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30 October 2019

FOMC amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Danske Bank analysts suggest that today we have a busy schedule ahead of us with the FOMC meeting tonight (at 18:00 GMT) being today's highlight, where Danske Bank analysis team is expecting another 25bp cut.

“Also today, the first estimate of GDP growth in Q3 is due out , which we expect to come out at 1.8% q/q AR. US growth has peaked, as investments are struggling in the current environment and private consumption is not growing as fast as previously. In euro markets, focus turns to ECB's tiering system taking effect today . So far, markets are showing little to no signs of a tiering premium. Tomorrow's STR fixing will shed more light on this. Also, ECB could start buying bonds as part of its resumption of the APP of EUR20bn/ month, with settlement for Friday. Overnight, Bank of Japan will hold its policy rate meeting. We expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep the policy rate and yield curve control unchanged, however, we see them making great efforts to highlight its willingness to act if needed. Markets price around 40% probability of a cut. Chinese official PMI are due over night (Caixin during night to Friday). We expect the official PMI manufacturing to land at a flat reading at 49.8.”

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