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Market news

27 November 2019
  • 23:50

    Japan: Retail sales, y/y, October -7.1% (forecast -4.4%)

  • 23:30

    Schedule for today, Thursday, November 28, 2019

    Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
    00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence November -42.4 -30.8
    00:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter III -0.5% -0.1%
    06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter III 0.2% 0.8%
    06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter III 0.3% 0.2%
    09:00 Eurozone Private Loans, Y/Y October 3.4% 3.5%
    09:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y October 5.5% 5.5%
    10:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator November -0.19 -0.14
    10:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence November -9.5 -9.1
    10:00 Eurozone Economic sentiment index November 100.8 101
    10:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence November -7.6 -7.2
    13:00 Germany CPI, m/m November 0.1% -0.6%
    13:00 Germany CPI, y/y November 1.1% 1.3%
    13:30 Canada Current Account, bln Quarter III -6.38 -9.0
    16:35 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks    
    19:35 Germany German Buba President Weidmann Speaks    
    21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m October 7.2% -2.5%
    23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y November 0.5% 0.6%
    23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y November 0.4% 0.4%
    23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate October 2.4% 2.4%
    23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) October 1.7% -2.1%
    23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) October 1.3%  
  • 21:16

    Major US stock indices closed in positive territory

    The main US stock indices rose moderately, as optimism regarding the trade deal between the US and China remained, while recent macroeconomic data indicated the stability of the US economy.

    Trump said Tuesday that the United States and China are close to closing the first phase of the deal. Trump's positive comments came after a phone conversation between US and Chinese officials. The negotiators agreed to continue work on the remaining controversial issues.

    The Commerce Department said US economic growth accelerated somewhat in the third quarter, rather than slowing, as originally reported, amid higher stockpiling rates and a less dramatic decline in business investment. According to a second estimate, US gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.1% year on year. This is compared with the rate of 1.9%, estimated last month. Between April and June, economic growth was 2.0%. Economists forecast that GDP growth in the third quarter will remain unchanged at 1.9%.

    Another report from the Ministry of Commerce showed that durable goods orders rose 0.6% in October after falling 1.4% in the previous month. Economists had forecast a decline of 0.8%. At the same time, orders for major capital goods produced in the USA increased by 1.2%, and this is the largest increase since January.

    In a separate report, the Department of Commerce also reported that US households increased spending in October by 0.3%. But spending on durable goods, especially on new cars, declined by seasonally adjusted 0.7%. Economists had expected consumer spending and income to grow at 0.3%. At the same time, household incomes generally did not change in October, but wages rose seasonally by 0.4% per annum, compared with 0.1% in September.

    Most DOW components completed trading in positive territory (20 out of 30). The biggest gainers were Apple Inc. (AAPL; + 1.33%). Outsiders were shares of Dow Inc. (DOW; -1.91%).

    Almost all S&P sectors recorded an increase. The largest growth was shown by the services sector (+ 0.7%). Only the industrial goods sector decreased (-0.1%).

    At the time of closing:

    Index

    Dow 28,164.00 +42.32 +0.15%

    S&P 500 3,153.63 +13.11 +0.42%

    Nasdaq 100 8,705.17 +57.24 +0.66%

  • 20:50

    Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, November 28, 2019

    Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
    00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence November -42.4 -30.8
    00:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter III -0.5% -0.1%
    06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter III 0.2% 0.8%
    06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter III 0.3% 0.2%
    09:00 Eurozone Private Loans, Y/Y October 3.4% 3.5%
    09:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y October 5.5% 5.5%
    10:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator November -0.19 -0.14
    10:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence November -9.5 -9.1
    10:00 Eurozone Economic sentiment index November 100.8 101
    10:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence November -7.6 -7.2
    13:00 Germany CPI, m/m November 0.1% -0.6%
    13:00 Germany CPI, y/y November 1.1% 1.3%
    13:30 Canada Current Account, bln Quarter III -6.38 -9.0
    16:35 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks    
    19:35 Germany German Buba President Weidmann Speaks    
    21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m October 7.2% -2.5%
    23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y November 0.5% 0.6%
    23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y November 0.4% 0.4%
    23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate October 2.4% 2.4%
    23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) October 1.7% -2.1%
    23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) October 1.3%  
  • 20:03

    DJIA +0.15% 28,162.84 +41.16 Nasdaq +0.57% 8,697.51 +49.58 S&P +0.40% 3,153.00 +12.48

  • 18:05

    U.S.: Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, November 668

  • 17:00

    European stocks closed: FTSE 100 7,429.78 +26.64 +0.36% DAX 13,287.07 +50.65 +0.38% CAC 40 5,926.84 -2.78 -0.05%

  • 16:07

    U.S. Ocrober durable goods report offers further hints that manufacturing activity is beginning to stabilize – Wells Fargo

    Analysts at Wells Fargo note that the U.S. durable goods orders report came in above expectations in October, showing an increase of 0.6%. At the same time, core capital goods orders jumped and suggest equipment spending could rebound in the fourth quarter. 

    • “The October durable goods report offers further hints that manufacturing activity is beginning to stabilize. Orders were up 0.6% last month. Some of the gain was driven by a 10.7% jump in aircraft. More telling, however, was the 1.2% increase in core capital goods orders.
    • The trend in orders growth remains generally uninspiring. Core orders remain down over the past three months, while the regional PMIs for November show orders remaining weak. With global growth still struggling and uncertainty about trade policy still lingering, we expect capex to remain lackluster.”

  • 15:35

    EIA’s report reveals an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories increased by 1.572 million barrels in the week ended November 22. Economists had forecast a drop of 0.878 million barrels.

    At the same time, gasoline stocks surged by 5.132 million barrels, while analysts had expected a gain of 0.800 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 0.725 million barrels, while analysts had forecast an increase of 0.800 million barrels.

    Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. climbed by 100,000 barrels a day to 12.900 million barrels a day, which is a record high.

    U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, up by 217,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

  • 15:30

    U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, November 1.572 (forecast -0.418)

  • 15:25

    U.S. pending home sales down 1.7 percent in October

    The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Wednesday its seasonally adjusted pending home sales index (PHSI) fell 1.7 percent m-o-m to 106.7 in October, after an unrevised 1.5 percent m-o-m gain in September.

    Economists had expected pending home sales to increase 0.8 percent m-o-m in October.

    On y-o-y basis, the index climbed 4.4 percent after a 3.9 percent increase in September. That was the largest annual advance in pending home sales since December 2015.

    According to the report, almost all regional indices recorded m-o-m declines in October. The only exception was the PHSI in the Northeast, which rose 1.9 percent m-o-m to 95.7 in October, 3.0 percent higher than a year ago. In the Midwest, the index slid 2.7% to 101.4 last month, 1.8% higher than in October 2018. Meanwhile, the index in the West declined 3.4 percent m-o-m in October 2019 to 91.9, which was an increase of 7.5 percent from a year ago, the index in the Midwest fell 2.7 percent m-o-m to 101.4 last month, 1.8 percent higher than in October 2018, and the index in the South dropped 1.7 percent m-o-m to 125.3 in October, a 5.1 percent advance from last October.

  • 15:13

    U.S. consumer spending up 0.3 percent in October

    U.S. consumer spending up 0.3 percent in October

    The Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in October, following an unrevised 0.2 percent m-o-m gain in September. Economists had forecast the reading to show a 0.3 percent m-o-m growth.

    Meanwhile, consumer income was flat m-o-m in October, following an unrevised 0.3 percent m-o-m gain in the previous month. Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent m-o-m advance.

    The October increase in personal income primarily reflected an advance in wages and salaries, which, however, was partially offset by decreases in personal interest income and in farm proprietors’ income.

    The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, edged up 0.1 percent m-o-m in October after a flat m-o-m performance in the prior month. Economists had projected the index would rise 0.1 percent m-o-m.

    In the 12 months through October, the core PCE increased 1.6 percent, following an unrevised 1.7 percent growth in the 12 months through September. Economists had forecast a gain of 1.7 percent y-o-y.

  • 15:02

    U.S.: Pending Home Sales (MoM) , October -1.7%

  • 15:02

    Chicago business activity increases slightly in November

    MNI Indicators’ report revealed on Wednesday that business activity in Chicago rose slightly this month.

    The MNI Chicago Business Barometer, also known as Chicago purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 46.3 in November, up from an unrevised 43.2 in October. Economists had forecast the index to increase to 47.0.

    A reading above 50 indicates improving conditions, while a reading below this level shows worsening of the situation.

    According to the report, only two of the five components of the headline indicator saw a monthly advance: The New Orders rose by 12.5 points to 49.4, just a touch below the 50-mark, and the Order Backlogs recovered to 45.0 in November after October’s sharp drop to 33.1. At the same time, the Supplier Deliveries recorded the largest monthly fall to 50.2, hitting the lowest level since June 2016. The Production edged down to 42.3 in November after October’s uptick and the Inventories decreased to 43.0, indicating that firms continue to run down their stocks. On the price front, prices at the factory gate cooled further to 53.5 in November, registering the lowest level since April.

  • 15:00

    U.S.: Personal Income, m/m, October 0.0% (forecast 0.3%)

  • 15:00

    U.S.: Personal spending , October 0.3% (forecast 0.3%)

  • 15:00

    U.S.: PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y, October 1.6% (forecast 1.7%)

  • 15:00

    U.S.: PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m, October 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)

  • 14:45

    U.S.: Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index , November 46.3 (forecast 47)

  • 14:35

    U.S. Stocks open: Dow -0.12%, Nasdaq +0.25%, S&P +0.13%

  • 14:29

    Before the bell: S&P futures +0.10%, NASDAQ futures +0.18%

    U.S. stock-index futures rose slightly on Wednesday as optimism around U.S.-China trade talks continued, while investors assessed a slew of macro statistics and a fresh raft of earnings reports.

    Global Stocks:

    Index/commodity

    Last

    Today's Change, points

    Today's Change, %

    Nikkei

    23,437.77

    +64.45

    +0.28%

    Hang Seng

    26,954.00

    +40.08

    +0.15%

    Shanghai

    2,903.19

    -3.87

    -0.13%

    S&P/ASX

    6,850.60

    +63.10

    +0.93%

    FTSE

    7,444.78

    +41.64

    +0.56%

    CAC

    5,934.08

    +4.46

    +0.08%

    DAX

    13,282.29

    +45.87

    +0.35%

    Crude oil

    $58.48


    +0.12%

    Gold

    $1,454.00


    -0.43%

  • 14:26

    Weakness in China's industrial profits reflecting ongoing deflationary forces – TDS

    Analysts at TD Securities note China’s 9.9% YoY decline in industrial profits in October is the third straight YoY decline revealing that profits are worsening.

    “The outcome was the biggest drop since 2011 (when the series began). Weakness in profits reflects ongoing deflationary forces in the economy as reflected in PPI and core CPI. Profits remain under pressure as manufacturing remains in contraction (PMIs) and tariffs are maintained. Unfortunately, there is little hope of a turnaround soon, keeping policy makers on track with the drip feed of targetted monetary easing while pushing for a trade deal.”

  • 14:01

    Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

    (company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


    3M Co

    MMM

    169.33

    0.10(0.06%)

    939

    ALTRIA GROUP INC.

    MO

    49.36

    0.14(0.28%)

    7203

    Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

    AMZN

    1,802.26

    5.32(0.30%)

    28085

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL

    265.15

    0.86(0.33%)

    99441

    AT&T Inc

    T

    37.38

    -0.02(-0.05%)

    30541

    Boeing Co

    BA

    369.5

    -4.01(-1.07%)

    104695

    Caterpillar Inc

    CAT

    144.75

    -1.34(-0.92%)

    10796

    Chevron Corp

    CVX

    117.85

    0.06(0.05%)

    422

    Cisco Systems Inc

    CSCO

    45.46

    0.15(0.33%)

    13942

    Citigroup Inc., NYSE

    C

    75.95

    0.49(0.65%)

    11202

    Deere & Company, NYSE

    DE

    169.12

    -7.53(-4.26%)

    301823

    E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

    DD

    65.03

    0.26(0.40%)

    468

    Exxon Mobil Corp

    XOM

    68.84

    0.10(0.15%)

    5819

    Facebook, Inc.

    FB

    199.79

    0.82(0.41%)

    26349

    FedEx Corporation, NYSE

    FDX

    162.1

    0.60(0.37%)

    1813

    Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

    FCX

    11.81

    0.10(0.85%)

    51625

    General Electric Co

    GE

    11.36

    0.01(0.09%)

    109429

    General Motors Company, NYSE

    GM

    36.1

    0.19(0.53%)

    109564

    Goldman Sachs

    GS

    223.4

    0.95(0.43%)

    448

    Google Inc.

    GOOG

    1,313.73

    0.18(0.01%)

    2349

    Hewlett-Packard Co.

    HPQ

    20.38

    0.32(1.60%)

    48531

    Home Depot Inc

    HD

    222.2

    1.44(0.65%)

    33061

    Intel Corp

    INTC

    58.4

    -0.50(-0.85%)

    83738

    International Business Machines Co...

    IBM

    135.45

    0.36(0.27%)

    765

    Johnson & Johnson

    JNJ

    136.52

    -0.65(-0.47%)

    4507

    JPMorgan Chase and Co

    JPM

    132.15

    0.48(0.36%)

    3111

    McDonald's Corp

    MCD

    194.25

    0.24(0.12%)

    6614

    Merck & Co Inc

    MRK

    87.39

    0.05(0.06%)

    2194

    Microsoft Corp

    MSFT

    152.55

    0.52(0.34%)

    43901

    Nike

    NKE

    93.58

    0.25(0.27%)

    966

    Pfizer Inc

    PFE

    38.39

    0.10(0.26%)

    3529

    Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

    SBUX

    84.72

    0.16(0.19%)

    4484

    Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

    TSLA

    331.25

    2.33(0.71%)

    162369

    The Coca-Cola Co

    KO

    53.88

    -0.02(-0.04%)

    11924

    Twitter, Inc., NYSE

    TWTR

    31.08

    0.12(0.39%)

    34889

    United Technologies Corp

    UTX

    148.53

    0.41(0.28%)

    557

    UnitedHealth Group Inc

    UNH

    281

    -0.40(-0.14%)

    502

    Verizon Communications Inc

    VZ

    60

    0.11(0.18%)

    774

    Visa

    V

    183

    0.45(0.25%)

    3399

    Wal-Mart Stores Inc

    WMT

    119.33

    0.14(0.12%)

    3952

    Walt Disney Co

    DIS

    152.3

    0.66(0.44%)

    42369

    Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

    YNDX

    41.52

    0.05(0.12%)

    13072

  • 13:58

    U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly rebound in October

    The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that the durable goods orders rose 0.6 percent m-o-m in October, following a revised 1.4 percent m-o-m decline in September (originally a 1.1 percent m-o-m drop). That was the largest monthly advance since July.

    Economists had forecast a 0.8 percent m-o-m decrease.

    According to the report, orders for durable goods excluding transportation increased also 0.6 percent m-o-m, following a revised 0.4 percent m-o-m drop in September (originally a 0.3 percent m-o-m fall) and exceeding market expectations of 0.1 percent m-o-m gain.

    Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, surged1.2 percent m-o-m in October (the biggest gain since January) after a 0.5 percent decline m-o-m in September (revised from a previously reported -0.6 percent m-o-m). Economists had called for a 0.3 percent drop in core capital goods orders in October.

    Shipments of these core capital goods increased 0.8 percent m-o-m in October after a 0.8 percent m-o-m decrease in the prior month (revised from a previously reported -0.7 percent m-o-m).

  • 13:44

    U.S. weekly jobless claims fall more than forecast

    The data from the Labor Department revealed on Wednesday the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, but the underlying trend suggested some softening in labor market conditions.

    According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 213,000 for the week ended November 23.

    Economists had expected 221,000 new claims last week.

    Claims for the prior week were revised upwardly to 228,000 from the initial estimate of 227,000.

    Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims dropped by 1,500 to 219,750 last week.

  • 13:37

    U.S. economy grow faster than initially thought in Q3

    U.S. economy grow faster than initially thought in Q3

    A report from the Commerce Department showed on Wednesday that the U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the third quarter, due to upward revisions to private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which, however, were partially offset by a downward revision to state and local government spending.

    According to the second estimate, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, faster than 1.9 percent reported in the advance estimate.

    Economists had expected the growth rate to come in at 1.9 percent, following the second quarter's increase of 2.0 percent.

    The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, federal government spending, residential investment, private inventory investment, exports, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, rose

    Meanwhile, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected upturns in private inventory investment, exports, and residential fixed investment. However, these upturns were partly offset by decelerations in PCE, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, and a larger drop in nonresidential fixed investment.

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Durable Goods Orders , October 0.6% (forecast -0.8%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q, Quarter III 2.1% (forecast 2.2%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: PCE price index, q/q, Quarter III 1.5% (forecast 1.5%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: GDP, q/q, Quarter III 2.1% (forecast 1.9%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Durable goods orders ex defense, October 0.1% (forecast -0.3%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Continuing Jobless Claims, 1640 (forecast 1690)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation , October 0.6% (forecast 0.1%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, 213 (forecast 221)

  • 13:28

    Company News: Deere (DE) posts earnings financials in line with analysts' estimate

    Deere (DE) reported Q4 FY 2019 earnings of $2.14 per share (versus $2.30 in Q4 FY 2018), in line with analysts’ consensus estimate.

    The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $8.703 bln (+4.30% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $8.414 bln.

    DE fell to $167.88 (-4.96%) in pre-market trading.

  • 13:12

    Company News: HP (HPQ) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ forecast

    HP (HPQ) reported Q4 FY 2019 earnings of $0.60 per share (versus $0.54 in Q4 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.58.

    The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $15.400 bln (+0.20% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $15.292 bln.

    The company also issued in-line guidance for Q1 FY 2020, projecting EPS of $0.53-$0.56 vs. analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.53. For the full FY 2020, the company forecast EPS of $2.24-$2.32 vs. analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.23.

    HPQ rose to $20.45 (+1.94%) in pre-market trading.

  • 12:54

    China and U.S. inject optimism on trade talks - Global Times reports, citing Chinese experts

    According to the Global Times, China and the U.S. on Tuesday injected fresh optimism into prospects for a phase one trade agreement, as top trade negotiators of both sides agreed to address remaining issues for the interim deal during a phone conversation.

    "Chinese Vice Premier Liu He held a phone conversation with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin on Tuesday morning to exchange views on how to address each other's core concerns, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said in a statement.

    "[The two sides] achieved consensus on properly addressing relevant issues and agreed to maintain contact over the remaining issues for the phase one trade agreement," according to the statement.

    This was the first phone call between the two sides in 10 days and the third since the latest round of face-to-face trade negotiations in Washington in mid-October...

    "The phone call shows that the two sides are still seriously pushing forward a possible phase one trade agreement, despite noise," Li Yong, deputy chair of the expert committee of the China Association of International Trade, told the Global Times on Tuesday, adding that it would be "unwise" for the two sides to reverse course for a trade deal because of recent complications...

    Still despite the positive signs, some Chinese experts stressed that China will stick to its core demands, including proportional removal of existing tariffs and a balanced text of the phase one trade agreement."

  • 12:25

    U.S. weekly mortgage applications increase

    U.S. weekly mortgage applications increase

    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. rose 1.5 percent in the week ended November 22, following a 2.2 percent drop in the previous week.

    According to the report, refinance applications surged 4.2 percent, while applications to purchase a home declined 1.2 percent

    Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate fell to 3.97 percent from 3.99 percent.

    “Mortgage rates stayed below 4% for the second straight week and borrowers responded positively,” noted Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Refinances have been strong this month, but we are starting to see the average pace slow compared to the peak experienced in August through October.”

  • 12:17

    U.S. economic releases in focus ahead of Thanksgiving holiday – Deutsche Bank

    Analysts at Deutsche Bank point out that ahead of tomorrow’s Thanksgiving holiday we have a raft of U.S. data releases, including the second reading of Q3 GDP, along with personal consumption and core PCE.

    • “There’s the preliminary October reading of durable goods orders and non-defence capital goods orders. And to round it off, there’s the MNI Chicago PMI reading for November, personal income and spending data for October, pending home sales for October, and the weekly initial jobless claims and MBA mortgage applications. Turning to central banks, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book.”

  • 12:03

    China’s industry profit data is scary - ING

    Iris Pang, the economist for Greater China at ING, notes that falling by 9.9%YoY in October after a 5.3% contraction in the previous month, China's headline industrial profit numbers look scary. 

    • "It is the worst year-on-year growth since the data release began in 2011. It hints that manufacturers have been suffering a lot. But the details paint a different picture, some industries are earning big profits.
    • Trade-related manufacturers have suffered from the trade war. Not surprisingly, their profits have been heavily squeezed.
    • As we expect the trade war will continue even if there is a 'Phase 1' deal, these industries will continue to suffer from shrinking profits.
    • The degree of damage depends a lot on whether there will be a tariff rollback. Not only that, such a rollback could alleviate the burden shared by Chinese exporters and manufacturers. US consumers too would share less of the tariff burden and would recover some of the lost consumption demand. 
    • This divergence of profitability among different industries will remain until there are big improvements in the trade negotiations. And we will gauge this on the degree of tariff rollbacks.
    • If those are significant, for instance taking us back to the situation in May 2019, then exporters should be able to win more export orders and trade-related manufacturing activities will obviously increase. At the same time, the government can slow down the pace of infrastructure investment. 
    • That could significantly paint a completely different picture regarding industrial profitiablity. However, it is too early to make such a call. And I'm afraid we remain sceptical about the prospects of any significant progress on tariff rollbacks." 

  • 11:37

    U.S. inflation and durable goods data in focus - TDS

    Analysts at TD Securities note that the U.S. PPI and CPI data suggest core PCE inflation likely remained steady at 1.7% y/y in October, despite a notable m/m increase in healthcare prices.

    • “Headline PCE likely rose a tenth to 1.4% y/y. Separately, we expect personal spending to advance 0.2% m/m for a third consecutive month in October, with a firm increase in services spending leading the upside.
    • Lastly, We expect durable goods orders to retreat -1.0% m/m in October, stringing together its second consecutive decline. Further weakness in vehicle orders and a new drop in the ex-transportation segment are likely to keep orders subdued during the month. We also expect capex orders to register their third consecutive decline at -0.5% in October.”

  • 11:21

    ECB's President Lagarde: It's now our duty to ensure the value of the euro is stable

    • Support for the euro has reached an all-time high: 76% of our citizens are now in favour of the single currency; trust in our currency is there;
    • It’s now our duty to nurture and sustain this trust – by ensuring that banknotes are secure, payments systems are robust, and the value of the euro is stable

  • 11:06

    ECB's chief economist Lane: Policy transmission is working

    • Says Eurozone's credit growth continues to be decent
    • Have not reached reversal rate yet
    • ECB cares equally about too low or too high inflation

  • 10:58

    EUR/GBP: Stuck in a range – Commerzbank

    Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that EUR/GBP remains stuck below last week’s high at .8606 but above last week’s low at .8522 and below the latter a minor psychological mark can be seen at .8500 as well as the May low at .8465.

    “We note the TD support at .8485 and we look for the market to hold here. Above last week’s high at .8606 lies a minor downtrend channel resistance line at .8629 ahead of the four month downtrend line at .8780. Overhead resistance is reinforced by .8786 the mid-September low. Resistance above the October high at .9022 comes in at the .9149 September high. A rise above the next higher .9327 level would lead to the 2016 peak at .9403 to be in focus.”

  • 10:40

    US-China deal is ‘imminent’ due to Beijing’s upcoming policy meeting - economist

    China’s annual Economic Work Conference is likely to convene within the next two weeks, meaning a trade deal with the U.S. is “imminent,” according to ICBC Standard Bank Chief China Economist Jinny Yan.

    The world’s two largest economies are working toward a “phase one” trade deal. The next tariff deadline falls on December 15, after which point additional U.S. levies on Chinese exports will go into effect. 

    “The key priority for (Chinese President) Xi Jinping and policymakers across China is stability, so anything that overthrows stability is going to be essentially a concern. That includes Hong Kong, the U.S.-China situation, and that is why a phase one deal is absolutely crucial,” Yan told CNBC.

    The Economic Work Conference is a closed meeting of policymakers typically held over two or three days in the second or third week of December, and sets the national agenda for China’s economy and its finance and banking sectors for the following year.

    Yan suggested that owing to this coinciding with the key tariff deadline, she believes “the trade deal is imminent.”

  • 10:20

    Japan budget outline seeks to mix monetary and pro-growth fiscal policies

    Japan's government will seek to combine monetary easing with "growth-oriented" fiscal policy next year, it said in a budget outline presented at a meeting of its top economic council on Wednesday.

    The outline said the government should take flexible and all possible economic steps, including an additional budget for the current fiscal year, which ends March 31. That will be combined with the annual budget for fiscal year 2020/21, beginning April 1, to implement spending seamlessly over a 15-month period.

    It said Japan should achieve a primary budget surplus by fiscal year 2025/26.

  • 10:00

    Australia central bank seen cutting rates twice, introducing QE in 2020 - Westpac

    Australia’s central bank is likely to cut interest rates twice next year, taking the cash rate to 0.25% by June 2020, and then introduce quantitative easing (QE), Westpac Banking Corp said in a change to its house forecasts.

    Westpac’s previous forecast was for the policy rate to fall to 0.5%. The cash rate is currently at a record low of 0.75% after three cuts of 25 basis points since June this year.

    The revised outlook followed a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe on Tuesday, in which he said he did not expect to have to use QE in Australia, but that it could happen if the cash rate was cut to 0.25%.

    “The RBA has indicated it is prepared to push the cash rate to 0.25%,” Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said in a report.

    “Westpac has always argued that monetary easing will be necessary in 2020 but assessed that the RBA would see 0.5% as the effective lower bound.”

  • 09:39

    EU's von der Leyen says fiscal leeway should be granted to boost growth

    The president-designate of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said European Union states should profit from leeway allowed by EU fiscal rules to boost growth.

    “We must use the flexibility allowed under the stability and growth pact to give time and space for our economies to grow,” von der Leyen told EU lawmakers.

    “At the same time we must support member states with targeted investments and structural reforms,” von der Leyen added.

  • 09:20

    AUD/USD continues to be under pressure – Commerzbank

    Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that AUD/USD remains bearish while trading below the 2019 downtrend line at .6900 and this resistance is reinforced by the 200-day ma at .6926.

    “The market is vulnerable to further losses this week to initial support offered by the .6724 October 16 low ahead of the .6671 October low. We suspect that this will again hold for further ranging. Failure at .6671 on a closing basis targets the .6548 February 1999 high. We note TD support on the weekly chart at .6535 also. Above the 200 day ma targets .7076, the mid July high. The 2013-2019 downtrend lies at .7205.”

  • 09:01

    Switzerland: Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations), November -3.9 (forecast -30.5)

  • 08:44

    US-China trade talks amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

    Danske Bank analysts suggest that on top of a bunch of US economic data, any news on the US-China trade talks will take centre stage today.

    “The talks are dragging out but we believe a deal will be struck before 15 December, when Trump is scheduled to raise tariffs further on China. A move we believe he would like to avoid as it will hurt the US economy more than previous tariff increases. We are up for some interesting US numbers today. Core durable goods orders for October will give more insight into the state of investment growth. Capital investments have become the weak spot in the US economy given the weakness in the manufacturing sector globally and the ongoing trade war. Monthly real private consumption growth and PCE core inflation in October will also receive market attention. Based on retail sales, real private consumption growth was solid in October. Based on CPI, PCE core likely rose 0.15% m/m in October, which would yield an unchanged yearly rate of 1.7% y/y; still below the Fed's target of 2.0%. Also US initial jobless claims and Chicago PMI will be out. Both numbers have been weakening lately; markets look for a stabilisation. Finally, we get the second estimate of Q3 GDP.”

  • 08:35

    NZD: Constructive on NZD heading into year end; scope for a position squeeze - CIBC

    CIBC Research discusses NZD outlook and adopts a tactical bullish bias going into year-end.

    "The RBNZ may be on hold for now, but we still expect the Bank to ease again sometime in mid-2020, as growth forecasts appear too optimistic in light of regional business sentiment. In addition, anticipated changes in bank capital legislation that should come into effect in April 2020 will likely tighten credit conditions, thereby reducing the effects of past cuts. Despite a more dovish RBNZ in the medium-term, we are constructive on the NZD heading into the end of the year. Positioning in NZD is extremely short, and a less dovish Bank will likely lead to a position squeeze going forward. Based on excessive short positioning, we continue to see the NZD as an outperformer in the coming months," CIBC adds.

  • 08:16

    US: Q3 GDP in focus today – Rabobank

    Rabobank analysts point out that today we will see another version of Q3 US GDP, and durable goods orders and will be a key economic release for markets.

    “Headline is seen -0.9% following a -1.2% print for September, and core is expected only 0.1% after a -0.4% reading. Core-core capital goods shipped ex. defence and aircraft are also seen -0.2%. Not very strong, in other words. Additionally, there is US personal income and spending, both seen up 0.3%, although real-terms personal spending is seen flat in the month. Not very strong either. Finally, we get pending home sales, seen up 0.2% m/m, which is equal to brisk 6.0% y/y. The worse the data is, the greater the likelihood that at some point in the day someone in the US will also be singing ‘Europe’.”

  • 08:00

    France: households confidence has increased again in November

    According to the report from Insee, in November 2019, households’ confidence in the economic situation has increased again, after two months of stability. At 106, the synthetic index has gained two points and remains above its long-term average (100). Economists had expected a decrease to 103.

    In November, households' opinion balance on their future financial situation has gained two points and the one related to their past financial situation has gained one point. These two balances thus remain above their long-term average. Furthermore, the share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases has slightly increased compared to last month: the corresponding balance has increased by one point and remains well above its long term average.

    In November, households’ opinion on their expected saving capacity has remained stable while the current saving capacity balance has fallen by one point. Nevertheless, both balances remain well above their long-term average. The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save has fallen slightly: the corresponding balance has lost one point and thus remains below its long term average.

  • 07:45

    France: Consumer confidence , November 106 (forecast 103)

  • 07:30

    EUR/USD is offered near term – Commerzbank

    Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that EUR/USD is offered near term and attention is on the 1.0989 mid-November low and whilst it holds, last week’s high at 1.1097 may be revisited, a rise above which would have the 1.1180 October high in its sights.

    “Above 1.1180 will target the 1.1255 one year channel. However the support is looking increasingly exposed and failure here will trigger another leg lower to the 1.0943 78.6% retracement. It is possible that we will see one more final leg down to the base of the channel at 1.0844 and the 1.0814 Fibo retracement before a sustained recovery is seen (but this is not our favoured view).”

  • 07:15

    China's industrial profits post steepest fall in eight months

    Profits at China's industrial firms shrank at their fastest pace in eight months in October, tracking sustained drops in producer prices and exports and underscoring slowing momentum in the world's second-largest economy.

    Industrial profits fell 9.9% in October year-on-year to 427.56 billion yuan, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed, marking the biggest drop since January-February period and compared with a 5.3% decline in September.

    China's industrial sector has been under pressure in recent months as slowing demand at home and the fallout from the Sino-U.S. trade dispute undercut earnings.

    Profit declines for the manufacturing sector deepened in October, as margins contracted by 4.9% in the January-October period, compared with a 3.9% drop in the first nine months of the year. Meanwhile, mining sector profit growth also moderated.

    For January-October, industrial firms' profits fell 2.9% from a year earlier to 5.02 trillion yuan, compared with a 2.1% decline in January September.

  • 06:59

    RBNZ to intensify supervisory strategy over financial institutions

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said the bank will review its supervisory strategy and take a more intensive approach that would involve greater scrutiny of financial institutions.

    Releasing the November Financial Stability Report, Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said good governance and robust risk management processes within financial institutions are important to maintain long term resilience.

    However, recent reviews of banks and life insurers underscored the importance to improve their behavior.

    "We are engaging with industry to ensure that they strengthen their own assurance processes and controls," he said. "We have also reviewed our own supervisory strategy and will be taking a more intensive approach, which will involve greater scrutiny of institutions' compliance."

    Governor Adrian Orr said financial system vulnerabilities remain elevated and more effort is required to ensure that the system remains resilient over the longer-term.

  • 06:32

    Options levels on wednesday, November 27, 2019

    EUR/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.1153 (5295)

    $1.1108 (3391)

    $1.1071 (2180)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.1008

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.0987 (3717)

    $1.0946 (2885)

    $1.0899 (2449)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 103215 contracts (according to data from November, 26) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5579);


    GBP/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.2958 (2991)

    $1.2913 (734)

    $1.2890 (2116)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.2844

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.2819 (1245)

    $1.2764 (2136)

    $1.2728 (985)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 6 is 32296 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (5639);

    - Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 33317 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (2280);

    - The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 26

     

    * - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

    ** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

  • 02:30

    Commodities. Daily history for Tuesday, November 26, 2019

    Raw materials Closed Change, %
    Brent 63.83 0.77
    WTI 58.22 0.59
    Silver 17.05 1.13
    Gold 1461.214 0.44
    Palladium 1808.01 0.79
  • 00:30

    Stocks. Daily history for Tuesday, November 26, 2019

    Index Change, points Closed Change, %
    NIKKEI 225 80.51 23373.32 0.35
    Hang Seng -79.12 26913.92 -0.29
    KOSPI -2.15 2121.35 -0.1
    ASX 200 56.1 6787.5 0.83
    FTSE 100 6.85 7403.14 0.09
    DAX -10.03 13236.42 -0.08
    Dow Jones 55.21 28121.68 0.2
    S&P 500 6.88 3140.52 0.22
    NASDAQ Composite 15.44 8647.93 0.18
  • 00:30

    Australia: Construction Work Done, Quarter III -0.4% (forecast -1%)

  • 00:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, November 26, 2019

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.67862 0.14
    EURJPY 120.204 0.23
    EURUSD 1.10213 0.1
    GBPJPY 140.283 -0.15
    GBPUSD 1.28623 -0.27
    NZDUSD 0.64263 0.16
    USDCAD 1.32697 -0.22
    USDCHF 0.9973 0.08
    USDJPY 109.06 0.14
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