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Market news

14 August 2019

Eurozone's economy flirting with stimulus - ING

Bert Colijn, a senior Eurozone economist at ING, notes that the second estimate of GDP growth in the Eurozone confirmed the slowdown to 0.2% QoQ. 

  • "Most countries saw a slowdown compared to Q1, which had been inflated by one-off factors. Germany clearly stood out with a contraction of -0.1%, but Italian output growth also stagnated in Q2. French and Spanish GDP growth slowed too, making the Netherlands the largest economy to maintain its Q1 pace of growth.
  • Eurozone industrial production provided more evidence that industry is currently the economy’s Achilles heel. Production for the Eurozone as a whole plummeted by -1.6% in June. German industry declined by -1.8% in June, but was not the worst performer by a long shot. France saw production decline by -2.3%, while some of the smaller countries recorded even deeper contractions in production. July surveys have painted a worrying picture about production, causing concerns about continued weakness in the third quarter.
  • Today’s confirmation of a German contraction in the second quarter further ignites discussion about a possible broader downturn. With more downside risks down the line like Brexit, Italian political turmoil and trade war uncertainty, that debate seems to be legitimate. The ECB has all but decided on a next stimulus package for September, but the question is whether governments are willing to provide additional support if downside risks were to materialize."

Market Focus
  • UK retail sales rose sharply in July
  • Swiss producer and import price index fell by 0.1% in July
  • Japan financial minister Aso says he hopes markets will calm down
  • China's new home prices firm in July - NBS

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