Market news

24 November 2022

NZD/USD slips below 0.6260 on a weaker-than-projected NZ Retail Sales

  • NZD/USD has sensed a marginal selling pressure as NZ Retail Sales have dropped to 0.4% vs. 0.5% as projected.
  • NZ Retail Sales has landed higher against its prior release but might not delight RBNZ policymakers.
  • The RBNZ sees interest rates peaking around 5.5% by September 2023.

The NZD/USD pair has shown a marginal impact of a decline in New Zealand Retail Sales data against the consensus. The Kiwi asset has slipped below 0.6260 after auctioning sideways in the early Tokyo session. The NZ Retail Sales data for the third quarter has landed at 0.4% vs. the expectations of 0.5% but has remained significantly higher than the prior release of -2.3%.

A positive Retail Sales figure might be supportive of the New Zealand Dollar but won’t delight the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The central bank is putting its blood and sweat to curtail inflationary pressures. The price rise index displayed a historic surge in the third quarter and a decline in consumer demand could bring a slowdown in inflation.

A rise in Retail Sales is not going to incentivize manufacturers and service providers to look for a halt in price growth or a decline. This may put more pressure on RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr to continue with extremely restrictive policy measures.

This week, the RBNZ hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 75 basis points (bps). Earlier, the central bank was hiking its OCR by a 50 bps rate. This has pushed its OCR to 4.25%. As price pressures have not displayed any sign of exhaustion nor a peak has been found yet, the regime of an ‘extreme hawkish’ stance will continue further. Also, the RBNZ has provided a peak for interest rates at 5.5% by September 2023.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is displaying a sideways performance as trading activity remained light on Thursday due to the holiday on account of Thanksgiving Day. The risk profile is still positive and has not displayed signs of caution yet.

 

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