Market news

10 June 2020

USD: Not expecting a change in forward guidance from FOMC - Barclays

eFXdata reports that Barclays Research discusses its expectations for today's FOMC policy meeting. 

“At the June FOMC meeting we expect the Fed to clarify its intentions on asset purchases. At present, the Fed is purchasing Treasury and agency MBS securities to support market functioning and has scaled its purchases back as overall functioning has improved. We expect the Fed will shift its asset purchases from a daily announced rate – currently $4.5bn per day for Treasuries and $4.5bn per day for agency MBS – to a monthly purchase rate of $80bn per month in Treasuries and $60bn per month in agency MBS, as well as shift the intent of these purchases to support an accommodative policy stance. We think these purchases will be open-ended and loosely tied toward progress on the dual mandate.

We do not expect a change in forward guidance at the June meeting since the coronavirus outbreak has apparently delayed the completion of the framework review. Elsewhere, we expect the median FOMC member’s assessment of appropriate monetary policy to include keeping the funds rate at the zero-lower bound through the end of 2022 in the Summary of Economic Projections.

We read FOMC communication as suggesting the Fed has a similar outlook to our own: a sizable loss in GDP in 2020 that takes several years to recover, as well as elevated unemployment and below-target inflation over the three-year projection horizon," Barclays adds.

Material posted here is solely for information purposes and reliance on this may lead to losses. Past performances are not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer.

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