Market news

8 June 2021

USD/CNY to see more two-way movement, not a downtrend – HSBC

FXStreet reports that in the view of economists at HSBC, the recent measures and comments out of China suggest a policy preference for broad RMB stability.

“We believe the recent comments and countercyclical measures out of China (with some examples listed below) suggest that, while there is no line in the sand, there is still a policy preference for basic stability of the RMB exchange rate.”

“We do not believe the recent downward momentum is the beginning of a long-term RMB appreciation trend. Cyclical indicators are pointing to a likely slowdown of GDP growth and smaller yield advantage for China in 2H21. We expect these cyclical developments to see net FX flows to China moderating in 2H21.”

“We think that China’s broad FX framework has not changed, namely two-way capital account liberalisation is maintained with the aim of achieving a balanced flow. Our base case sees USD/RMB exhibiting more two-way movement and then rise slightly later this year, when China’s outbound investment liberalisation accelerates, likely in 2H21.”

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