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01.04.2011 12:06

EU session review: Yen declines for seventh day ahead of US data

Data released
07:45     Italy     PMI (March)    56.2    58.2    59.0
07:50     France     PMI (March)    55.4    56.6    55.7
07:55     Germany     PMI (March) seasonally adjusted    60.9    60.9    62.7
08:00     EU(17)     PMI (March)    57.5    57.7    59.0
08:30     UK     CIPS manufacturing index (March)    57.1    60.8    61.5
09:00     EU(17)     Unemployment (February)    9.9%    9.9%    9.9%

The yen headed for its longest losing streak against the dollar since July 2005 and the Swiss franc declined amid speculation that global growth will be robust, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets.
Japan’s currency dropped to a 10-month low against the euro on speculation the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates on hold in the aftermath of the March 11 earthquake, while the European Central Bank begins a round of increases.
“In general, world economic growth is quite strong,” said Lutz Karpowitz, a currency strategist at Commerzbank AG. “The negative impacts on Japan’s debt levels from the earthquake are beginning to hit the yen.”
Large Japanese manufacturers forecast on average that the yen will trade at 84.20 per dollar in the year through March 2012, according to the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey, released today. Almost three-quarters of the responses to the survey came by March 11, the day the magnitude-9.0 earthquake and ensuing tsunami struck the country.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said yesterday the central bank should review whether to reduce its planned purchase of $600 billion in Treasuries, a program known as quantitative easing, because of improving economic data.

EUR/USD holds tight today within the $1.4140/80 range.

GBP/USD fell from $1.6080 to the lows around $1.6005. Later rate recovered to $1.6038.

USD/JPY rose to Y83.85 after it fell for short-time to Y83.30.

The main release comes at 1230GMT, when non-farm payrolls are expected to rise 192,000 in March following the weather-related movements in the previous two months, as indicators such as weekly jobless claims point to continued improvement. Private payrolls are seen up 195,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 8.9% after three straight declines. Hourly earnings are expected to post a 0.2% rise following the flat February reading and the 0.4% January gain.
US data continues at 1400GMT with the ISM data and also Construction Spending. The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rise slightly to a reading of 61.5 in March from 61.4 in February. Regional data already released suggest that the pace of growth accelerated. Construction spending is forecast to fall 0.3% in February after declines in the previous two months on sharp non-residential construction contraction. Weather continued to be a factor in the data
in February. In addition, housing starts fell sharply in February, a negative for residential construction in this report.

01.04.2011 12:31

US: Mar payrolls +216k

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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