• Home
  • Analytics
  • Market News

Market news

25 November 2019
  • 23:30

    Schedule for today, Tuesday, November 26, 2019

    Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
    07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey December 9.6 9.6
    08:15 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks    
    09:05 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks    
    09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals October 42.31  
    13:30 U.S. Goods Trade Balance, $ bln. October -70.39  
    14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m September 0.2% 0.2%
    14:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y September 2% 2.1%
    15:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index November 8  
    15:00 U.S. New Home Sales October 0.701 0.707
    15:00 U.S. Consumer confidence November 125.9 126.8
    18:00 U.S. FOMC Member Brainard Speaks    
    20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report    
    21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln October -1242 -1621
  • 22:01

    New Zealand: Retail Sales YoY, Quarter III 4.5%

  • 21:46

    New Zealand: Retail Sales, q/q, Quarter III 1.6% (forecast 1.2%)

  • 21:08

    Major US stock indices closed in positive territory

    Major US stock indices rose significantly amid growing expectations that China and the United States will reach the so-called first phase of the trade deal.

    The Chinese publication Global Times reported that according to sources close to the government, Beijing and Washington reached a common consensus to conclude the first phase of the agreement, including the issue of tariff cancellation. This reinforced investor optimism, prompted last Saturday by statements by US national security adviser Robert O’Brien that the deal could still be closed by the end of the year. However, he also warned that US President Donald Trump did not intend to ignore the ongoing protests in Hong Kong.

    Additional support to the market was provided by reports on M&A deals. So, TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (AMTD; + 7.85%) will be acquired by its competitor Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW; + 2.45%) for about $ 26 billion, Tiffany & Co. (TIF; + 6.27%) buys French LVMH for $ 135 per share or about $ 16.2 billion, Medicines Co. (MDCO; + 22.3%) buys Novartis (NVS; + 0.91%) for $ 85.00 per share. In addition, The Wall Street Journal reported that EBay Inc (EBAY; + 2.19%) is close to selling its stake in StubHub Viagogo for $ 4 billion.

    Most DOW components recorded an increase (21 out of 30). The biggest gainers were UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH; + 2.06%). Outsiders were shares of Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM; -0.92%).

    Almost all S&P sectors completed trading in positive territory. Only the utilities sector declined (-0.3%). The largest growth was shown by the health sector (+ 1.2%).

    At the time of closing:

    Dow 28,066.34 +190.72 +0.68%

    S&P 500 3,133.65 +23.36 +0.75%

    Nasdaq 100 8,632.49 +112.60 +1.32%

  • 20:50

    Schedule for tomorrow, Tuesday, November 26, 2019

    Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
    07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey December 9.6 9.6
    08:15 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks    
    09:05 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks    
    09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals October 42.31  
    13:30 U.S. Goods Trade Balance, $ bln. October -70.39  
    14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m September 0.2% 0.2%
    14:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y September 2% 2.1%
    15:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index November 8  
    15:00 U.S. New Home Sales October 0.701 0.707
    15:00 U.S. Consumer confidence November 125.9 126.8
    18:00 U.S. FOMC Member Brainard Speaks    
    20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report    
    21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln October -1242 -1621
  • 20:00

    DJIA +0.52% 28,020.44 +144.82 Nasdaq +1.19% 8,621.33 +101.45 S&P +0.61% 3,129.41 +19.12

  • 17:00

    European stocks closed: FTSE 100 7,396.29 +69.48 +0.95% DAX 13,246.45 +82.57 +0.63% CAC 40 5,924.86 +31.73 +0.54%

  • 15:58

    BoE: Policy seen to stay on hold, with risk of a near-term cut – ABN AMRO

    Bill Diviney, the senior economist at ABN AMRO, notes that the Bank of England (BoE) has kept interest rates at 0.75% since raising them twice by 25bp (in August 2018 and in November 2017).

    • “Until relatively recently, the BoE looked to be comfortably on hold for the time being. However, a dovish shift on the MPC – notably by ex-hawk Michael Saunders – suggests a higher risk of a cut in the near-term.
    • Accompanying Jonathan Haskell, Saunders dissented at the November meeting in favour of a 25bp cut, with both citing falling job vacancies as a sign that the labour market is turning. Vacancies have indeed fallen from historically elevated levels, as has employment, though the labour market overall remains strong – with wage growth and unit labour cost growth continuing to accelerate. Indeed, while inflation has fallen back of late, we expect higher ULC growth to drive a pickup in inflation next year.
    • In the election meanwhile, both main parties are promising minimum wage hikes in the coming years, which should keep upward pressure on unit labour costs. It is possible that companies choose to cut jobs rather than raise prices in response to higher labour costs, but inflation expectations are relatively high in the UK, perhaps giving more leeway for businesses to pass on higher costs than in other advanced economies.”

  • 15:42

    UK: Tactical voting becoming watch-words in election campaign – Rabobank

    Jane Foley, the senior FX strategist at Rabobank, suggests that tactical voting have become watch-words in the current UK election campaign as in some areas the Liberal Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru have agreed not to stand candidates in order to avoid splitting the ‘Remain’ vote.

    • “Nigel Farage has agreed not to stand Brexit Party candidates in Tory seats and voters are being offered an array of advice on how to use their vote wisely in the context of ‘Leave’ or ‘Remain’. As ever, the parties themselves are also carefully considering their tactics. Insofar as opinion polls are suggesting that the Tories now have a tidy lead over the Labour party, it would appear that PM Boris Johnson is having the most success.
    • The latest Survation poll suggests that the Conservative party is leading on 41% with the Labour Party at just 30%. Given the UK’s first part the post system, this does not translate directly into parliamentary seats. However, some polls are suggesting that PM Johnson may have sufficient support to form a majority government.
    • Political uncertainty has weighed heavily on investment confidence for the past couple of years. So, since a Tory majority this would allow Johnson to pass the EU withdrawal agreement in time for a January 31 Brexit, this factor has helped support to pound over the past few weeks. That said, with just 2 ½ weeks to go before Britons cast their votes, there are still plenty of risks for the Tory party.
    • If PM Johnson’s Conservatives win a majority on December 12 we see scope for GBP/USD to head towards 1.32 on the expectation that political uncertainty will be reduced. However, given risk that the trade talks with the EU will not be as easy as Johnson has indicated, we see plenty of scope for disappointment in 2020. Since this election is likely to see many moderate Tory MPs replaced by Brexiteers, the threat of a no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 may return. Additionally, headwinds to UK growth are also a threat for GBP next year.”

  • 15:24

    UK on a path of a highly unpredictable election – ABN AMRO

    Bill Diviney, the senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that the UK will go to the polls on 12 December in what could yet prove to be a highly unpredictable election.

    • “The Conservative Party currently enjoys a 10-15 point lead in opinion polls over the nearest rival, the Labour Party. However, the party enjoyed a similar lead over Labour in the period leading up to the 2017 election, and this proved disastrous for the Conservatives, with the party losing its majority in parliament.
    • The coming election’s predictability is further complicated by the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system – a ‘winner takes all’ system where parties can win seats with a minority of the vote share in a given constituency, so long as they have the most votes. This did not pose problems when elections in the UK were two-horse races between right/left, Conservatives/Labour. However, the Liberal Democrats (pro-remain) and Brexit Party (pro-no deal Brexit) have both attracted voters from the main parties, and so extrapolating national polling to the constituency level could yield misleading predictions of the actual outcome.
    • With that said, of the likely scenarios – a Conservative majority, or another hung parliament (similar to now) – all lead to relatively benign outcomes for financial markets. The Conservatives are campaigning on the basis of their deal (whereas the risk before was that they would campaign for a no-deal Brexit), and another hung parliament would likely lead to another referendum pitting PM Johnson’s deal (or some soft Brexit variant) against Remain. In any case, the risk of a no-deal, disorderly Brexit is substantially lower than it was previously.”










  • 14:57

    BoC expected to cut rates in January 2020 – TDS

    Analysts at TD Securities suggest that they have changed their call and are now expecting the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut rates just once in January 2020.

    • “While the Canadian economy has thus far been resilient to global headwinds, we do not believe recent actions taken by the US and China to enough to meaningfully resolve the elevated level of trade uncertainty which should prompt the BoC to provide more stimulus to offset the impact of global headwinds.
    • Underscoring the BoC's (relatively) constructive outlook is a healthy starting point; Q2 GDP was stronger than expected at 3.7%, and even with an undesirable composition (domestic demand contracted by 0.7%) the output gap is nearly closed. Core CPI remains target at 2.0% on average and labour market strength has shown no signs of abating.”

  • 14:36

    U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.34%, Nasdaq +0.73%, S&P +0.44%

  • 14:35

    Canada’s wholesale sales rise more than expected in September

    Statistics Canada reported on Monday the wholesale sales rose 1.0 percent m-o-m to CAD65.09 million in September, following an unrevised 1.2 percent m-o-m decrease in August.

    Economists had forecast an advance of 0.4 percent m-o-m for September.

    According to the report, higher sales were recorded in five of seven subsectors, accounting for 82 percent of total wholesale sales. The machinery, equipment and supplies (+4.4 percent m-o-m), the personal and household goods (+1.0 percent m-o-m), and the food, beverage and tobacco (+0.6 percent m-o-m) subsectors contributed the most to the gain in September, while the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector (-0.8 percent m-o-m) showed the largest drop. Excluding motor vehicle and parts, wholesale sales grew 1.4 percent m-o-m in September.

    In the third quarter, sales rose 0.8 percent, recording the fourteenth consecutive quarterly increase.

    At the same time, wholesale inventories decreased 0.7 percent m-o-m in September. Inventories were down in five of seven subsectors, representing 53 percent of total wholesale inventories. Inventories dropped 0.9 percent in the third quarter, following 12 consecutive quarterly advances.

  • 14:21

    Before the bell: S&P futures +0.25%, NASDAQ futures +0.35%

    Before the bell: S&P futures +0.25%, NASDAQ futures +0.35%

    U.S. stock-index futures rose on Monday amid increasing expectations that China and the U.S. could reach a so-called phase one trade deal.


    Global Stocks:

    Index/commodity

    Last

    Today's Change, points

    Today's Change, %

    Nikkei

    23,292.81

    +179.93

    +0.78%

    Hang Seng

    26,993.04

    +397.96

    +1.50%

    Shanghai

    2,906.17

    +20.88

    +0.72%

    S&P/ASX

    6,731.40

    +21.60

    +0.32%

    FTSE

    7,397.28

    +70.47

    +0.96%

    CAC

    5,893.13

    +11.92

    +0.20%

    DAX

    13,232.00

    +68.12

    +0.52%

    Crude oil

    $57.80


    +0.05%

    Gold

    $1,455.80


    -0.53%

  • 14:19

    Canada's Q3 GDP to be in limelight this week – NBF

    Analysts at National Bank Financial (NBF) point out that, for the Canadian markets, this week will feature Q3 GDP on Friday with monthly reports to date suggesting that the household consumption will contribute positively, albeit not strongly to growth in the quarter.

    • “Investment in residential and non-residential structures may also add to the headline growth number based on previously released data on construction spending. Trade, on the other hand, is likely to weigh on GDP judging from monthly reports which showed real imports expanding while real exports stagnated.
    • All told, GDP may have advanced 1.4% in annualized terms in Q3 following a stellar +3.7% print in Q2. That would leave the Canadian economy on pace for a 1.6% expansion in 2019. Looking at monthly data, the handoff to Q3 looks decent, with September GDP on pace to expand 0.1% on gains in real estate and construction.”

  • 13:51

    Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

    (company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


    3M Co

    MMM

    167.97

    0.37(0.22%)

    602

    ALTRIA GROUP INC.

    MO

    49.1

    0.10(0.20%)

    3909

    Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

    AMZN

    1,752.30

    6.58(0.38%)

    20769

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL

    262.37

    0.59(0.23%)

    125730

    AT&T Inc

    T

    37.9

    0.15(0.40%)

    700538

    Boeing Co

    BA

    372.67

    1.33(0.36%)

    153788

    Caterpillar Inc

    CAT

    144.5

    0.62(0.43%)

    578

    Chevron Corp

    CVX

    118.8

    0.17(0.14%)

    331

    Cisco Systems Inc

    CSCO

    44.99

    0.14(0.31%)

    3915

    Citigroup Inc., NYSE

    C

    75.2

    0.33(0.44%)

    9025

    Deere & Company, NYSE

    DE

    176

    0.62(0.35%)

    152

    Facebook, Inc.

    FB

    199.5

    0.68(0.34%)

    78705

    FedEx Corporation, NYSE

    FDX

    157.01

    0.46(0.29%)

    571

    Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

    FCX

    11.47

    0.12(1.06%)

    24812

    General Electric Co

    GE

    11.59

    0.04(0.35%)

    1807638

    General Motors Company, NYSE

    GM

    35.5

    0.17(0.48%)

    9886

    Google Inc.

    GOOG

    1,299.99

    4.65(0.36%)

    1565

    Hewlett-Packard Co.

    HPQ

    20.05

    0.11(0.55%)

    4269

    Home Depot Inc

    HD

    218.1

    0.07(0.03%)

    7669

    Intel Corp

    INTC

    57.8

    0.19(0.33%)

    3546

    International Business Machines Co...

    IBM

    134.99

    0.65(0.48%)

    1152

    Johnson & Johnson

    JNJ

    137.6

    0.48(0.35%)

    6596

    JPMorgan Chase and Co

    JPM

    131.36

    0.57(0.44%)

    3299

    McDonald's Corp

    MCD

    193.5

    0.36(0.19%)

    3204

    Merck & Co Inc

    MRK

    85.6

    0.15(0.18%)

    562

    Microsoft Corp

    MSFT

    150.08

    0.49(0.33%)

    46653

    Nike

    NKE

    93.7

    0.36(0.39%)

    147

    Pfizer Inc

    PFE

    38.45

    0.12(0.31%)

    16190

    Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

    SBUX

    83.47

    0.45(0.54%)

    4741

    Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

    TSLA

    345

    11.96(3.59%)

    545423

    The Coca-Cola Co

    KO

    53.13

    0.10(0.19%)

    2962

    Twitter, Inc., NYSE

    TWTR

    30.25

    0.22(0.73%)

    57063

    UnitedHealth Group Inc

    UNH

    277

    0.16(0.06%)

    195

    Visa

    V

    180.3

    0.83(0.46%)

    2780

    Wal-Mart Stores Inc

    WMT

    119.85

    0.49(0.41%)

    8430

    Walt Disney Co

    DIS

    149.15

    0.86(0.58%)

    62600

    Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

    YNDX

    40.28

    -0.18(-0.44%)

    25875

  • 13:47

    Upgrades before the market open

    Lyft (LYFT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital; target $62

  • 13:46

    Downgrades before the market open

    Netflix (NFLX) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo; target lowered to $265

  • 13:42

    Chicago Fed National Activity Index unexpectedly declines to -0.71 in October

    The Chicago Federal Reserve announced on Monday the Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI), a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators, came in at -0.45 in October, sharply down from an unrevised -0.45 in September, pointing to slower economic growth.

    Economists had forecast the index to come in at -0.43 in October.

    At the same time, the index’s three-month moving average fell to -0.31 in October from -0.21 in September.

    According to the report, two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index declined from September, and all four categories made negative contributions to the index in October. Production-related indicators made a negative contribution of -0.55 to the CFNAI in October, down from -0.36 in September. Meanwhile, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI edged up to -0.03 in October from -0.04 in September and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked up to -0.03 from -0.05 in September. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.10 to the CFNAI in October, down from +0.01 in September.

  • 13:32

    U.S.: Chicago Federal National Activity Index, October -0.71 (forecast -0.43)

  • 13:30

    Canada: Wholesale Sales, m/m, September 1%

  • 13:27

    USD longs slipped, EUR shorts increased – Rabobank

    Analysts at Rabobank note that the USD net longs slipped for a seventh consecutive week, as per the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders Report.

    • “Net EUR short positions increased but there has been no strong direction in recent weeks.
    • For the first time since September net short GBP positions increased suggesting that confidence could be wavering as the December 12 election nears.
    • JPY net positions held in negative ground for a fifth consecutive week and shorts continued to rise.
    • CHF net shorts increased for a fourth week consistent with a drop in safe haven demand.
    • CAD net long positions dropped back sharply for a second week. BoC Governor Poloz this month has reiterated the case for keeping the door open for further policy easing.
    • AUD net shorts continued to rise as further monetary stimulus comes back into view.”

  • 13:08
  • 13:05

    FOMC is sanguine about U.S. economy – RBS

    Analysts at the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) points out that the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting in October revealed the committee was pretty sanguine about the U.S. economy, thanks largely to continued positive consumer spending and a firm labour market.

    • “Risks remain “tilted to the downside”. In particular, concerns persist that the ongoing global slowdown could percolate to weaker domestic demand via slower hiring, threatening household spending, the mainstay of US growth. The current level of elevated US corporate debt and a potential widening in credit spreads via worsening credit quality were also mentioned.”

  • 12:42

    Germany's manufacturing sector is still in recession – TDS

    Analysts at TD Securities note that Germany's IFO recorded a small gain in November, with the headline rising from 94.7 to 95.0, exactly on top of consensus.

    “Details showed a 0.5pt improvement in expectations to 92.1 (mkt 92.5), and an essentially unchanged current assessment of 97.9 (mkt 97.9). A spokesperson from the IFO institute sounded quite cautious, noting that the manufacturing sector is still in recession, that export prospects have darkened, and that it's too early to speak of a turnaround in the economy, but at the same time, there are signs that business will be very good this Christmas.”

  • 12:22

    U.S. data on consumer confidence and Q3 GDP in focus this week – Deutsche Bank

    Analysts at Deutsche Bank point out that in the holiday-shortened week, U.S. will still witness some interesting data releases with consumer confidence (tomorrow), preliminary Q3 real GDP, October durable goods orders, October personal income/spending, the November Chicago PMI and the Fed’s Beige Book (Wednesday).

    • “Ahead of the December FOMC blackout period at the end of the week, Fed Chair Powell speaks this evening in Rhode Island and centrist Governor Brainard speaks tomorrow in New York to discuss the Fed's policy framework review.
    • Powell’s recent Congressional testimonies didn’t reveal anything new so it’s unlikely we’ll learn much from Powell tonight but we’ll tune in nonetheless. Our economists think there is a chance that tomorrow Brainard discusses more about possible future yield curve control as an addition to the Fed’s policy toolkit. This is something he is known to have support for.
    • For consumer confidence tomorrow, the reading has fallen for the last 3 consecutive months, but the consensus is looking for a slight uptick to 126.8 in November. For Wednesday our economists don’t expect any material revisions to the second print on Q3 real GDP (+1.9% preliminary vs. 1.9% advance), but the October durable goods data will provide an initial read on current-quarter capex spending if we can adjust for any impact from the GM strikes. A bounce back from these strikes should help the November Chicago PMI rebound (47 expected vs 43.2 last month) but there could be an additional boost from the recent stabilization and slight bounce in the global manufacturing data over the last couple of months.”

  • 12:00

    More signs of bottoming out of the German economy - ING

    Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING Germany, notes that Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, just added more evidence to a tentative bottoming out of the German economy. The Ifo index increased to 95.0 in November, from 94.7 in October. 

    • "This is the third month in a row with an increasing Ifo index, after 17 drops in 21 months. In November, both the current assessment and expectations component increased. However, before anyone gets overly cheerful, the headline number is still not even back at its July level.
    • The economy’s balancing act between solid consumption, services, public expenditures and construction on the one hand side, and weak activity in manufacturing on the back of trade uncertainty and weakness in the automotive sector on the other hand side continues. Particularly the manufacturing sector has made a significant u-turn since mid-2018; unfortunately for the worse. Back in the summer of 2018, slowing activity in the manufacturing sector was mainly the result of supply-side constraints. Now the lack of demand has become a huge concern, as pressing as in 2010.
    • Looking at the Ifo index per sector shows that confidence in the service sector has deteriorated since the early summer, while at the same time confidence in the manufacturing sector is showing first tentative signs of bottoming out. However, order books in the automotive industry are still close to levels last seen in early 2013. High inventories and thin order books do still not bode well for the manufacturing outlook in the near term.
    • It is part of Germany’s new economic modesty to appreciate a tiny increase in the Ifo index. Better than another disappointment. However, while today’s Ifo index suggests that the economy, and above all, the manufacturing sector, could be in a phase of bottoming out, a sharp rebound is not yet near."

  • 11:36

    PBoC: China will continue to implement prudent monetary policy, proactive fiscal policy

    • Downward pressure on economy is increasing
    • But economic resilience is still relatively strong
    • Potential risks, problems will be difficult to eliminate in the short-term
    • To further improve financial support to the real economy
    • Will steadily resolve shadow banking risks

  • 11:25

    Contraction in UK retail sales volumes unexpectedly eases in November - CBI

    The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported on Monday its latest survey of retailers showed retail sales volume balance rose to -3 in November from -10 in October. That marked the seventh consecutive month of decline in retail sales volume but represented the highest balance since April.

    Economist had forecast the reading to stay at -10.

    The report also revealed that orders placed on suppliers (-9) also fell for the seventh straight month in November. Meanwhile, retailers expect a recovery in orders growth next month (+12). Stock levels in relation to expected sales eased from the record high last month (to +30 from +52%) and are expected to return to broadly average in December (+18). Business conditions are forecast to remain stable over the quarter ahead (+4), following a steep weakening in expectations last quarter (-25). However, investment intentions for the year ahead declined for the sixth consecutive quarter (-38) and at a faster pace than last quarter (-19)

    Anna Leach, CBI Deputy Chief Economist noted: “Retailers are entering the festive season with a bit of hope that sales will head up, with the strongest expectations in half a year. Actual sales have also stabilized and have nudged above average for the time of year. And employment has stopped falling after three years of decline. But Brexit uncertainty continues to weigh on investment plans for the year ahead which remain weak. As the election period gets into full swing, retailers will welcome the prominence being given to fixing the broken business rates system. But it will be up to the next Government to turn warm words into action.”  

  • 11:00

    United Kingdom: CBI retail sales volume balance, November -3 (forecast -10)

  • 10:40

    EUR/GBP: rallies face initial resistance near 0.8630 – Commerzbank

    Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, suggested occasional bullish attempts in the European cross should meet initial hurdle in the 0.8630 area.

    “EUR/GBP has at last started to correct higher near term. We still have positive divergence on the daily RSI and may thus bounce near term. Rallies will find a minor downtrend at .8633 ahead of the four month downtrend line at .8795. Overhead resistance is reinforced by .8786 the mid-September low. Beyond this there is scope for the slide to extend to the .8465 2019 low. We note the TD support at .8485 and we look for the market to hold here”.

  • 10:24

    Is China GDP growth overstated? – Standard Chartered

    We disagree with claims that GDP growth in 2019 is overstated, which cite the disparity with income growth, explained Wei Li and Hunter Chan, economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

    “Some market participants believe China’s 2019 GDP growth has been overstated, citing the rising discrepancy between GDP growth and income growth. Nominal GDP grew 7.9% y/y in the first three quarters of 2019, while average income growth – measured by urban household disposable income, industrial profits and government tax revenues – was only 2.1% y/y, a discrepancy of 5.8ppt. In theory, these two growth rates should be equal. We estimate a discrepancy of 2.1ppt between GDP growth and income growth in the first three quarters of 2019, based on our preferred income indicators. This is within the historical range of 0.1-2.3ppt from 2013-17. Faster GDP growth by production than by income, in our view, reflects rising downward pressure on China’s economy since the beginning of 2019.“

  • 09:59

    US-China ‘phase one’ deal is ‘hollow’ and ‘ridiculous’ - Yale University professor

    The U.S.-China “phase one” trade deal is “hollow,” “flawed” and “ridiculous,” a Yale University professor told CNBC.

    Stephen Roach, senior lecturer at Yale University’s Jackson Institute, said the preliminary trade agreement was a “pretty hollow deal.”

    “It’s politically expedient, especially for the U.S. President who’s feeling a lot of political pressures for other reasons at home,” said Roach. “But it’s very flawed in that it focuses on a bilateral fix, operating on the U.S.-China bilateral deficit to address America’s multilateral trade imbalances with 102 countries.”

    Investors around the world have been eagerly awaiting the signing of the phase one trade deal between the world’s two largest economies, with markets experiencing volatility over the past month on the back of news related to the deal. The preliminary agreement, which is intended to pave the way to a more comprehensive deal, was hailed as a “very substantial phase one deal” by U.S. President Donald Trump in October.

    According to Roach, however, the deal would be more of a political win than an effective move toward tackling the underlying problems that sparked the trade conflict.

  • 09:39

    NZD/USD momentum remains positive, targeting 0.6470 – Westpac

    Analysts at Westpac offered a brief outlook for the NZD/USD pair, which managed to regain positive traction on Monday and held steady just below last week's swing high.

    "NZD/USD momentum remains positive, targeting 0.6470 during the week ahead. Fundamentals have been supportive recently: stronger housing and inflation data, rising NZ-US yield spreads thanks to the RBNZ’s less dovish outlook, and rising commodity prices over the past two months. Dairy prices have been a major part of the commodities story. Notably, whole milk powder is at a four-year high, with demand (China has dominated) and supply (globally tight) both contributing."

  • 09:19

    German IFO Business Climate Index rose in line with forecasts in November

    According to the report from Ifo Institute for Economic Research, German Business Climate Index came in at 95.0 in November, firmer than last month's 94.6 and meeting the consensus estimates. Meanwhile, the Current Economic Assessment arrived at 97.9 points as compared to last month's 97.8 and 98.0 anticipated. On the other hand, Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months, came in at 92.1 for November, up from previous month’s 91.5 reading but missed market expectations of 92.5.

    Following the release, the institute said that the German economy is showing resilience. "Manufacturing is still stuck in recession. The signs are that business will be very good this Christmas. German manufacturing companies planning further production cutbacks. Expects GDP growth of 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter", Ifo said.

  • 09:03

    Germany: IFO - Current Assessment , November 97.9 (forecast 98)

  • 09:03

    Germany: IFO - Expectations , November 92.1 (forecast 92.5)

  • 09:02

    Germany: IFO - Business Climate, November 95.0 (forecast 95.0)

  • 08:39

    USD: Base-case for USD to continue grinding slowly higher throughout 2020 - Barclays

    Barclays Research discusses the USD outlook and adopts a structural bullish bias through 2020.

    "The USD continues to grind slowly higher throughout 2020 in our forecasts. Despite moderate overvaluation, the USD retains – now and for the foreseeable future – a significant growth and returns advantage over peers, particularly on a risk-adjusted basis. Solid household and corporate balance sheets, greater relative momentum in activity, and meaningful monetary stimulus put the US in a better position heading into 2020 than nearly any other economy. With the exception of the yen, which benefits from diversification demand, the USD steadily but slowly outpaces other G10 currencies, advantaged by relative growth and carry. Higher-carry EM currencies outperform the USD early in 2020 amid improved risk tolerance, but ultimately fade without sustained support from growth,' Barclays adds.

  • 08:20

    The US-China trade war is the key problem for global growth - economist

    China’s slowing growth rate should not be a worry but an unresolved trade war between the world’s two largest economies should be, Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, told CNBC.

    “We’ve been arguing for some time that China slowing from a 7-8% back then to a 5.5% is a broadly healthy development,” Gruenwald told, adding that China’s labor force is currently “either flat or shrinking,” therefore the GDP per capita growth is still strong.

    In fact, the strained trade relationship is putting a greater dent on global growth than the direct impacts of tariffs he argued.

    “All the uncertainty around U.S.-China (trade relationship) is putting a damper on investments. You don’t know where the world’s two largest economies are going and what the investment environment is going to be,” he said.

    As the trade war intensifies, many American companies are moving supply chain logistics out of China and into Southeast Asian nations, namely Vietnam and the United States’ southern neighbor, Mexico.

    But that supply chain reconfiguration between U.S. companies and Chinese manufacturers is not significant enough to move “the macro data,” Gruenwald argued. What is affecting investment sentiment and long-term plans for companies is that they are uncertain about how to execute their five-year strategy plans, he said, and that is why companies are dialing back on spending.

    S&P Global Ratings’ estimated tariffs led to a 25 basis points affect on growth in both the U.S. and China, Gruenwald said. He added that the “somewhat nebulous confidence affect” seems to have a “bigger drag on growth” than tariffs.

  • 07:59

    EUR/USD could still re-test the vicinity of 1.1100 – Commerzbank

    According to Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, the pair could still attempt a test of the boundaries of 1.1100 while above the 1.0989 level.

    “EUR/USD is slipping back to the 1.0989 mid-November low. Whilst it holds, last week’s high at 1.1097 may be revisited, a rise above which would have the 1.1180 October high in its sights. Above 1.1180 will target the 200 week ma at 1.1359. Below 1.0989 lies the 1.0943 78.6% retracement”.

  • 07:40

    Trade talks, German ifo amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

    As the market focus remains on US-China trade developments, analysts at Danske Bank outlined this week's important market-moving economic releases.

    “Focus continues to be on US-China trade talks and the tentative signs of a bottoming in the global business cycle. Today, the German ifo index will provide more clues to the state of the euro area economy. A rise in manufacturing PMI new orders on Friday points to some upside risk to the ifo expectations index. Overall we expect the euro business cycle to stay soft in the short term but a gradual recovery in early 2020. Over the coming week, the main indicators to watch will be the core durable goods orders (a good capex indicator) and inflation data out of both the US and the euro area. In Scandi, focus this week turns to consumer and business surveys and Q3 GDP in Sweden as well as unemployment and retail sales in Norway.”

  • 07:20

    China and U.S. 'very close' to phase one trade deal - Global Times

    China and the United States are 'very close' to a phase one trade deal, the Global Times, a tabloid run by the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily, said.

    China also remains committed to continuing talks for a phase two or even a phase three deal with the United States, the state-backed Global Times said, citing experts close to the Chinese government.

    Trade experts and people close to the White House said last week that completion of a "phase one" deal, which had been expected in November, could slide into the new year, as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff rollbacks and Washington counters with demands of its own.

    According to U.S. and Beijing officials as well as lawmakers and trade experts, the ambitious "phase two" trade deal is looking less likely as the two countries struggle to strike a preliminary agreement.

  • 06:59

    IMF: BOJ should target shorter maturity yields to ease banking-sector strain

    • BOJ should consider adjusting YCC framework, shift 0% target to shorter maturity from current 10-year bond yield.

    • BOJ could abandon quantity guidance on bond buying, should consider an inflation range target to increase policy flexibility.

    • Monetary, financial sector policies should be better coordinated to enhance monetary policy sustainability, mitigate financial stability risks.

    • Near-term fiscal policy should complement BOJ’s efforts to spur growth.

    • Japan's economic growth expected to moderate, inflation to edge up but remain below BOJ’s target.

    • Rising economic policy uncertainty, increase in financial stability risks suggest rising risk profile for Japan.

    • Japan's financial regulator should encourage regional banks to diversify businesses.

    • A more accommodative monetary stance by other major central banks could lead to yen rise, undermine BOJ’s reflation efforts.

    • Yen's 2019 real exchange rate is preliminary assessed as consistent with fundamentals.

    • Staff scenario suggests sales tax rate needs to rise to 15% by 2030, 20% by 2050 to finance ageing costs.

  • 06:33

    Options levels on monday, November 25, 2019

    EUR/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.1155 (5261)

    $1.1112 (3034)

    $1.1077 (2060)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.1025

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.0982 (3506)

    $1.0943 (2853)

    $1.0897 (2445)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 101775 contracts (according to data from November, 22) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5570);


    GBP/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.2948 (3503)

    $1.2891 (736)

    $1.2861 (2117)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.2847

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.2818 (227)

    $1.2791 (1777)

    $1.2748 (1992)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 6 is 32835 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (5631);

    - Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 33673 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (2280);

    - The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.05 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 22

     

    * - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

    ** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

  • 05:03

    Japan: Leading Economic Index , September 91.9 (forecast 92.2)

  • 05:03

    Japan: Coincident Index, September 101.1 (forecast 101)

  • 02:30

    Commodities. Daily history for Friday, November 22, 2019

    Raw materials Closed Change, %
    Brent 63.55 -0.02
    WTI 57.92 -0.57
    Silver 16.98 -0.59
    Gold 1462.329 -0.17
    Palladium 1774.24 0.77
  • 00:30

    Stocks. Daily history for Friday, November 22, 2019

    Index Change, points Closed Change, %
    NIKKEI 225 74.3 23112.88 0.32
    Hang Seng 128.2 26595.08 0.48
    KOSPI 5.36 2101.96 0.26
    ASX 200 36.9 6709.8 0.55
    FTSE 100 88.26 7326.81 1.22
    DAX 26.18 13163.88 0.2
    CAC 40 11.92 5893.13 0.2
    Dow Jones 109.33 27875.62 0.39
    S&P 500 6.75 3110.29 0.22
    NASDAQ Composite 13.67 8519.88 0.16
  • 00:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Friday, November 22, 2019

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.67854 -0.01
    EURJPY 119.726 -0.31
    EURUSD 1.10211 -0.33
    GBPJPY 139.433 -0.52
    GBPUSD 1.28352 -0.54
    NZDUSD 0.64073 0.1
    USDCAD 1.3291 0.06
    USDCHF 0.99728 0.43
    USDJPY 108.627 0.02
Open Forex Demo Account
I understand and accept the Privacy Policy and agree that my name and contact details can be used by TeleTrade to contact me about the information I have selected.
37 International Awards
Have a question?

We are ready to assist you in every step of your trading experience
by providing 24/5 multilingual customer support.

Follow us

Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.55% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Prior to trading, you should take into consideration your level of experience and financial situation. TeleTrade strives to provide you with all the necessary information and protective measures, but, if the risks seem still unclear to you, please seek independent advice.

© 2011-2020 TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd

TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd is registered as a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) under registration number HE272810 and is licensed by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 158/11.

The company operates in accordance with Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID).

The content on this website is for information purposes only. All the services and information provided have been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd ("TeleTrade") and/or any third-party information providers provide the services and information without warranty of any kind. By using this information and services you agree that under no circumstances shall TeleTrade have any liability to any person or entity for any loss or damage in whole or part caused by reliance on such information and services.

TeleTrade cooperates exclusively with regulated financial institutions for the safekeeping of clients' funds. Please see the entire list of banks and payment service providers entrusted with the handling of clients' funds.

Please read our full Terms of Use.

To maximise our visitors' browsing experience, TeleTrade uses cookies in our web services. By continuing to browse this site you agree to our use of cookies. You may change your cookie consent or view our cookie declaration here.

TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd currently provides its services on a cross-border basis, within EEA states (except Belgium) under the MiFID passporting regime, and in selected 3rd countries. TeleTrade does not provide its services to residents or nationals of the USA.

Material posted here is solely for information purposes and reliance on this may lead to losses. Past performances are not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.55% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.