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23.12.2010 08:52

Forex: Wednesday's review

The dollar declined to a one-week low against the yen after reports showed U.S. economic growth and existing homes sales increased less than forecast, damping demand for U.S. denominated assets. “Yields are a little bit lower and that is weighing on the dollar-yen,” said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst in Washington at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc., a currency brokerage. “We can tie that back to the slightly disappointing GDP.”
The greenback fluctuated versus its major counterparts after the Commerce Department said gross domestic product rose at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter, compared with the 2.8% pace forecast. The euro gained earlier as German import prices in November climbed the most in a decade.
The Swiss franc strengthened to a record against the common currency for a sixth day on refuge demand linked to the euro zone’s sovereign-debt crisis. “The Swiss franc continues to perform extremely well,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research with online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “When we move to a stronger growth scenario, countries such as Switzerland that have healthier balances will really outperform.” Portugal’s bond rating may be downgraded one or two levels by Moody’s Investors Service after the company warned yesterday of concern that budget cuts will worsen the country’s “sluggish” growth. Greece may have its credit rating cut to non-investment grade by Fitch Ratings within six weeks. The euro has dropped 10.5% so far this year, the biggest loss among the 10 developed nations. The dollar has lost 1.1% and the yen has added 11.5%.
The pound fell versus the euro after a report showed the U.K. economy expanded at a slower rate than previously estimated in the third quarter. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed Britain’s gross domestic product rose 0.7% in the third quarter. That compares with an initial estimate of 0.8%. Second-quarter growth was revised to 1.1% from 1.2%. Minutes of the Bank of England’s December meeting showed policy makers remained split in their decision to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low 0.5 percent and the asset-purchase program unchanged at 200 billion pounds.

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased below a mark $1,3100.

GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased below a mark $1,5400.

USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y83,40-Y83,90.

UK data at 0930GMT includes the latest Index of Services data as  well as the latest BBA Loans for House Purchase.
It is a busy US calendar, starting at 1300GMT with the Building  Permits Revision but heating up at 1330GMT with Durable Goods Jobless  Claims and also Personal Income data. Durable goods orders are forecast to fall 1.0% in November after sharp movements in the previous two months. Boeing reported 17 aircraft orders in November, down sharply from 108 in October. Initial jobless claims are expected to hold steady at a 420,000 level in the December 18 employment survey week, down from the 441,000 level in the November 13 employment survey week. While claims have been on a downward trend, the four-week moving average is
likely to rise in the current week unless claims fall below 410,000.
Personal income is expected to rise a modest 0.3% in November, as payrolls were up only 39,000, the workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours, and hourly earnings growth was flat. However, PCE is expected to rise 0.5% in the month, as retail sales rose 0.8% and non-auto retail sales was up 1.2%. The core PCE price index is expected to rise 0.1% after two flat readings in September and October. At 1455GMT, the Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up slightly to a reading of 74.6 in December, still well above the 71.6 final reading for November. At 1500GMT, new home sales are expected to rise to a 304,000 annual rate in November after dipping to a near record low in October.
Late data then sees the 2130GMT release of M2 money supply data.

23.12.2010 07:35

Stocks: Wednesday's review

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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