Market news

17 December 2021

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls making little progress, 0.6800 opens 0.6850

  • NZSD/USD bull's grit is being tested by the pullback.
  • Bulls looking for a breakout of accumulation for the sessions ahead. 

NZD/USD has been pressured in recent trade and is making hard work of the recovery into the 0.68 area. The bears are taking control to the lows of the session, so far, near 0.6787. However, 0.6770 would be expected to hold if, indeed, the bird is going to correct higher from a phase of accumulation.

The following illustrates the market structure and the potential for a return to the upside once sell stop liquidity is seized by firmer bullish hands. These bulls were looking for a discount to test higher prices before the week is out. 

NZD/USD daily chart

As per the daily chart, we can see what is going on under the hood from the price action. The price has left a double bottom on the chart and we can see the liquidity run, triggering the sell stops. In Wycoff terminology, aka the ''spring''.  This gave firmer buyers sellers to buy from and led to a continuation of higher prices as more longs were accumulated at better prices. 

The buyers would now be looking to find liquidity around the highs of the recent price action, namely, buy stops, where shorts are unwilling to take any more drawdown in losing positions. This gives rise to the potential for a move higher at this juncture which can be monitored from an hourly perspective as follows:

NZD/USD H1 chart

As illustrated, the price is on the verge of a retest of the support where buyer's stops will be located given the prior resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This is regarded as a deep retracement area where the pain of holding onto a losing position becomes too stressful for most to bear. Nevertheless, should the price hold in the vicinity of 0.6770/80, then there is a higher probability that buyers will engage and take the price higher. In doing so, there are prospects of a breakout as per the hourly accumulation as follows:

Market Focus

Material posted here is solely for information purposes and reliance on this may lead to losses. Past performances are not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer.

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