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26 May 2023

USD/THB could return to the low 33.00 level by year-end if the global risk backdrop holds up – Commerzbank

THB has reversed all of the gains at the start of the year. But economists at Commerzbank believe that the USD/THB pair could return to the low 33.00 level by the end of the year.

Great expectations for THB tempered

“The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is projecting 25mn foreign tourist arrivals in 2023. This will be around 63% of the pre-pandemic level of 40mn in 2019. Nevertheless, it will still represent a notable rebound from 11.2mn in 2022. Even though optimism may be tempered, the influx of foreign tourism and tourism revenue should be a supportive factor for THB.”

“This year’s high of just above 35.40 for USD/THB should provide the immediate barrier near term.”

“If the global risk backdrop holds up and there are no adverse shocks, we could see USD/THB return to the low 33.00 level by year-end.”

 

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