower pace (to -8). Conditions for retailers have further deteriorated with investment intentions for the year ahead (-65) reaching their lowest in survey history (since 1983). Employment also declined on a year ago, for the tenth quarter running and at the fastest pace since August 2009. Overall, respondents expect business conditions to remain broadly stable over the next three months, matching expectations in February.
Non-store retailing was the only positive contributor to this month’s headline figure (+49), while recreational goods were flat (0). However, sales dropped in other sub-sectors, including footwear & leather (-100), furniture & carpets (-50) and hardware & DIY (-25).
Growth in internet sales volumes grew at a faster pace (+38) compared to last month (+28), albeit with growth still below its long-run average (+47). Internet sales are expected to increase at a similar pace in June (+36)
Anna Leach, CBI Deputy Chief Economist, notes that May’s survey paints a dismal picture of business conditions for retailers, who face a grim combination of tough trading conditions, Brexit uncertainty and a burdensome outdated business rates regime, which have collectively pushed investment intentions to a record low.
Japan's government downgraded its assessment of the economy on Friday but maintained the view it was recovering, suggesting that escalating U.S.-China trade tensions have yet to hit growth enough to put off this year's scheduled sales tax hike.
"Japan's economy is recovering at a moderate pace, while weakness in exports and industrial production continues," the government said in a monthly economic report for May.
That was a slightly bleaker view than last month, when it said the economy was recovering moderately despite "some" weakness in exports and output.
The government also cut its view on output and capital expenditure, nodding to the growing pain from U.S.-Sino trade tensions and slowing Chinese demand. But it stuck to the view that domestic demand remains strong enough to moderate some of the pain from overseas headwinds, helping keep Japan's recovery intact.
I've done my best to implement Brexit vote
I've done everything I can to convince MPs to back my deal
It is a matter of deep regret that I have not delivered Brexit
Will continue to serve as prime minister until new leader is elected
Leadership contest will begin in the following week after her resignation
Consensus on Brexit can only be reached if all sides are willing to compromise
In view of Axel Rudolph, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair remains under pressure and has reached the 2016-2019 uptrend at 1.2607.
“We look for this to hold the downside but acknowledge that it is the last defence for the 1.2444 December 2018 low. Minor resistance comes in at the 1.2772 February low and the 1.2865 April low. Immediate downside pressure will be maintained while no rise above the 200 day moving average at 1.2955 is seen. Next up is the May 10 high at 1.3048. Only if this level were to be exceeded, would we look for the 1.3185/97 April and current May highs to be retested.”
According to the report from Office for National Statistics, the quantity bought was flat (0.0%) in April 2019 when compared with the previous month, with growths in clothing, non-store retailing and fuel offset by falls in all other main sectors. Economists had expected a 0.3% decrease.
In the three months to April 2019, the quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales increased by 1.8% when compared with the previous three months, with strong growth in non-store retailing, which reached a record high of 9.4%. Online retailers selling clothing items were the driver to this growth, with the warm weather helping to boost sales.
When compared with the previous year, the quantity bought in April 2019 increased by 5.2%, with growth across all sectors except household goods, which fell by 4.5%.
In April 2019, online retailing accounted for 18.7% of total retailing compared with 17.7% in April 2018, with an overall growth of 10.1% when compared with the same month a year earlier.
Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said its right-wing League party wanted to change European Union fiscal rules to push through tax cuts because it would not want a deficit overshoot that lifted debt costs.
“The League’s goal is to change EU rules to be able to lower taxes”, Salvini told.
Salvini said he was ready to discuss the issue with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel after an EU vote on Sunday from which he expects the League to come out as the strongest party in Italy and Europe.
Last week Salvini said Italy could break EU fiscal rules and increase its public debt in order to spur job creation.
Data from the statistical office INE showed that Spain's producer price inflation slowed slightly in April.
Producer price inflation came in at 2.3 percent in April, down from 2.4 percent in March.
Excluding energy, producer price inflation rose slightly to 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent a month ago.
Month-on-month, producer prices increased 0.6 percent, in contrast to a 0.3 percent drop in March.
Among components, producer prices of capital and intermediate goods gained 0.9 percent, each, from last year. Energy prices surged 7 percent, while consumer goods prices dropped 0.5 percent.
According to analysts at Danske Bank, yesterday, PMI releases in advanced economies cast doubt about the outlook for the global economy.
“Most severe was the slump in the US, where both the manufacturing and service PMIs dropped sharply. While it is not a big surprise that US manufacturing is not immune to the weakening global economic environment (global value chains), the service sector slowdown is more surprising given the strength of the US labour market. The Japanese and German PMIs also surprised on the downside while the French PMI was a rare light of hope. The weakening of the PMIs comes amid the significant uncertainty about trade relations between China and US triggered by the renewed trade dispute between the two countries over the past month. The weak signs from the leading global economies led to a sizeable sell-off in global equity markets.”
President Donald Trump said U.S. complaints against Huawei Technologies Co Ltd might be resolved within the framework of a U.S.-China trade deal, while at the same time calling the Chinese telecommunications giant “very dangerous.”
Washington last week effectively banned U.S. firms from doing business with Huawei, the world’s largest telecoms network gear maker, citing national security concerns.
“You look at what they’ve done from a security standpoint, from a military standpoint, it’s very dangerous,” Trump said in remarks at the White House. “If we made a deal, I could imagine Huawei being possibly included in some form or some part of it.”
Trump predicted a swift end to the trade war with China, although no high-level talks have been scheduled between the two countries since the last round of negotiations ended in Washington two weeks ago.
Trump also said he will meet with China's President Xi Jinping when they attend the G20 meeting next month in Japan.
Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, points out that Westpac is now forecasting three cuts in 2019 in June; August and November to push the cash rate from 1.5% to 0.75% and to hold at that level through 2020.
“Our forecasts for employment; wages growth; economic growth ; inflation and conditions in the housing market are consistent with the need for policy to ease through the full course of 2019, not to go on hold as early as August. We see the unemployment rate drifting up to 5.4% by year’s end; economic growth at 2.2% for 2019; underlying inflation at 1.4%; and the housing market still weak although approaching stability. That means that the June and August cuts should be supported by a further cut in November. Looking into 2020 we expect that the case for policy easing could still be apparent but as rates go lower and time passes the option to use QE will become more attractive.”
Danske Bank analysts point out that after 'Super Thursday' yesterday brought another set of subdued PMI data on both sides of the Atlantic, markets are in for a more quiet day on the data front today.
“EU parliament elections continue to take place today in Ireland and Czech Republic. Results will however only be announced when voting in all EU countries has closed on Sunday evening. In the UK, Theresa May is today expected to announce timetable for her resignation as U.K. Conservative Party leader and prime minister after the backlash over her Brexit plans. In the US, preliminary core capex for April is due out. Core capex has softened recently but remains at a high level and we expect investments to continue to increase over this year.”
Real estate markets in Asia-Pacific grew at a record-breaking pace in the first quarter of this year — thanks in part to China and despite a global decline, according to real estate consultancy JLL.
The region recorded a new first-quarter high of $45 billion in real estate transaction volumes, according the company’s Global Capital Flows report for the first quarter of 2019.
That’s a 14% increase compared to a year ago — outperforming the Americas, as well as Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), the JLL report showed.
“Driving this performance was China, where quarterly investment surged to an all-time high of US$17 billion due to an increase in cross-border capital inflows and large-scale transaction activity,” said the report.
Japan, Australia and Hong Kong saw a fall in investment volumes, the report found. But other strong-performing real estate markets in the region — such as South Korea and Singapore — managed to offset that decline and push the overall performance of the region up, it said.
Analysts at TD Securities point out that in the UK session, retail sales are released for April and will be a key economic release for the day.
“We look for a gain of 0.7% m/m (consensus: -0.3%) as consumer continue to look through any Brexit uncertainty. Visa spending data released earlier in the month suggest further upside risks to our forecast.”
China's commerce ministry said on Friday that more efforts should be made to achieve the goal of stabilising trade while improving its quality, adding that the trade environment is growing more uncertain and challenging.
The domestic economy still faces downward pressure and some structural issues remain to be resolved, the ministry said in a statement summarizing the foreign trade trends for this year.
The statement made no mention of the United States or China's trade disputes with it.
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1181
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date June, 7 is 119607 contracts (according to data from May, 23) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (9031);
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2661
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 7 is 40208 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3450 (3277);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 7 is 40024 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (4068);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 1.00 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 23
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
|Raw materials||Closed||Change, %|
|Index||Change, points||Closed||Change, %|
|00:00||Eurozone||European Parliamentary Elections|
|04:30||Japan||All Industry Activity Index, m/m||March||-0.2%||-0.2%|
|08:30||United Kingdom||Retail Sales (YoY)||April||6.7%||4.6%|
|08:30||United Kingdom||Retail Sales (MoM)||April||1.1%||-0.3%|
|10:00||United Kingdom||CBI retail sales volume balance||May||13||8|
|12:30||U.S.||Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation||April||0.4%||0.2%|
|12:30||U.S.||Durable Goods Orders||April||2.7%||-2%|
|12:30||U.S.||Durable goods orders ex defense||April||2.3%||-2%|
|17:00||U.S.||Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count||May||802|
Το υλικό που δημοσιεύτηκε εδώ είναι αποκλειστικά για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και η εξάρτηση από αυτό μπορεί να οδηγήσει σε απώλειες. Οι προηγούμενες επιδόσεις δεν αποτελούν αξιόπιστη ένδειξη των μελλοντικών αποτελεσμάτων. Παρακαλούμε διαβάστε την πλήρη αποποίηση ευθυνών μας.
Προειδοποίηση κινδύνου: To trading σε Forex και CFDs με περιθώριο φέρει υψηλό επίπεδο κινδύνου και μπορεί να μην είναι κατάλληλο για όλους τους επενδυτές. Τα CFDs είναι σύνθετα μέσα και έχουν υψηλό κίνδυνο να χαθούν χρήματα γρήγορα λόγω μόχλευσης. Το 67% των λογαριασμών των μικροεπενδυτών χάνει χρήματα κατά τη διαπραγμάτευση CFDs με αυτόν τον παροχέα. Θα πρέπει να σκεφτείτε αν καταλαβαίνετε πώς λειτουργούν τα CFDs και αν μπορείτε να αντέξετε οικονομικά να αναλάβετε τον υψηλό κίνδυνο να χάσετε τα χρήματά σας. Πριν αρχίσετε το trading, θα πρέπει να λαμβάνετε υπόψιν σας το επίπεδο της εμπειρίας και την οικονομική σας κατάσταση. Η TeleTrade προσπαθεί να σας παρέχει με όλες τις απαραίτητες πληροφορίες και προστατευτικά μέτρα, αλλά σε περίπτωση που οι κίνδυνοι είναι ακόμη ασαφή για εσάς, παρακαλείστε να ψάξετε ανεξάρτητη συμβουλή.
© 2011-2018 TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd
Η TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd έχει καταχωρηθεί ως Κυπριακή Επενδυτική Εταιρεία (CIF) με αριθμό καταχώρησης HE272810 και έχει αδειοδοτηθεί από τις Ασφάλειες Κύπρου και την Επιτροπή Κεφαλαιαγοράς Κύπρου (CySEC) με αριθμό άδειας 158/11.
Η εταιρεία ασκεί τις δραστηριότητές της σύμφωνα με την Οδηγία για τις Αγορές Χρηματοπιστωτικών Μέσων (MiFID).
Οι πληροφορίες σε αυτή την ιστοσελίδα διατίθενται αποκλειστικά για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς. Όλες οι υπηρεσίες και πληροφορίες που παρέχονται έχουν ληφθεί από πηγές που θεωρούνται αξιόπιστες. Η TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd ("TeleTrade") ή/και άλλοι πάροχοι πληροφοριών παρέχουν υπηρεσίες και πληροφορίες χωρίς κανενός είδους εγγύηση. Με τη χρήση αυτών των πληροφοριών και υπηρεσιών, συμφωνείτε ότι η TeleTrade δεν φέρει σε καμία περίπτωση την οποιαδήποτε ευθύνη για οποιοδήποτε φυσικό ή νομικό πρόσωπο για οποιαδήποτε απώλεια ή ζημία που προκλήθηκε πλήρως ή μερικώς από εξάρτηση σε αυτές τις πληροφορίες και υπηρεσίες.
Η TeleTrade συνεργάζεται αποκλειστικά με πιστοποιημένους χρηματοπιστωτικούς οργανισμούς για τη φύλαξη κεφαλαίων των πελατών. Δείτε ολόκληρο τον κατάλογο τραπεζών και παρόχων υπηρεσιών πληρωμών που είναι έμπιστοι για τη διαχείριση κεφαλαίων πελατών.of banks and payment service providers entrusted with handling of client funds.
Παρακαλούμε να διαβάσετε τους πλήρης Όρους Χρήσης.
Για την μέγιστη εμπειρία πλοήγησης των επισκεπτών μας, η TeleTrade χρησιμοποιεί cookies στις διαδικτυακές υπηρεσίες της. Με τη συνέχιση της πλοήγησής σας σε αυτή την ιστοσελίδα, συμφωνείτε με την χρήση των cookies. Εάν διαφωνείτε, μπορείτε ανά πάσα στιγμή να αλλάξετε τις ρυθμίσεις πλοήγησής σας. Διαβάστε περισσότερα.
Για την μέγιστη εμπειρία πλοήγησης των επισκεπτών μας, η TeleTrade χρησιμοποιεί cookies στις διαδικτυακές υπηρεσίες της. Με τη συνέχιση της πλοήγησής σας σε αυτή την ιστοσελίδα, συμφωνείτε με την χρήση των cookies. Εάν διαφωνείτε, μπορείτε ανά πάσα στιγμή να αλλάξετε τις ρυθμίσεις πλοήγησής σας. Διαβάστε περισσότερα. Η TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd παρέχει σήμερα τις υπηρεσίες της σε διασυνοριακή βάση, στα κράτη του ΕΟΧ (εκτός του Βελγίου) στο πλαίσιο του συστήματος διαβατηρίου MiFID και σε επιλεγμένες τρίτες χώρες. Η TeleTrade δεν παρέχει τις υπηρεσίες της σε κατοίκους ή υπηκόους των ΗΠΑ.