Market news

23 June 2022

USD/CAD: Loonie’s profile softer as Fed races to higher terminal rate – CIBC

Analysts at CIBC see the USD/CAD pair trading around 1.29 during the third quarter and rising toward 1.31  by year-end. They consider markets are overpricing tightening this year from the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. 

Key Quotes: 

“A likely 75 bp hike by the Bank of Canada in July, and the potential for another move of that magnitude in September if we don't see enough of an inflation deceleration by then, should be aggressive enough to allow USDCAD to remain around current levels over the next three months.”

“Contrary to market expectations, the BoC is unlikely to send Canada's overnight rate beyond the Fed's destination of 3.25%. Canada’s debtburdened households and mortgage renewals will see rate hikes weigh more on discretionary consumer spending in Canada. That points to a slightly lower terminal rate for the BoC overnight rate, although we're leaning towards a 3% peak rather than our prior 2.75% after the May inflation data.”

“Markets appear to be overpricing both BoC and Fed tightening this year, but comparatively more for the BoC, and that recalibration will lead the CAD to end the year weaker, with USDCAD expected to reach 1.31 by then.”

“All told, look for USDCAD to reach 1.33 in early 2023, before recouping some of that ground further into the year as the USD loses favour globally.”

Market Focus

Material posted here is solely for information purposes and reliance on this may lead to losses. Past performances are not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer.

Open Demo Account
I understand and accept the Privacy Policy and agree that my name and contact details can be used by TeleTrade to contact me about the information I have selected.
23 International Awards
Have a question?

We are ready to assist you in every step of your trading experience
by providing 24/5 multilingual customer support.

Follow us

Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Prior to trading, you should take into consideration your level of experience and financial situation. TeleTrade strives to provide you with all the necessary information and protective measures, but, if the risks seem still unclear to you, please seek independent advice.

© 2011-2022 Teletrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd

Teletrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd is registered as a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) under registration number HE272810 and is licensed by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 158/11.

The company operates in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID).

The content on this website is for information purposes only. All the services and information provided have been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. Teletrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd ("TeleTrade") and/or any third-party information providers provide the services and information without warranty of any kind. By using this information and services you agree that under no circumstances shall TeleTrade have any liability to any person or entity for any loss or damage in whole or part caused by reliance on such information and services.

TeleTrade cooperates exclusively with regulated financial institutions for the safekeeping of clients' funds. Please see the entire list of banks and payment service providers entrusted with the handling of clients' funds.

Please read our full Terms of Use.

To maximise our visitors' browsing experience, TeleTrade uses cookies in our web services. By continuing to browse this site you agree to our use of cookies.

Teletrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd currently provides its services on a cross-border basis, within EEA states (except Belgium) under the MiFID passporting regime, and in selected 3rd countries. TeleTrade does not provide its services to residents or nationals of the USA.

Material posted here is solely for information purposes and reliance on this may lead to losses. Past performances are not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Choose your language/location