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Market news

6 May 2021

Dallas Fed president Kaplan: Would like to begin discussions about tapering sooner rather than later

  • Sees U.S. GDP will grow 6.5% this year with risk to the upside
  • Unemployment could fall below 4% this year
  • Some factors pushing up on inflation near-term will get resolved within 12 months
  • Expects PCE inflation to end this year at 2.25%
  • Since December, when Fed set the substantial further progress bar for taper, we have seen more vaccine rollout and more fiscal aid
  • It is clear Fed will meet the bar for tapering sooner than he thought in January
  • Says he doesn't want to be preemptive but doesn't want to be late either
  • Fed's bond-buying can create excesses and imbalances
  • Will want to give advance notice of bond buy taper and do it gradually
  • Will be much healthier as an economy when we can start weaning from QE
  • Won't prejudge whether taper should be complete before Fed raises rates
  • Expecting to meet standards for Fed rate liftoff sometime in 2022
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