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Market news

9 December 2019
  • 23:30

    Schedule for today, Tuesday, December 10, 2019

    Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
    00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence November 2  
    01:30 China PPI y/y November -1.6% -1.5%
    01:30 China CPI y/y November 3.8% 4.2%
    06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y November -37.4%  
    06:30 France Non-Farm Payrolls Quarter III 0.2%  
    07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m October 0.3% 0.2%
    09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) October -1.8% -1.4%
    09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) October -1.4% -1.2%
    09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) October -0.3% 0.2%
    09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) October -0.4% -0.2%
    09:30 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance October -3.36  
    09:30 United Kingdom GDP m/m October -0.1% 0.1%
    10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment December -1 -17.7
    10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment December -2.1 0.3
    13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q Quarter III 2.5% -0.1%
    13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q Quarter III 2.4% 3.4%
    14:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate November 0.1% -0.1%
    23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence December 97.0  
    23:50 Japan BSI Manufacturing Index Quarter IV -0.2 4.5
  • 21:14

    Major US stock indexes finished trading in the red

    Major US stock indices fell moderately, as weak data on Chinese exports raised concerns about a slowdown in the world's second largest economy. Investors also tracked reports of trade negotiations between the US and China.

    China's assistant secretary of trade, Ren Hongbin, said Monday that the country hopes to strike a deal with the US "as soon as possible." Wren's comment came after data showed that Chinese exports fell for the fourth consecutive month in November, which could increase pressure on China to conclude a trade deal as soon as possible.

    Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, told CNBC on Friday that both sides are “close” to the agreement, but suggested that US President Donald Trump is ready to “change his mind” if certain conditions are not met. He also confirmed that December 15 remains the set date for the introduction of additional tariffs on Chinese goods worth about $ 156 billion, including mobile phones, laptops, toys and clothes. If these tariffs enter into force, this will have a negative impact on the entire market, and especially on the retail and IT sectors. In response, China threatened to introduce tariffs ranging from 5-25% for American cars and auto parts in the amount of about $ 37.5 billion. If both parties fulfill their tariff promises, almost all trade between the US and China will be subject to tariffs.

    The focus of market participants' attention is also on the two-day Fed meeting, which starts on Tuesday and as a result of which the US regulator is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

    Most DOW components recorded a decrease (17 out of 30). Outsiders were Apple Inc. (AAPL; -1.27%). The biggest gainers were The Home Depot Inc. (HD; + 1.12%).

    Most S&P sectors completed trading in the red. The largest decrease was shown by the conglomerate sector (-0.8%). The raw materials sector grew the most (+ 0.2%).

    At the time of closing:

    Index

    Dow 27,909.60 -105.46 -0.38%

    S&P 500 3,135.96 -9.95 -0.32%

    Nasdaq 100 8,621.83  -34.70 -0.40%

  • 20:50

    Schedule for tomorrow, Tuesday, December 10, 2019

    Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
    00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence November 2  
    01:30 China PPI y/y November -1.6% -1.5%
    01:30 China CPI y/y November 3.8% 4.2%
    06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y November -37.4%  
    06:30 France Non-Farm Payrolls Quarter III 0.2%  
    07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m October 0.3% 0.2%
    09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) October -1.8% -1.4%
    09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) October -1.4% -1.2%
    09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) October -0.3% 0.2%
    09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) October -0.4% -0.2%
    09:30 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance October -3.36  
    09:30 United Kingdom GDP m/m October -0.1% 0.1%
    10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment December -1 -17.7
    10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment December -2.1 0.3
    13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q Quarter III 2.5% -0.1%
    13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q Quarter III 2.4% 3.4%
    14:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate November 0.1% -0.1%
    23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence December 97.0  
    23:50 Japan BSI Manufacturing Index Quarter IV -0.2 4.5
  • 20:01

    DJIA -0.25% 27,945.48 -69.58 Nasdaq -0.22% 8,637.39 -19.14 S&P -0.18% 3,140.27 -5.64

  • 17:00

    European stocks closed: FTSE 100 7,233.90 -5.76 -0.08% DAX 13,105.61 -60.97 -0.46% CAC 40 5,837.25 -34.66 -0.59%

  • 16:13

    U.S. consumer inflation expectations recover from five-year low - New York Federal Reserve survey

    New York Federal Reserve survey revealed the U.S. consumers' inflation expectations increased slightly in November, bringing the outlook for near and medium-term inflation up from a five-year low, and potentially offering relief to policymakers worried about sagging inflation.

    The median outlook for what inflation will be over the next three years edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 2.5%, the survey showed.

    Meanwhile, expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose marginally by 0.02 percentage point to 2.4%. 

    In October, both inflation outlooks were at a series low for the survey, which began in 2013.

    The New York Fed survey also found that consumers are optimistic about the labor market and their job prospects. Workers' perceived risk of losing a job in the next 12 months declined to an average of 14.4% in November, from 14.8% in October. The average chance of finding work after a job loss also rose to 59.3% in November from 58.8% the month before.

    In addition, workers feel more confident in their ability to afford their bills. The average chance of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased to 11.3% in November from 11.6% the month before.

    Expectations for household income growth improved to 2.9% in November from 2.8% in October.

  • 15:38

    NZD momentum finally reflected in positioning - ING

    Francesco Pesole, an FX Strategist at ING, notes that the New Zealand dollar net speculative positions dropped by 13% of open interest in the week between 27 November – 3 December, and is now at -38%, according to CFTC data. 

    • "This move was widely expected as short-positions had previously held up surprisingly well, despite the mounting NZD momentum.
    • NZD remains the biggest G10 short amongst speculative investors as well as the only currency whose positioning falls outside the +/1 standard deviation band around its 5-year average. All of this suggests there is still some room for additional NZD short squeezing, which may continue to support the currency ahead.
    • The AUD net positioning also moved into less negative territory (+5% in the reference week), but a percentage of open interest remains around half of the shorts built-in NZD."

  • 15:22

    BoC likely to cut rates just once in 2020 – TDS

    Analysts at TD Securities say they have changed their call and are now looking for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut rates just once in April 2020.

    • “While the Canadian economy has thus far been resilient to global headwinds, we do not believe recent actions taken by the US and China to enough to meaningfully resolve the elevated level of trade uncertainty which should prompt the BoC to provide more stimulus to offset the impact of global headwinds.
    • Underscoring the BoC's (relatively) constructive outlook is a healthy starting point; Q3 GDP growth was in line with BoC projections at 1.3%, although historical revisions imply less excess supply in the economy and the composition (domestic demand rose by 3.2%) was favourable.
    • Core CPI remains target at 2.0% on average although further deterioration in the labour market will test the BoC's resolve.”

  • 15:00

    U.S. CPI likely to post 0.2% mom increase – Deutsche Bank

    Analysts at Deutsche Bank think that the main highlight for the U.S. markets is CPI release on Wednesday and the retail sales figures on Friday. 

    • “For the CPI, the consensus reading is expecting a +0.2% mom increase in both the main CPI and core CPI, while for retail sales a +0.4% mom increase is expected.
    • In more details on the CPI and detailing DB’s above consensus call, our economists suggest the gap between trimmed mean CPI and core CPI was 14bps in October, while the gap between the sticky CPI ex-shelter and core CPI was 19bps. These divergences are in the top 8% and 3% of historical experience, respectively.
    • As such, the team expects November core CPI to rise +0.26% month-over-month.”

  • 14:38

    Canada posts firm housing starts data for November – RBC

    Josh Nye, the senior economist at the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), notes that the Canadian housing starts were little changed at 201,000 in November with the six-month trend still at a robust 219,000.

    • “Housing starts held above the 200,000-mark for a sixth consecutive month in November and another solid month for permit issuance (in October) suggests home building will remain firm through the turn of the year.
    • On a six-month trend basis, activity has come off multi-year highs in Quebec and BC, while Ontario and the Prairies have seen a bit of a rebound, but not to earlier levels (particularly for the latter).
    • We expect starts will settle closer to the 200,000-mark going forward rather than the 209,000 pace set year-to-date. So while residential investment should remain a positive contributor to growth near-term, we don't expect Q3's double-digit annualized gain will be repeated.”

  • 14:33

    U.S. Stocks open: Dow -0.21%, Nasdaq -0.02%, S&P -0.14%

  • 14:24

    U.S. Agriculture Secretary Perdue: I do not believe the tariffs will be implemented on December 15

  • 14:21

    What to watch at this week's ECB meeting - ING

    Carsten Brzeski, a Chief Economist ING Germany, suggests that, with the eurozone economy somewhat stabilizing and inflation still quite far off the ECB’s target, there are hardly any economic arguments for Europe's central bank to adjust its monetary policy. 

    • "Judging from latest comments by senior ECB officials, a majority of the Governing Council seems happy with the current stance - any changes, even in the ‘soft’ communication, in our view would be a surprise.
    • Even without any changes to the monetary policy, this week’s ECB meeting should be anything but boring. Here are four things to look out for:
    1. Latest staff projections. Back in September, downward revisions of particularly the 2020 inflation forecasts, had been one the main arguments for the ECB’s relaunch of quantitative easing and another rate cut. The latest round of staff projections will very likely confirm the September projections.
    2. Adverse effects of unconventional measures. While the ECB’s last ‘Financial Stability Review’ acknowledged the adverse effects of unconventional monetary policy measures on the financial sector, leading figures from the Executive Board still emphasize the positive impact from, particularly negative interest rates. Chief Economist Philip Lane, for example, called current interest rate levels as not “super loose”. We will closely listen to Christine Lagarde to identify any changes in the ECB’s communication on the adverse effects, eventually leading to policy changes in 2020.
    3. Defining the Lagarde-style. Mario Draghi made a strong entrance at his very first press conference, elaborating on details of economic data. In the eight years of his term in office, there was never a slip of the tongue. Instead, the Draghi-style represented clear (at the risk of being boring) technical communication. As Christine Lagarde’s comments on monetary policy and vision has been rather sparse since she entered office on 1 November, market participants will closely watch her first press conference. We don’t expect Lagarde to structurally change the introductory statement but will be looking for any changes in style and language in the Q&A session.
    4. Strategic review and therapeutical session. While there should be little news on short-term monetary policy, markets will look at any hints on the upcoming strategic review as well as any comments on the rift between hawks and doves in the Governing Council."

  • 14:20

    Before the bell: S&P futures -0.11%, NASDAQ futures -0.15%

    U.S. stock-index futures fell slightly on Monday, as weak data on China’s exports for November brought back fears of a slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy, while investors awaited more news on U.S.-China trade deal, with less than a week to go before Washington is set to impose even more tariffs on Chinese goods.


    Global Stocks:

    Index/commodity

    Last

    Today's Change, points

    Today's Change, %

    Nikkei

    23,430.70

    +76.30

    +0.33%

    Hang Seng

    26,494.73

    -3.64

    -0.01%

    Shanghai

    2,914.48

    +2.46

    +0.08%

    S&P/ASX

    6,730.00

    +23.00

    +0.34%

    FTSE

    7,231.02

    -8.64

    -0.12%

    CAC

    5,840.35

    -31.56

    -0.54%

    DAX

    13,138.02

    -28.56

    -0.22%

    Crude oil

    $58.43


    -1.30%

    Gold

    $1,469.30


    +0.29%

  • 14:01

    Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

    (company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


    3M Co

    MMM

    169.5

    -1.97(-1.15%)

    3993

    ALCOA INC.

    AA

    20.74

    0.14(0.68%)

    1453

    ALTRIA GROUP INC.

    MO

    50.31

    -0.10(-0.20%)

    3279

    Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

    AMZN

    1,747.00

    -4.60(-0.26%)

    6577

    American Express Co

    AXP

    120.42

    -0.19(-0.16%)

    1510

    AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

    AIG

    51.8

    -0.06(-0.12%)

    100

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL

    270.22

    -0.49(-0.18%)

    178715

    AT&T Inc

    T

    38.1

    -0.10(-0.26%)

    31594

    Boeing Co

    BA

    353.4

    -0.69(-0.19%)

    5677

    Chevron Corp

    CVX

    116.85

    -1.16(-0.98%)

    3923

    Cisco Systems Inc

    CSCO

    43.92

    0.08(0.18%)

    15946

    Citigroup Inc., NYSE

    C

    75.6

    -0.21(-0.28%)

    3992

    E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

    DD

    64.47

    0.88(1.38%)

    1692

    Exxon Mobil Corp

    XOM

    69.25

    -0.26(-0.37%)

    2598

    Facebook, Inc.

    FB

    201.01

    -0.04(-0.02%)

    15902

    Ford Motor Co.

    F

    8.99

    -0.03(-0.33%)

    26234

    Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

    FCX

    11.72

    0.08(0.69%)

    37115

    General Electric Co

    GE

    11.05

    -0.05(-0.45%)

    39403

    General Motors Company, NYSE

    GM

    35.42

    -0.12(-0.34%)

    3870

    Goldman Sachs

    GS

    224

    -0.61(-0.27%)

    6952

    Google Inc.

    GOOG

    1,340.51

    -0.11(-0.01%)

    2121

    Hewlett-Packard Co.

    HPQ

    20.38

    -0.12(-0.59%)

    964

    Home Depot Inc

    HD

    214.22

    -0.06(-0.03%)

    1983

    HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

    HON

    172.95

    -2.51(-1.43%)

    163

    Intel Corp

    INTC

    56.38

    -0.43(-0.76%)

    67913

    International Business Machines Co...

    IBM

    132.9

    -0.32(-0.24%)

    8060

    Johnson & Johnson

    JNJ

    140.15

    -0.23(-0.16%)

    662

    JPMorgan Chase and Co

    JPM

    134.55

    -0.49(-0.36%)

    6983

    McDonald's Corp

    MCD

    195.65

    0.30(0.15%)

    3310

    Merck & Co Inc

    MRK

    89.4

    0.55(0.62%)

    10024

    Microsoft Corp

    MSFT

    150.85

    -0.90(-0.59%)

    84736

    Nike

    NKE

    97.12

    0.12(0.12%)

    3456

    Pfizer Inc

    PFE

    38.3

    0.01(0.03%)

    3536

    Procter & Gamble Co

    PG

    124.5

    0.31(0.25%)

    3089

    Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

    SBUX

    86.5

    0.18(0.21%)

    5815

    Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

    TSLA

    336.27

    0.38(0.11%)

    32431

    The Coca-Cola Co

    KO

    54.48

    0.06(0.11%)

    869

    Travelers Companies Inc

    TRV

    135.41

    0.51(0.38%)

    703

    Twitter, Inc., NYSE

    TWTR

    30.12

    -0.07(-0.23%)

    32747

    UnitedHealth Group Inc

    UNH

    280.21

    0.02(0.01%)

    1560

    Verizon Communications Inc

    VZ

    61.14

    -0.05(-0.08%)

    2191

    Visa

    V

    181.89

    -0.28(-0.15%)

    5445

    Wal-Mart Stores Inc

    WMT

    119.5

    -0.28(-0.23%)

    2399

    Walt Disney Co

    DIS

    148.1

    0.44(0.30%)

    24498

  • 13:39

    Initiations before the market open

    Apple (AAPL) initiated with a Buy at China Renaissance; target $342

  • 13:38

    Downgrades before the market open

    3M (MMM) downgraded to Neutral at Citigroup; target $180

  • 13:36

    Canada’s building permits unexpectedly fall in October

    Statistics Canada announced on Monday that the value of building permits issued by the Canadian municipalities fell 1.5 percent m-o-m in October, following a revised 5.9 percent m-o-m drop in September (originally a 6.5 percent m-o-m decrease).

    Economists had forecast a 3.0 percent gain in October from the previous month.

    According to the report, the value of residential permits declined 3.2 percent m-o-m in October, as permits for multi-family dwellings decreased by 3.4 percent m-o-m, and single-family permits dropped by 2.9 percent m-o-m.

    At the same time, the value of non-residential building permits increased 1.1 percent m-o-m in October, due to a surge in institutional permits (+24.9 percent m-o-m), which, however, was offset by declines in commercial (-5.3 percent m-o-m) and industrial (-1.1 percent m-o-m) permits.

    In y-o-y terms, building permits rose 1.1 percent in October.

  • 13:30

    Canada: Building Permits (MoM) , October -1.5% (forecast 3%)

  • 13:29

    Canada’s housing starts up 0.3 percent m-o-m in November

    The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) reported on Monday the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was at 201,318 units in November, up 0.3 percent from a downwardly revised 200,674 units in October (originally 201,973 units).

    Economists had forecast an annual pace of 207,500 for November.

    According to the report, urban starts increased by 0.4 percent m-o-m last month to 188,559 units, as multiple urban starts rose by 2.3 percent m-o-m to 141,753 units, while single-detached urban starts fell by 5.1 percent m-o-m to 46,806 units. At the same time, rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 12,759 units, down 0.1 percent m-o-m.

  • 13:14

    Canada: Housing Starts, November 201.3 (forecast 207.5)

  • 12:58

    Germany: Welcome surprise from exports - ING

    Carsten Brzeski, a Chief Economist ING Germany, notes that, after last week’s disappointing industrial data, this morning’s trade data brought some welcome relief for the economy. 

    • "At the same time, the unexpected increase in exports is also a bit of a headscratcher, as it does not fit the more general picture of a continued global slowdown. In October, German exports increased by 1.2% month-on-month, from 1.5% MoM in September. Exports have increased in seven of the last 10 months. On average, exports have increased by 0.1% MoM this year, compared with a flat reading in 2018. As imports remained unchanged in October, the non-seasonally adjusted trade balance widened to EUR21.5 billion, from EUR21.2 billion in September.
    • Despite the ongoing trade conflict and a slowdown in the global economy, German exports have held up surprisingly well in recent months. In fact, looking at bilateral trade data, exports to both China and the US have increased significantly compared with 2018. At the same time, exports to the UK and Italy have started to weaken. Interestingly, since 2017 Germany’s trade surplus with the US has actually widened, not narrowed.
    • Looking ahead, however, the ongoing drought in order books is a strong argument against any optimism. Export order books are currently as weakly filled as in 2010, during the upswing of the export sector after the 2009 recession. The downswing since the summer of 2018 is currently more severe than in 2011/12. At the same time, the downswing in 2011/12, which ended with the mini-recession at the end of 2012, was mainly driven by dropping demand from other Eurozone countries on the back of the euro crisis. Exports to non-European countries continued their upswing in this period."

  • 12:37

    Fed unlikely to move policy this week – Deutsche Bank

    Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that the U.S. Fed is not expected to move policy by anyone this week and is likely to maintain the status quo.

    • “The meeting won’t be without interest as they will release the latest Summary of Economic Projections, with market participants focusing on the dot plot as usual for clues as to whether member’s rate biases are changing. Friday’s payrolls number (more below) will likely give them some confidence in the outlook.”

  • 12:18

    GBP bracing for a big move - ING

    Petr Krpata, an FX strategist at ING, notes the main event of the week for sterling is the general election on Thursday. 

    • "The market is currently partly pricing in a Conservative victory (the final election debate last Friday and recent polls continue to point to such an outcome), with our short-term final fair value model suggesting a more than 2% 
    • Brexit resolution premium currently priced into GBP. Should the Conservative party gain a majority, we expect GBP/USD to move into the 1.34-35 area and EUR/GBP to drop to 0.82/0.83 levels. 
    • Conversely, a hung parliament would lead to a full pricing out of the GBP Brexit resolution premium, a rebuilding of sterling speculative shorts and GBP/USD likely dropping to 1.28 (and EUR/GBP rising above 0.8600 this week)."

  • 11:57

    New Zealand’s Survey of Manufacturing: Higher prices, soft activity - ANZ

    Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) note the fall in New Zealand’s Manufacturing gauge is broadly in line with the expectation for Q3 GDP of 0.4% q/q.

    • “Total manufacturing sales volumes fell 0.3% q/q in Q3 (seasonally adjusted), following a 2.7% fall in Q2. Of the 13 manufacturing industries, seven experienced a contraction from last quarter (meat and dairy; seafood processing; beverage and tobacco; textile, leather, clothing, and footwear; petroleum and coal products; chemical, polymer, and rubber; non-metallic mineral products manufacturing). 
    • Looking forward, the October rebound in the BNZ-BusinessNZ PMI (back into expansionary territory) tentatively suggests core manufacturing activity will pick up in Q4. But the PMI can be volatile on a m/m basis so this week’s read for November (out Friday 10:30 am) will be watched closely.
    • Broadly speaking, we think the slowdown in economic momentum is close to bottoming out, and that growth will gradually accelerate from H2 next year. Core manufacturing is expected to follow suit.”

  • 11:37

    USD to stay supported during the first part of the week - ING

    Petr Krpata, an FX strategist at ING, suggests the FOMC meeting (Wednesday) is unlikely to deliver a major surprise, with the Federal Reserve likely remaining on hold and Chair Jerome Powell re-emphasizing the data-dependent approach of the committee. 

    • "Instead, markets may be more focused on the fas- approaching 15 December deadline for US tariffs on Chinese exports. Uncertainty about this is likely to keep risk assets muted and the trade-weighted US dollar supported at the start of the week. 
    • Either a partial deal or an extension of the deadline on tariffs would help risk currencies into the year-end, particularly if general risk sentiment is helped by a market-friendly outcome to the UK election on Thursday. But for today, the dollar should stay supported."

  • 11:18

    FOMC to leave the target range unchanged – NBF

    Analysts at National Bank Financial (NBF) say the highlight of the week will be the central bank’s monetary policy meeting in the U.S.

    • “Heading into their communication blackout period, the message from Fed spokespersons was that both the economy and the target range for the fed funds rate were in a good place. This situation has not changed much judging from the findings of the latest Beige Book. The latter suggested that the U.S. economy as a whole continued to expand modestly from October through mid-November, an impression reinforced by recent purchasing manager surveys.
    • As such, barring unfavourable developments on the trade front in the coming days, we doubt the Fed 2020 central tendency GDP growth projection will be significantly altered, allowing the FOMC to remain “watchfully waiting” as Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester put it. Our base case scenario remains for the target range to be left unchanged at 1.50 to 1.75%.”

  • 10:58

    ECB to leave the interest rates unchanged this week – Deutsche Bank

    Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that the market is expecting no changes in interest rates from the ECB this week but the meeting will be closely watched as it’s the first monetary policy decision since President Lagarde came to office.

    “It’ll be interesting to see what she says in the subsequent press conference, and whether there are any updates on the upcoming strategic review. In their preview out late last week, our European economists write that they expect the Governing Council “will likely remain cautious and view the balance of risks as still tilted to the downside.” Yet they also say that they think Lagarde will make an immediate change, and they say that “we expect the willingness to use “all instruments” to be conditioned on an assessment of the possible side effects of policy.”

  • 10:41

    Fed on hold for at least a couple of meetings – Danske

    At the start of the key week including monetary policy report from the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed), Danske Bank came out with its research report. The bank terms the present Fed policies appropriate while anticipating the next rate cut in the autumn of 2020.

    "Following three cuts in a row, we expect the Fed to remain on hold (target range 1.50-1.75%) when it meets next week. FOMC members have made it clear that they think the 'current stance of monetary policy is appropriate' and that they now want to wait sometime and see how things play out before acting again. Focus is likely to be on the updated 'dots' (i.e. policy rate projection). Our base case is that the Fed may deliver a fourth cut sometime in the spring. However, this is not a high conviction call. We do not believe the US is heading for a recession but we think the economy is a bit more fragile than the Fed does. If the Fed affirms its wait-and-see stance, we could see USD rates go a bit higher, which should send EUR/USD lower. We forecast EUR/USD will go to 1.09 in 1M".

  • 10:19

    Fed, ECB, UK election and trade talks amongst market movers ahead – Danske Bank

    Analysts at Danske Bank offered a brief overview of key events lined this week, including central bank meeting (FOMC and ECB) and the highly anticipated UK general election.

    “In an otherwise eventful week, today is quite quiet in terms of economic data releases. Besides that we have the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. After three cuts in a row, we think the Fed will be on hold, as FOMC members have said the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate and the Fed wants to see how things play out. The ECB meets on Thursday, which will be Lagarde's debut, and we do not expect any changes. We will look for comments on the ECB's monetary policy strategy review. Also on Thursday, the UK is going to the ballot, which will be decisive for what will happen with Brexit. Polling stations close at 23:00 CET when we will also get our exit polls. We are also monitoring closely any comments on the US-China trade talks ahead of the 15 December tariff increases. We still expect a phase 1 deal but apparently there are a few obstacles for the two countries to get over before reaching an agreement (most thought it would have been done last month).”

  • 09:59

    Bank of France still expects economic growth at 0.2% in Q4

    Bank of France said that France's economic growth is expected to slow slightly in the fourth quarter.

    The bank retained its GDP growth estimate for the final three months of 2019 at 0.2 percent, which is slower than the 0.3 percent expansion in the third quarter.

    Survey data from the bank showed that the business confidence index for the manufacturing sector eased slightly to 97 from 98 in October. Manufacturers expect output growth to be weak in December. The confidence index for services edged up to 99 from 98 in October. Services firms expect activity to grow at a stronger rate in December. The sentiment indicator for the construction sector eased to 104 from 105 in October. Constructors expect the sector to grow at the same pace in December.

  • 09:47

    Eurozone investor confidence rose sharply in December - Sentix

    The Sentix research group said, the overall investor confidence index for Eurozone rises again, the expected values even reach the highest level since March 2018! Many things are going better than expected, the prospects are brightening across the globe. The Asia ex Japan region is developing into a special source of hope - especially for the German economy.

    Euro area pulls its head out of the noose

    Both the assessment of the current situation (+4.5 points) and the expectations (+6 points) are rising and confirm the dynamic turn of the sentix indication from the previous month. The second improvement in a row may be taken as an indication that the spectre of recession has been dispelled in the Euro zone. More and more investors are convinced that the worst is over for the economy in the Euro zone and that impulses from the central bank and politicians will stimulate the economy in the coming months.

    Germany is moving along

    It is pleasing that Germany is also getting some of the positive tailwind. As a former world export champion, the country has recently been particularly affected by problems in world trade. Now that a trend reversal has been confirmed - starting with the region Asia ex Japan - this automatically means an easing for the German economy. The overall index rises by 5.1 points, the current situation and expectations improve similarly. After all, the economic expectations for Germany are at their highest level since February 2018!

  • 09:30

    Eurozone: Sentix Investor Confidence, December 0.7

  • 09:14

    GBP/USD: A close above 1.3187 is pivotal – Commerzbank

    In the view of Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank, the GBP/USD pair is looking northwards on the UK election, with the bias to be confirmed on a close above 1.3187 May high.

    “GBP/USD last week reached its 5-year downtrend at 1.3156. Also found in this vicinity is the 50% retracement of the move down from 2018 at 1.3167 and the 1.3187 May high and this is tough resistance and we look for the market to fail here. We note the daily RSI has not confirmed the new high. Minor support is offered by 1.3013 October high and the 20-day ma at 1.2951 and this guards the 1.2768 8th November low. Failure at 1.2768 would probably see a slide to the 200-day ma at 1.2696. This guards the 1.2582 September high. Below 1.2582 lies the 1.2584 uptrend line. It guards 1.2196/94. A close above 1.3187 will open the way to the 1.3382 2019 high and potentially the 61.8% retracement at 1.3450.”

  • 09:00

    No change likely from ECB meeting, likely on hold through 2020 - Barclays

    Barclays Research discusses its expectations for ECB policy meeting. 

    "The monetary policy meeting will take place on 12 December, and this will be the first one chaired by Christine Lagarde. We expect her to reiterate the need for maintaining an accommodative policy stance in the current economic environment, and the call to euro area governments to support ECB action with appropriate fiscal policies. She will present the updated macroeconomic projections, which we believe will remain broadly unchanged from September, and we expect her to repeat the message of patience delivered by outgoing President Draghi at his last meeting in October. Given our view on the economic outlook for 2020, we now expect monetary policy to remain unchanged for the whole of 2020," Barclays adds.

  • 08:40

    EUR/JPY: Risks downside, with eyes on 119.38 uptrend - Commerzbank

    Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank, offers her view on trading EUR/JPY in the near-term.

    “EUR/JPY’s outlook remains negative following its failure at its 5-month downtrend, currently at 120.88. This is reinforced by resistance at 121.45/48 - this is the location of the 200-day ma, the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the late October high. While capped here, attention remains on the 119.38 uptrend. This should hold the initial test, however longer term the risk has increased for a break lower. Failure here will target the 117.09 October low ahead of the 115.87 September low.”

  • 08:21

    UK Election Preview: Conservative majority is our base case – Danske Bank

    Analysts at Danske Bank offered a brief preview of the upcoming UK general election on December 12 and are working with a base scenario of an absolute majority for the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party.

    “Our base case is that the Conservative Party will win an absolute majority, which would mean that PM Boris Johnson can get his Brexit deal through Parliament before Christmas (he will no longer need to rely on DUP votes and the moderate Conservative rebels who voted against him are either expelled or not seeking re-election, so the Conservative MPs will be more loyal to Johnson). Friday 20 December has been mentioned as a potential voting day. If, against our expectation, the opposition (Labour, LibDems, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens) secures a majority combined, we expect the parties eventually to call for a second EU referendum with "remain" as one of the options. Opinion polls show that "remain" is slightly ahead, but not by much. We may also end up in the situation with a very hung parliament, which is unable to pass anything. In this scenario, the UK will probably ask the EU for another extension, which we expect the EU to grant despite Brexit fatigue in Brussels. We are probably heading for another snap general election in this scenario. Our base case and consensus have been heavily converging on a Conservative majority. We think the embedded Brexit risk premium is essentially zero. However, momentum and euphoria can probably take Sterling even higher, even if only for a limited period of time. We would assume a drop to the tune of 0.5-1.0 percent in EUR/GBP under the base case, thus settling in at the high end of 0.83-0.84 in the days after the election. Under the alternative scenario of a hung parliament, we believe the market would sour and take EUR/GBP towards 0.86-0.88 range.”

  • 08:00

    China says hopes it can reach trade agreement with U.S. as soon as possible

    China said on Monday that it hoped to make a trade deal with the United States as soon as possible, amid intense discussions before fresh U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are due to kick in at the end of the week.

    Beijing hopes it can reach a trade agreement with the United States that satisfies both sides, Assistant Commerce Minister Ren Hongbin told.

    "On the question of China-U.S. trade talks and negotiations, we wish that both sides can, on the foundation of equality and mutual respect, push forward negotiations, and in consideration of each others' core interests, reach an agreement that satisfies all sides as soon as possible," Ren said.

    China and the United States are negotiating a so-called "phase one" deal aimed at de-escalating their prolonged trade dispute, but it is unclear whether such an agreement can be reached in the near term.

    Washington's next round of tariffs against Chinese goods are scheduled to take effect on Dec. 15.

  • 07:45

    US payrolls provide a warm seasonal glow to optimists - Rabobank

    The Rabobank Research Team offers their afterthoughts on the US Employment and Consumer Sentiment data released last Friday.

    “Friday’s US payrolls were strong, albeit boosted by the return of GM workers after a labor dispute. The 266K report and 41K two-month upwards revisions, 3.5% unemployment rate, and 3.1% y/y average earnings growth (albeit on a 1-tick miss in the m/m print at just 0.2%)--to say nothing of the stronger-than-expected Michigan sentiment and consumer credit surveys--all combined to provide a warm seasonal glow to optimists.”

  • 07:30

    Swiss unemployment rate remained unchanged in November

    State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said that Switzerland's unemployment rate remained unchanged in November.

    The jobless rate held steady at a seasonally adjusted 2.3 percent in November, in line with expectations. On an unadjusted basis, the jobless rate rose to 2.3 percent from 2.2 percent in October.

    The number of people out of work increased 4,646 from the previous month to 106,330 in November. Compared to the same period last year, unemployment decreased 4,144.

    The unemployment rate among youth aged between 15 and 24, remained stable at 2.3 percent in November, data showed.

    A total of 182’427 job seekers were registered, 5 ' 932 more than in the previous month. Compared with the same period of the previous year, this figure fell by 7,785 persons (-4.1%).

  • 07:15

    Germany's trade surplus rose slightly in October

    According to the report from Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), Germany exported goods to the value of 119.5 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 98.0 billion euros in October 2019. Destatis also reports that German exports increased by 1.9% and imports decreased by 0.6% in October 2019 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports were up 1.2% compared with September 2019, while imports remained nearly unchanged.

    The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 21.5 billion euros in October 2019. In October 2018, the surplus amounted to 18.7 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 20.6 billion euros in October 2019.

    A separate report from Deutsche Bundesbank showed that current account of the balance of payments showed a surplus of 22.7 billion euros in October 2019, which takes into account the balances of trade in goods including supplementary trade items (+22.5 billion euros), services (-4.3 billion euros), primary income (+9.0 billion euros) and secondary income (-4.5 billion euros). In October 2018, the German current account showed a surplus of 20.3 billion euros.

    In October 2019, Germany exported goods to the value of 70.0 billion euros to the Member States of the European Union (EU), while it imported goods to the value of 55.2 billion euros from those countries. Compared with October 2018, exports to the EU countries increased by 0.1%, while imports from those countries were down 0.2%. Exports of goods to countries outside the European Union (third countries) amounted to 49.5 billion euros in October 2019, while imports from those countries totalled 42.8 billion euros.

  • 07:01

    Germany: Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln, October 21.5

  • 07:01

    Germany: Current Account , October 22.7 (forecast 19.5)

  • 06:46

    Switzerland: Unemployment Rate (non s.a.), November 2.3%

  • 06:23

    Options levels on monday, December 9, 2019

    EUR/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.1192 (2895)

    $1.1168 (3770)

    $1.1151 (843)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.1060

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.1027 (5167)

    $1.0987 (3182)

    $1.0943 (2542)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 3 is 46580 contracts (according to data from December, 6) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5286);


    GBP/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.3307 (366)

    $1.3273 (384)

    $1.3247 (339)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.3156

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.3030 (486)

    $1.3002 (927)

    $1.2972 (81)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 3 is 19576 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (4997);

    - Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 3 is 15755 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (1609);

    - The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.80 versus 1.16 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 6

     

    * - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

    ** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

  • 05:16

    Japan: Eco Watchers Survey: Current , November 39.4 (forecast 39.3)

  • 05:16

    Japan: Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook, November 45.7 (forecast 40.5)

  • 02:30

    Commodities. Daily history for Friday, December 6, 2019

    Raw materials Closed Change, %
    Brent 64.84 1.55
    WTI 58.99 1.22
    Silver 16.56 -2.19
    Gold 1460.421 -1.04
    Palladium 1876.05 0.2
  • 00:30

    Stocks. Daily history for Friday, December 6, 2019

    Index Change, points Closed Change, %
    NIKKEI 225 54.31 23354.4 0.23
    Hang Seng 281.33 26498.37 1.07
    KOSPI 21.11 2081.85 1.02
    ASX 200 24 6707 0.36
    FTSE 100 101.81 7239.66 1.43
    DAX 111.78 13166.58 0.86
    CAC 40 70.36 5871.91 1.21
    Dow Jones 337.27 28015.06 1.22
    S&P 500 28.48 3145.91 0.91
    NASDAQ Composite 85.83 8656.53 1
  • 00:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Friday, December 6, 2019

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.6839 0.11
    EURJPY 120.059 -0.58
    EURUSD 1.10594 -0.4
    GBPJPY 142.643 -0.32
    GBPUSD 1.31401 -0.14
    NZDUSD 0.65691 0.35
    USDCAD 1.32583 0.63
    USDCHF 0.98981 0.29
    USDJPY 108.553 -0.18
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