FXStreet reports that economists at ING presented their forecasts for US inflation data, which will be released today.
“This week we are likely to see consumer price inflation rise further – our forecast is 4.8% YoY for May with core (ex-food and energy inflation) rising to 3.3% from 3%. For the former, this would mark the highest inflation reading since 2008 – when oil prices surged to $146/barrel – while for the core rate it would be the strongest reading since 1993! This should mark the peak in inflation, though, given much of it is being driven by comparing price levels in a vibrant reopening economy versus those of twelve months ago, when there were sharp falls in prices across the board as companies desperately sought cash. Nonetheless, supply chain issues, rising commodity prices, labour market shortages and rising house prices suggest to us inflation could remain more elevated and be more persistent than the Federal Reserve is publicly forecasting. This is a key factor why we think the Fed will raise the interest rate sooner than 2024.”
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