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30 October 2019
  • 23:50

    Japan: Industrial Production (MoM) , September 1.4% (forecast 0.4%)

  • 22:30

    Schedule for today, Thursday, October 31, 2019

    Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
    00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence October -53.5 -54.1
    00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence October -12 -13
    00:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q Quarter III 3.8% -0.5%
    00:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q Quarter III 0.9% 0.1%
    00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m September 0.2% 0.2%
    00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September 2.9%  
    00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m September -1.1% 0.5%
    01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI October 53.7 53.9
    01:00 China Manufacturing PMI October 49.8 49.8
    03:00 Japan BOJ Outlook Report    
    03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%
    05:00 Japan Construction Orders, y/y September -25.9%  
    05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y September -7.1% -6.7%
    05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence October 35.6 35.5
    07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y September 3.2% 3.5%
    07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted September 0.5% 0.2%
    07:45 France CPI, y/y October 0.9%  
    07:45 France CPI, m/m October -0.3%  
    10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y October 1% 1%
    10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y October 0.8% 0.7%
    10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate September 7.4% 7.4%
    10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) Quarter III 1.2% 1.1%
    10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) Quarter III 0.2% 0.1%
    12:30 Canada Industrial Product Price Index, m/m September 0.2% 0.2%
    12:30 Canada Industrial Product Price Index, y/y September -1%  
    12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1682 1680
    12:30 U.S. Employment Cost Index Quarter III 0.6% 0.7%
    12:30 U.S. Personal spending September 0.1% 0.2%
    12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) August 0% 0.2%
    12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m September 0.1% 0.1%
    12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y September 1.8% 1.7%
    12:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m September 0.4% 0.3%
    12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 212 215
    13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index October 47.1 48
    15:30 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks    
    21:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index October 54.7  
    23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate September 2.2% 2.3%
  • 21:45

    New Zealand: Building Permits, m/m, September 7.2% (forecast 2.3%)

  • 19:50

    Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, October 31, 2019

    Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
    00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence October -53.5 -54.1
    00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence October -12 -13
    00:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q Quarter III 3.8% -0.5%
    00:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q Quarter III 0.9% 0.1%
    00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m September 0.2% 0.2%
    00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September 2.9%  
    00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m September -1.1% 0.5%
    01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI October 53.7 53.9
    01:00 China Manufacturing PMI October 49.8 49.8
    03:00 Japan BOJ Outlook Report    
    03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%
    05:00 Japan Construction Orders, y/y September -25.9%  
    05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y September -7.1% -6.7%
    05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence October 35.6 35.5
    07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y September 3.2% 3.5%
    07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted September 0.5% 0.2%
    07:45 France CPI, y/y October 0.9%  
    07:45 France CPI, m/m October -0.3%  
    10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y October 1% 1%
    10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y October 0.8% 0.7%
    10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate September 7.4% 7.4%
    10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) Quarter III 1.2% 1.1%
    10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) Quarter III 0.2% 0.1%
    12:30 Canada Industrial Product Price Index, m/m September 0.2% 0.2%
    12:30 Canada Industrial Product Price Index, y/y September -1%  
    12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1682 1680
    12:30 U.S. Employment Cost Index Quarter III 0.6% 0.7%
    12:30 U.S. Personal spending September 0.1% 0.2%
    12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) August 0% 0.2%
    12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m September 0.1% 0.1%
    12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y September 1.8% 1.7%
    12:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m September 0.4% 0.3%
    12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 212 215
    13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index October 47.1 48
    15:30 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks    
    21:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index October 54.7  
    23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate September 2.2% 2.3%
  • 18:00

    U.S.: Fed Interest Rate Decision , 1.75% (forecast 1.75%)

  • 15:58

    BoC governor Poloz: Canadian economy is demonstrating resilience overall

    • Worsening global situation was primary issue for BoC deliberation
    • Heightened uncertainty about future trade policy is hitting business investment
    • BoC determined insurance cuts were not warranted
    • Monetary policy can only do so much about these elements of shock
    • Adjust to large shock in change in oil market takes a long time
    • Excess supply probably isn't pervasive
    • Our situation differs from others in that inflation is close to target
    • BoC considered whether the downside risks were significant enough for an insurance cut but we determined that they were not worth the risks; but the situation will require monitoring
    • We will be watching for any changes to fiscal policy at the Federal level now that election is behind us
    • We're opening up a modest output gap
    • Output gap isn't anything to ignore
    • We will weigh the risks in their totality
    • There are costs associated with an insurance cut
    • Opening of output gap will have a minor inflation effect
    • We are not an island, we are not immune from global developments but we are in a good place to cope
    • There is substantial monetary stimulus in the system, that's been a factor for a long time
    • CAD has been relatively stable against USD, but USD has been strong globally
    • On languages change: It's best not to say the same thing every time
    • A new NAFTA deal and China-US phase one deal would cause uncertainty to stop rising
    • We definitely talked about what a rate cut would look like
    • The best solution is to hold firm and watch things develop
    • Says they didn't discuss rate cut in September because they didn't have updated forecasts

  • 15:53

    U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: Not at point of making a recommendation to U.S. President Trump on the disposition of scheduled December 15 tariffs on Chinese goods - Reuters

    • Says it will take some time to scale up China's agricultural purchase to $40-50 billion annual target
    • Agricultural targets in phase one trade deal are based on Chinese commitments to buy specific products 
    • Encouraged by the Chinese vice commerce minister's comments on planned market openings, removal of certain investment restrictions
    • Pledges to open financial services market and eliminate forced tech transfers are "consistent with our agreement for phase one trade deal"
    • China financial services market openings not based on anything negotiated during Obama-era bilateral investment treaty talks
    • No trip planned to Beijing for more in-person talks, phone calls have been productive and will continue

  • 15:02

    U.S. GDP above expectations, but a slowdown is ahead – Nordea

    Nordea Markets' analysts note that the US GDP for Q3 came in at 1.9 % q/q annualized, slightly lower than in Q2.

    • “Going forward, we expect growth to slow further, though a trigger is probably needed for a recession to materialize. Today’s numbers should not impact tonight’s FOMC decision.
    • US third-quarter GDP came in slightly above expectations at 1.9% q/q annualized (Nordea: 1.5%, consensus: 1.5%, previous: 2.0%). This indicates that the US economy is currently growing close to potential (≈1.8%), although the output gap remains positive.
    • Consumer spending remained strong, while investments stayed weak. Hence, non-residential investments was the main negative contributor, while residential investments (housing) on the other hand reduced some of the negative impulses in Q3. The latter is the main reason for the positive surprise.
    • Adding to the overall slightly positive surprise is that Q3 was most likely temporarily negatively impacted by the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max jet and to a lesser extent the General Motors strike (started 16 September). Hence, those negative impulses should to some extent turn positive in Q4.”

  • 14:37

    EIA’s report reveals much- bigger-than-forecast increase in U.S. crude oil inventories

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories increased by 5.702 million barrels in the week ended October 25. Economists had forecast a gain of 0.500 million barrels.

    At the same time, gasoline stocks declined by 3.037 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 2.300 million barrels. Distillate stocks reduced by 1.032 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 2.400 million barrels.

    Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. was unchanged at 12.600 million barrels a day.

    U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.7 million barrels per day last week, up by 840,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

  • 14:30

    U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, October 5.702 (forecast 0.494)

  • 14:21

    BoC maintains its benchmark interest rates at 1.75%

    The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 1.75 percent on Wednesday, as widely expected.

    In its policy statement, the Canadian central bank said that Governing Council judged it appropriate to maintain the current level of the overnight rate target. According to the BoC, the Governing Council is mindful that the resilience of Canada’s economy will be increasingly tested as trade conflicts and uncertainty persist and it will pay close attention to the sources of this resilience (notably consumer spending and housing activity), as well as to fiscal policy developments.

    It also added that Canada’s economy is expected to slow in the second half of this year to a rate below its potential due to the uncertainty associated with trade conflicts, continuing adjustment in the energy sector, and the unwinding of temporary factors that boosted growth in the second quarter. The BoC projects the real GDP to grow by 1.5 percent this year (up from its previous estimate of +1.3 percent), 1.7 percent in 2020 (down from +1.9 percent previously) and 1.8 percent in 2021 (down from +2.0 percent previously). Meanwhile, business investment and exports are seen to contract before expanding again in 2020 and 2021. In regard to price pressure, the Canadian central bank expects the CPI inflation likely to dip temporarily in 2020 as the effect of a previous spike in energy prices fades.

  • 14:00

    Canada: Bank of Canada Rate, 1.75% (forecast 1.75%)

  • 13:43

    Germany’s annual inflation decelerates further in October

    Germany's Federal Statistical Office reported on Wednesday the country’s consumer price index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.1 m-o-m in October after being unchanged m-o-m in the previous month.

    On the y-o-y basis, Germany’s inflation rate is seen to rise 1.1 percent this month, following a 1.2 percent gain in September. That would be the lowest reading since February 2018.

    Economists had predicted inflation would be flat m-o-m and would increase 1.1 percent y-o-y in October.

    According to the report, food price growth decelerated to 1.1 percent y-o-y in October from 1.3 percent y-o-y in September, while energy prices fell 2.1 percent y-o-y, following a drop of 1.1 percent y-o-y in the previous month. Services costs rose 1.7 percent y-o-y in October after a 1.8 percent y-o-y climb in September.

    Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices for Germany (HICP), which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to increase 0.1 percent m-o-m and 0.9 percent y-o-y.

  • 13:35

    China's manufacturing PMI to edge higher in October – TDS

    Analysts at TD Securities are expecting China's official manufacturing PMI to edge higher to 49.9 in October from 49.8 previously.

    • “The US-China trade ceasefire will have helped to put a floor under the PMIs. China appears to have opened the credit taps further over recent weeks, with monetary aggregates accelerating, giving more support to manufacturers via easing liquidity pressures.
    • Finally, although the CNY has strengthened vs. USD it has weakened to multi-year lows on a trade-weighted basis (CFETS), a factor that will provide another source of relief to manufacturers.”

  • 13:02

    Election outcome in UK to be a determining factor for the Brexit end-game – Nordea

    Morten Lund, an analyst at Nordea Markets, notes that the UK is set for its third general election in four years, as PM Boris Johnson yesterday finally won the backing of the House of Commons to hold a snap election.

    • “The election is scheduled to take place on 12 December. The combination of an election and an extension of the Brexit deadline until 2020 is in line with our long-held house view.
    • The outcome of the December election will, in our view, be a determining factor for the Brexit end-game. As such, the upcoming election could be seen as a proxy vote for the people’s view on Brexit.
    • The timing of the election in December and dissolution of Parliament on Wednesday 6 November (due to the 25 working days rule) mean that there will be practically no time to pass a Withdrawal Agreement Bill before Christmas. Consequently, the Brexit end-game will at the earliest be in 2020.”

  • 13:00

    Germany: CPI, m/m, October 0.1% (forecast 0%)

  • 13:00

    Germany: CPI, y/y , October 1.1% (forecast 1.1%)

  • 12:35

    U.S. economy rises more than expected in Q3

    The Commerce Department released on Wednesday its "advance" estimate for the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2019, which revealed the U.S. economy grew more than expected in the reviewed period.

    According to the estimate, the U.S. real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent q-o-q last quarter, after rising by 2.0 percent q-o-q in the second quarter of 2019.

    Economists had expected GDP to grow by 1.6 percent.

    According to the report, the gain in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and exports, which, however, were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, rose.

    At the same time, the deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter reflected slowdowns in PCE, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, and a larger decline in nonresidential fixed investment. These movements, however, were partly offset by a smaller drop in private inventory investment, and upturns in exports and in residential fixed investment.

  • 12:30

    U.S.: PCE price index, q/q, Quarter III 1.5% (forecast 2%)

  • 12:30

    U.S.: GDP, q/q, Quarter III 1.9% (forecast 1.6%)

  • 12:23

    U.S. private employers add 125,000 jobs in October- ADP

    The employment report prepared by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and Moody's Analytics showed on Wednesday the U.S. private employers added 125,000 jobs in October.

    Economists had expected a gain of 120,000.

    The increase for September was revised sharply down to 93,000 from the originally reported 135,000.

    " While job growth continues to soften, there are certain segments of the labor market that remain strong,” noted Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The goods producing sector showed weakness; however, the healthcare industry and midsized companies had solid gains.”

    Meanwhile, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth has throttled way back over the past year. The job slowdown is most pronounced at manufacturers and small companies. If hiring weakens any further, unemployment will begin to rise.”

  • 12:14

    NZD/USD seen to move within a consolidative range so far – UOB

    FX Strategists at UOB Group see the NZD/USD to extend the sideline theme in the next weeks.

    • "24-hour view: We highlighted yesterday that “the recovery in NZD has scope to test 0.6370”. We added, “the next resistance at 0.6385 is unlikely to come into the picture”. NZD briefly popped to a high of 0.6375 before easing off to trade sideways for the rest of the sessions. Momentum indicators have turned neutral and the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, NZD is expected to trade sideways for today, likely between 0.6335 and 0.6375.
    • Next 1-3 weeks: We indicated in our last update on 23 Oct (spot at 0.6405) that “NZD has to crack the strong 0.6450 level within these few days or the risk of a top would increase quickly”. The subsequent breach of the ‘strong support’ level suggests that last week’s 0.6436 peak is a short-term top (we previously expected a move to 0.6450). The current movement is viewed as an on-going consolidation phase and NZD is expected to trade sideways between 0.6300 and 0.6410 for now."

  • 11:52

    U.S. GDP likely to print 2.0% for Q3 – TDS

    Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the U.S. GDP growth to have maintained second-quarter pace, printing 2.0% QoQ saar for Q3 (market: 1.6%).

    • “Reflecting ongoing uncertainty, we expect nonresidential fixed investment to have declined during the quarter, and private consumption to have slowed down following Q2's strong 4.7% print. Inventories and net exports likely reduced GDP growth again in Q3.”

  • 11:32

    BoC expected to keep rates unchanged – TDS

    Analysts at TD Securities point out the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 1.75% in October, putting the focus on the policy statement and updated economic projections.

    • “While economic data has been largely upbeat since the July MPR, we do not think this is enough for the BoC to change its tune. We look for the communique to maintain the overall tone from July, while economic projections will try and balance a mark-to-market upgrade tof 2019 with modest downgrades to 2020.
    • The Bank will release its policy statement & MPR at 10:00 ET which will be followed by an 11:15 ET press conference.”

  • 11:10

    U.S. weekly mortgage applications increase

    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. rose 0.6 percent in the week ended October 25, following an 11.9 percent plunge in the previous week.

    According to the report, applications to purchase a home climbed 2.3 percent, while refinance applications declined 0.5 percent.

    Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate edged up to 4.05 percent from 4.02 percent.

    “The 10-year Treasury rate rose slightly last week, as markets expected more progress toward a trade deal between the U.S. and China,” noted Joel Kan, the MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.

  • 10:58

    US: Q3 growth likely to slow to 1.5% annualised – Deutsche Bank

    Deutsche Bank analysts point out that the FOMC will get one final important data release prior to the meeting with a first look at US Q3 GDP at 12.30pm GMT.

    “The consensus is for growth to slow to 1.6% annualised while our economists forecast 1.5%. Remember that this compares to 2.0% growth in Q2. Our economists make the point that the Fed’s median 2019 growth estimate in the September Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) increased a tenth to 2.2%, which implied back half growth of roughly 1.9% annualised. The details of the Q3 GDP report may therefore prompt Fed officials to begin marking down their forecasts ahead of the next SEP release at the December meeting. At a minimum, the Q3 output data should serve as a benchmark for gauging the data going into the December meeting.”

  • 10:40

    FOMC to take out further insurance against downside risks – Westpac

    Westpac analysts suggest that there is still a pressing need for the FOMC to take out further insurance against downside risks.

    “Evident in recent data is further weakness in investment as well as a significant deterioration in business conditions – as assessed by the ISMs. Of greater concern still, growth in employment and hourly earnings have both throttled back. If sustained, these trends will put consumer sentiment and spending at risk. We therefore expect the FOMC to cut the federal funds rate at the October meeting and to remain open to taking further action in coming months. A December cut and those we see in March and June will require a further slowing of growth.”

  • 10:21

    Eurozone economic sentiment index down more than forecast in October

    According to the report from European Commission, in October 2019, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) decreased in both the euro area (by 0.9 points to 100.8) and the EU (by 0.9 points to 99.0). Economists had expected a decrease to 101.1 in the euro area.

    The deterioration of euro-area sentiment resulted from lower confidence in industry, services, retail trade and among consumers, while confidence improved markedly in construction. The slight decrease in industry confidence (−0.6) resulted from managers' more pessimistic production expectations, while their views on the current level of overall order books and the stocks of finished products remained virtually unchanged. The moderate decline in services confidence (−0.5) was driven by managers' more pessimistic views on the past business situation and demand expectations, while their assessment of past demand remained virtually stable. The decrease in consumer confidence (−1.1) reflected the strong deterioration in households’ expectations about the general economic situation and their future financial situation, while their assessments of their past financial situation and their intentions to make major purchases edged down. The drop in retail trade confidence (−0.9) resulted from more negative views on both the present and expected business situation and, in particular, the adequacy of the volume of stocks. The marked increase in construction confidence (+1.3) was fuelled by managers' more optimistic employment expectations and, to a lesser extent, their assessment of the level of order books. Finally, financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) fell (−7.5), reflecting strong deterioration in managers' demand expectations and their assessments of the past business situation and past demand.

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, October -7.6 (forecast -7.6)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Economic sentiment index , October 100.8 (forecast 101.1)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Business climate indicator , October -0.19 (forecast -0.24)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Industrial confidence, October -9.5 (forecast -8.9)

  • 09:40

    FOMC amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

    Danske Bank analysts suggest that today we have a busy schedule ahead of us with the FOMC meeting tonight (at 18:00 GMT) being today's highlight, where Danske Bank analysis team is expecting another 25bp cut.

    “Also today, the first estimate of GDP growth in Q3 is due out , which we expect to come out at 1.8% q/q AR. US growth has peaked, as investments are struggling in the current environment and private consumption is not growing as fast as previously. In euro markets, focus turns to ECB's tiering system taking effect today . So far, markets are showing little to no signs of a tiering premium. Tomorrow's STR fixing will shed more light on this. Also, ECB could start buying bonds as part of its resumption of the APP of EUR20bn/ month, with settlement for Friday. Overnight, Bank of Japan will hold its policy rate meeting. We expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep the policy rate and yield curve control unchanged, however, we see them making great efforts to highlight its willingness to act if needed. Markets price around 40% probability of a cut. Chinese official PMI are due over night (Caixin during night to Friday). We expect the official PMI manufacturing to land at a flat reading at 49.8.”

  • 09:19

    German jobless total rises more than expected in October

    German unemployment rose more than expected in October, data from the Federal Labour Office showed, suggesting that a manufacturing crisis in Europe’s largest economy is spilling over to the labor market.

    Number of people out of work increased by 6,000 to 2.287 million in seasonally adjusted terms. That compared with forecast for a rise of 2,000. This increase is due solely to the development in the area of unemployment insurance due to the economic downturn. The number of unemployed remained unchanged compared with the previous year. The jobless rate held steady at 5.0% - slightly above the record-low of 4.9% reached earlier this year.

    Underemployment, which also includes changes in labour market policy and short-term incapacity for work, has declined by 4,000 seasonally adjusted compared with the previous month. Overall, the underemployment in October 2019 was 3,129,000 persons. That was 13,000 less than a year ago.

    “The recent economic weakness is leaving its marks on the job market. But all in all, it still proves to be robust,” said Labour Office head Detlef Scheele.

  • 09:05

    Global growth slowing, modest drag on U.S. - Treasury's Mnuchin

    Global growth is slowing and has modestly impacted the United States, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, adding the U.S. economy remained strong with good capital inflows.

    "There is no question that the global economy is slowing down and that has had some modest drag on the U.S. economy," he said at an investment conference in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

    Mnuchin also said Europe needed to do more on the fiscal and regulatory side to maintain growth.

  • 09:00

    Switzerland: Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations), October -30.5 (forecast -6.8)

  • 08:55

    Germany: Unemployment Rate s.a. , October 5% (forecast 5%)

  • 08:55

    Germany: Unemployment Change, October 6 (forecast 2)

  • 08:44

    UK: Difficult to predict the outcome from polls – Danske Bank

    Danske Bank analysts suggest that the forthcoming UK elections are an EU referendum in disguise. 

    “PM Johnson will campaign on his 'Get Brexit Done' platform arguing the public should give him the mandate to implement his Brexit deal. LibDems, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens are likely to campaign for a second EU referendum (with 'remain' as an option on the ballot). It is more difficult to say what platform Labour is campaigning, as Labour in reality has not clarified its position on Brexit. However, we would expect Labour to back a second EU referendum eventually. This means we may soon get to the Brexit end game, unless we get a (very?) hung parliament without a clear/stable majority, like we did in 2017. If this is the case, the period of high uncertainty and confusion will continue and the UK may need another extension beyond 31 January. Overall, the tail risk of a no deal Brexit has declined substantially and investors have priced out a lot of negativity in GBP. The election does not change this. Unfortunately, it is difficult to translate polls into mandates due to the 'winner takes all' election system. The election results in 2015 and 2017 caught most by surprise.”

  • 08:29

    JPY: Could gain a bid if BoJ stands pat this week - Citi

    Citi discusses its expectations around this week's BoJ policy meeting. 

    "Potentially retaining a bid in JPY is the likelihood of the BoJ standing pat at its meeting this week. The Nikkei reports Sunday that the BoJ looks likely to refrain from additional easing following similar reports from the Asahi Shimbun on Saturday and Bloomberg last Thursday (note that JPY short rates are pricing a decent probability of a further 10bp cut to the BoJ’s deposit rate by Q1’2020)," Citi notes. 

    "Citi analysts also expect no change in BoJ policy which could be marginally supportive for JPY sentiment," Citi adds.

  • 08:15

    Swiss leading Indicator rose markedly in October - KOF

    KOF Economic Research Agency said, economic barometer has halted its downward movement, at least for the time being. At 94.7 points, however, the barometer is still well below its long-​term average. The Swiss economy is therefore likely to grow with below-​average rates in the upcoming months.

    In October, the KOF Economic Barometer rose by 1.6 points, from 93.1 points in September (revised from 93.2 points) to 94.7 points. Economists had expected an increase to 93.9.

    This increase is attributable in particular to bundles of indicators from the banking and insurance sector as well as from accommodation and food service activities. Furthermore, indicators regarding foreign demand and other services are pointing in a slightly less negative direction than in the previous month. On the other hand, indicators from the manufacturing sector record a slight decline. In the goods producing sectors (manufacturing and construction), the indicators on the number of employees and on barriers to production burden the development. Export prospects are also subdued in the coming months. However, production is expected to develop somewhat more positively, albeit still below average.

  • 08:00

    Switzerland: KOF Leading Indicator, October 94.7 (forecast 93.9)

  • 07:58

    French consumer spending unexpectedly declined in September

    According to the report from Insee, in September 2019, household consumption expenditure on goods decreased by 0.4% in volume. Economists had expected a 0.1% increase. This decrease was explained by the downturn in manufactured good spending (–1.3%). Food purchases bounced back (+0.5%) whereas energy consumption was virtually stable (–0.1%). Over the whole quarter, household expenditure on goods bounced back compared to the previous quarter (+0.4% after –0.1%).

    In September, manufactured good consumption decreased (–1.3%) after rising for four consecutive months. Durable good purchases decreased (–2.2%) as well as textile-clothing spending (–1.2%). Other manufactured good consumption went up slightly (+0.2%). Over the quarter, manufactured good spending recovered (+1.6% after –0.4%).

    In September, durable good expenditure fell sharply (–2.2% after +1.8%), due to a drop in car sales, in particular new ones. Housing equipment sales also decreased (–0.6%), in particular furniture purchases. Over the quarter, durable good purchases bounced back sharply (+2.8% after –0.8%).

    Expenditure on textile-clothing decreased in September (–1.2% after +2.1%). In particular, footwear sales fell sharply, after a large increase in August. Over the quarter, textile and clothing consumption went down slightly (–0.1% after +0.4%).

  • 07:46

    France: Consumer spending , September -0.4% (forecast 0.1%)

  • 07:30

    Germany’s DIHK cuts its 2019 German GDP growth forecast

    DIHK President Eric Schweitzer said German exports are expected to shrink next year, marking the first fall since the global financial crisis.

    "For our economy, with its strong industrial core, this is a huge challenge. Expects Germany's annual export growth to slow to 0.3% this year from 2.1% in 2018", Schweitzer said, adding that exports are likely to shrink by 0.5% next year.

    "Since the financial crisis of 2008/2009, the DIHK has not received such pessimistic replies from the companies. Due to the bleak trade outlook, the DIHK cut its 2019 gross domestic product growth forecast for the German economy to 0.4% from 0.6% previously. DIHK forecasts GDP growth of 0.5% for 2020, was mainly due to an unusual high number of working days next year", Schweitzer said.

  • 07:15

    UK economy to be 3.5% smaller with new Brexit deal - NIESR

    The UK economy would be 3.5% smaller with the new Brexit deal compared to continued EU membership, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said.

    In the near term, loosened fiscal policy as well as expected cut in interest rate next year would underpin economic growth.

    The think tank said the economic outlook is clouded by significant economic and political uncertainty and depends critically on the nation's trading relationships after Brexit.

    The economy is forecast to expand 1.4% each this year and next based on the assumption that the terms of EU trade remain unchanged.

    The institute said risks to growth continue to be weighted to the downside, although not as severe as in the previous forecast given the reduced likelihood of a no-deal Brexit.

  • 07:01

    French GDP rose slightly more than expected in the third quarter

    According to the report from Insee, in Q3 2019, GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as the two previous quarters: +0.3%. Economists had expected a 0.2% increase.

    Household consumption expenditures accelerated slightly (+0.3% after +0.2%), while total gross fixed capital formation decelerated (GFCF: +0.9% after +1.2%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes remained dynamic and grew at the same pace as the previous quarter: it contributed 0.5 points to GDP growth.

    Imports bounced back strongly (+1.4% after –0.3%) and exports grew this quarter (+0.3% after –0.1%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: –0.4 points, after 0.0 points during the previous quarter. Changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.1 points after –0.2 points).

    Production of goods and services decelerated slightly compared to the previous quarter (+0.3% after +0.4%). Output in goods stepped back again (–0.4% after –0.2%), while it grew at almost the same pace as the previous quarter in services (+0.5% after 0.6%).

    Output in manufactured goods kept decreasing (–0.4% after –0.5%). Output decreased in all manufacturing sectors except for transport equipment.

  • 06:35

    Options levels on wednesday, October 30, 2019

    EUR/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.1184 (2985)

    $1.1163 (3620)

    $1.1148 (2236)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.1111

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.1082 (2758)

    $1.1043 (2483)

    $1.0997 (4056)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 8 is 73103 contracts (according to data from October, 29) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (4056);


    GBP/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.3039 (2287)

    $1.2970 (1369)

    $1.2924 (1933)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.2867

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.2809 (203)

    $1.2786 (238)

    $1.2755 (185)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 8 is 30702 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3877);

    - Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 8 is 29352 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2100 (3167);

    - The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.96 versus 0.92 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 29

     

    * - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

    ** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

  • 06:30

    France: GDP, q/q, Quarter III 0.3% (forecast 0.2%)

  • 00:30

    Australia: CPI, y/y, Quarter III 1.7% (forecast 1.7%)

  • 00:30

    Australia: CPI, q/q, Quarter III 0.5% (forecast 0.5%)

  • 00:30

    Australia: Trimmed Mean CPI q/q, Quarter III 0.4% (forecast 0.4%)

  • 00:30

    Australia: Trimmed Mean CPI y/y, Quarter III 1.6% (forecast 1.6%)

  • 00:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, October 29, 2019

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.6861 0.35
    EURJPY 120.989 0.04
    EURUSD 1.11112 0.11
    GBPJPY 140.043 -0.06
    GBPUSD 1.28624 0.05
    NZDUSD 0.63548 0.12
    USDCAD 1.30858 0.24
    USDCHF 0.99384 -0.09
    USDJPY 108.88 -0.08
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