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Market news

15 March 2019

IEA keeps forecast of global oil demand growth for 2019 at 1.4 mln bpd, supported by solid non-OECD consumption

  • sees oil markets in modest surplus in Q1 2019 before flipping into deficit in Q2 by about 0.5 mln bpd

  • non-OPEC oil output growth will slow from 2018’s record of 2.8 mln bpd to 1.8 mln bpd in 2019

  • OPEC Feb production dropped by 240,000 bpd to 30.68 mln bpd on Venezuela, Saudi arabia and Iraq

  • OPEC compliance with oil cuts was 94 pct in Feb; non-OPEC complying at 51 pct with Russia reducing output very gradually

  • OECD commercial oil stocks rose 8.6 mln barrels in Jan to highest level since Nov 2017, Feb points to sharp drop

  • degradation of Venezuelan power system, vital for oil output, is such that we cannot be sure whether fixes are durable

  • in event of major loss of Venezuela oil supply, OPEC has about 2.8 mln bpd of effective spare capacity

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