Market news

14 October 2021

Australian Employment report gives something for both bulls and bears

Australia’s labour force survey for September has been released as follows:

  • Australia Sept Employment -138.0k s/adj (Reuters poll: -137.5k).
  • Australia Sept Unemployment rate +4.6 pct, s/adj (Reuters poll: +4.8).
  • Australia Sept Full Time Employment +26.7k s/adj.
  • Australia Sept Participation Rate +64.5 pct, s/adj (Reuters poll: +64.7 pct).

AUD/USD implications

On an hourly basis, the price was meeting a meanwhile resistance and the bullish impulse had been decelerating. However, a pre-data spike in the price dissolved the prospects of an imminent retracement although the downside could come back into play following the miss in the headline and the Unemployment Rate worse than the prior report. With that being said, the Participation Rate is likely to blame on that front. For now, the price is consolidated. 

Looking deeper into the data, what is notable is that the number of people at work has recovered almost back to pre-pandemic levels which is encouraging. 

However, from a more in-depth technical analysis, should the 0.74 handle cap, the price could flip back in a 50% mean reversion towards 0.7310 and the neckline of the current harmonic W-formation on the daily chart as follows:

There is more detail on the risks relating to Evergrande and China and the implications for Australia's economy in the following article:  AUD/USD retains second place on the leader board ahead of key jobs data

Key Notes

  • Australian Employment Preview: Significant fall in jobs already priced-in? AUD has room to rise
  • Forex Today: Falling yields spur a dollar sell-off
  • AUD/USD retains second place on the leader board ahead of key jobs data

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate hikes indicate a lack of expansion within the Australian labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

Market Focus

Material posted here is solely for information purposes and reliance on this may lead to losses. Past performances are not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer.

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