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06.09.2016 12:22

European session review: the euro rose against USD

The following data was published:

(Time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

5:45 Switzerland GDP q / q II quarter 0.3% 0.4% 0.6%

5:45 Switzerland GDP y / y in the II quarter 1.1% 0.9% 2.0%

6:00 Germany Factory Orders m / m in July -0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

7:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index m / m in August -0.4% -0.1% -0.1%

7:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index y / y in August -0.2% -0.1% -0.1%

9:00 Eurozone GDP q / q (final data) II quarter 0.5% 0.3% 0.3%

9:00 Eurozone GDP y / y (final data) II quarter 1.7% 1.6% 1.6%

The euro rose against the US dollar, heading to yesterday's high on overall bearish view of the US currency, statistical data on the GDP of the eurozone, as well as the expectations of the ECB meeting scheduled for Thursday.

The final data from Eurostat showed that the euro zone economy continued to expand in the 2nd quarter, helped by the increase in exports and strong internal demand. However, the growth rate slowed down in comparison with the 1st quarter. Gross domestic product increased by 0.3 percent in quarterly terms and by 1.6 per cent y/y, in line with previous estimates and forecasts of experts. In the 1st quarter the economy expanded by 0.5 percent and 1.7 percent respectively. The largest contribution to GDP growth was from net trade - added 0.4 percentage points to the final result. Demand on the part of the population has contributed 0.1 percentage points. Falling inventories took away 0.2 percentage points of GDP, slowing investment, in contrast to previous quarters. In quarterly terms, the economic growth slowed sharply in France - from 0.7 percent to zero and in Italy from 0.3 percent to zero. In Germany, the rate of expansion eased to 0.4 percent from 0.7 percent.

With regard to the ECB meeting, analysts expect the Central Bank to leave its monetary policy unchanged, but may hint at expanding bond purchase program. At the ECB meeting in July, the head of the Central Bank Draghi said that officials have shown that they can adjust the program of quantitative easing (QE) in the case of need, and there should be no doubt that they can extend the life of QE after March 2017.

The pound rose slightly against the dollar, helped by strengthening risk appetite in response to the rising cost of a number of commodities. In addition, support for the pound have the latest data on the UK, signaling a more favorable economic situation than had been expected after Brexit.

Investors also await the publication of new statistics from Britain - tomorrow industrial production and production in the manufacturing sector. Economists predict that both indicators have decreased slightly compared to June, but rose in annual terms. Also in Halifax will present its house price index, which was closely monitoring the market in the hope of receiving signals in regard to how the instability associated with Brexit affect the housing market. However, on Friday, investors will examine data on foreign trade in order to understand whether the weakening of the pound was able to support exports.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.1168

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair has risen to $ 1.3360

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y103.15

06.09.2016 12:01


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