Market news

16 December 2021

Aussie Unemployment Rate big beat supports AUD/USD

Australia’s November labour force survey has been released as follows:

  • Australian Unemployment Rate Nov: 4.6% (exp 5.0%; prev 5.2%). This is a huge beat. 
  • Employment Change Nov: 366.1K (exp 200.0K; prev -46.3K). This is also very impressive. 
  • Participation Rate Nov: 66.1% (exp 65.5%; prev 64.7%). 

AUD/USD reaction

Prior to the data release, the price was undergoing a post-Fed-volatility correction to the downside. However, the data is positive for an otherwise dubious bid in the Aussie. 

The sentiment prior to the data was that a solid post-lockdown momentum through October, as indicated by the lift in payrolls, suggested a robust gain for employment. Nevertheless, the data is very encouraging for the AUD, at least in the meantime. The participation rate was higher so the Unemployment Rate is impressive. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia sees the economy as likely to return to its pre-Delta path in the first half of 2022, but there will not be any rate rises next year which leaves the divergence between the Federal Reserve and the RBA a negative factor for AUD in the medium term. 

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate hikes indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weakening the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

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