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30 October 2019

Eurozone economic sentiment index down more than forecast in October

According to the report from European Commission, in October 2019, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) decreased in both the euro area (by 0.9 points to 100.8) and the EU (by 0.9 points to 99.0). Economists had expected a decrease to 101.1 in the euro area.

The deterioration of euro-area sentiment resulted from lower confidence in industry, services, retail trade and among consumers, while confidence improved markedly in construction. The slight decrease in industry confidence (−0.6) resulted from managers' more pessimistic production expectations, while their views on the current level of overall order books and the stocks of finished products remained virtually unchanged. The moderate decline in services confidence (−0.5) was driven by managers' more pessimistic views on the past business situation and demand expectations, while their assessment of past demand remained virtually stable. The decrease in consumer confidence (−1.1) reflected the strong deterioration in households’ expectations about the general economic situation and their future financial situation, while their assessments of their past financial situation and their intentions to make major purchases edged down. The drop in retail trade confidence (−0.9) resulted from more negative views on both the present and expected business situation and, in particular, the adequacy of the volume of stocks. The marked increase in construction confidence (+1.3) was fuelled by managers' more optimistic employment expectations and, to a lesser extent, their assessment of the level of order books. Finally, financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) fell (−7.5), reflecting strong deterioration in managers' demand expectations and their assessments of the past business situation and past demand.

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