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15.12.2010 08:45

Asian session: The dollar rose

The dollar rose against the yen and euro for a second day before data forecast to show growth in U.S. industrial production, backing Federal Reserve comments yesterday that the world’s largest economy continues to recover.
The greenback rose against all of its 16 major counterparts as Treasury yields reached a seven-month high after the Fed maintained a $600 billion program of debt purchasing.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, yen and pound, gained 0.2 percent to 79.587 today, advancing for a second day.
U.S. factory production rose 0.3 percent in November, according to the median estimate of economists in a survey before the Fed releases the data today.
Treasury 10-year yields climbed to as high as 3.50 percent today, the highest since May 14, before retreating to 3.45 percent. They rose as much as 22 basis points yesterday.
Interest-rate futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday showed a 12 percent chance U.S. policy makers will increase the target lending rate to 0.5 percent by March. The probability was zero the day prior.
Demand for the dollar was limited before a report tomorrow forecast to show U.S. initial jobless claims rose last week, adding to signs the labor market will take time to recover.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1,3300.

GBP/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1,5720.

USD/JPY: the pair become stronger in around Y84,00.

UK data includes labour market data at 0930GMT where the median  forecast is for the claimant count measure to fall by 3,000 in November,  leaving the ILO unemployment rate at 7.7% (Oct). Average weekly earnings
ex-bonuses 3m y/y is seen coming in at 2.3%. UK data also includes the December CBI Distributive Trades Survey at 1100GMT.
EMU data includes Q3 unemployment data at 1000GMT.
US data continues at 1400GMT with the Treasury  International Capital Flows data, while at 1415GMT, US industrial  production is expected to rise 0.4% in November on strong utilities  production that should be offset by soft manufacturing production. Factory payrolls fell 13,000 in the month, while auto production jobs fell 2,000. The factory workweek was unchanged at 40.3 hours, while the ISM production index fell to 55.0. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 75.1%. The weekly Crude Oil Stocks data comes in at 1530GMT.
At 1330GMT, US consumer prices are expected to rise 0.2% in November, as energy prices are expected to move higher after rising sharply in the previous four months. Food prices are also expected to rise in the month. AAA reported another rise in gasoline prices in the middle of November from a month earlier. Core CPI is forecast to rise only 0.1%, as pricing power remains very weak. Also at 1330GMT, the Empire State manufacturing index is forecast to rise to a
reading of 5.0 in December after the surprise plunge in November.

15.12.2010 08:41

Forex: Tuesday's review

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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