November month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders.
The jobs figures become more important after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected the economy to return to its pre-Delta path in the first half of 2022 versus H2 2022 in the November forecasts. Also, recent comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe highlights today’s employment data as he said, “QE outlook depends on inflation data, labor market, the strength of consumer spending.” Adding to the importance were the receding virus-led activity controls during the October-November period.
Market consensus favors Employment Change to jump from -46.3K previous readouts to +200K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely to drop to 5.0% from 5.2%. Further, the Participation Rate may also rise from 64.7% to 65.5%.
Ahead of the event, analysts at Westpac said,
Solid momentum through October, as indicated by the lift in payrolls, suggests a robust gain for employment in November (Westpac f/c: 220k, market 200k); but higher participation may see a lift in the unemployment rate (Westpac f/c: 5.3%).
AUD/USD seesaws around 0.7170 after positing the biggest daily gains in over a week. The Aussie pair’s previous gains could be linked to the market’s ‘buy the rumors, sell the fact’ action following the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. However, recently downbeat comments from RBA Governor Lowe challenge the pair buyers ahead of the event.
It’s worth noting that the RBA’s optimism has recently waned due to the virus resurgence and the latest comments from Governor Lowe seem to weigh on the data’s importance. Even so, firmer jobs report will help the AUD/USD prices to keep the upside momentum targeting a confirmation of the inverse head-and-shoulders bullish chart pattern with successful trading above 0.7170.
On the contrary, downbeat data will asset recently dovish comments from RBA’s Lowe and can drag the quote back to the monthly horizontal support near 0.7090.
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The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
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