ANZ's analysts believe that the Australian employment growth will stall in June as most of the leading indicators suggest a sharp slowing in employment growth is due.
“An unwind of election-related employment is likely to impact the June report.
Looking beyond the June report, the ANZ Labour Market Indicator points to the unemployment rate holding around 5.2-5.3% in the second half the year. We don’t think the RBA can make progress toward an unemployment rate of 4.5% or lower without giving the economy additional stimulus.
Some reports suggested the consumer and business confidence data this week was disappointingly soft. We are inclined to be cautious in interpreting the numbers this way. Equally, though, we don’t think ANZ Job Ads was as strong as the gain in June suggested.
All up we don’t think this week’s data provided the ‘smoking gun’ the RBA seems to need to ease as soon as next month. A weak employment report and soft CPI data may provide the impetus.”
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