According to Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac, the RBA’s quarterly statement will provide details of the optimistic growth forecast but this week saw a dismal reading on retail sales volumes, which the RBA can only hope is not replicated in the national accounts next month.
“The upbeat RBA narrative could be rattled if we see weak Q3 wages data on Wed and an uptick in Oct unemployment on Thu. On the positive side, risk appetite remains elevated and spec positioning is already bearish. But with US$ having found its feet as the FOMC’s pause narrative was bolstered by strong NFP and services ISM data, AUD/USD ranges seem set to edge lower. The 200dma at 0.6949 remains firmly intact, with the pair near term more likely to spend time between the 50dma at 0.6810 and 100dma at 0.6850.”
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