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"Since EUR/USD bottomed at 1.0462 in March 2015 it formed a broad consolidation triangle (A-B-C-D-E, green) which could be complete as the market stalled right around its projected E-wave target at 1.1347 (int. 61.8 %) five weeks ago.
Following this view, any bounce should now be capped at 1.1309/28 (minor 76.4 %/daily triangle).
Only a break above the latter would re-open the upside for an extension to the next higher T-junction at 1.1426/50 (pivot/int. 76.4 % on higher scale).
Below 1.1309/28 though, we see a negative bias prevailing and the market at risk of at least testing key-support at 1.1049/37 (int. 76.4 %/daily trend).
A break below the latter would finally challenge the key-T-zone on big scale at 1.0782/10 (int. 76.4 %/pivot).
A break below the latter would resume the long-term downtrend in favor of an extension to 1.0072 and possibly to 0.9652 and 0.9298 (wave 3 projections)".
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