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16.09.2016 06:32

Asian session review: tight ranges before US CPI

The US dollar traded almost unchanged after yesterday's decline on weak economic data from the United States. The US Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell by 0.3% after rising 0.1% in July. Sales rose by 1.9% compared to last year. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services sales declined by 0.1% after falling 0.1% in July. It was expected that total sales will fall by 0.1%, while core sales to rise by 0.3%.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department said that initial applications for unemployment benefits rose by 1.000 to reach a seasonally adjusted 260,000 for the week ended September 10. Economists had forecast that claims will rise to 265 000. This was the 80 th week in a row with claims below 300 000, the longest period since 1970.

These data led investors to doubt that the US economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike in the coming months. According to Fed futures the probability of a rate hike in December is 46% compared to slightly more than 53% a day earlier. The probability of a rate hike at the next meeting, to be held September 20-21, is only 12% compared to more than 15% on Wednesday.

Today at 12:30 GMT data on the US consumer price index will be published. According to the average forecast, prices are expected rose by 0.1% after flat in July.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in the $ 1.1235-50 range


GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in the $ 1.3220-45 range


USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in the Y101.70-10 range

Market Focus

  • Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States
  • Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, November 0.2% (forecast 0.5%)
  • U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, January 227 (forecast 175)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, January -4.9
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