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13 November 2019
  • 23:50

    Japan: GDP, q/q, Quarter III 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)

  • 23:30

    Schedule for today, Thursday, November 14, 2019

    Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
    00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation November 3.6% 3.2%
    00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed October 14.7 15
    00:30 Australia Unemployment rate October 5.2% 5.3%
    02:00 China Retail Sales y/y October 7.8% 7.9%
    02:00 China Industrial Production y/y October 5.8% 5.4%
    02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment October 5.4% 5.4%
    04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index September 0.4% -0.6%
    07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) Quarter III -0.1% -0.1%
    07:00 Germany GDP (YoY) Quarter III 0.4% 0.5%
    07:30 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y October -2% -1.9%
    07:45 France CPI, y/y October 0.9% 0.7%
    07:45 France CPI, m/m October -0.3% -0.1%
    09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) October 3.1% 3.7%
    09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) October 0% 0.2%
    10:00 Eurozone Employment Change Quarter III 0.2% 0.2%
    10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) Quarter III 0.2% 0.2%
    10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) Quarter III 1.2% 1.1%
    10:30 U.S. FOMC Member Quarles Speaks    
    13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1689 1687
    13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM September 0.1% 0.1%
    13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, YoY September -0.3%  
    13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y October 2% 1.5%
    13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m October -0.3% 0.2%
    13:30 U.S. PPI, y/y October 1.4% 0.9%
    13:30 U.S. PPI, m/m October -0.3% 0.3%
    13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 211 215
    14:10 U.S. FOMC Member Clarida Speaks    
    14:10 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks    
    15:00 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Testimony    
    16:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories November 7.929 1.6
    17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks    
    17:30 Switzerland Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks    
    21:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI October 48.4 48.4
  • 20:50

    Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, November 14, 2019

    Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
    00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation November 3.6% 3.2%
    00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed October 14.7 15
    00:30 Australia Unemployment rate October 5.2% 5.3%
    02:00 China Retail Sales y/y October 7.8% 7.9%
    02:00 China Industrial Production y/y October 5.8% 5.4%
    02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment October 5.4% 5.4%
    04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index September 0.4% -0.6%
    07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) Quarter III -0.1% -0.1%
    07:00 Germany GDP (YoY) Quarter III 0.4% 0.5%
    07:30 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y October -2% -1.9%
    07:45 France CPI, y/y October 0.9% 0.7%
    07:45 France CPI, m/m October -0.3% -0.1%
    09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) October 3.1% 3.7%
    09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) October 0% 0.2%
    10:00 Eurozone Employment Change Quarter III 0.2% 0.2%
    10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) Quarter III 0.2% 0.2%
    10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) Quarter III 1.2% 1.1%
    10:30 U.S. FOMC Member Quarles Speaks    
    13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1689 1687
    13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM September 0.1% 0.1%
    13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, YoY September -0.3%  
    13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y October 2% 1.5%
    13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m October -0.3% 0.2%
    13:30 U.S. PPI, y/y October 1.4% 0.9%
    13:30 U.S. PPI, m/m October -0.3% 0.3%
    13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 211 215
    14:10 U.S. FOMC Member Clarida Speaks    
    14:10 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks    
    15:00 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Testimony    
    16:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories November 7.929 1.6
    17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks    
    17:30 Switzerland Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks    
    21:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI October 48.4 48.4
  • 19:00

    U.S.: Federal budget , October -134 (forecast -133)

  • 16:13

    AUD/USD off lows but still under 0.6840

    The AUD/USD pair is trading modestly lower on Wednesday. After the beginning of the American session, it recovered from the two-week low it reached at 0.6820 and rose to 0.6833. Still, the bias points to the downside in the pair. 

    Price actions remained quiet following U.S. inflation data and also after the release of the remarks of Chairman Powell to the Joint Economic Committee. He mentioned interest rates are unlikely to change as long as economic growth continues. The US CPI showed mixed numbers, not significantly away from expectations. 

    The U.S. Dollar is posting mix results across the board. The DXY is flat, hovering around 98.30, after reaching earlier a fresh monthly high. US yields today are retreating and limit the decline in AUD/USD. 

    The AUD/USD continues to move within a descendant channel in the short-term. A consolidation on top of 0.6850 would invalidate the bias and favor a consolidation or a recovery. The next resistance is seen at 0.6880. 

    On the flip side, the bearish pressure is likely to prevail as long as AUD/USD holds under 0.6835. Below daily lows, the immediate support lies at 0.6805/10 and then 0.6780. 

  • 15:50

    USD/CAD erases daily gains as oil stages decisive rebound

    The USD/CAD pair rose to its highest level in a month at 1.3270 but lost its traction during the American trading hours as the commodity-related loonie gathered strength on recovering crude oil prices. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.3254, adding 0.17% on a daily basis.

    The Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Mohammad Barkindo, on Wednesday said the fundamentals of the global economy was still strong and noted that there was no sign of a global economic recession. Barkindo further added that oil demand figures in 2020 have the potential for an upside swing to provide a boost to crude oil prices. 

    After dropping all the way down to $56.16 earlier in the day, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained traction and was last seen trading at $57.30, adding nearly 1% on a daily basis.

    On the other hand, the U.S. Dollar Index ignored the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chairman Powell's comments on the economic outlook and extended its sideways grind near the 98.30-mark, allowing the CAD's market valuation to continue to impact the pair's action. The only data from the US on Wednesday revealed that annual inflation in October, as measured by the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), ticked down to 2.3% and missed the market expectation of 2.4% but had little to no impact on the USD.

  • 15:31

    U.S. October CPI won't change the calculus for the Fed in the near-term - TDS

    Analysts at TD Securities expect the Fed to keep rates on hold in the near term, but to ease further in 2020 as economic growth continues to moderate.

    • "Core PCE inflation remains below target and inflation expectations continue to hover below the historical levels associated with price stability.
    • Headline inflation surprised to the upside at 0.4% m/m (0.356% unrounded) in October, lifting the annual rate to 1.8% y/y (TD and consensus: 1.7%). Stronger than expected food and energy prices at 0.2% and 2.7% m/m, respectively, boosted headline prices.
    • We expect the Fed to keep rates on hold in the near term, but to ease further in 2020 as economic growth continues to moderate."

  • 14:59

    OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo: Demand numbers for 2020 has potential for an upside swing

    • Could see sharp supply fall in 2020 from U.S. shale output
    • Fundamentals of global economy remain strong; there is no sign of a global economic recession
    • Confident OPEC+ members will continue with their agreement in 2020
    • Some U.S. oil companies see shale output growth in 2020 only up by around 300,000-400,000 bpd; that it is not as high as OPEC optimistic estimates
    • Saudi authorities have reassured US that Aramco IPO won't affect kingdom's role within OPEC as the biggest producer
    • No one in OPEC+ wants to return to where we came from during oil prices downturn
    • The Aramco IPO won't affect Saudi Arabia's participation in supply adjustments to ensure oil market stability 

  • 14:40

    Fed's Chair Powell: Baseline outlook favorable but noteworthy risks remain - prepared testimony

    • Policy appropriate as long as economy stays on track
    • Sluggish growth abroad, trade uncertainty pose risks
    • Monitoring financial risks that are at moderate levels
    • Price pressures mutes, expectations at low end of range
    • Business debt high, core of financial sector resilient
    • Says he remains concerned by high, rising federal debt
    • Investors risk appetite elevated in some asset classes
    • Fiscal policy support important for economy in downturn
    • Consumption solid; job market, incomes favorable
    • A sustainable expansion of economic activity, strong labor market and inflation near symmetric 2% goal as most likely
    • Persistent below target inflation could lead to slide in longer-term inflation expectations
    • Levels of vulnerabilities and financial system at a moderate level
    • Federal government debt could restrain fiscal policy makers ability to support US economic activity in a downturn

  • 13:59

    UK: Risk for trade in services due to politics – ING

    Timme Spakman, an economist covering International Trade at ING, suggests that there's still a chance that the UK could see an abrupt end to the transition period in December 2020, which wouldn't just be bad for trade in goods as there's a risk that barriers to trade in services could more than double.

    • UK PM Boris Johnson is hoping that a comfortable lead in the polls will help him to secure an outright majority in December’s general election. If he succeeds, we think that will give him the numbers to get his deal ratified by Parliament early in the New Year, potentially enabling the UK to leave the EU at the end of January.
    • But while that would avoid a damaging ‘no deal’ exit early in 2020, there are big question marks over the length of the transition period. This standstill period lasts until the end of 2020, unless the UK commits to paying into the next multi-year EU budget.
    • Ultimately, we think an extension is probably inevitable, but if we’re wrong, the effect on trade in goods and services between the EU and the UK would be similar to that of a ‘no deal’ Brexit.
    • The top three industries that are most dependent on cross border trade in services with the EEA account for 22% of UK GDP. Total UK GDP dependent on cross border trade in services with the EEA is 4.2%.
    • Barriers for trade in services are the same for all EEA countries, which are the EU, Norway, Switzerland, and Iceland.
    • What are the consequences of a 'no deal' exit for these industries? First of all, restrictions in the movement of people make cross border services trade more difficult. However, much more is at play. Unlike with merchandise trade, there are no such things as tariffs levied for the imports of services. But non-tariff barriers for services trade can be detrimental as well. Different standards, permit and labelling requirements, non-recognition of foreign qualifications, and migration restrictions can be major barriers for trade in services.”

  • 13:48

    U.S. consumer prices up 0.4 percent in October

    The Labor Department announced on Wednesday the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4 percent m-o-m in October, after being unchanged in the previous month. That was the highest monthly inflation since March.

    Over the last 12 months, the CPI rose 1.8 percent y-o-y last month, following a 1.7 percent m-o-m gain in the 12 months through September.

    Economists had forecast the CPI to increase 0.3 percent m-o-m and 1.7 percent y-o-y in the 12-month period.

    According to the report, the energy index climbed 2.7 percent m-o-m in October after recent monthly declines and accounted for more than half of the increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index; the gains in the indexes for medical care (+1.0 percent m-o-m), for recreation (+0.7 percent m-o-m), and for food (+0.2 percent m-o-m) also contributed.

    Meanwhile, the core CPI excluding volatile food and fuel costs advanced 0.2 percent m-o-m in October, following a 0.1 percent m-o-m gain in the previous month.

    In the 12 months through October, the core CPI rose 2.3 percent, decelerating from +2.4 percent in the 12 months ending September.

    Economists had forecast the core CPI to rise 0.2 percent m-o-m and 2.4 percent y-o-y last month.

  • 13:30

    U.S.: CPI, Y/Y, October 1.8% (forecast 1.7%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y, October 2.3% (forecast 2.4%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: CPI excluding food and energy, m/m, October 0.2% (forecast 0.2%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: CPI, m/m , October 0.4% (forecast 0.3%)

  • 12:58

    UK posts strong inflation data – TDS

    Analysts at TD Securities note that UK’s core inflation was on top of consensus at 1.7% y/y while headline CPI was a tenth below, although in line with the BoE's forecast of 1.5% y/y.

    • “The downside mainly came from the Ofgem price cap review, not fundamental weakness, so nothing that markets need to take much notice of.”

  • 12:45

    German ZEW survey has signalled a quick end to the recession – ABN AMRO

    Aline Schuiling, the senior economist at ABN AMRO, notes that Germany’s ZEW indicator for economic expectations jumped higher in November as it rose to -2.1, up from -22.8 in November.

    • “The jump in the indicator probably reflects that worries about the outlook for Germany’s exports and industry have eased. Indeed, the details of the ZEW report show that the participants to the survey have significantly raised their expectations about the economic situation in the US, Japan and the eurozone.
    • The ZEW expectations indicators tends to track changes in Germany’s economic growth relatively well. At November’s level of -2.1, it still is below its long-term average value of 21, and the current level would be consistent with GDP roughly stabilising. This would be in line with our scenario for the German economy. On 14 November, the first estimate for Q3 GDP growth will be published.
    • Our (and the consensus) forecast is that GDP contracted by 0.1% qoq during that quarter, which would be the second consecutive quarter of contraction (Q2 was -0.1% qoq as well). This would put Germany in a technical recession.
    • Still, we expect this recession to be neither deep nor long as private consumption, government spending and construction output are expected to expand in the coming quarters, while the negative impact of exports and manufacturing output is expected to diminish. Indeed, we have pencilled in stabilisation in Q4 and modest growth in the first half of 2020.”

  • 12:26

    AUD/USD points to further consolidation – UOB

    FX Strategists at UOB Group note AUD/USD is still facing a period of sideline trading for the time being.

    • "24-hour view: AUD traded between 0.6831 and 0.6857, relatively close to our expected sideway-trading range of 0.6835/0.6865. The underlying tone appears to be on the soft side and AUD could drift lower from here. In view of the lackluster momentum, the strong 0.6810 support is unlikely to be challenged. Resistance is at 0.6860 followed by 0.6880.
    • Next 1-3 weeks: AUD drifted to a low of 0.6832 yesterday before settling slightly lower at 0.6840 (-0.14%). While downward momentum has ticked up, there is no change in our view from Monday (11 Nov, spot at 0.6860) wherein the “current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase”. In other words, we continue to expect AUD to trade between 0.6810 and 0.6910 for a period."

  • 12:05

    U.S. weekly mortgage applications climb

    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. surged 9.6 percent in the week ended November 8, following a 0.1 percent decrease in the previous week.

    According to the report, applications to purchase a home went up 5.1 percent, while refinance applications jumped 12.9 percent.

    Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate rose to 4.03 percent from 3.98 percent.

    “Positive data on consumer sentiment, and growing optimism surrounding the U.S. and China trade dispute, were behind last week’s rise in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate,” noted Joel Kan, the MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. “With rates still in the 4% range, we continue to expect to see moderate growth in refinance activity in the final weeks of 2020.”

  • 11:58

    Slight increase in Eurozone industrial production as downturn moderates - ING

    Bert Colijn, a senior Eurozone economist at ING, suggests that cautious growth in Eurozone production for the second month in a row indicates that the downturn is moderating, but it seems too early to say we've definitely hit bottom. 

    • "October manufacturing surveys indicate continued contraction, albeit at a milder pace. The September production data again confirmed that Germany remains at the epicentre of eurozone industrial weakness. Annual growth in Germany has fallen to -5.3%, far worse than the -2% in Italy and stable production in France. Spain and the Netherlands even saw a slight increase of 0.4% and 0.7% year-on-year respectively.
    • Investor sentiment shot up in November as trade developments seemed to be moving in the right direction. Sure, the chances of a cliff-edge Brexit have fallen, car tariffs are widely expected to be delayed again and China-US negotiations are getting closer to a deal. Then again, nothing is certain and that means that a scenario of harshening global trade conditions over the winter months is still believable. It could, therefore, be quite some time before businesses start to see new orders improve and regain confidence, even in the more positive scenarios imaginable for global trade. Until then, it is unlikely that a trough in the eurozone industrial recession has been reached."

  • 11:40

    Short-term top in USD/JPY? – UOB

    FX Strategists at UOB Group believe USD/JPY could have charted a short-term top in the mid-109.00s.

    • "24-hour view: USD traded in a quiet manner between 108.91 and 109.29 yesterday, relatively close to our expected sideway trading range of 108.85/109.25. Despite the quiet price action, the underlying tone has weakened and the risk is on the downside. From here, barring a move above 109.30 (minor resistance is at 109.15), USD could move lower and test the strong 108.65 support (minor support is at 108.85).
    • Next 1-3 weeks: After breaking above the solid 109.30 resistance and surging to 109.48 last Thursday (07 Nov), USD has not been able to make headway on the upside as it traded sideways over the past couple of days. As highlighted yesterday (12 Nov, spot at 109.05), USD “could not afford to dither as a consolidation below the solid resistance level of 109.75 would quickly increase the risk of a short-term top”. Upward momentum has deteriorated considerably and unless USD can move above 109.30 within these 1 to 2 days, a break of 108.65 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that 109.48 is a short-term top and USD would then likely to trade sideways to lower."

  • 11:18

    SNB's Chairman Jordan: Negative rates, readiness for intervention still necessary

    • Swiss franc remains highly valued
    • Foreign exchange market remains fragile
    • Danger of a worsening international situation remains large
    • Imbalances in Swiss real estate market still persist

  • 10:58

    Global trade is likely contracting and we’re now ‘betting’ on a US-China deal - OECD chief

    Investment and trade growth at the moment are reliant on a deal between the U.S. and China, the secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) told CNBC.

    “Yesterday, President Donald Trump said ‘Yes, maybe we’re close to a deal with China’ — we’re betting on that,” Angel Gurria told.

    “The rate of growth of trade has come down from 5.5% in 2017 to basically flat. In fact, maybe as we speak, trade is going negative, it’s contracting. Investment — as a consequence because of the uncertainty — went from 5% growth to about 1% growth now and it’s slowing down further.

    “Therefore growth has dropped precipitously over a short period of time,” he said.

    Gurria told that “if we continue to take decisions along the lines of more protectionism or more problems with trade etc, if there are more tensions, then the consequences can be even worse.”

    Then, in its “Interim Economic Outlook,” the organization warned that “global economy has become increasingly fragile and uncertain, with growth slowing and downside risks continuing to mount.” It said economic prospects were weakening for both advanced and emerging economies, “and global growth could get stuck at persistently low levels without firm policy action from governments.”

  • 10:39

    ECB: Rate cuts, more QE and looser TLTRO all possible – ABN AMRO

    Nick Kounis, head of financial markets research at ABN AMRO, points out that ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos earlier this month talked up the ECB’s easing options.

    “He said that ‘If necessary, we could cut interest rates further. We could increase the volumes in our asset purchase programme. We could further improve the conditions for our targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the TLTROs. We have definitely not exhausted all our options. We have scope to take further action, and we will take further action should it become necessary’.  However, he added two caveats. He said that the ‘negative side effects (of low interest rates) are becoming ever more pronounced’. In addition, he repeated the ECB’s call for fiscal easing, saying that ‘with interest rates very low for longer, fiscal policy would have a much bigger impact on the economy than would otherwise be the case. Although the ECB judged that recession risk was low, he noted that ‘the real threat at present is an extended phase of extremely low growth, below potential.’ At the same time ‘inflation expectations have recently shown a marked decline.’ Finally, he still judged that risks to the outlook were to the downside despite better news on Brexit and the trade conflict, though the risks were now ‘slightly less’. Overall, we do not expect further easing at the next ECB meeting, though we do think that the central bank will act again early next year as growth and inflation disappoint.”

  • 10:19

    Eurozone industrial production surged unexpectedly in September

    According to estimates from Eurostat, in September 2019 compared with August 2019, seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28. Economists had expected a 0.3% decrease in the euro area. In August 2019, industrial production increased by 0.4% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU28. In September 2019 compared with September 2018, industrial production decreased by 1.7% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU28. Economists had expected a 2.3% decrease in the euro area.

    In the euro area in September 2019, compared with August 2019, production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 1.0% and capital goods by 0.6%, while production of durable consumer goods fell by 0.7%, energy by 0.8% and intermediate goods by 0.9%. In the EU28, production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.9% and capital goods by 0.6%, while production of durable consumer goods fell by 0.1%, energy by 0.4% and intermediate goods by 0.7%.

    In the euro area in September 2019, compared with September 2018, production of intermediate goods fell by 3.9%, energy by 2.6%, capital goods by 1.4% and durable consumer goods by 0.8%, while production of nondurable consumer goods rose by 1.6%. In the EU28, production of intermediate goods fell by 3.3%, energy by 2.8% and capital goods by 1.0%, while production of durable consumer goods rose by 0.7% and non-durable consumer goods by 2.4%.

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Industrial production, (MoM), September 0.1% (forecast -0.3%)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Industrial Production (YoY), September -1.7% (forecast -2.3%)

  • 09:45

    UK consumer price growth slowed more than forecast in October

    According to the report from Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month inflation rate was 1.5% in October 2019, down from 1.7% in September 2019. Economists had expected a 1.6% increase.

    The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.5% in October 2019, down from 1.7% in September 2019. The largest downward contribution to change in the CPIH 12-month inflation rate, between September and October 2019, came from electricity, gas and other fuels as a result of changes to the energy price cap. Further downward contributions from furniture, household equipment and maintenance; and recreation and culture, were partially offset by rises in clothing and footwear prices.

    ONS also said, the headline rate of output inflation for goods leaving the factory gate was 0.8% on the year to October 2019, down from 1.2% in September 2019.  Economists had expected a 0.9% increase.

    The growth rate of prices for materials and fuels used in the manufacturing process was negative 5.1% on the year to October 2019, down from negative 3.0% in September 2019. Petroleum made the largest downward contribution to the change in the annual rate of output inflation. Crude oil provided the largest downward contribution to the change in the annual rate of input inflation.

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Retail Price Index, m/m, October -0.2% (forecast -0.1%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: HICP, Y/Y, October 1.5% (forecast 1.6%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Retail prices, Y/Y, October 2.1% (forecast 2.2%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) , October 0.8% (forecast 0.9%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: HICP, m/m, October -0.2% (forecast -0.1%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (MoM), October -1.3% (forecast -1.2%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) , October -5.1% (forecast -4.9%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Output (MoM), October -0.1% (forecast 0%)

  • 09:15

    US: Headline inflation likely to remain unchanged in October – TDS

    Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the US headline inflation to remain unchanged at 1.7% y/y in October, partly aided by an increase in energy prices, while core inflation should decline a tenth to 2.3% y/y.

    “In particular, we expect core goods inflation to recover m/m, but for core services inflation to slow to 0.2% m/m after four straight increases at 0.3%. Conversely, we expect Chair Powell to largely reiterate the FOMC policy message that monetary policy and the economy remain "in a good place" at the start of his two-day visit to the Hill on Wednesday.”

  • 08:59

    Moody’s downgrade of India’s outlook is ‘erroneous’ - Mark Mobius

    Moody’s decision to downgrade India’s ratings outlook was “erroneous,” veteran emerging markets investor Mark Mobius said.

    Mobius, who has long been bullish on India, said he doesn’t agree with the ratings agency’s assessment that the country’s growth will be subdued. Moody’s said the change in its outlook for India’s ratings from “stable” to “negative” partly reflected lower government and policy effectiveness in addressing weaknesses in the economy.

    “I think Moody’s call was erroneous, I don’t think it was called for because I see tremendous growth coming in India going forward ... I believe that a lot of the reforms are going to really begin to kick in and have a big impact on the economy going forward,” he told CNBC.

    India is undergoing a significant slowdown. Its economic growth hit a six-year low in the April-to-June period, during which the economy grew 5% from a year ago. An ongoing crisis in the finance sector has hamstrung lending and impacted investments, while recent policy reforms have left small-and-medium businesses reeling.India’s economy is also struggling to create enough jobs for its workforce.

  • 08:40

    Fed: Focus on Powell’s testimony – Deutsche Bank

    According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, Powell’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress at 4pm GMT will garner some attention today.

    “It would be a surprise if Powell deviates much from his post-FOMC press conference in which he emphasised that the easing done to date has supported the economy and helped offset some of the external risks stemming from slowing growth. Our US economists do, however, expect the Chair to stress that, given that the balance of the incoming economic data has largely held in, it would take a “material reassessment” of the outlook for the Committee to consider further rate cuts. The House Intelligence Committee will also hold its first public hearings in their impeachment inquiry of President Trump.”

  • 08:19

    US and UK CPI amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

    Danske Bank analysts point out that in the US and the UK, CPI figures for October are due out and will be key economic release for the markets.

    “US CPI core has surprised on the upside in recent months, but we do not expect this to be the beginning of a new trend given the low inflation expectations and look for an unchanged inflation rate at 2.4%. In the euro area, markets will look out for a decision by US President Trump on whether or not he will impose European car tariffs. Latest hints from US Commerce Secretary Ross and EU Commission President Juncker suggested that Trump will postpone his decision yet again into next year, after 'good conversations' with car manufacturers about potential production relocations. Should the tariffs be implemented, it would be a major hit for the already fragile European manufacturing sector. Figures out today will likely confirm that the industrial recession has extended into Q3, although it seems to have stopped intensifying. Fed chair Powell will address the Joint Economic Committee of Congress today. We expect him to reiterate that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate in the absence of further deterioration in the data.”

  • 07:59

    GBP: Staying on caution side of GBP, but keep targeting EUR/GBP higher for 0.8750 - Danske

    Danske Research discusses GBP outlook and maintains a cautious bias but sees a scope for EUR/GBP to recover towards 0.8750 over the coming weeks.

    "EUR/GBP went below 0.86 (to 0.857) on news that Nigel Farage suggests he will be standing down some candidates in the upcoming election. This reduces the perceived risk of yet another indecisive parliament in favour of a conservative," Danske notes. 

    "We continue to stay on the cautious side of the GBP and expect continued uncertainty to eventually push EUR/GBP higher, targeting 0.875," Danske adds.


  • 07:45

    Global oil demand growth to slow from 2025 -IEA

    Global oil demand growth is expected to slow from 2025 as fuel efficiency improves and the use of electrified vehicles increases but is unlikely to peak in the next two decades, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

    The Paris-based IEA said in its annual World Energy Outlook for the period to 2040 that demand growth would continue to increase even though there would be a marked slowdown in the 2030s.The agency's central scenario - which incorporates existing energy policies and announced targets - is for demand for oil to rise by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) on average every year to 2025, from 97 million bpd in 2018. Demand is then seen increasing by 0.1 million bpd a year on average during the 2030s to reach 106 million bpd in 2040.

    "There is a material slowdown after 2025, but this does not lead to a definitive peak in oil use," the IEA said, citing increased demand from trucks and the shipping, aviation and petrochemicals sectors.

    Oil use in passenger cars is, however, seen peaking in the late 2020s as drivers switch to electric vehicles. The IEA expects there will be 330 million electric cars on the road by 2040, up from an estimate of 300 million in last year's outlook. That would displace around 4 million bpd of oil use, it said, compared to the 3.3 million bpd forecast previously

  • 07:30

    RBNZ surprised the market – TDS

    Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, notes that the RBNZ has surprised the market by leaving the cash rate on hold at 1%.

    “16 of 21 analysts were expecting a cut to 0.75% and OIS was ~75% priced for this outcome. We were one of the outliers. Rates were kept on hold because economic developments since the August statement did not warrant a change. The Bank indicated it is prepared to ease monetary policy further noting near term risks were tilted to the downside. On the forecasts, the OCR trough remained at 0.9%, GDP is expected to remain above 2%, the TWI was nudged lower and CPI lifted but a break above 2% not to be sustained. We sense there is no urgency from the Bank to cut the cash rate again anytime soon. We now pencil in the next RBNZ cut for May'20 and a placeholder cut for Q3/Q4'20. In the near term we expect NZ rates to underperform and the NZD to outperform. We have no curve positions on, but our models are telling us steepeners are the way to go.”

  • 07:15

    Germany's consumer price index rose in line with forecasts in October

    According to the report from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), consumer prices in Germany were up 1.1% in October 2019 compared with October 2018. Destatis also reports that the inflation rate - as measured by the consumer price index - decreased again (September 2019: +1.2%). Compared with September 2019, the consumer prices increased by 0.1% in October 2019.

    Energy product prices fell by 2.1% from October 2018 to October 2019. The decrease in energy price thus accelerated (September 2019: -1.1%). The prices of food were up 1.1% in October 2019 compared with the same month a year earlier. The prices of goods (total) were 0.4% higher in October 2019 than in the same month a year earlier. Service prices rose much more strongly (+1.7%) than goods prices (+0.4%) from October 2018 to October 2019. The development of service prices thus had an upward effect on the inflation rate. 

    Compared with September 2019, the consumer price index rose just slightly by 0.1% in October 2019. Month-on-month price increases were recorded, for instance, for footwear (+2.3%) and for clothing (+0.9%). The prices of energy as a whole went down slightly (-0.1%), especially heating oil prices decreased (-0.8%). Food prices (total) fell 0.4% in October 2019 compared with the previous month. Vegetable prices, in particular, were down on a month earlier (-3.8%).

  • 07:00

    Germany: CPI, m/m, October 0.1% (forecast 0.1%)

  • 07:00

    Germany: CPI, y/y , October 1.1% (forecast 1.1%)

  • 06:33

    Options levels on wednesday, November 13, 2019

    EUR/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.1163 (4670)

    $1.1124 (2477)

    $1.1068 (1578)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.1012

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.0993 (3592)

    $1.0967 (3078)

    $1.0932 (3065)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 96243 contracts (according to data from November, 12) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5377);


    GBP/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.2974 (2327)

    $1.2928 (735)

    $1.2899 (2177)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.2844

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.2796 (1651)

    $1.2742 (1480)

    $1.2671 (1501)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 6 is 29877 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (5210);

    - Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 31211 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (2302);

    - The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.04 versus 0.94 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 12

     

    * - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

    ** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

  • 01:16

    New Zealand: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, 1% (forecast 0.75%)

  • 00:30

    Australia: Wage Price Index, y/y, Quarter III 2.2% (forecast 2.3%)

  • 00:30

    Australia: Wage Price Index, q/q, Quarter III 0.5% (forecast 0.5%)

  • 00:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, November 12, 2019

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.68403 -0.13
    EURJPY 120.016 -0.24
    EURUSD 1.10082 -0.22
    GBPJPY 140.028 -0.08
    GBPUSD 1.2844 -0.05
    NZDUSD 0.63278 -0.5
    USDCAD 1.32357 0.05
    USDCHF 0.9931 -0.02
    USDJPY 109.02 -0.02
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